{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp03_full320_20260801","cell_id":"deadweight_loss_reduction__physics","trajectory_id":"R","attempt_index":0,"archetype_slug":"deadweight_loss_reduction","domain_slug":"physics","decision":"CANDIDATE","problem_id":"rigid_shared_instrument_time_allocation","causal_lever_id":"protected_dynamic_instrument_slot_reallocation","proposal":{"problem":"HYPOTHESIS: At shared physics facilities, inflexible proposal-cycle allocations and nontransferable instrument slots can leave time unused after cancellations or readiness failures while qualified, ready experiments remain blocked. The independently recognizable problem is simultaneous recoverable idle capacity and unmet experiment demand caused by the allocation rule rather than by physical scarcity alone.","actors_substrate":["shared physics facility management","beamline or instrument scientists","allocation committee","scheduled experiment teams","waitlisted or short-notice-ready teams","safety and access officers","funders and protected-access user groups"],"observable_state":"Unused instrument-hours following cancellations or failed readiness checks coexist with safety-cleared experiments that could run, while reallocation is prevented or delayed by fixed-cycle entitlements (HYPOTHESIS).","consequence":"Perishable facility capacity is lost, experiments are delayed, and scientific opportunity is foregone without advancing the allocation rule's legitimate safety, merit, or access purposes (INFERENCE).","affected_objective":"Increase scientifically useful instrument-hours and reduce delay while preserving safety, scientific-merit review, equitable access, and protected user allocations.","structural_mapping":[{"archetype_element":"value-blocking wedge","domain_realization":"Nontransferable time awards, coarse proposal cycles, and weak cancellation-release rules prevent qualified ready experiments from using otherwise expiring capacity.","claim_kind":"HYPOTHESIS"},{"archetype_element":"blocked mutually beneficial activity","domain_realization":"The facility gains productive use and a ready research team gains measurement time when a vacated slot is reassigned.","claim_kind":"INFERENCE"},{"archetype_element":"idle capacity symptom","domain_realization":"Recoverable instrument-hours expire while eligible demand waits.","claim_kind":"HYPOTHESIS"},{"archetype_element":"protected purpose","domain_realization":"Safety clearance, instrument compatibility, scientific merit, fair access, and reserved-access commitments remain binding.","claim_kind":"INFERENCE"},{"archetype_element":"specific redesign lever","domain_realization":"A prequalified readiness pool and rule-based release/reassignment window dynamically reallocate only vacated or imminently unusable slots.","claim_kind":"HYPOTHESIS"},{"archetype_element":"bounded monitoring and rollback","domain_realization":"A limited instrument-line pilot expires automatically and reverts if safety, access, or operational thresholds fail.","claim_kind":"HYPOTHESIS"}],"component_map":[{"component":"Distortion Map","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Trace each lost slot from original award through cancellation, release timing, eligibility rules, and final nonuse."},{"component":"Protected Constraint Safeguard","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Require unchanged safety, compatibility, merit, and protected-access gates for substitute experiments."},{"component":"Surplus Estimate","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Estimate recoverable instrument-hours and enabled measurements, with scientific value reported as uncertain proxies rather than monetized certainty."},{"component":"Affected-Party Incidence Map","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Record gains, losses, workload, and access changes for scheduled, reserve, protected-access, and facility parties."},{"component":"Redesign Lever","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Add advance release deadlines, a safety-cleared readiness pool, and transparent reassignment priorities."},{"component":"Distributional Review","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Test whether short-notice readiness favors well-resourced or nearby teams and preserve routes for less-resourced users."},{"component":"Behavioral Response Model","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Model earlier cancellation, strategic overbooking, proposal fragmentation, reserve-pool entry, and staff workload."},{"component":"Implementation Boundary","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Limit the pilot to vacated slots on one suitable instrument line; do not alter initial awards or safety standards."},{"component":"Monitoring and Rebound Check","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Track recovered hours, failed changeovers, safety events, access distribution, cancellations, gaming, and staff burden."