{"schema_version":1,"assessment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp03_opportunity320_20260801","source_experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp03_full320_20260801","cell_id":"invariant_mode_decomposition_design__sport_science","archetype_slug":"invariant_mode_decomposition_design","domain_slug":"sport_science","title":"Shadow evaluation of concealed coordination instability in return-to-sport testing","opportunity_summary":"Evaluate whether phase-transition modes derived from instrumented cutting and landing trials reveal repeatable, safety-relevant coordination instability beyond ordinary return-to-sport criteria and a direct multivariable prediction rival. The proposal is technically bounded and safety-conscious, but demand, prevalence, causal modifiability, prior-art distinctiveness, and real-world incremental value remain unverified.","adopter_authorizer":"Sports-medicine and rehabilitation programs are the prospective adopters; the treating clinician retains clearance and training authority, while each athlete controls consent and participation.","scores":{"meaningful_impact":{"score":4,"rationale":"Avoiding false reassurance or unnecessarily delayed return could materially improve athlete safety and rehabilitation targeting. Impact remains conditional because the candidate supplies no evidence for prevalence, recurrence reduction, or the mode's causal role."},"stakeholder_pull":{"score":3,"rationale":"Clinicians, athletes, rehabilitation staff, and teams have recognizable interests in safer clearance, and the affected decision is explicit. No sealed evidence establishes unmet-demand intensity, willingness to adopt, workflow acceptance, or purchasing commitment."},"incremental_advantage":{"score":3,"rationale":"The phase-transition operator and stability interpretation provide a testable increment over marginal thresholds and direct multivariable prediction. No held-out result shows better reconstruction, prognostic discrimination, rehabilitation targeting, or clinical decisions."},"distinctiveness_plausibility":{"score":3,"rationale":"The composition of phase transitions, invariant modes, stability checks, and mode-targeted rehabilitation is internally differentiable from the stated rivals. Prior art is explicitly unsearched, so scientific or implementation distinctiveness cannot be affirmed."},"technical_implementability":{"score":3,"rationale":"The candidate specifies measurements, repeated sessions, decomposition checks, comparators, and suspension thresholds, making a shadow study plausible. Ill-conditioning, non-diagonalizability, absent spectral gaps, nonlinear task dependence, preprocessing sensitivity, and limited sample size could defeat implementation."},"adoption_authority_feasibility":{"score":4,"rationale":"The treating clinician's authority, athlete consent, excluded actions, and rollback to ordinary assessment are explicit. Clinical adoption would still require evidence, governance, workflow agreement, and safeguards against team misuse."},"evidence_readiness":{"score":3,"rationale":"A preregistered two-session shadow study with named comparisons and falsifiers is ready to specify. Approximately 30 athletes may support repeatability and reconstruction analyses but is unlikely by itself to resolve uncommon recurrence outcomes, causal mechanism, or generalizability."},"safety_net_benefit":{"score":4,"rationale":"Shadow mode, clinician-controlled testing, symptom-based stopping, prohibited clearance use, model-quality suspension rules, and ordinary-care rollback provide a strong research safety net. Residual risks include anxiety, privacy misuse, false reassurance, and downstream extrapolation."},"scalability":{"score":2,"rationale":"The approach depends on instrumented cutting and landing trials, synchronized multivariable time series, repeated sessions, specialized modeling, quality checks, and clinician interpretation. The candidate provides no evidence that these requirements can be standardized economically across sites or lower-instrumentation settings."}},"score_confidence":"MODERATE","costs":{"first_evidence":{"band_2026_usd":"50K_TO_250K","scope":"Preregister, recruit, and execute the approximately 30-athlete, two-session shadow study; process instrumented kinematic, kinetic, and muscle-activation data; fit all three approaches; and analyze repeatability, reconstruction, quality failures, and bounded prognostic signals.","confidence":"MODERATE","assumptions":["An equipped biomechanics or sports-medicine partner already has most sensing and testing infrastructure.","The band includes research and clinical labor, athlete coordination, data processing, software, governance, and analysis.","It excludes a sufficiently powered trial of reinjury recurrence or a controlled rehabilitation intervention."]},"initial_deployment_startup":{"band_2026_usd":"250K_TO_1M","scope":"Prepare a single-site, clinician-supervised research deployment after favorable shadow evidence, including robust software, workflow integration, equipment adaptation, security, documentation, staff training, and prospective validation planning.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["The site has compatible testing space and core instrumentation.","The model remains advisory and does not independently determine clearance.","Compliance classification, integration requirements, and hardware replacement needs are unresolved."]},"operational_launch":{"band_2026_usd":"1M_TO_5M","scope":"Launch a controlled multi-site clinical evaluation with harmonized acquisition, calibration, quality assurance, privacy controls, clinician training, monitoring, and enough follow-up to test transportability and safety-relevant outcomes.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["Multiple clinical and sports-science partners must coordinate protocols and data governance.","Launch includes prospective evaluation and monitoring rather than routine unrestricted clearance use.","Outcome follow-up, site heterogeneity, equipment variation, and compliance work are major resource drivers."]