{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp03_full320_20260801","cell_id":"layer_decay_and_expiration_management__military_strategic_studies","trajectory_id":"R","attempt_index":0,"archetype_slug":"layer_decay_and_expiration_management","domain_slug":"military_strategic_studies","decision":"CANDIDATE","problem_id":"superseded_operational_guidance_repository_sprawl","causal_lever_id":"explicit_validity_state_and_reversible_retirement","proposal":{"problem":"HYPOTHESIS: Headquarters repositories accumulate versions of contingency plans, orders, annexes, rules, and assessments after their operational validity changes. When supersession and retention states are unclear, personnel can mistake obsolete guidance for current authority; indiscriminate cleanup can instead erase accountability, reconstruction evidence, or reusable planning history.","actors_substrate":["commanders and operations staffs","units and coalition partners consuming guidance","records, legal, intelligence, and security authorities","repositories containing sequential versions of plans, orders, annexes, and assessments","civilians and forces affected by decisions based on those artifacts"],"observable_state":"Multiple temporally ordered artifacts address the same mission or contingency; some remain searchable beside current guidance without unambiguous current, superseded, held, or archived status, while owners cannot readily prove which artifacts are safe to retire.","consequence":"Planning friction, contradictory interpretation, or action based on stale assumptions may increase, while avoidance of cleanup expands search burden and uncontrolled destruction impairs inquiry, lessons, and reconstruction.","affected_objective":"Reliable and timely command decisions while preserving lawful accountability, operational continuity, and recoverable institutional memory.","structural_mapping":[{"archetype_element":"sequential deposits","domain_realization":"Successive plan versions, orders, fragments, annexes, assessments, and contingency branches.","claim_kind":"INFERENCE"},{"archetype_element":"changing active value","domain_realization":"Operational relevance changes with mission, threat, force posture, authority, and factual context—not age alone.","claim_kind":"INFERENCE"},{"archetype_element":"stale layer mistaken for current truth","domain_realization":"An obsolete artifact remains discoverable without a decisive supersession or validity marker.","claim_kind":"HYPOTHESIS"},{"archetype_element":"unsafe deletion","domain_realization":"Removal can break order lineage, investigations, after-action reconstruction, or reuse of planning assumptions.","claim_kind":"INFERENCE"},{"archetype_element":"managed lifecycle","domain_realization":"Inventory, validity review, holds, demotion, archival, reversible deletion, restoration tests, and recorded disposition.","claim_kind":"HYPOTHESIS"}],"component_map":[{"component":"layer_inventory_and_identity_map","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Registry resolving every artifact, version, mission, owner, classification, and authoritative copy."},{"component":"deposition_order_and_age_index","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Creation, issue, amendment, and receipt chronology."},{"component":"retention_policy_matrix","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Artifact-class rules for active use, reference retention, archive, and destruction."},{"component":"decay_function_or_aging_rule","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Age raises review priority but never independently cancels command authority."},{"component":"expiration_trigger_definition","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Mission end, rescission, supersession, factual invalidation, or scheduled review triggers disposition review."},{"component":"layer_value_and_risk_score","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Triage score for reuse, evidentiary value, sensitivity, staleness, and reconstruction cost."},{"component":"dependency_and_reconstruction_check","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Check citations, subordinate products, investigations, lessons, and reconstruction paths before removal."},{"component":"pruning_or_archival_pathway","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Refresh, supersede, demote, archive, quarantine, or destroy."},{"component":"preservation_exception_register","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Named operational, historical, intelligence, evidentiary, and safety exceptions."},{"component":"deletion_audit_and_rollback_window","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Recorded two-stage removal with a recovery interval."},{"component":"resource_budget_and_storage_tier","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Budget authoritative-workspace visibility, review labor, storage, and retrieval latency."},{"component":"review_cadence_and_revalidation_loop","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Periodic owner certification and post-mission review."},{"component":"legal_hold_or_compliance_override","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Investigation, litigation, records, classification, and preservation holds override disposal."},{"component":"hot_warm_cold_access_state","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Current authoritative workspace, planning reference, archive, and deep archive."},{"component":"orphan_layer_detection","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Artifact with no live authority, dependency, hold, or required reconstruction role."},{"component":"supersession_marker","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Durable status naming cancellation or the controlling successor."},{"component":"layer_compaction_candidate_flag","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Flag redundant working copies for consolidation while preserving authoritative originals and lineage."},{"component":"rehydration_or_restore_procedure","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Authorized retrieval, integrity validation, interpretation, and reconnection of archived material."},{"component":"deletion_impact_estimate","status":"direct","domain_realization":"Estimate operational, evidentiary, legal, and coalition consequences before deletion."},{"component":"stale_context_detector","status":"adapted","domain_realization":"Flag mismatches with current mission, threat, force, geography, authority, or referenced systems."}],"mechanism_dispositions":[{"slug":"age_weighted_value_score","disposition":"selected_supporting","contribution_type":"OPERATIONAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Ranks review workload; authority and holds veto age discounting.","counterfactual_removal":"Review remains possible but becomes less scalable and consistently prioritized."},{"slug":"archive_restore_test","disposition":"selected_supporting","contribution_type":"SAFETY_GUARDRAIL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Exercise authorized restoration across artifact classes and age bands.","counterfactual_removal":"Archival could silently become irreversible loss."