{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp03_full320_20260801","cell_id":"layer_decay_and_expiration_management__futurism_foresight","trajectory_id":"R","attempt_index":0,"archetype_slug":"layer_decay_and_expiration_management","domain_slug":"futurism_foresight","decision":"CANDIDATE","problem_id":"stale_foresight_artifact_authority","causal_lever_id":"lifecycle_gated_foresight_authority","proposal":{"problem":"Foresight repositories accumulate scenarios, signals, assumptions, forecasts, and implications whose contexts or validation status have changed, yet obsolete artifacts remain discoverable with no explicit loss of authority. Decision-makers can mistake them for current guidance, while indiscriminate cleanup can destroy comparison, lineage, and accountability.","actors_substrate":["foresight teams and repository stewards","strategy and policy decision-makers","scenario, scan, assumption, and forecast artifacts","repositories, indexes, and decision workflows"],"observable_state":"Artifacts lack explicit active, superseded, review-due, archived, held, and deleted states; outdated assumptions or signals appear beside current material without dependable context labels.","consequence":"HYPOTHESIS: stale artifacts continue influencing present decisions, search and review burdens grow, and cleanup is deferred because historical and dependency value is unclear.","affected_objective":"Keep foresight inputs current and interpretable while preserving reconstructable institutional memory.","structural_mapping":[{"archetype_element":"sequential deposits","domain_realization":"Repeated horizon scans, scenario cycles, forecasts, assumptions, and implication reports.","claim_kind":"CORPUS"},{"archetype_element":"stale layers remain active","domain_realization":"Past foresight artifacts remain discoverable without clear supersession or review status.","claim_kind":"INFERENCE"},{"archetype_element":"retention-versus-removal tension","domain_realization":"Removing obsolete guidance reduces confusion but can erase provenance, comparison, and decision lineage.","claim_kind":"INFERENCE"},{"archetype_element":"managed lifecycle governance","domain_realization":"Artifact states and review rules determine when foresight material is refreshed, demoted, archived, held, or removed.","claim_kind":"HYPOTHESIS"}],"component_map":[{"component":"layer_inventory_and_identity_map","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Canonical registry of foresight artifacts and versions."},{"component":"deposition_order_and_age_index","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Creation, revision, and scenario-cycle dates."},{"component":"retention_policy_matrix","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Rules by artifact class and evidentiary or historical value."},{"component":"decay_function_or_aging_rule","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Current-authority declines after context change or missed validation, not age alone."},{"component":"expiration_trigger_definition","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Review due date, invalidated assumption, supersession, or ended planning horizon."},{"component":"layer_value_and_risk_score","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Separate current-decision value, historical value, and misleadingness assessment."},{"component":"dependency_and_reconstruction_check","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Check citations, scenario chains, decisions, and comparison studies before removal."},{"component":"pruning_or_archival_pathway","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Refresh, supersede, archive, compact, quarantine, or delete."},{"component":"preservation_exception_register","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Named historical, evidentiary, methodological, or contested-case exceptions."},{"component":"deletion_audit_and_rollback_window","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Logged removal with recoverable quarantine."},{"component":"resource_budget_and_storage_tier","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Budgets for active curation, searchable archive, and deep archive."},{"component":"review_cadence_and_revalidation_loop","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Periodic owner review and exception renewal."},{"component":"legal_hold_or_compliance_override","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Investigation, records, or litigation holds block disposition."},{"component":"hot_warm_cold_access_state","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Active guidance, reference archive, and deep historical archive."},{"component":"orphan_layer_detection","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Artifacts with no live citations, dependencies, owner, or preservation duty."},{"component":"supersession_marker","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Visible replacement link and loss-of-current-authority notice."},{"component":"layer_compaction_candidate_flag","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Flag related scan batches for indexed bundles without erasing originals."},{"component":"rehydration_or_restore_procedure","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Restore archived artifacts with metadata, links, and readable formats."},{"component":"deletion_impact_estimate","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Estimate affected decisions, citations, reconstruction, and historical loss."},{"component":"stale_context_detector","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Detect invalid assumptions, ended horizons, broken references, and changed drivers."}],"mechanism_dispositions":[{"slug":"age_weighted_value_score","disposition":"considered_rejected","contribution_type":"NONE","adaptation_or_rejection":"Reject composite age discounting because old foresight may gain historical value and apparent precision can conceal contested judgments.","counterfactual_removal":"No material loss; multidimensional review remains."},{"slug":"archive_restore_test","disposition":"selected_supporting","contribution_type":"OPERATIONAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Sample archived artifacts across formats and ages; verify readable content, metadata, and links.","counterfactual_removal":"Archive could become unrecoverable, defeating safe demotion."},{"slug":"cache_eviction_rule","disposition":"incompatible","contribution_type":"NONE","adaptation_or_rejection":"The problem is authority and lifecycle governance, not instantaneous eviction from a fixed cache.","counterfactual_removal":"No change."