{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp05_complete_proposal_portfolio20_20260803","cell_id":"deadweight_loss_reduction__disaster_management","arm":"COMPLETE_PROPOSAL_PORTFOLIO","candidate_id":"cand_dwl_dm_003","proposal_index":3,"version":0,"title":"Expiring Mission Claims for Emergency Generator Reallocation","problem":"During disaster response, an emergency generator may be assigned to a facility from an initial outage report and then remain reserved until a dispatcher manually closes the mission. That rule prevents double-booking and protects facilities against premature withdrawal. It becomes an avoidable allocation wedge when power has stabilized, the facility has closed or reduced its load, or the assigned generator was never accepted, yet the claim remains active while another verified critical facility waits for a compatible unit. The scarcity of generators may be real; the repair targets stale assignments within that scarcity rather than the protective reserve or the quantity available.","actors":["Emergency operations center logistics section","Incident commander or delegated resource-allocation authority","Public and private owners of portable generators","Managers of hospitals, care facilities, shelters, water systems, communications sites, and other eligible facilities","Utility restoration coordinators","Generator technicians, transport contractors, and fuel suppliers","Public-health and critical-infrastructure officials","People dependent on services at requesting facilities","Finance, procurement, and disaster-reimbursement personnel"],"observable_state":"The target condition exists when a generator is recorded as committed or staged for one facility but is not supplying an essential load; its continued need is unconfirmed, reduced, or contradicted by utility and facility status; another authorized request for a technically compatible generator remains queued; and the allocation authority cannot reassign the unit until an open-ended mission is manually released. Asset status, load readings, facility confirmation, utility status, transport readiness, compatibility, and mission timestamps can distinguish stale claims from genuine deployment or reserve needs.","consequence":"Usable generation capacity can remain idle or underloaded while another eligible facility delays essential operations, adopts a lower-value substitute, or consumes a scarcer backup resource. Premature reallocation could instead interrupt a facility during unstable grid restoration, so assignment expiry must preserve continuity, reserve, compatibility, and accountable command.","affected_objective":"Route scarce emergency generation to verified critical loads as conditions change while preserving continuity of service, life-safety priorities, technical compatibility, reserve capacity, and incident-command accountability.","intervention":"Replace open-ended generator mission claims with time-bounded, renewable claims for a narrowly defined asset pool. Each assignment carries a confirmation deadline, named facility contact, expected load, grid-status field, compatibility record, and release conditions. Claims renew when continuing need is confirmed. Apparent restoration initiates a protected stabilization window rather than immediate recall. After the window, a claim may be released only through prescribed multi-source verification or an authorized facility decision. Released units enter a ranked queue of compatible, verified requests; life-safety priority classes and a minimum contingency reserve remain unchanged. A shadow phase precedes any live pilot, and the temporary protocol expires unless affirmatively renewed.","structural_mapping":[{"archetype_element":"Value-blocking wedge","domain_realization":"An open-ended mission assignment prevents an idle or no-longer-needed generator from being reallocated without manual closure."},{"archetype_element":"Blocked beneficial activity","domain_realization":"A compatible generator and a verified critical load cannot be connected even though reassignment would improve use of the fixed emergency asset pool."},{"archetype_element":"Visible shortage and idle capacity","domain_realization":"An eligible request waits while an assigned unit is staged, declined, disconnected, or materially underused under a stale claim."},{"archetype_element":"Protected purpose","domain_realization":"Mission control prevents double-booking, premature withdrawal, unsafe connection, reserve depletion, reimbursement ambiguity, and disruption during unstable utility restoration."},{"archetype_element":"Specific redesign lever","domain_realization":"Make claims renewable and conditionally expiring, with stabilization windows, verified release, compatibility screening, priority rules, and a protected reserve floor."},{"archetype_element":"Affected-party incidence","domain_realization":"Newly served facilities may gain continuity, while relinquishing facilities bear reconfirmation work and could face risk if status evidence is wrong; logistics teams absorb monitoring and transport burdens."},{"archetype_element":"Implementation boundary","domain_realization":"The pilot covers a designated subset of dispatchable generators and verified facility requests under one incident command, excluding continuously loaded units and assets outside the authority's control."},{"archetype_element":"Monitoring and rollback","domain_realization":"Wrongful release, continuity gaps, conflicting status, failed transport, compatibility rejection, fuel burden, queue displacement, reserve erosion, and subgroup incidence trigger review or suspension."}],"mechanism_mapping":[{"mechanism_slug":"distortion_reduction_review","role":"Separate total generator scarcity from value loss caused by stale claims by reconstructing each asset's assignment, acceptance, load, facility status, reserve function, and authority constraints.","counterfactual_removal":"Without this review, the protocol could treat an operating, stabilizing, incompatible, or legitimately reserved generator as idle and confuse scarcity with distortion."},{"mechanism_slug":"quota_or_allocation_rule_review","role":"Preserve the legitimate cap and priority classes while replacing indefinite first assignments with renewable claims and an authorized reallocation rule responsive to current need.","counterfactual_removal":"Without allocation-rule repair, improved status data would reveal idle capacity but leave dispatchers unable to reopen and reassign it."