{"schema_version":1,"assessment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp03_opportunity320_20260801","source_experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp03_full320_20260801","cell_id":"invariant_mode_decomposition_design__literature_literary_theory","archetype_slug":"invariant_mode_decomposition_design","domain_slug":"literature_literary_theory","title":"Invariant-mode testing of coupled unreliable-narrator cues","opportunity_summary":"Test whether coupled configurations of narratorial cues yield stable, held-out reader-belief transition modes and whether mode-guided cue-bundle edits outperform isolated-cue edits and a preregistered nonlinear interaction model. The opportunity is methodologically specific but remains conditional on stable state representations, cross-story replication, demonstrated stakeholder need, and unsearched prior art.","adopter_authorizer":"Literary reception or computational-literary researchers could adopt the method; an authorized principal investigator and institutional ethics body must approve participant research, with lawful-text-use requirements governing passage selection and editing.","scores":{"meaningful_impact":{"score":3,"rationale":"If the stated cue-attribution problem is real, the method could reduce fragile cue-level explanations and improve held-out prediction, but the packet provides no evidence of problem prevalence, realized scholarly consequences, or demand beyond the proposed research setting."},"stakeholder_pull":{"score":2,"rationale":"Literary researchers, scholars, and teachers are identified as possible users or affected parties, but the sealed candidate contains no interviews, commitments, observed workflow pain, adoption requests, or other affirmative evidence of pull."},"incremental_advantage":{"score":4,"rationale":"The candidate defines a clear incremental test against isolated-cue edits and a preregistered multilevel nonlinear interaction model, with advantage requiring better held-out prediction or outcome shifts at comparable edit magnitude. The advantage remains hypothetical until tested."},"distinctiveness_plausibility":{"score":3,"rationale":"Separating mode existence from intervention leverage is a coherent and testable contribution structure, but prior art is explicitly unsearched, so distinctiveness relative to reception and computational-literary research cannot be established closed-book."},"technical_implementability":{"score":3,"rationale":"The proposed observables, public-domain texts, consenting participants, held-out stories, and model comparisons make a bounded pilot feasible in principle. Implementability is materially threatened by state-representation choices, cue-coding reliability, nonlinear and recursive interpretation, conditioning, spectral-gap failure, and limited sample information."},"adoption_authority_feasibility":{"score":4,"rationale":"Researchers have a plausible authority path for methodological experimentation through ethics approval, consent, and lawful text use, and the candidate correctly withholds authority to declare definitive interpretations. Feasibility is conditional on obtaining institutional approval and suitable participant access."},"evidence_readiness":{"score":4,"rationale":"The packet specifies observable states, a six-story train/holdout design, two relevant rivals, separate problem and intervention falsifiers, and explicit halt conditions. It does not specify sample size, power, coding reliability criteria, state representations, or numerical acceptance thresholds."},"safety_net_benefit":{"score":5,"rationale":"The proposal excludes profiling and consequential educational or publication decisions, limits claims, requires consent and lawful texts, and provides concrete technical halt criteria plus a rollback to uncertainty-qualified cue-level reporting while retaining raw results."},"scalability":{"score":2,"rationale":"Scaling would require repeated participant recruitment, contextual cue coding, controlled passage editing, ethics oversight, and cross-story and cross-cohort validation. The candidate itself warns that historical, linguistic, and contextual contingency may prevent pooled modes from transferring."}},"score_confidence":"MODERATE","costs":{"first_evidence":{"band_2026_usd":"50K_TO_250K","scope":"Design and execute the preregistered six-story, consenting-adult pilot, including ethics preparation, passage and cue coding, controlled edits, participant recruitment, data collection, rival-model fitting, modal diagnostics, and held-out evaluation.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["Public-domain stories avoid licensing expense.","A modest research cohort is sufficient for an informative pilot, although no sample size or power target is supplied.","Work includes literary-domain coding, quantitative analysis, preregistration, participant compensation, and evaluation labor.","No specialized equipment beyond ordinary research-computing and survey infrastructure is required."]},"initial_deployment_startup":{"band_2026_usd":"50K_TO_250K","scope":"Establish a reusable research-lab workflow after favorable pilot evidence, including coding protocols, edit-quality review, analysis software, data governance, ethics amendments, documentation, and researcher training.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["Deployment means adoption as a non-consequential research method, not institutional interpretation, grading, or profiling.","The pilot code and protocols can be reused but require validation and documentation.","Manual literary judgment and coding-reliability work remain necessary."]},"operational_launch":{"band_2026_usd":"250K_TO_1M","scope":"Launch a broader multi-story, multi-cohort research program with adequately powered comparisons, independent coding, replication, participant operations, drift monitoring, and publication-quality evaluation.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["Launch covers more stories and cohorts than the six-story pilot.","Independent replication or separate validation is included.","Recruitment, coordination, analysis, and contextual editing dominate resource requirements.","No claim of universal reader psychology or consequential deployment is pursued."]},"annual_recurring":{"band_2026_usd":"250K_TO_1M","scope":"Operate an ongoing research program with new texts and cohorts, participant recruitment, cue recoding, ethics and data-governance maintenance, model diagnostics, replication, software support, and reporting.