{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp04_retrieval_first_paired20_20260802","cell_id":"invariant_mode_decomposition_design__political_science","hypothesis_id":"H1","search_queries":["legislative coalition defection spectral eigenvalue roll call vote network stability","roll call vote matrix factorization latent dimensions legislative voting prediction","coalition collapse early warning eigenvalues political science dynamic network","legislative whipping vote prediction targeting concessions combinations grievances","government coalition termination forecasting machine learning grievances party defection legislative votes","political lobbying optimal targeting legislators network influence vote passage","\"Voting Behavior, Coalitions and Government Strength\" PLOS ONE","site:parliament.uk whips role government opposition voting members"],"sources":[{"source_id":"C1","title":"Voting Behavior, Coalitions and Government Strength through a Complex Network Analysis","publisher":"PLOS ONE","url":"https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0116046","source_class":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","claims_supported":["Roll-call agreement networks have been used to reconstruct parliamentary coalitions, measure their cohesion and heterogeneity over time, and estimate government stability.","The method measures each deputy's contribution to coalition modularity and the effect of possible defection, including a critical stability boundary.","The article identifies earlier spectral-decomposition approaches in legislative network analysis, although it adopts community and core detection instead."]},{"source_id":"C2","title":"Partition Decomposition for Roll Call Data","publisher":"arXiv","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/1108.2805","source_class":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","claims_supported":["Roll-call networks have been decomposed into learned basis elements called motivations that represent evolving ideological factors.","The method estimates the dimensionality of legislative action space and reports predictive performance against spatial voting models.","It overlaps with collective latent-mode discovery but does not estimate a vote-transition operator or allocate whip interventions."]},{"source_id":"C3","title":"Joint Modeling of a Matrix with Associated Text via Latent Binary Features","publisher":"NeurIPS Proceedings","url":"https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2012/hash/6c29793a140a811d0c45ce03c1c93a28-Abstract.html","source_class":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","claims_supported":["Low-rank matrix decomposition coupled to legislative text has been applied to roll-call data.","The resulting latent features support prediction of votes on new legislation.","This establishes decomposition-based vote prediction, but not dynamic stability classification or outreach allocation."]},{"source_id":"C4","title":"Influencing a Polarized and Connected Legislature","publisher":"Games and Economic Behavior / Elsevier","url":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0899825623001574","source_class":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","claims_supported":["A formal legislative-influence model represents legislators as directly susceptible to other legislators.","It studies an interest group promising payments conditional on legislators casting the preferred vote.","The overall susceptibility network determines legislators' and parties' relative influence, closely neighboring the hypothesis's network-sensitive intervention logic."]},{"source_id":"C5","title":"U.S. House of Representatives Roll Call Votes, 119th Congress, 2nd Session","publisher":"Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives","url":"https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2026/index.asp","source_class":"OFFICIAL_ORGANIZATION_DATA","claims_supported":["Official records provide vote dates, questions, results, measures, and member-level recorded choices.","They support construction of historical vote states but do not expose grievances, concessions, outreach, or counterfactual whip interventions."]},{"source_id":"C6","title":"Whips","publisher":"UK Parliament","url":"https://www.parliament.uk/site-information/glossary/whips/","source_class":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","claims_supported":["Party whips officially inform and organize members and seek attendance and voting consistent with party policy.","Whips participate in behind-the-scenes negotiation and party leadership discussions, confirming the workflow and stakeholder while providing no evidence of modal decision support."]},{"source_id":"C7","title":"Estimating Spatial Preferences from Votes and Text","publisher":"Political Analysis / Cambridge University Press","url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/abs/estimating-spatial-preferences-from-votes-and-text/C580ED354853271EFA759E289DC73C3A","source_class":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","claims_supported":["A sparse factor model jointly analyzing Senate votes and floor speech estimates the number of latent preference dimensions.","The application recovers stable ideological and leadership dimensions and imputes missing preferences.","This is close to grievance-linked latent-state estimation but remains descriptive and predictive rather than a transition-mode intervention rule."]},{"source_id":"C8","title":"Roll-Call Vote Selection: Implications for the Study of Legislative Politics","publisher":"American Political Science Review / Cambridge University Press","url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/rollcall-vote-selection-implications-for-the-study-of-legislative-politics/FFAD60FB9CA9BBD54F02DE44A1FF0264","source_class":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","claims_supported":["Recorded roll calls can yield systematically distorted estimates of legislator ideal points and party cohesion because roll-call selection is strategic.","Observed roll-call cohesion need not generalize to unobserved votes.","This directly challenges identification of stable collective defection modes from vote histories alone."]}],"proximity":"SUBSTANTIAL_COLLISION","closest_analogues":[{"name":"Dal Maso et al. coalition-stability and possible-defection analysis","similarity":"High: it infers collective coalition structure from voting behavior, tracks cohesion and government stability over time, and evaluates politically consequential defections.","remaining_difference":"It uses agreement-network community, modularity, and coreness measures rather than an estimated transition operator whose eigenmodes are perturbed against passage probability to allocate concessions or outreach.","source_ids":["C1"]},{"name":"Connected-legislature influence models","similarity":"High on the causal neighborhood: legislators' choices are coupled through a susceptibility network, and vote-contingent payments are studied as an intervention.","remaining_difference":"The model is theoretical and network-influence based; the opened source does not demonstrate empirical recovery of weakly damped grievance modes or a coalition whip's prospective outreach recommendation system.","source_ids":["C4"]},{"name":"Roll-call latent-basis and factor models","similarity":"Moderate to high: multiple methods already extract low-dimensional collective factors from votes and related text and use them for prediction.","remaining_difference":"Their factors encode motivations or preferences rather than invariant directions of a fitted vote-transition process, and they do not rank concessions by causal sensitivity of passage probability.","source_ids":["C2","C3","C7"]},{"name":"Existing whip practice plus official roll-call infrastructure","similarity":"Moderate: the stakeholder, pre-vote organization function, and historical outcome data are established.","remaining_difference":"The official materials reveal neither private grievance combinations nor algorithmic allocation of negotiation effort, leaving feasibility and treatment identification unresolved.","source_ids":["C5","C6"]}],"overlapping_components":["Roll-call-derived state representation","Low-dimensional decomposition of collective legislative behavior","Stable latent political dimensions","Coalition community and cohesion estimation","Temporal monitoring of government stability","Member and party contributions to possible defection","Inter-legislator susceptibility networks","Vote-contingent influence interventions","Prospective roll-call prediction","Whip allocation of pre-vote organizational effort"],"remaining_contrastive_claim":"On held-out close votes, a transition-operator eigenmode defined over grievance-linked member states and ranked by passage-probability sensitivity improves prospective coalition-manager outreach allocation over community/core stability scores, latent-factor vote predictors, and marginal legislator-level scores.","claim_falsifier":"The claim would be falsified by a prior publication, patent, or deployed whip product already estimating dynamic collective grievance modes and using their counterfactual passage sensitivity to allocate concessions or outreach, or empirically if preregistered held-out comparisons show no incremental predictive or intervention benefit over the specified baselines after accounting for strategic roll-call selection.","problem_support":"MODERATE","recommendation":"RESEARCH","world_novelty_boundary":"This was a bounded eight-query, eight-source web search and expressly does not establish or imply world novelty; it found substantial component-level prior art and close composite analogues, but no opened source demonstrating the full grievance-linked transition-mode-to-whip-allocation workflow."}