{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp03_full320_20260801","cell_id":"layer_decay_and_expiration_management__geoengineering_planetary_science","trajectory_id":"R","attempt_index":0,"archetype_slug":"layer_decay_and_expiration_management","domain_slug":"geoengineering_planetary_science","decision":"CANDIDATE","problem_id":"superseded_geoengineering_simulation_artifact_accumulation","causal_lever_id":"governed_simulation_artifact_lifecycle_state","proposal":{"problem":"Geoengineering research repositories can retain successive simulation outputs, intervention scenarios, calibrations, and derived products as equally active after their models, assumptions, or policy contexts have been superseded. Researchers may then reuse incompatible or stale artifacts, while indiscriminate deletion would break citation, reproducibility, lineage, and safety review. [HYPOTHESIS]","actors_substrate":["geoengineering and planetary-science researchers","research-computing and repository stewards","scientific review and governance bodies","decision-makers consuming model evidence","communities potentially affected by proposed interventions","versioned simulations, scenarios, parameters, observations, and derived products"],"observable_state":"A repository audit finds multiple generations of model artifacts without consistent lifecycle labels, supersession links, dependency metadata, retention classes, or tested restoration paths; obsolete generations remain in ordinary search results. [HYPOTHESIS]","consequence":"Stale or incompatible evidence can be mistaken for current evidence, active storage and review burdens grow, and cleanup is avoided because reproducibility dependencies are uncertain. [HYPOTHESIS]","affected_objective":"Keep geoengineering evidence repositories interpretable, bounded, reproducible, and safe for scientific and policy use.","structural_mapping":[{"archetype_element":"sequential deposits","domain_realization":"Successive model runs, scenario ensembles, parameter sets, calibration products, and derived analyses deposited during geoengineering studies.","claim_kind":"INFERENCE"},{"archetype_element":"changed active usefulness or validity","domain_realization":"Artifacts lose current authority when their model version, forcing assumptions, intervention design, or calibration is superseded, although they may retain historical value.","claim_kind":"INFERENCE"},{"archetype_element":"stale layers masquerade as current","domain_realization":"Unlabeled legacy outputs remain searchable beside current products and may be reused without compatibility checks. [HYPOTHESIS]","claim_kind":"HYPOTHESIS"},{"archetype_element":"deletion threatens reconstruction","domain_realization":"Removing inputs, code-linked outputs, or intermediate products can invalidate published lineage, review, or reproducibility.","claim_kind":"INFERENCE"},{"archetype_element":"differentiated disposition","domain_realization":"Artifacts are refreshed, marked superseded, compacted, moved to archival tiers, quarantined, or deleted according to scientific value and dependencies.","claim_kind":"INFERENCE"},{"archetype_element":"exception and revalidation governance","domain_realization":"Cited, unique, safety-relevant, contested, or preservation-mandated artifacts receive named holds that are periodically reviewed.","claim_kind":"INFERENCE"}],"component_map":[{"component":"layer_inventory_and_identity_map","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Identity-resolved catalog of runs, scenarios, inputs, outputs, and derivatives."},{"component":"deposition_order_and_age_index","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Creation time plus model, scenario, and processing generation."},{"component":"retention_policy_matrix","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Artifact-class rules for active retention, archive, and deletion eligibility."},{"component":"decay_function_or_aging_rule","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Declining current-use priority based on age since supersession, not age alone."},{"component":"expiration_trigger_definition","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Supersession, validation failure, project closure, or elapsed review interval triggers review."},{"component":"layer_value_and_risk_score","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Score using citation, uniqueness, reproducibility value, sensitivity, cost, and misuse risk."},{"component":"dependency_and_reconstruction_check","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Trace publications, workflows, derivatives, and safety reviews before disposition."},{"component":"pruning_or_archival_pathway","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Refresh, compact, archive, quarantine, or approved deletion."},{"component":"preservation_exception_register","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Register cited, unique, historically important, contested, or safety-relevant artifacts."},{"component":"deletion_audit_and_rollback_window","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Recorded soft deletion with a time-bounded restoration period."},{"component":"resource_budget_and_storage_tier","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Budgeted active, nearline, cold, and preservation storage."