{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp04_retrieval_first_paired20_20260802","cell_id":"layer_decay_and_expiration_management__logistics_supply_chain","hypothesis_id":"H5","search_queries":["supply chain planning override expiration date forecast adjustment owner renewal","SAP IBP key figure override validity period expiration planner adjustment","Oracle supply planning override end date manual forecast adjustment documentation","demand planning forecast overrides temporary expiration workflow","patent forecast override expiration supply chain planning override validity","\"forecast override\" \"end date\" demand planning","\"override\" \"expiration\" \"demand planning\"","judgmental forecast adjustments overrides harmful supply chain research forecast value added"],"sources":[{"source_id":"PA-1","title":"AWS Supply Chain adds new override retention capability","publisher":"Amazon Web Services","url":"https://aws.amazon.com/about-aws/whats-new/2023/09/aws-supply-chain-override-retention-capability/","source_class":"OFFICIAL_PRODUCT_DOCUMENTATION","claims_supported":["Manual forecast overrides can be saved and reapplied automatically across planning cycles.","AWS provides a unified view for managing retained forecast overrides."]},{"source_id":"PA-2","title":"AWS Supply Chain Demand Planning supports multiple override management","publisher":"Amazon Web Services","url":"https://aws.amazon.com/about-aws/whats-new/2023/07/aws-supply-chain-demand-planning-multiple-override-management/","source_class":"OFFICIAL_PRODUCT_DOCUMENTATION","claims_supported":["Forecast overrides can be attributed by who made them, when, quantity, and reason.","Override impact is propagated through and visible across forecast-hierarchy levels."]},{"source_id":"PA-3","title":"Demand plan - AWS Supply Chain","publisher":"Amazon Web Services","url":"https://docs.aws.amazon.com/connect-decisions/legacy/userguide/changing_category.html","source_class":"OFFICIAL_PRODUCT_DOCUMENTATION","claims_supported":["Imported forecast overrides require start date, end date, value, and reason code.","Overrides persist into subsequent planning cycles and retain update history.","Overrides are scoped to selected time periods and can be published into downstream forecast data."]},{"source_id":"PA-4","title":"Oracle Service Parts Planning Implementation and User's Guide","publisher":"Oracle","url":"https://docs.oracle.com/cd/E26401_01/doc.122/e48778/T515331T515343.htm","source_class":"OFFICIAL_PRODUCT_DOCUMENTATION","claims_supported":["Manual forecast overrides may be retained, ignored, or retained only inside a planning time fence on subsequent plan runs.","Retained overrides are reapplied over a newly generated forecast and can feed another plan that recommends replenishments.","The system preserves override behavior across changed bucketization and copied plans."]},{"source_id":"PA-5","title":"What If Scenario Planning - Setup (EP 4528530 A1)","publisher":"European Patent Office","url":"https://data.epo.org/publication-server/rest/v1.2/publication-dates/2025-03-26/patents/EP4528530NWA1/document.pdf","source_class":"GOVERNMENT_OR_REGULATOR","claims_supported":["Planning scenario overrides can be represented through versioned snapshot chains with explicit validity periods.","Override structures distinguish base values from scenario values and update indicators for dependent computed values."]},{"source_id":"PA-6","title":"Good and Bad Judgment in Forecasting: Lessons from Four Companies","publisher":"U.S. Environmental Protection Agency HERO database","url":"https://hero.epa.gov/reference/7175793/","source_class":"AUTHORITATIVE_SECONDARY","claims_supported":["A study of more than 60,000 forecasts at four supply-chain companies found manual adjustment widespread and often counterproductive.","The record reports that planners can be overconfident about their rationales and that only larger adjustments were consistently worthwhile."]},{"source_id":"PA-7","title":"Profit Implications of Judgmental Adjustments to Forecast Inputs: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment","publisher":"INFORMS / Management Science","url":"https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2024.06321","source_class":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","claims_supported":["A large-scale field experiment found forecast-input overrides increased profitability by 4.92 percent on average in one spare-parts retail setting.","Override value varied with SKU margin, lifecycle, and supplier size, showing that blanket expiration could remove beneficial adjustments and should be evaluated using operational outcomes, not forecast accuracy alone."]}],"proximity":"SUBSTANTIAL_COLLISION","closest_analogues":[{"name":"AWS Supply Chain Demand Planning override lifecycle","similarity":"It already combines cross-cycle override persistence, required start and end dates, reason codes, actor attribution, change history, time-period scope, and visibility of hierarchical impact.","remaining_difference":"The documentation does not require affirmative owner renewal at expiry, test committed-order or allocation dependencies before deactivation, or place expired overrides in a reversible quarantine.","source_ids":["PA-1","PA-2","PA-3"]},{"name":"Oracle Service Parts Planning manual-override retention controls","similarity":"It explicitly governs whether manual forecast overrides survive later planning runs, selectively preserves them inside a time fence, reapplies retained changes to regenerated forecasts, and carries them into replenishment planning.","remaining_difference":"Retention is controlled by a plan-level overwrite setting rather than a per-override renewable lease with fresh evidence, named accountability, dependency-gated expiry, and quarantine restoration.","source_ids":["PA-4"]},{"name":"Validity-bounded scenario override snapshot chains","similarity":"The patent describes planning overrides as versioned snapshots with validity periods, fallback to base values, and propagation of changes to dependent computed values.","remaining_difference":"It addresses efficient scenario/version representation rather than accountable expiry of operational overrides, evidence-based renewal, checks against live commitments, or reversible retirement.","source_ids":["PA-5"]}],"overlapping_components":["planning overrides scoped by product and time period","creation-time start and end dates","expiration or validity boundaries","cross-cycle override persistence","creator, timestamp, and rationale metadata","override change history","selective retention or clearing on later planning runs","hierarchical impact propagation","fallback to regenerated or base planning values","versioned planning snapshots"],"remaining_contrastive_claim":"The bounded-search distinction is a default-expiring planning-override lease whose continuation requires fresh evidence from a named owner, whose expiry is blocked by live committed-order or allocation dependencies, and whose expired value is quarantined for reversible recovery before permanent removal.","claim_falsifier":"A preexisting product manual, patent, standard, or documented deployment showing planning overrides with all three linked controls—mandatory evidence-based owner renewal, automated dependency gating against live commitments, and a recoverable post-expiry quarantine—would falsify the remaining contrastive claim; an operational trial showing that these controls do not reduce rationale-less active overrides without increasing expiry-attributable service failures would falsify the treatment claim.","problem_support":"MODERATE","recommendation":"RESEARCH","world_novelty_boundary":"Ordinary web search establishes end-dated forecast overrides, rationale and actor metadata, cross-cycle persistence, selective overwrite or time-fence retention, hierarchical effects, and validity-bounded planning snapshots as prior practice. No opened source established the narrower integrated workflow of affirmative owner renewal plus commitment-dependency gating plus reversible quarantine; this is only a bounded-search boundary, not proof of worldwide novelty."}