{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp03_full320_20260801","cell_id":"deadweight_loss_reduction__marine_science","trajectory_id":"R","attempt_index":0,"archetype_slug":"deadweight_loss_reduction","domain_slug":"marine_science","decision":"CANDIDATE","problem_id":"stranded_oceanographic_research_vessel_days","causal_lever_id":"conditional_transfer_of_cancelled_vessel_allocations","proposal":{"problem":"Project-specific, nontransferable oceanographic research-vessel allocations may leave scarce ship-days unused after cancellations even while scientifically reviewed, operationally ready cruises remain blocked. The independently testable problem is simultaneous idle capacity and unmet qualified demand attributable to allocation rules rather than weather, mechanical failure, permits, geographic incompatibility, or genuine fleet scarcity.","actors_substrate":["Oceanographic vessel operators and crews","Marine-science investigators and institutions","Ship-time allocation and peer-review bodies","Research funders","Safety and environmental regulators","Communities and ecosystems exposed to cruise activity"],"observable_state":"Within a defined fleet and scheduling period, awarded ship-days are cancelled or released too late for reassignment, vessels have avoidable idle days, and qualified projects seeking compatible days cannot use them.","consequence":"Research opportunities, funded personnel time, seasonal observations, and vessel capacity are lost without a corresponding protective benefit.","affected_objective":"Increase completed, qualified marine-science observations per available vessel-day while preserving safety, environmental compliance, scientific merit, and fair access.","structural_mapping":[{"archetype_element":"Value-blocking wedge","domain_realization":"Project-specific nontransferability, fixed reassignment cutoffs, or duplicative approval prevents reuse of cancelled ship-days.","claim_kind":"HYPOTHESIS"},{"archetype_element":"Foregone mutually beneficial activity","domain_realization":"A compatible, reviewed project would accept a released slot and the operator could sail it, yet the cruise does not occur.","claim_kind":"HYPOTHESIS"},{"archetype_element":"Protected purpose","domain_realization":"Scientific review, vessel and crew safety, environmental authorization, geographic feasibility, and equitable access remain binding.","claim_kind":"INFERENCE"},{"archetype_element":"Avoidable distortion","domain_realization":"The assignment rule blocks reassignment beyond what those protections require.","claim_kind":"HYPOTHESIS"},{"archetype_element":"Redesign lever","domain_realization":"Allow conditional transfer of released days to a prequalified standby pool using transparent compatibility and priority rules.","claim_kind":"HYPOTHESIS"},{"archetype_element":"Incidence and behavioral response","domain_realization":"Reallocation may favor well-resourced, rapidly deployable teams or induce strategic late release unless notice and access rules are designed accordingly.","claim_kind":"HYPOTHESIS"},{"archetype_element":"Bounded reversibility","domain_realization":"Test the rule on one vessel and scheduling season, with automatic expiry and immediate safety vetoes.","claim_kind":"INFERENCE"}],"component_map":[{"component":"Distortion Map","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Separate idle days caused by allocation rules from weather, breakdowns, permitting, mobilization, and route incompatibility."},{"component":"Protected Constraint Safeguard","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Retain all scientific, safety, environmental, crew-rest, and voyage-feasibility gates."},{"component":"Surplus Estimate","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Estimate recoverable vessel-days, observations, avoided remobilization loss, and project value as ranges."},{"component":"Affected-Party Incidence Map","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Record effects on original awardees, standby teams, crews, operators, funders, communities, and ecosystems."},{"component":"Redesign Lever","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Conditional reassignment of formally released days to compatible prequalified projects."},{"component":"Distributional Review","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Test whether rapid-deployment requirements systematically exclude small, remote, or under-resourced institutions."},{"component":"Behavioral Response Model","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Model strategic release timing, overapplication, standby nonappearance, schedule displacement, and induced demand."},{"component":"Implementation Boundary","status":"direct","domain_realization":"One vessel, one season, a small number of released slots, and projects already passing defined review gates."