{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp04_retrieval_first_paired20_20260802","cell_id":"deadweight_loss_reduction__astronomy_astrophysics","round_index":0,"assessments":[{"hypothesis_id":"H1","search_queries":["telescope time allocation oversubscription pressure grade dynamic scheduling observing conditions queue official","observatory telescope time allocation credits scarcity pricing shadow price","Gemini Observatory queue scheduling priority bands observing conditions official band 1 2 3","ESO service mode queue scheduling scientific priority observing constraints official"],"sources":[{"source_id":"H1-S1","title":"Scheduling Service Mode Programmes","publisher":"European Southern Observatory","url":"https://www.hq.eso.org/sci/observing/phase2/SMPhilosophy/SMScheduling.html","source_class":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","claims_supported":["ESO already filters executable observations by current conditions and ranks them using programme priority, constraint difficulty, and user priority.","Condition-aware execution scheduling is therefore an established analogue."]},{"source_id":"H1-S2","title":"Phase 2 process with p2","publisher":"European Southern Observatory","url":"https://www.hq.eso.org/sci/observing/phase2_p115/p2intro/p2Features.html","source_class":"OFFICIAL_PRODUCT_DOCUMENTATION","claims_supported":["Accepted observation blocks enter an instrument queue whose ranking incorporates scientific priority, observing strategy, and likelihood that constraints can be realized.","Users can set priorities within an accepted run."]},{"source_id":"H1-S3","title":"The Gemini Observatory Science Operations Plan","publisher":"Gemini Observatory","url":"https://webarchive.gemini.edu/documentation/webdocs/preprints/gpre26.pdf","source_class":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","claims_supported":["Gemini queue programs specify the poorest acceptable observing conditions and are organized into scientific-priority bands.","Priority bands and condition matching already address much of the proposed allocation boundary."]}],"closest_analogue":"ESO/Gemini condition-aware queue scheduling with scientific-priority bands and user-set within-program priorities.","overlap":"Both approaches match accepted observations to instrument availability and realized seeing, cloud, lunar, or atmospheric conditions; both preserve scientific priority and allow some user expression of relative value.","remaining_difference":"The testable difference is an ex ante scarcity-priced credit budget by instrument and condition band, including protected-access credits and rebates, rather than an operator-side ranking score. A pilot could compare whether this price-and-rebate mechanism changes requested-condition choices and priority-weighted completion beyond existing queue scheduling.","classification":"POSSIBLE_DISTINCTION","disposition":"ADVANCE","rationale":"The closest systems already perform dynamic condition and priority matching, so the broad allocation idea is not new. The explicit scarcity-weighted credit budget, rebate rule, and protected-access accounting were not present in the opened analogues and define a bounded comparative pilot."},{"hypothesis_id":"H2","search_queries":["astronomy archive duplicate observation checker proposal archival data recommendation","astronomy archive dataset recommendation system scientific project archival reuse","Scientific Dataset Discovery via Topic-level Recommendation","ALMA archive similarity search rich metadata archival research"],"sources":[{"source_id":"H2-S1","title":"Duplicate Observations","publisher":"ALMA Science Portal at ESO","url":"https://almascience.eso.org/proposing/call-for-proposals/duplications","source_class":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","claims_supported":["ALMA requires proposers to check both archived observations and projects still in the queue for technical duplication.","The checks compare sky location and observing parameters, and duplications require scientific justification."]},{"source_id":"H2-S2","title":"JWST Observation Duplication Checking","publisher":"Space Telescope Science Institute","url":"https://jwst-docs.stsci.edu/jwst-opportunities-and-policies/jwst-general-science-policies/jwst-observation-duplication-checking","source_class":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","claims_supported":["JWST provides archive and duplication-search tools before submission and performs a staff duplication check after acceptance.","Existing checks focus on whether proposed and existing or planned observations are duplicative."]},{"source_id":"H2-S3","title":"Common Archive Observation Model","publisher":"International Virtual Observatory Alliance","url":"https://www.ivoa.net/documents/CAOM/","source_class":"STANDARD","claims_supported":["CAOM standardizes descriptive metadata for astronomical observations and supports archive discovery queries.","A cross-archive compatibility layer could build on an existing standardized observation model."]},{"source_id":"H2-S4","title":"Scientific Dataset Discovery via Topic-level Recommendation","publisher":"arXiv","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.03399","source_class":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","claims_supported":["A published system represents research projects and datasets in a shared topic space and recommends datasets for a project query.","Project-to-dataset recommendation is therefore an existing general research analogue."]