},{"component":"Rollback or Adjustment Rule","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Suspend reassignment and restore ordinary scheduling upon threshold breach."},{"component":"Cost–Benefit Assessment Frame","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Compare recovered experimental capacity with transition, staffing, disruption, fairness, and safety costs."},{"component":"Price-Wedge Diagnostic","status":"incompatible","domain_realization":"No access price is posited as causal; diagnose an allocation-rule wedge instead."},{"component":"Friction Source Breakdown","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Separate legitimate preparation and changeover time from avoidable late-release and reassignment delay."},{"component":"Compensating Adjustment Plan","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Provide preparation support or protected reserve opportunities if short-notice eligibility disadvantages resource-constrained teams."},{"component":"Legitimacy and Authority Review","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Confirm that facility governance may reassign vacated awards and that user agreements disclose the rule."},{"component":"Sensitivity Analysis","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Vary cancellation frequency, readiness-pool depth, changeover time, staff cost, and value-per-hour assumptions."},{"component":"Pilot or Sunset Path","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Run a time-limited pilot with automatic expiry unless predefined evidence supports renewal."}],"mechanism_dispositions":[{"slug":"congestion_or_capacity_pricing_adjustment","disposition":"considered_rejected","contribution_type":"NONE","adaptation_or_rejection":"Rejected because pricing would redistribute scarce access and threaten equitable-access commitments without addressing expired slots.","counterfactual_removal":"No change; price variation is absent from the proposed causal chain."},{"slug":"cost_benefit_assessment_protocol","disposition":"selected_supporting","contribution_type":"OPERATIONAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Adapt benefits to recovered hours and measurements and include staffing, fairness, disruption, and safety costs.","counterfactual_removal":"The reassignment could operate, but continuation would lack a disciplined net-benefit and incidence decision."},{"slug":"distortion_reduction_review","disposition":"selected_load_bearing","contribution_type":"CORE_CAUSAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Use slot histories to distinguish avoidable allocation delay from necessary safety, preparation, and changeover constraints.","counterfactual_removal":"The intervention could misclassify real physical or safety constraints as waste, invalidating the target."},{"slug":"impact_assessment_table","disposition":"selected_supporting","contribution_type":"SAFETY_GUARDRAIL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Rows cover user groups, staff, facility, protected-access cohorts, and observable access or harm triggers.","counterfactual_removal":"Aggregate utilization could conceal concentrated exclusion or workload, weakening the equity safeguard."},{"slug":"matching_improvement_program","disposition":"considered_rejected","contribution_type":"NONE","adaptation_or_rejection":"Rejected as primary because the posited failure is authority to reallocate an expiring entitlement, not inability to discover compatible teams.","counterfactual_removal":"No material change; the readiness pool is an implementation feature, not the causal lever."},{"slug":"permit_or_approval_streamlining","disposition":"considered_rejected","contribution_type":"NONE","adaptation_or_rejection":"Safety and merit approval are retained; the proposal changes post-award allocation rather than review speed.","counterfactual_removal":"No change because approval processing is outside the intervention boundary."},{"slug":"price_control_redesign","disposition":"incompatible","contribution_type":"NONE","adaptation_or_rejection":"There is no administered-price distortion in the stated problem.","counterfactual_removal":"No change."},{"slug":"quota_or_allocation_rule_review","disposition":"selected_load_bearing","contribution_type":"CORE_CAUSAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Separate fixed facility capacity and protected quotas from the rule governing vacated-slot reassignment.","counterfactual_removal":"Removing it eliminates the specific rule change that converts expiring capacity into completed experiments."},{"slug":"regulatory_simplification_pilot","disposition":"selected_load_bearing","contribution_type":"TEST_DESIGN","adaptation_or_rejection":"Adapt the walled-off pilot to one instrument line with unchanged substantive gates and automatic expiry.","counterfactual_removal":"Without bounded scope and expiry, uncertainty about operational and access harms would hard-gate authorization."