},{"slug":"dependency_safe_delete_check","disposition":"selected_load_bearing","contribution_type":"SAFETY_GUARDRAIL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Trace live citations, scenario derivations, and decision records before deletion.","counterfactual_removal":"Cleanup could break lineage and reconstruction, hard-gating deletion safety."},{"slug":"lifecycle_storage_tiering_policy","disposition":"selected_supporting","contribution_type":"OPERATIONAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Demote noncurrent artifacts from active search to reference or deep archive while preserving identity.","counterfactual_removal":"Lifecycle states would not reliably change visibility or curation cost."},{"slug":"log_rotation_and_cleanup_job","disposition":"incompatible","contribution_type":"NONE","adaptation_or_rejection":"Foresight artifacts are heterogeneous and value is not determined by position in an append-only stream.","counterfactual_removal":"No change."},{"slug":"retention_schedule","disposition":"selected_load_bearing","contribution_type":"CORE_CAUSAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Assign review and disposition rules by artifact class, with explicit exceptions and holds.","counterfactual_removal":"Artifacts revert to active-by-default status and inconsistent cleanup."},{"slug":"soft_delete_quarantine_window","disposition":"selected_supporting","contribution_type":"SAFETY_GUARDRAIL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Hide deletion candidates for a bounded, impact-scaled recovery period before destruction.","counterfactual_removal":"Errors become immediately irreversible, making cleanup unsafe."},{"slug":"stale_layer_detection_dashboard","disposition":"selected_load_bearing","contribution_type":"CORE_CAUSAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Inventory artifacts and surface context-invalid or superseded items for governed review.","counterfactual_removal":"Stale authority remains invisible and the intervention loses its actionable input."},{"slug":"time_to_live_ttl_policy","disposition":"considered_rejected","contribution_type":"NONE","adaptation_or_rejection":"Reject automatic fixed expiry; use review triggers because foresight value and validity are contextual.","counterfactual_removal":"No material loss; expiration remains governed rather than clock-blind."},{"slug":"tombstone_or_deletion_marker","disposition":"selected_supporting","contribution_type":"SAFETY_GUARDRAIL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Leave a durable deletion or supersession marker resolving references to status or successor.","counterfactual_removal":"Absence becomes ambiguous and stale copies or citations may revive removed guidance."}],"causal_chain":["Inventory artifacts and identify owners, dates, contexts, and dependencies.","Detect supersession or context invalidation and trigger class-specific review.","Remove current authority through labeling and active-search demotion before considering destruction.","Apply holds and dependency gates; route artifacts to refresh, archive, quarantine, or deletion.","Test restoration and revalidate exceptions so boundedness does not erase institutional memory.","HYPOTHESIS: current guidance becomes easier to distinguish without losing reconstructability."],"baseline":"Shared drives or repositories retain successive foresight outputs indefinitely; users rely on dates, search ranking, and personal knowledge to judge currency, with occasional ad hoc cleanup.","nearest_rival":"A periodic manual archive campaign that moves old folders by date but lacks artifact-level staleness, dependency, exception, supersession, and restore controls.","authority_safety":{"affected_parties":["artifact authors and owners","decision-makers relying on foresight outputs","records, legal, and audit stakeholders","future researchers reconstructing past decisions"],"decision_authority":"A designated foresight repository steward may change visibility and lifecycle state; artifact owners validate meaning, and records or legal authorities control mandatory holds and irreversible destruction.","authorized_first_step":"Run a 60-day pilot on one completed scenario portfolio: inventory artifacts, label review-due or superseded items, and demote only owner-confirmed cases to a reversible archive; compare stale-item retrieval errors, review effort, and restore success with an untreated portfolio.","excluded_actions":["automatic hard deletion","overriding legal or preservation holds","rewriting historical artifacts to appear current","using age alone to determine validity","removing artifacts with unresolved dependencies"],"halt_rollback":"Halt if an archived item is needed but cannot be restored, a live dependency is broken, or owners dispute more than a preset share of classifications; restore all pilot items and labels from the audit log."}},"negative_tests":{"strongest_counterevidence":"Existing users may already distinguish current from historical material through established workflows, while old artifacts are rarely surfaced or acted upon; then lifecycle machinery adds governance cost without reducing errors.","analogy_break":"Unlike disposable technical layers, old scenarios can become more valuable for longitudinal learning, and scenarios are possibilities rather than truth claims; validity therefore does not decay monotonically with age.","failure_condition":"The intervention fails if lifecycle labels are not honored by search and decision workflows, ownership is absent, or archives cannot preserve context and links.","problem_falsifier":"Repository sampling finds explicit, consistently enforced current/superseded/archive states and no meaningful cases of obsolete artifacts being mistaken for current guidance.","intervention_falsifier":"The diagnosed ambiguity exists, but the pilot does not reduce stale-artifact selection or review time, or it causes dependency/restore failures exceeding the preset threshold relative to the untreated portfolio.","risks":["false confidence from automated staleness inference","suppression of dissenting or minority scenarios as obsolete","loss of historical context through compaction","legal or confidentiality exposure in quarantine","governance burden exceeding search and decision benefits"]},"null_rationale":null,"classification":{"candidate_kind":"DOMAIN_TRANSFER","prior_art_status":"UNSEARCHED","evidence_maturity":"HYPOTHESIS"},"revision_change_log":{"revision_kind":"ORIGINAL","prior_problem_id":null,"prior_causal_lever_id":null,"problem_changed":false,"causal_lever_changed":false,"conceptual_changes":[],"operational_changes":[],"repairs_addressed":[]},"confidence":0.84,"generator_notes":"Closed-book structural transfer from the supplied packet; empirical prevalence and effect claims remain hypotheses."}