},{"component":"review_cadence_and_revalidation_loop","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Periodic review of classifications, holds, formats, and restoration results."},{"component":"legal_hold_or_compliance_override","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Funder, institutional, investigation, consent, or evidentiary hold."},{"component":"hot_warm_cold_access_state","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Active workspace, nearline repository, cold archive, and preservation tier."},{"component":"orphan_layer_detection","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Artifact with no detected publication, workflow, derivative, or review dependency."},{"component":"supersession_marker","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Durable status and link to the successor artifact."},{"component":"layer_compaction_candidate_flag","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Flag redundant ensembles or intermediates suitable for lossless packaging or deduplication."},{"component":"rehydration_or_restore_procedure","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Retrieve, verify, parse, and reconnect archived artifacts to current tooling."},{"component":"deletion_impact_estimate","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Estimate reproducibility, citation, safety-review, and recovery consequences."},{"component":"stale_context_detector","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Detect retired models, invalid assumptions, broken provenance, or superseded scenarios."}],"mechanism_dispositions":[{"slug":"age_weighted_value_score","disposition":"selected_supporting","contribution_type":"OPERATIONAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Use age since supersession as one transparent ranking factor; preservation and dependency vetoes override the score.","counterfactual_removal":"Triage becomes slower and less consistent, but lifecycle governance remains viable."},{"slug":"archive_restore_test","disposition":"selected_load_bearing","contribution_type":"SAFETY_GUARDRAIL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Exercise retrieval, integrity, readability, provenance reconstruction, and tool compatibility across sampled archive ages.","counterfactual_removal":"Archival could silently become irreversible loss, hard-gating safe demotion."},{"slug":"cache_eviction_rule","disposition":"considered_rejected","contribution_type":"NONE","adaptation_or_rejection":"Repository authority and reproducibility cannot be governed by instantaneous access-recency eviction.","counterfactual_removal":"No material change; ordinary compute caches remain outside the intervention."},{"slug":"dependency_safe_delete_check","disposition":"selected_load_bearing","contribution_type":"SAFETY_GUARDRAIL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Trace publications, derivatives, workflows, external identifiers, and review dependencies; uncertainty blocks destruction.","counterfactual_removal":"Deletion could sever evidence chains, making irreversible cleanup unacceptable."},{"slug":"lifecycle_storage_tiering_policy","disposition":"selected_load_bearing","contribution_type":"CORE_CAUSAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Demote superseded, low-access artifacts while preserving identity and recoverability; compact only losslessly.","counterfactual_removal":"Old artifacts remain active and costly or face premature deletion, defeating differentiated expiration."},{"slug":"log_rotation_and_cleanup_job","disposition":"incompatible","contribution_type":"NONE","adaptation_or_rejection":"Scientific artifacts are heterogeneous and value cannot safely be inferred from position in an append-only generation chain.","counterfactual_removal":"No change; classed disposition replaces blind rotation."},{"slug":"retention_schedule","disposition":"selected_load_bearing","contribution_type":"OPERATIONAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Map artifact classes to minimum retention, review dates, archival actions, and institutional overrides.","counterfactual_removal":"Disposition lacks consistent authority and exceptions tend to become ad hoc."},{"slug":"soft_delete_quarantine_window","disposition":"selected_load_bearing","contribution_type":"SAFETY_GUARDRAIL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Hide approved deletion candidates while retaining recoverability for an impact-scaled grace period.","counterfactual_removal":"Pilot cleanup becomes irreversibly risky and should not proceed."},{"slug":"stale_layer_detection_dashboard","disposition":"selected_load_bearing","contribution_type":"CORE_CAUSAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Expose inventory, provenance gaps, supersession, and suspected incompatibility without automatically judging scientific validity.","counterfactual_removal":"The active-default accumulation and stale-authority problem remains largely invisible."},{"slug":"time_to_live_ttl_policy","disposition":"considered_rejected","contribution_type":"NONE","adaptation_or_rejection":"Fixed creation-time expiry is too blind to later citation, uniqueness, controversy, and reproducibility value; review triggers are used instead.","counterfactual_removal":"No material loss because contextual review supplies expiration decisions."