},{"slug":"sunset_clause_review","disposition":"considered_rejected","contribution_type":"NONE","adaptation_or_rejection":"Rejected as redundant because the selected pilot already includes automatic expiry; the standing allocation regime need not sunset.","counterfactual_removal":"No change; pilot expiry remains."},{"slug":"tariff_fee_or_toll_redesign","disposition":"incompatible","contribution_type":"NONE","adaptation_or_rejection":"No authority-imposed charge is identified as the wedge.","counterfactual_removal":"No change."}],"causal_chain":["Audit slot histories to verify that qualified ready demand coexists with recoverable idle time and isolate rule-caused loss from preparation or safety constraints.","Prequalify experiments for safety, compatibility, merit, and short-notice readiness before vacancies arise.","Require timely release of unusable awards and apply transparent priorities to reassign only vacated slots.","Ready experiments occupy hours that would otherwise expire, increasing completed measurements without relaxing protected gates (HYPOTHESIS).","Monitor utilization, disruption, gaming, safety, workload, and access incidence; adjust or terminate the pilot on threshold breach."],"baseline":"Fixed proposal-cycle awards remain with the original team until ad hoc cancellation handling; staff informally seek substitutes when possible, and unrecoverable vacancies expire.","nearest_rival":"A simple cancellation waitlist or staff matching service. It helps find substitutes but does not repair release timing, reassignment authority, transparent priorities, or protected-access incidence.","authority_safety":{"affected_parties":["original award holders","reserve-pool teams","protected-access and resource-constrained users","instrument and safety staff","facility governance","funders"],"decision_authority":"The facility body authorized to govern instrument-time awards, with safety officers retaining independent veto over experiment readiness.","authorized_first_step":"Run a prospective, one-cycle pilot on one compatible instrument line, limited to already-vacated slots and pre-cleared experiments, after publishing priorities and collecting baseline utilization and incidence data.","excluded_actions":["bypassing radiation, cryogenic, biological, equipment, or personnel-safety review","revoking active awards merely to favor predicted higher-value science","auctioning access or introducing scarcity pricing","reducing protected-access shares","treating scientific value estimates as dispositive","expanding beyond the named instrument line without renewed authorization"],"halt_rollback":"Immediately suspend reassignment after a serious safety event attributable to the pilot; otherwise halt or tighten it when predefined limits on failed changeovers, staff burden, schedule disruption, gaming, or protected-group access are exceeded, then revert remaining slots to the ordinary regime."}},"negative_tests":{"strongest_counterevidence":"A prospective audit may show that apparent vacancies are physically unusable because changeover, maintenance, sample readiness, or staffing consumes the interval, or that existing staff already fill every usable cancellation; then little avoidable wedge remains.","analogy_break":"Instrument time is not freely exchangeable surplus: experiments differ in setup, safety, duration, and scientific legitimacy. If slots are technically nonfungible or peer-review commitments prohibit reassignment, the market-wedge analogy fails.","failure_condition":"The readiness pool is too shallow, changeover costs consume the released time, teams game releases, or faster reassignment systematically shifts access toward well-resourced users.","problem_falsifier":"The problem is falsified if measured operations show no material overlap between technically usable vacant hours and qualified ready demand blocked specifically by allocation rules.","intervention_falsifier":"The intervention is falsified if, versus the baseline over the bounded pilot, it produces no meaningful increase in usable completed experiment-hours or causes threshold-level safety, disruption, workload, gaming, or distributional harm.","risks":["Strategic overbooking or delayed cancellation","Advantage to nearby or well-resourced teams able to mobilize quickly","Rushed preparation and increased safety risk","Higher staff and changeover burden","Displacement of protected-access users","Gaming of readiness or priority classifications","Overvaluing hour counts relative to scientific quality"]},"null_rationale":null,"classification":{"candidate_kind":"DOMAIN_TRANSFER","prior_art_status":"UNSEARCHED","evidence_maturity":"HYPOTHESIS"},"revision_change_log":{"revision_kind":"ORIGINAL","prior_problem_id":null,"prior_causal_lever_id":null,"problem_changed":false,"causal_lever_changed":false,"conceptual_changes":[],"operational_changes":[],"repairs_addressed":[]},"confidence":0.82,"generator_notes":"Closed-book structural transfer. The candidate concerns the institutional allocation layer of experimental physics, not a claim that physical laws themselves contain an avoidable wedge."}