{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp03_full320_20260801","cell_id":"invariant_mode_decomposition_design__history_historiography","trajectory_id":"R","attempt_index":0,"candidate_sha256":"41693b313c2a3c1163696506e1a1ac9bdf34cc7dcec545ca569969f430184374","gates":{"G1":{"status":"PASS","reason":"The problem is independently grounded in unstable historical periodization under coupled indicator change, with observable symptoms, consequences, a baseline, and a problem-specific falsifier."},"G2":{"status":"PASS","reason":"The proposal preserves the archetype's transformation, invariant-direction, modal-response, selection, residual, drift, and scope structure while translating each element into bounded historiographical practice."},"G3":{"status":"PASS","reason":"The modal workflow can change periodization judgments by testing whether proposed boundaries remain supported across coupled transitions, held-out intervals, and specification variants; the proposal appropriately limits this leverage to interpretive robustness rather than historical causation."},"G4":{"status":"PASS","reason":"Every archetype component has a domain realization, load-bearing mechanisms have explicit counterfactual-removal tests, and rejected mechanisms are excluded for structurally relevant reasons."},"G5":{"status":"PASS","reason":"Empirical and causal claims are labeled as hypotheses or inferences, applicability remains explicitly untested, the supplied corpus claim is bounded, and no unsupported citation or asserted result appears."},"G6":{"status":"PASS","reason":"The problem falsifier tests whether modal analysis is needed, while the intervention falsifier separately tests whether the proposed modal method outperforms the baseline and nearest rival under preregistered robustness gates."},"G7":{"status":"PASS","reason":"Authority is plural and domain-relevant, the first step is a bounded reversible pilot, prohibited interpretations are explicit, and halt conditions protect against unstable modes, consequential residuals, and representational harm."}},"scores":{"structural_fit":{"score":4,"reason":"The full invariant-mode architecture is preserved, including an explicit transition map, approximate modes, gains, selection criteria, residual checks, drift checks, coupling records, and interpretation limits."},"domain_fidelity":{"score":4,"reason":"The translation respects contested periodization, archival selection, changing meanings, contingency, marginalized actors, and the distinction between model objects and historical causes."},"causal_plausibility":{"score":3,"reason":"The chain plausibly improves robustness of boundary judgments through modal diagnostics and comparative testing, although usefulness depends on a locally stable and estimable transition representation."},"component_translation":{"score":4,"reason":"All named components receive concrete historiographical realizations, and adaptations avoid implying experimental control over the past."},"adversarial_survival":{"score":4,"reason":"The candidate directly addresses nonstationarity, ill-conditioning, coordinate sensitivity, archival bias, semantic mismatch, compression loss, and deterministic overreading with tests or stop rules."},"reframing_gain":{"score":4,"reason":"It shifts continuity-versus-rupture analysis from salient events and isolated indicators toward reproducible coupled-change directions while keeping singular events visible as residual structure."},"practicality_testability":{"score":3,"reason":"The bounded pilot, comparators, held-out evaluation, bootstrap checks, source-subset checks, and rollback are executable, though concrete threshold values and operator-estimation choices remain to be preregistered."},"expected_value_risk":{"score":3,"reason":"The pilot could add transparent robustness evidence at limited reversible risk, while safeguards substantially reduce but cannot eliminate representational bias and false precision."},"novelty_evidence":{"score":0,"reason":"Prior art is explicitly unsearched, so no closed-book evidence establishes novelty relative to existing quantitative historiography or periodization methods."}},"weighted_total":87.5,"disposition":"DEEP_RESEARCH","fabrication_findings":[],"weak_dimensions":["novelty_evidence"],"actionable_critique":[{"priority":"MEDIUM","issue":"The proposal does not establish novelty relative to existing quantitative historiography, dynamic factor methods, or multivariate periodization research.","repair":"Conduct a bounded prior-art review and state which combination of transformation-defined modes, residual gates, and plural interpretive authority is genuinely differentiated.","evidence_boundary":"The packet explicitly marks prior art as unsearched, so novelty cannot be inferred from internal coherence."},{"priority":"MEDIUM","issue":"Operator estimation and acceptance thresholds are not yet specified enough to prevent analyst discretion from determining the modes.","repair":"Preregister the estimator, regularization, uncertainty procedure, conditioning diagnostic, gap rule, residual budget, drift tolerance, and comparator metrics before fitting the pilot.","evidence_boundary":"The candidate supplies the required test families and governance but not their concrete statistical definitions or empirical performance."}],"repairs":[],"improvement_attribution":{"kind":"NONE","reason":"This is an original attempt with no prior candidate, changed identifier, or registered repair against which improvement can be attributed."},"trajectory_replacement":false,"arm_guess":"MECHANISM_PACKET","recommendation":"SUCCESS","tester_summary":"The candidate is a structurally complete and unusually disciplined adaptation of invariant-mode reasoning to historiographical periodization. It preserves contingency and interpretive authority, distinguishes descriptive modes from causes, supplies separate problem and intervention falsifiers, and proposes a reversible comparative pilot. Empirical applicability and novelty remain open research questions, but they are explicitly bounded rather than fabricated and do not defeat the proposed test."}