},"annual_recurring":{"band_2026_usd":"250K_TO_1M","scope":"Operate and monitor an initial multi-site program, including technical and clinical staff, sensor maintenance, calibration, secure storage, software support, drift surveillance, audits, retraining review, and outcome follow-up.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["Testing volume is moderate and limited to selected return-to-sport cases.","Core equipment is maintained rather than replaced annually.","Recurring compliance, data-access, and partner-coordination burdens remain uncertain."]}},"research_burden":"HIGH","earliest_credible_horizon":"12_TO_36_MONTHS","pipeline_gates":{"recognizable_externally_supportable_problem":{"status":"UNCERTAIN","reason":"The sealed candidate gives a coherent problem and consequence, but supplies no external evidence that concealed repeatable modes occur often enough or add safety-relevant information in athletes who pass ordinary criteria."},"identifiable_adopter_or_authorizer":{"status":"YES","reason":"Sports-medicine and rehabilitation programs can adopt the assessment, treating clinicians retain clearance and training authority, and athletes retain consent authority."},"distinct_testable_incremental_claim":{"status":"YES","reason":"The proposal can be compared with ordinary criteria and a direct multivariable model on repeatability, held-out reconstruction, prognostic signal, and quality-rule failures."},"bounded_next_evidence_step":{"status":"YES","reason":"The approximately 30-athlete, two-session preregistered shadow study is bounded, leaves clearance unchanged, and can reject the approach if modes are irreproducible, ill-conditioned, residual-dominated, or non-incremental."},"no_unresolved_safety_or_authority_stop":{"status":"YES","reason":"The first step preserves informed consent and clinician authority, prohibits clearance use, defines athlete-level stopping rules, suspends invalid models, and reverts decisions to ordinary assessment."},"implementation_cost_scope_and_range":{"status":"UNCERTAIN","reason":"The shadow-study scope supports a broad research-cost band, but the candidate does not specify existing equipment, software integration, compliance classification, staffing model, site count, or operational testing volume sufficiently to validate deployment ranges."}},"blocking_evidence":["Cross-session repeatability of the same concerning modes under controlled variation in speed, fatigue, preprocessing, and measurement conditions.","Acceptable conditioning, spectral separation, diagonalizability or suitable alternative representation, residual behavior, and drift performance on held-out data.","Incremental held-out reconstruction or safety-relevant prognostic information beyond ordinary criteria and the direct multivariable rival.","Prospective association with prespecified loading, loss-of-control, or recurrence outcomes in a sample and follow-up adequate for those claims.","Controlled evidence that clinician-approved mode-targeted rehabilitation changes the prespecified mode and improves relevant outcomes before any causal or clearance use.","Structured prior-art evidence distinguishing the proposal from existing dynamic-stability, coordination, system-identification, and return-to-sport methods.","Clinician and athlete evidence on interpretability, acceptability, privacy, workflow burden, and responses to uncertain or discordant results."],"next_evidence_step":"Run the authorized preregistered shadow-mode study on approximately 30 consenting athletes across two standardized sessions, with no influence on clearance. Compare the modal method against ordinary return-to-sport criteria and a direct multivariable model using held-out reconstruction, cross-session repeatability, and a prespecified exploratory loading or control signal; reject or redesign the method if modes are not repeatable, fail conditioning, spectral-gap, residual, or drift thresholds, or show no incremental signal.","research_questions":["Do coupled modes repeat across sessions after accounting for task speed, fatigue, preprocessing, and sensor uncertainty?","Does the modal representation improve held-out reconstruction or safety-relevant prognostic performance over ordinary criteria and direct multivariable prediction?","How often do identifiability, conditioning, spectral-gap, residual, nonlinearity, or drift rules make the interpretation inadmissible?","Are detected modes stable enough across tasks and sites to support a bounded clinical interpretation without extrapolation?","Can mode-targeted rehabilitation change modal gain or amplitude without worsening another mode or shifting load elsewhere?","What existing methods share the operator, modal-stability, or rehabilitation-targeting elements, and what contribution remains genuinely distinct?","Will clinicians and athletes accept the added testing burden and uncertainty under consent, privacy, and clinician-override safeguards?"],"recommendation":"PARTNERED_RESEARCH","uncertainty_constraints":["The assessment is closed-book and does not establish prevalence, market size, prior art, realized impact, or exact cost.","The candidate is a hypothesis; modal association, predictive increment, intervention responsiveness, and recurrence reduction are separate claims.","Approximately 30 athletes across two sessions cannot by itself establish an injury mechanism or recurrence reduction.","Local linear modes may not remain valid across tasks, fatigue states, recovery stages, athletes, equipment, or sites.","Cost bands are resource-equivalent planning ranges based on stated scope, not observed vendor, site, labor, or compliance costs.","High-stakes clearance use remains outside scope until prospective and controlled evidence resolves false-positive and false-reassurance risks."],"closed_book_prior_art_boundary":"Prior-art status is explicitly UNS​EARCHED in the sealed candidate. This assessment treats the proposed composition as internally differentiable only from its stated baseline and nearest rival; it makes no claim that the operator, invariant-mode analysis, stability interpretation, quality checks, or mode-targeted rehabilitation are novel, uncommon, or unavailable elsewhere."}