{"schema_version":1,"assessment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp03_opportunity320_20260801","source_experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp03_full320_20260801","cell_id":"invariant_mode_decomposition_design__astronomy_astrophysics","archetype_slug":"invariant_mode_decomposition_design","domain_slug":"astronomy_astrophysics","title":"Collective-mode gate for compact multiplanet stability screening","opportunity_summary":"Test a bounded modal screening gate that detects coupled orbital perturbations potentially missed by elementwise or pairwise thresholds and triages systems for full N-body integration, which remains the adjudicator.","adopter_authorizer":"A planetary-dynamics study lead can authorize an internal retrospective computational pilot; observing, publication, and reclassification decisions remain with existing review authorities.","scores":{"meaningful_impact":{"score":3,"rationale":"Avoiding incorrect stability classifications and inefficient follow-up could improve population inference and allocation of simulation effort, but the sealed candidate provides no evidence about problem prevalence, classification error frequency, or realized resource loss."},"stakeholder_pull":{"score":2,"rationale":"Planetary-dynamics researchers and observing teams are identifiable potential users, but the packet contains no expressed demand, adoption inquiry, workflow commitment, or evidence that current diagnostics are considered inadequate."},"incremental_advantage":{"score":3,"rationale":"The gate could identify coupled directions missed by elementwise screening and reduce unnecessary full integrations, but improvement in calibration, discrimination, lead time, or compute-normalized utility over full N-body ensembles and established diagnostics is explicitly untested."},"distinctiveness_plausibility":{"score":2,"rationale":"The composition is proposal-specific and testable, but prior art is unsearched and possible overlap with variational, Lyapunov, resonance, chaos, and reduced-order diagnostics is unresolved."},"technical_implementability":{"score":3,"rationale":"A 100-system retrospective computational test is feasible in principle and has explicit halt criteria, yet canonical coordinates, scaling, symplectic consistency, operator construction, posterior mode alignment, conditioning limits, and useful spectral separation remain unresolved."},"adoption_authority_feasibility":{"score":4,"rationale":"The study lead has clear authority for a safe internal computational pilot, while consequential observing and publication uses are appropriately excluded; broader operational adoption would require additional authorities and validation."},"evidence_readiness":{"score":3,"rationale":"The candidate specifies a sample size, withheld labels, comparators, metrics, falsifiers, and rollback conditions, but does not establish availability or representativeness of the simulated systems, validated implementations, compute resources, or finalized modal specifications."},"safety_net_benefit":{"score":5,"rationale":"Full N-body integration remains the adjudicator, prohibited claims and uses are explicit, and failed residual, calibration, conditioning, gap, or drift checks trigger reversion to prior classifications and full ensembles."},"scalability":{"score":3,"rationale":"A computational gate could be reused across many fitted systems, but each case requires variational construction, uncertainty perturbation, numerical validation, and possible recomputation; generalization across architectures and useful compute savings are unknown."}},"score_confidence":"MODERATE","costs":{"first_evidence":{"band_2026_usd":"50K_TO_250K","scope":"Design, preregistration, implementation, execution, and analysis of the 100-system withheld-label retrospective comparison against elementwise thresholds, full N-body classification, and relevant chaos or resonance diagnostics.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["Existing N-body and orbital-fitting software can be adapted rather than built from scratch.","Suitable simulated systems and withheld long-horizon labels can be created or accessed without major licensing costs.","The band includes specialist scientific labor, compute, reproducibility work, and evaluation.","No novel telescope observations or dedicated hardware are required."]},"initial_deployment_startup":{"band_2026_usd":"50K_TO_250K","scope":"Convert a successful research prototype into an auditable internal triage workflow with standardized coordinates, conditioning checks, posterior alignment, logging, documentation, and integration with existing simulation pipelines.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["Deployment is limited to one research group or collaboration.","Existing compute infrastructure and full N-body pipelines remain available.","The gate advises simulation prioritization and does not autonomously control observing or publication decisions.","Material algorithm redesign is not required after the retrospective test."]},"operational_launch":{"band_2026_usd":"250K_TO_1M","scope":"Broader prospective validation and controlled launch across multiple system classes or collaborating teams, including benchmark expansion, workflow integration, governance, training, monitoring, and independent scientific review.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["Launch requires evidence across architectures beyond the initial 100-system benchmark.","Multiple teams must harmonize orbital representations, tolerances, and adjudication procedures.","Existing institutional computing is usable, but substantial specialist labor and additional ensemble simulations are required.","The modal score remains advisory with full N-body escalation available."]