},{"component":"Monitoring and Rebound Check","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Track utilized days, safety events, permit deviations, crew burden, cancellations, access distribution, and displaced work."},{"component":"Rollback or Adjustment Rule","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Suspend reassignment after any safety or permit breach and revert at pilot expiry unless renewal criteria are met."},{"component":"Cost–Benefit Assessment Frame","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Compare ordinary allocation with the pilot on research value, operating costs, risk, administrative burden, and distribution."},{"component":"Price-Wedge Diagnostic","status":"omitted","domain_realization":"Document that money price is not the hypothesized binding wedge; do not auction access."},{"component":"Friction Source Breakdown","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Attribute each stranded day to allocation, approval, notice, mobilization, geography, equipment, weather, or mechanical causes."},{"component":"Compensating Adjustment Plan","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Provide minimum notice, mobilization support, and monitored priority rules if standby eligibility disadvantages less-resourced teams."},{"component":"Legitimacy and Authority Review","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Confirm who may reassign awarded days and preserve regulator, vessel-master, and operator vetoes."},{"component":"Sensitivity Analysis","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Vary assumed project value, readiness, mobilization cost, cancellation probability, and attribution of idle days."},{"component":"Pilot or Sunset Path","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Use an automatically expiring seasonal pilot with predefined continuation criteria."}],"mechanism_dispositions":[{"slug":"congestion_or_capacity_pricing_adjustment","disposition":"considered_rejected","contribution_type":"NONE","adaptation_or_rejection":"Ship-day value is multidimensional and access is merit- and safety-gated; dynamic pricing would not repair nontransferability and could worsen inequity.","counterfactual_removal":"Removal does not change the causal chain."},{"slug":"cost_benefit_assessment_protocol","disposition":"selected_supporting","contribution_type":"TEST_DESIGN","adaptation_or_rejection":"Compare recovered research value with mobilization, administration, risk, and distributional costs using ranges.","counterfactual_removal":"The pilot could run, but its welfare claim and continuation decision would be poorly disciplined."},{"slug":"distortion_reduction_review","disposition":"selected_load_bearing","contribution_type":"CORE_CAUSAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Diagnose whether allocation rules, rather than physical or protective constraints, cause stranded days.","counterfactual_removal":"There would be no defensible basis for treating unused days as avoidable loss."},{"slug":"impact_assessment_table","disposition":"selected_supporting","contribution_type":"SAFETY_GUARDRAIL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Track party-specific gains, burdens, protected constraints, and halt signals.","counterfactual_removal":"Aggregate utilization could conceal unequal access or transferred risk."},{"slug":"matching_improvement_program","disposition":"selected_supporting","contribution_type":"OPERATIONAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Match released slots only to prequalified projects compatible in region, season, equipment, crew, and permits.","counterfactual_removal":"Transferability alone would not reliably turn a released slot into a feasible cruise."},{"slug":"permit_or_approval_streamlining","disposition":"considered_rejected","contribution_type":"NONE","adaptation_or_rejection":"Cruise-specific substantive approvals are treated as hard gates, not presumed procedural waste.","counterfactual_removal":"The proposed allocation pilot remains intact."},{"slug":"price_control_redesign","disposition":"incompatible","contribution_type":"NONE","adaptation_or_rejection":"No administered price control is posited.","counterfactual_removal":"No effect."},{"slug":"quota_or_allocation_rule_review","disposition":"selected_load_bearing","contribution_type":"CORE_CAUSAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Keep total safe vessel capacity fixed while revising the rule assigning released capacity.","counterfactual_removal":"The hypothesized nontransferability wedge would remain."},{"slug":"regulatory_simplification_pilot","disposition":"selected_load_bearing","contribution_type":"TEST_DESIGN","adaptation_or_rejection":"Adapt to a walled-off allocation-rule pilot with unchanged substantive safeguards and automatic expiry.","counterfactual_removal":"Evidence would require an unjustified system-wide change or remain observational."