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["Multiple studies or replications run each year.","Context-specific texts require continuing expert coding and edit review.","Human-subject and data-management obligations recur.","The estimate excludes consequential educational or commercial deployment."]}},"research_burden":"HIGH","earliest_credible_horizon":"3_TO_12_MONTHS","pipeline_gates":{"recognizable_externally_supportable_problem":{"status":"UNCERTAIN","reason":"The candidate clearly states a recognizable cue-attribution problem and observable consequences, but its assertion that literary accounts often use fragile cue-by-cue framing has no external prevalence, workflow, or outcome evidence in the sealed packet."},"identifiable_adopter_or_authorizer":{"status":"YES","reason":"Literary researchers are identified as methodological adopters, while principal investigators and institutional ethics bodies provide a defined authorization path for consenting-participant research using lawful texts."},"distinct_testable_incremental_claim":{"status":"YES","reason":"The candidate claims that stable coupled modes and modal-guided bundle edits can outperform isolated-cue analysis, isolated-cue edits, and a preregistered multilevel nonlinear interaction rival on held-out stories and cohorts."},"bounded_next_evidence_step":{"status":"YES","reason":"A preregistered six-story pilot is bounded to four fitting stories and two held-out stories, compares bundle edits, isolated edits, unchanged passages, and the ordinary nonlinear rival, and supplies explicit stability and performance falsifiers."},"no_unresolved_safety_or_authority_stop":{"status":"YES","reason":"The candidate requires ethics approval, consent, and lawful text use; excludes covert manipulation, profiling, and consequential decisions; limits interpretive authority; and provides halt and rollback rules. These are preconditions rather than an unresolved request for unauthorized action."},"implementation_cost_scope_and_range":{"status":"YES","reason":"The pilot and research-only adoption scopes are sufficiently bounded to assign broad resource-equivalent bands, although confidence is low because participant counts, power requirements, staffing, software needs, and replication breadth are unspecified."}},"blocking_evidence":["No sealed evidence establishes how prevalent or consequential isolated-cue attribution is in actual literary-research workflows.","Prior art is unsearched, so the distinctiveness of combining reader-state transitions, spectral analysis, and unreliable-narrator intervention tests is unknown.","No sample-size, power, coding-reliability, state-representation, conditioning, spectral-gap, residual, or replication thresholds are specified.","No empirical evidence shows that any well-conditioned transition or cross-story-stable coupled direction exists.","No evidence shows that modal-guided bundle edits outperform isolated-cue edits or the preregistered nonlinear interaction rival at comparable edit magnitude.","No adopter inquiry demonstrates that literary researchers would accept the added coding, experimental, and interpretive burden."],"next_evidence_step":"Before any consequential use, preregister and run the authorized six-public-domain-story pilot with consenting adults: fit candidate transitions on four stories, then on two held-out stories compare modal-guided cue-bundle edits, equal-magnitude isolated-cue edits, unchanged passages, and predictions from the multilevel nonlinear interaction rival. Reject further modal development if the representation is ill-conditioned, lacks the preregistered spectral gap, has structured held-out residuals, fails cross-story replication, or does not outperform the rival and isolated-cue conditions.","research_questions":["Do literary researchers encounter consequential failures from isolated-cue attribution often enough to justify the added method burden?","What prior work already combines coupled reader-response modeling, spectral or modal decomposition, unreliable narration, and controlled textual interventions?","Which preregistered reader-state representations produce reliable measurements without converting scale artifacts into apparent modes?","What sample size and story diversity are needed to distinguish stable coupled directions from story identity, cohort composition, and rating-scale structure?","Can independent coders achieve acceptable reliability for cue intensities and comparable edit magnitudes while preserving contextual meaning?","Do candidate modes replicate across held-out stories, languages, historical contexts, and reader cohorts without unstable labels near eigenvalue degeneracy?","Do modal-guided bundle edits improve held-out prediction or shift reader outcomes beyond isolated-cue edits and the nonlinear interaction rival?","Would prospective adopters use this method under its local, non-authoritative interpretation limits?","What numerical conditioning, spectral-gap, residual, drift, and replication thresholds should trigger halt or rollback?"] ,"recommendation":"PRIOR_ART_RESEARCH","uncertainty_constraints":["Closed-book assessment cannot establish problem prevalence, stakeholder demand, world novelty, existing methodological precedents, market size, or realized impact.","The claimed opportunity exists only if a preregistered reader-state representation yields a well-conditioned and cross-story-stable local transition.","Recursive and context-dependent literary interpretation limits any inference from predictive modes to invariant textual meaning, authorial intention, or universal reader psychology.","Cost bands are low-confidence resource-equivalent estimates because cohort size, power, staffing, coding intensity, recruitment channel, and replication scale are absent.","Ethics approval, informed consent, lawful text use, and non-consequential reporting remain mandatory.","Mode labels may be unusable when eigenvalues are close, residuals remain structured, or drift undermines local validity."],"closed_book_prior_art_boundary":"Prior art is explicitly marked UNSEARCHED. This assessment therefore makes no claim that the reader-state transition, eigenanalysis, coupled-cue model, or held-out intervention design is novel, rare, prevalent, or absent from literary reception, computational literary studies, psycholinguistics, or adjacent research. Distinctiveness and contribution claims require external research."}