},{"slug":"tombstone_or_deletion_marker","disposition":"selected_supporting","contribution_type":"SAFETY_GUARDRAIL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Retain identity, disposition reason, date, and successor or archive pointer after removal.","counterfactual_removal":"Missing artifacts become ambiguous and stale indexes may misdirect users, though archival control still functions."}],"causal_chain":["Inventory and identity resolution reveal artifact generations and provenance gaps.","Supersession and stale-context signals trigger review rather than automatic destruction.","Retention rules, value-risk ranking, holds, and dependency tracing assign an explicit lifecycle state.","Current-authority search views exclude or visibly label superseded artifacts.","Eligible artifacts move to cheaper recoverable tiers or soft-delete quarantine.","Restore drills, tombstones, audits, and periodic revalidation preserve reconstruction and expose lifecycle failures.","The active evidence stack becomes smaller and less ambiguous without erasing required scientific memory."],"baseline":"Repositories keep most outputs in project directories or shared storage, use informal names and README notes, and perform occasional manual cleanup when capacity or project closure forces action. [HYPOTHESIS]","nearest_rival":"A deduplication-and-compression program that reduces storage volume but does not govern authority, supersession, retention exceptions, dependencies, or restoration.","authority_safety":{"affected_parties":["artifact creators and maintainers","authors and reviewers relying on preserved evidence","repository and institutional stewards","decision-makers using geoengineering assessments","communities potentially affected by decisions informed by the evidence"],"decision_authority":"The repository steward may classify and tier artifacts under a policy approved by the responsible scientific institution; irreversible deletion requires artifact-owner or designated scientific-governance approval, with holds controlling.","authorized_first_step":"Run a 90-day, read-only-first pilot on one closed project's repository: inventory at most 1,000 artifacts, label suspected supersession, trace dependencies, propose lifecycle states, archive copies of a stratified sample, and prove restoration; only then soft-delete up to 20 owner-approved, dependency-free items.","excluded_actions":["altering or deploying any physical geoengineering intervention","automatic hard deletion","removing cited, unique, contested, safety-relevant, or held artifacts","lossy compaction of scientific evidence","treating a score or stale flag as a scientific-validity judgment"],"halt_rollback":"Halt disposition upon unresolved provenance or dependencies, failed restoration, integrity mismatch, owner dispute, hold discovery, or missing successor linkage; restore quarantined artifacts and return affected records to active-review state."}},"negative_tests":{"strongest_counterevidence":"Old simulations may remain scientifically valuable for comparison, attribution, historical reconstruction, or future reanalysis; storage may be cheaper than classification, and age can be a poor proxy for validity.","analogy_break":"Unlike disposable operational records, a superseded scientific artifact can gain value when methods improve or past decisions are audited; lifecycle demotion must therefore preserve discoverability and reconstruction rather than imply epistemic worthlessness.","failure_condition":"The scheme fails if provenance and external dependencies cannot be observed well enough to distinguish safely archivable or deletable artifacts, or if cold-tier formats cannot be reliably restored.","problem_falsifier":"A representative audit finds that artifact generations already carry clear authority and supersession states, obsolete artifacts are rarely retrieved as current, active storage and review burdens are negligible, and reproducibility dependencies are consistently documented.","intervention_falsifier":"The bounded pilot confirms the problem but lifecycle labels and tiering do not reduce retrieval of superseded artifacts or active-tier burden, or they increase failed reproductions, restore failures, disputed classifications, or time-to-find valid evidence beyond preset tolerances.","risks":["False stale classifications could hide valid minority or historical results.","Incomplete dependency graphs could permit deletion of externally referenced evidence.","Composite scores could create false precision or encode governance bias.","Cold storage or obsolete formats could make nominally preserved artifacts unusable.","Lifecycle labels could be misread as judgments that results are scientifically false.","Quarantine may conflict with binding destruction or confidentiality requirements.","Repository cleanup could disproportionately erase evidence needed by affected communities or independent reviewers."]},"null_rationale":null,"classification":{"candidate_kind":"DOMAIN_TRANSFER","prior_art_status":"UNSEARCHED","evidence_maturity":"HYPOTHESIS"},"revision_change_log":{"revision_kind":"ORIGINAL","prior_problem_id":null,"prior_causal_lever_id":null,"problem_changed":false,"causal_lever_changed":false,"conceptual_changes":[],"operational_changes":[],"repairs_addressed":[]},"confidence":0.81,"generator_notes":"Closed-book structural transfer. The candidate concerns lifecycle governance of accumulated geoengineering simulation artifacts, not evaluation or deployment of geoengineering itself; empirical prevalence and effect claims remain hypotheses."}