}],"closest_analogue":"The combination of ALMA/JWST proposal-duplication portals, IVOA observation metadata, and topic-level scientific-dataset recommendation.","overlap":"Existing systems expose archival coverage and instrument metadata, identify possible duplicate observations, and can recommend datasets from a representation of a research project.","remaining_difference":"The remaining testable difference is an astronomy-specific clearinghouse that scores scientific and operational compatibility—including calibration, data rights, and compute requirements—and measures substitution away from requested new telescope hours rather than retrieval relevance alone.","classification":"POSSIBLE_DISTINCTION","disposition":"ADVANCE","rationale":"Most constituent capabilities exist, including general project-to-dataset recommendation. The proposed integration into the observing-proposal decision with explicit rights, calibration, compute, and new-hour substitution outcomes remains distinguishable enough for a bounded test."},{"hypothesis_id":"H3","search_queries":["site:stsci.edu HST target of opportunity activation pre-approved proposal rapid turnaround official disruptive TOO","site:jwst-docs.stsci.edu target of opportunity activation approval preauthorized official response time","site:eso.org Rapid Response Mode target opportunity automatic trigger observations minutes official","transient follow-up telescope network automated triggering pre-authorized target of opportunity research paper"],"sources":[{"source_id":"H3-S1","title":"Targets of Opportunity and Director's Discretionary Programs","publisher":"Space Telescope Science Institute","url":"https://hst-docs.stsci.edu/hsp/hst-general-science-policies/targets-of-opportunity-and-director-s-discretionary-programs","source_class":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","claims_supported":["HST already defines pre-approved non-disruptive, disruptive, ultra-disruptive, and FlexDay target-of-opportunity classes with bounded activation counts and response times.","FlexDay programs select qualifying events from a larger pool to reduce response time and disruption."]},{"source_id":"H3-S2","title":"Review and Implementation of Target of Opportunity and Director’s Discretionary Time Observations","publisher":"Space Telescope Science Institute","url":"https://hst-docs.stsci.edu/hsp/hst-general-science-policies/review-and-implementation-of-target-of-opportunity-and-directors-discretionary-time-observations","source_class":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","claims_supported":["HST ToO programs are reviewed in advance by the annual allocation committee, have Phase II details already in place, and receive only an internal consistency check at activation.","The policy explicitly recommends pre-specified ToOs for rapid response and preserves scheduling tradeoff review."]},{"source_id":"H3-S3","title":"The H.E.S.S. transients follow-up system","publisher":"Astronomy & Astrophysics / arXiv","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.05458","source_class":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","claims_supported":["H.E.S.S. has operated an automated system that filters and ranks alerts, matches them to predefined science cases, dynamically interrupts schedules, and executes rapid follow-up.","The system retains configurable criteria, operator monitoring, and real-time feedback."]}],"closest_analogue":"HST pre-reviewed ToO activation classes, strengthened by the automated H.E.S.S. transient follow-up system.","overlap":"The analogues preauthorize event classes and observing details, reuse completed review, apply rapid internal consistency checks, bound disruptive activations, preserve operational authority, and track schedule displacement.","remaining_difference":"A duty-officer shot clock and the exact proposed incident/displacement metrics could vary locally, but these are implementation parameters rather than a distinct causal mechanism.","classification":"OBVIOUS_COLLISION","disposition":"REJECT","rationale":"The central intervention—pre-reviewing bounded transient classes so an alert can trigger rapid execution without renewed external review—is already explicit in HST policy and implemented more automatically at H.E.S.S."},{"hypothesis_id":"H4","search_queries":["astronomy data proprietary period waive early release PI archive official","observatory proprietary data release upon publication policy astronomy","milestone based proprietary period astronomy data archive release","HST proprietary period waiver early release data official policy"],"sources":[{"source_id":"H4-S1","title":"How is the proprietary period of service-mode data regulated?","publisher":"European Southern Observatory","url":"https://www.eso.org/cms/faq/how-is-the-proprietary-period-of-service-mode-data-regulated.html","source_class":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","claims_supported":["ESO normally assigns a fixed proprietary period, typically one year, beginning when archive delivery is available.","The countdown is automatic and unaffected by PI activity, illustrating the hypothesized stale-duration rule."]},{"source_id":"H4-S2","title":"User Access and Proprietary Periods","publisher":"Keck Observatory Archive / NASA Exoplanet Science Institute","url":"https://koa.ipac.caltech.edu/UserGuide/access.html","source_class":"OFFICIAL_PRODUCT_DOCUMENTATION","claims_supported":["Keck has default proprietary periods but permits PIs to request different periods on a per-program, per-night basis.","Dataset-level variation in exclusive-access duration is already operationally supported."]