},{"slug":"sunset_clause_review","disposition":"considered_rejected","contribution_type":"NONE","adaptation_or_rejection":"The pilot already expires; automatic lapse of the fleet's standing allocation regime would create scheduling instability.","counterfactual_removal":"Pilot rollback remains supplied by its own expiry."},{"slug":"tariff_fee_or_toll_redesign","disposition":"incompatible","contribution_type":"NONE","adaptation_or_rejection":"No authority-imposed monetary charge is the proposed wedge.","counterfactual_removal":"No effect."}],"causal_chain":["A project-specific allocation is cancelled or released.","The standing rule prevents timely conditional transfer despite compatible qualified demand.","A vessel-day remains idle or the ready project loses its observation window.","A bounded transfer rule exposes released days to a prequalified compatibility pool.","Protected scientific, safety, environmental, and operational gates remain mandatory.","More otherwise-stranded days produce qualified cruises if the allocation wedge is causal."],"baseline":"Continue annual project-specific assignment, handling cancellations ad hoc; unused days remain idle when ordinary reassignment cannot be completed.","nearest_rival":"Improve cancellation forecasting and informal schedule matching without changing transfer authority; this is preferable if late information, not the allocation rule, is binding.","authority_safety":{"affected_parties":["Original awardees","Standby applicants","Vessel operators and crews","Funders and allocation bodies","Regulators","Affected communities and marine ecosystems"],"decision_authority":"The vessel operator and ship-time allocation body may authorize a scoped pilot within their mandates; the vessel master and applicable safety or environmental authorities retain independent vetoes.","authorized_first_step":"Pilot reassignment of at most two formally released slots on one vessel during one season, limited to already reviewed, permit-compatible projects, with results compared against matched historical or contemporaneous baseline slots.","excluded_actions":["Waiving safety, environmental, crew-rest, or scientific-review requirements","Auctioning ship time","Reassigning an unreleased award","Changing total safe operating capacity","Sailing without vessel-master and regulator approval"],"halt_rollback":"Halt on any safeguard breach, material crew-risk increase, permit deviation, or displacement of an unreleased award; restore the ordinary rule immediately, and let the pilot expire unless predefined utilization, safety, and equity criteria are satisfied."}},"negative_tests":{"strongest_counterevidence":"Most apparently idle days may be irrecoverable because of weather, mechanical failure, geography, seasonality, equipment configuration, crew limits, or project-specific permits rather than allocation rules.","analogy_break":"Research-vessel days are not fungible market slots: scientific windows, routes, equipment, crews, and permits can make nominally available supply unusable by waiting projects.","failure_condition":"The pilot increases administrative churn, strategic behavior, crew burden, inequitable access, or environmental risk more than it recovers usable research days.","problem_falsifier":"After cause-coding cancellations, there are no material cases where a vessel was operationally available and compatible qualified demand existed but the allocation rule alone blocked reuse.","intervention_falsifier":"Such blocked cases exist, but conditional transfer does not significantly increase completed qualified vessel-days relative to baseline, or it violates a protected safety, environmental, scientific, or equity threshold.","risks":["Pressure to relabel substantive safeguards as delay","Advantage to institutions able to mobilize quickly","Strategic late cancellation or speculative standby applications","Crew fatigue and maintenance compression","Permit or community-consultation mismatch","Overvaluing utilization while undervaluing scientific quality"]},"null_rationale":null,"classification":{"candidate_kind":"TESTABLE_CONJECTURE","prior_art_status":"UNSEARCHED","evidence_maturity":"HYPOTHESIS"},"revision_change_log":{"revision_kind":"ORIGINAL","prior_problem_id":null,"prior_causal_lever_id":null,"problem_changed":false,"causal_lever_changed":false,"conceptual_changes":[],"operational_changes":[],"repairs_addressed":[]},"confidence":0.67,"generator_notes":"Closed-book structural inference. The packet supplies no empirical evidence that allocation rules actually strand research-vessel days, so the diagnosis and expected effect remain hypotheses."}