},{"slug":"cache_eviction_rule","disposition":"considered_rejected","contribution_type":"NONE","adaptation_or_rejection":"Access recency cannot decide command validity or lawful retention.","counterfactual_removal":"No material change; tier transitions are governed by status and policy."},{"slug":"dependency_safe_delete_check","disposition":"selected_load_bearing","contribution_type":"CORE_CAUSAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Gate removal on live authority, citations, holds, coalition uses, and reconstruction paths.","counterfactual_removal":"Cleanup could break operational or accountability dependencies."},{"slug":"lifecycle_storage_tiering_policy","disposition":"selected_supporting","contribution_type":"OPERATIONAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Move noncurrent artifacts out of authoritative views while retaining controlled retrieval.","counterfactual_removal":"Retention remains safe but active search clutter and cost persist."},{"slug":"log_rotation_and_cleanup_job","disposition":"considered_rejected","contribution_type":"NONE","adaptation_or_rejection":"Generation position is too content-blind for plans and orders.","counterfactual_removal":"No material change to the proposed lifecycle."},{"slug":"retention_schedule","disposition":"selected_load_bearing","contribution_type":"CORE_CAUSAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Maps military artifact classes to review, retention, disposition, exceptions, and holds.","counterfactual_removal":"Disposition lacks consistent authority and exceptions become ad hoc."},{"slug":"soft_delete_quarantine_window","disposition":"selected_load_bearing","contribution_type":"SAFETY_GUARDRAIL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Hide from ordinary discovery before destruction and permit audited restoration.","counterfactual_removal":"Erroneous retirement becomes immediately irreversible."},{"slug":"stale_layer_detection_dashboard","disposition":"selected_load_bearing","contribution_type":"CORE_CAUSAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Inventory artifacts and flag contextual contradictions without changing authority.","counterfactual_removal":"The hazardous stale-active population remains difficult to identify."},{"slug":"time_to_live_ttl_policy","disposition":"selected_supporting","contribution_type":"OPERATIONAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Use review-by dates or renewable leases, never automatic invalidation or destruction.","counterfactual_removal":"Owners can still review manually, but neglected artifacts more readily persist."},{"slug":"tombstone_or_deletion_marker","disposition":"selected_load_bearing","contribution_type":"CORE_CAUSAL","adaptation_or_rejection":"Leave a durable supersession or deletion fact with successor routing.","counterfactual_removal":"Absence becomes ambiguous and stale copies may reappear as apparent authority."}],"causal_chain":["Resolve artifacts and authoritative identities.","Detect contextual staleness and lifecycle triggers.","Apply class policy, holds, value triage, and human validity judgment.","Block disposition where dependencies or reconstruction needs remain.","Mark supersession and move noncurrent material out of authoritative discovery.","Quarantine, audit, archive or destroy, then test restoration and revalidate exceptions."],"baseline":"Ordinary baseline: shared drives or command repositories retain successive files; naming conventions, local knowledge, and manual searches are used to identify the latest version, with cleanup deferred or performed episodically.","nearest_rival":"A centrally curated single-current-plan library with manual archiving. It reduces visible duplicates but lacks systematic dependency gates, exception revalidation, reversible retirement, and tested restoration.","authority_safety":{"affected_parties":["command personnel and units","coalition partners","records, legal, intelligence, and security staffs","forces and civilians affected by resulting decisions"],"decision_authority":"Commanders determine operational validity; designated records, legal, classification, and investigative authorities jointly authorize retention or destruction within their mandates.","authorized_first_step":"Run an eight-week shadow pilot on at most 200 non-live artifacts from one headquarters. Make no repository changes or deletions; compare lifecycle classifications with expert adjudication and measure stale-item retrieval, false flags, search time, dependency misses, and simulated restore success.","excluded_actions":["automatic cancellation of an order because of age","destruction or visibility change during the pilot","alteration of live operational guidance","bypassing legal, investigative, classification, coalition, or records holds","treating low access as proof of low strategic value"],"halt_rollback":"Halt if a live artifact is included, a hold or dependency is missed, access controls are weakened, or false-stale classifications exceed the authority's preset tolerance. Revoke pilot labels, preserve logs, and restore the untouched baseline index."}},"negative_tests":{"strongest_counterevidence":"Existing command-publication and records controls may already identify one authoritative version, enforce rescission, and preserve required history; apparent duplication may be deliberate resilience rather than harmful sprawl.","analogy_break":"Unlike ordinary stored layers, an old directive may remain binding until explicitly rescinded. Secrecy, disconnected systems, dynamic references, and coalition-held copies can also make a complete inventory or dependency graph unattainable.","failure_condition":"The scheme fails if lifecycle labels acquire de facto command authority, incomplete graphs certify unsafe deletion, archives cannot be restored, or review labor exceeds the search burden removed.","problem_falsifier":"A bounded audit finds that consumers reliably use only canonical current guidance, obsolete artifacts are unambiguously marked and rarely misinterpreted, lifecycle obligations are consistently enforced, and accumulation causes negligible decision or maintenance burden.","intervention_falsifier":"Against the baseline, the pilot does not reduce stale-artifact selection or search time, produces unacceptable false-stale or missed-dependency rates, or cannot restore representative archived artifacts within agreed fidelity and latency limits.","risks":["false precision from composite scores","accidental demotion of still-binding guidance","exposure of classified metadata through inventory aggregation","loss of coalition or external dependencies invisible to the graph","quarantine conflicting with mandatory destruction rules","archive latency during urgent reconstruction","tombstones becoming a new unmanaged layer"]},"null_rationale":null,"classification":{"candidate_kind":"DOMAIN_TRANSFER","prior_art_status":"UNSEARCHED","evidence_maturity":"HYPOTHESIS"},"revision_change_log":{"revision_kind":"ORIGINAL","prior_problem_id":null,"prior_causal_lever_id":null,"problem_changed":false,"causal_lever_changed":false,"conceptual_changes":[],"operational_changes":[],"repairs_addressed":[]},"confidence":0.84,"generator_notes":"Closed-book structural inference from the supplied archetype and domain packet; empirical prevalence, effect size, and novelty were not established."}