},"annual_recurring":{"band_2026_usd":"50K_TO_250K","scope":"Ongoing scientific maintenance, compute, recalibration, drift and conditioning monitoring, audit of escalated cases, software support, and periodic revalidation against full N-body outcomes.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["Operation remains within a research collaboration rather than a large observatory-wide service.","Recurring work includes fractional specialist staffing and simulation resources.","Case volume and full-integration escalation rates are unknown.","No dedicated capital equipment is required."]}},"research_burden":"HIGH","earliest_credible_horizon":"3_TO_12_MONTHS","pipeline_gates":{"recognizable_externally_supportable_problem":{"status":"YES","reason":"The sealed candidate defines a concrete screening failure, observable coupled perturbations, consequential misclassification pathways, and a problem falsifier, although prevalence and magnitude still require evidence."},"identifiable_adopter_or_authorizer":{"status":"YES","reason":"A planetary-dynamics study lead is explicitly authorized to approve the internal computational pilot, with other decision authorities separately preserved."},"distinct_testable_incremental_claim":{"status":"YES","reason":"The modal gate makes a separable claim of improving held-out calibration, discrimination, lead time, or compute-normalized utility over baseline thresholds and the nearest rival."},"bounded_next_evidence_step":{"status":"YES","reason":"The proposed preregistered retrospective test is limited to 100 simulated systems, uses withheld N-body labels and named comparators, and has explicit problem and intervention falsifiers."},"no_unresolved_safety_or_authority_stop":{"status":"YES","reason":"The first step is computational, excludes operational reclassification and observation cancellation, retains full N-body adjudication, and provides explicit halt and rollback conditions."},"implementation_cost_scope_and_range":{"status":"UNCERTAIN","reason":"Broad resource scopes can be bounded, but the packet does not establish dataset availability, compute demand, implementation maturity, collaboration scale, or escalation rates, so deployment ranges have low confidence."}},"blocking_evidence":["Whether coupled perturbation directions reproducibly precede long-horizon failures beyond what elementwise or pairwise thresholds explain.","Whether the modal gate improves held-out calibration, discrimination, lead time, or compute-normalized utility over full N-body classification augmented by established diagnostics.","Whether modal results remain stable under preregistered canonical coordinates, scaling choices, posterior samples, and symplectic consistency checks.","Whether sufficiently conditioned operators, stable mode identities, unstructured retained-mode residuals, and useful spectral separation occur across representative systems.","Whether the method is materially distinct from existing variational, Lyapunov, chaos, resonance, and reduced-order stability-screening approaches.","Whether intended researchers perceive enough workflow pain and value to adopt an additional gate."],"next_evidence_step":"Preregister and run the authorized retrospective benchmark on 100 simulated compact multiplanet systems with withheld long-horizon N-body labels, comparing elementwise or pairwise thresholds, the modal gate, and the nearest-rival diagnostic suite on calibration, discrimination, failure lead time, and compute-normalized utility; reject further development if coupled directions are not reproducible or the gate does not improve at least one prespecified decision metric without unacceptable degradation of the others.","research_questions":["How often do long-horizon failures exhibit a reproducible coupled perturbation direction before an elementwise or pairwise warning?","Which canonical coordinates, scalings, operator constructions, and symplectic checks yield stable and physically interpretable modes?","How sensitive are retained modes and gains to posterior uncertainty, near-degeneracy, mode swaps, integration horizon, and numerical conditioning?","What prespecified improvement and non-inferiority thresholds would justify adding the gate to an existing N-body workflow?","For which system architectures do nonlinear resonance crossing or chaotic transport invalidate the local approximation before it becomes useful?","How does the proposal overlap with or differ from established variational, Lyapunov, chaos, resonance, and reduced-order diagnostics?","Do study leads and observing teams consider mis-triage sufficiently consequential to support prospective validation and workflow integration?"],"recommendation":"PARTNERED_RESEARCH","uncertainty_constraints":["Closed-book assessment provides no evidence of prior-art novelty, prevalence, market size, stakeholder demand, or realized impact.","Local modal behavior cannot be treated as proof of global orbital stability.","Coordinate dependence and Hamiltonian structure constrain physical interpretation until robustness is demonstrated.","Cost bands are resource-equivalent planning ranges with low confidence, not observed prices or point estimates.","The earliest horizon concerns retrospective evidence only and does not imply operational deployment.","Any use outside validated perturbation and time windows is excluded."],"closed_book_prior_art_boundary":"Prior-art status is UNSEARCHED. This assessment makes no claim that the modal gate, its components, or their composition are novel, rare, or absent from existing astronomy and dynamical-systems practice."}