},{"source_id":"H4-S3","title":"ALMA Cycle 11 Users’ Policies","publisher":"Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array","url":"https://almascience.eso.org/documents-and-tools/cycle11/alma-user-policies","source_class":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","claims_supported":["ALMA permits justified proprietary-period extensions for data-quality corrections and specified extenuating circumstances.","Extensions are evidence reviewed, but the policy does not make early release automatic upon an analysis milestone."]},{"source_id":"H4-S4","title":"Gemini Observatory Archive Help","publisher":"Gemini Observatory","url":"https://archive.gemini.edu/help/index.html","source_class":"OFFICIAL_PRODUCT_DOCUMENTATION","claims_supported":["Gemini normally uses a fixed 12-month period while assigning shorter or zero periods to selected program and calibration classes.","Existing differentiated terms are based mainly on program class rather than observed analysis progress."]}],"closest_analogue":"Observatory-specific variable proprietary periods and justified extension or shortening processes, especially Keck per-program/per-night choices and ALMA evidence-based extensions.","overlap":"Existing archives already vary exclusivity by program or dataset class, support exceptional changes, and preserve special protections while ultimately releasing data publicly.","remaining_difference":"The testable difference is automatic early release keyed to verified completion or inactivity milestones, coupled to evidence-based extension and appeal, rather than a fixed countdown or PI-selected term. It can be tested against originating-team first-publication and secondary-use outcomes.","classification":"POSSIBLE_DISTINCTION","disposition":"ADVANCE","rationale":"Variable and exception-based embargo rules are established, but the opened policies do not condition automatic early release on observed analysis milestones. That distinction is concrete and measurable, although a deeper policy survey would be needed for a final novelty judgment."},{"hypothesis_id":"H5","search_queries":["telescope queue filler observations short gaps backup program official","site:hst-docs.stsci.edu \"Enhanced HST Schedule Gap\" program official","site:subarutelescope.org \"Sukima time\" filler program","telescope gap filler program short schedule gaps overhead disruption"],"sources":[{"source_id":"H5-S1","title":"Introduction to HSC Queue Mode","publisher":"Subaru Telescope","url":"https://subarutelescope.org/Observing/queue/index.html","source_class":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","claims_supported":["Subaru explicitly executes queue programs in gaps in classical-mode schedules and offers a filler-program class.","Scheduling already considers proposal rank, conditions, slew time, and instrument configuration."]},{"source_id":"H5-S2","title":"Filler Programs","publisher":"National Radio Astronomy Observatory","url":"https://science.nrao.edu/observing/policies/docs/manuals/users-policy/proposals-call-preparation-and-submission/proposal-preparation/filler-programs","source_class":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","claims_supported":["NRAO offers filler opportunities on all telescopes for flexible programs that can benefit from short scheduling blocks.","Filler programs are pre-proposed and deliberately assigned lower scheduling priority."]},{"source_id":"H5-S3","title":"Gems of the Galaxy Zoos—A Wide-Ranging Hubble Space Telescope Gap-Filler Program","publisher":"The Astrophysical Journal / arXiv","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.01098","source_class":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","claims_supported":["Zoo Gems used a preselected pool of short Hubble observations to occupy otherwise unusable schedule windows.","The project reports executed observations and science-quality results from the gap-filler design."]},{"source_id":"H5-S4","title":"Snapshot Proposals","publisher":"Space Telescope Science Institute","url":"https://ssb.stsci.edu/cdbs/perigee/jyounger/cp_primer/cp11_main17.html","source_class":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","claims_supported":["HST Snapshot programs were specifically designed to insert short, low-constraint observations into gaps left after higher-priority scheduling.","The official design accounts for overhead-inclusive duration, candidate pools, priority, and uncertain completion."]}],"closest_analogue":"HST Snapshot and Zoo Gems gap-filler programs, together with Subaru and NRAO filler queues.","overlap":"These systems pre-vet pools of brief, flexible observations, insert them only after higher-priority work, account for slew or acquisition overhead, and use otherwise idle schedule gaps without guaranteeing execution.","remaining_difference":"Facility-specific numerical thresholds for adjacent-program overhead and quality control could differ, but the proposed queue structure and safeguard logic are already present.","classification":"OBVIOUS_COLLISION","disposition":"REJECT","rationale":"Multiple observatories already operate essentially the same short-gap filler mechanism, and Zoo Gems provides a direct implemented scientific example rather than merely a conceptual analogue."}],"nominated_ids":["H1","H2","H4"],"replenishment_recommended":false}