},{"mechanism_slug":"matching_improvement_program","role":"After a claim is validly released, pair the generator with queued requests using electrical compatibility, load, connection equipment, transport, fuel, technician, and priority requirements rather than queue position alone.","counterfactual_removal":"Without compatibility-based matching, released capacity could be sent to an unusable site, recreating delay and transport waste despite repairing the stale claim."},{"mechanism_slug":"impact_assessment_table","role":"Track effects on relinquishing facilities, receiving facilities, asset owners, logistics staff, fuel and transport providers, reserve beneficiaries, and populations dependent on each facility, alongside protected constraints and adjustment triggers.","counterfactual_removal":"Without an incidence register, improved aggregate utilization could conceal continuity risk, repeated burden on less influential facilities, excessive staff workload, or erosion of contingency protection."},{"mechanism_slug":"regulatory_simplification_pilot","role":"Test renewable claims on a small asset pool using retrospective replay, shadow dispatch, automatic expiry of the pilot, protected exclusions, and immediate reversion to ordinary mission control.","counterfactual_removal":"Without bounded testing, the authority would have to alter live command rules broadly before learning whether verification and stabilization safeguards prevent wrongful release."},{"mechanism_slug":"cost_benefit_assessment_protocol","role":"Compare recovered asset availability and critical-service continuity with confirmation, telemetry, transport, reconnection, fuel, staffing, reserve, and wrongful-release costs under alternative expiry and stabilization assumptions.","counterfactual_removal":"Without a full welfare and sensitivity review, higher generator movement or utilization could be mistaken for improvement even when transfers add risk or merely shift burdens."}],"causal_chain":["A disaster produces more verified requests for emergency power than the immediately dispatchable generator pool can satisfy.","Dispatchers assign units using initial facility status, compatibility, priority, and reserve rules.","Some facility conditions subsequently change, but open-ended mission claims remain active until manually closed.","A distortion review identifies claims for units that are not serving an essential load while distinguishing them from operating, stabilizing, incompatible, or protected-reserve units.","The renewable-claim protocol requests confirmation and applies a stabilization window plus authorized multi-source release rules.","Valid continuing claims remain protected; stale claims are closed without changing the total generator cap, life-safety priorities, or reserve floor.","Released units are matched to technically compatible, verified requests and dispatched only when connection, transport, fuel, and technician requirements are satisfied.","Previously stranded capacity can then serve a higher-priority current load rather than remaining locked to an obsolete assignment.","Monitoring determines whether the protocol reduces stale commitments without creating continuity gaps, unsafe transfers, reserve erosion, inequitable displacement, or excessive coordination burden.","The allocation authority renews, adjusts, narrows, or terminates the protocol based on the bounded evidence."],"baseline":"Generator assignments remain active until dispatch staff receive and process an explicit release, cancellation, or mission-completion notice. Utility restoration, facility closure, reduced load, declined delivery, or nonacceptance may be recorded in separate channels without automatically reopening the allocation. New requests wait for an unassigned unit, new procurement, or manual reassignment. Existing technical, priority, ownership, and reserve rules govern dispatch.","nearest_rivals":["Acquire or borrow additional generators; this is stronger when total compatible supply, rather than stale assignment, is the binding constraint.","Improve asset and facility status reporting without changing assignment authority; this is stronger when dispatchers may already reallocate promptly once reliable information arrives.","Create a manual mission-closure surge team; this may repair a temporary administrative backlog without changing the allocation rule.","Prioritize utility restoration or install permanent facility resilience systems; these reduce dependence on portable generators but may not address current incident allocation.","Use load shedding, shared microgrids, or smaller generators to serve multiple facilities; this is stronger when divisible technical capacity, rather than assignment persistence, is the main opportunity.","Retain open-ended claims with a larger contingency reserve; this is preferable when grid restoration is highly unstable or wrongful recall cannot be made acceptably reversible."],"remaining_contrastive_claim":"The protocol is preferable only when a legitimate generator shortage coexists with identifiable stale mission claims and the allocation authority can verify release without compromising continuity. Its advantage is reopening obsolete assignments inside a protected cap, not manufacturing capacity or merely improving search. If units are continuously needed, technically incompatible, inaccessible, outside the authority's control, or already promptly released when status changes, acquisition, telemetry, resilience, or load-management rivals should be selected.","authority_safety":{"decision_authority":"The incident commander or formally delegated logistics authority controls the pilot and all reallocations. Asset owners retain rights specified by existing agreements. Facility managers confirm operational need; utility status supports but does not alone determine release. Qualified technicians control electrical compatibility, disconnection, transport, and reconnection safety.","authorized_first_step":"Retrospectively replay a bounded set of closed generator missions from one exercise or incident record. Apply proposed confirmation deadlines, stabilization windows, reserve rules, compatibility checks, and release criteria without changing any historical or live dispatch. Compare the shadow allocation sequence with recorded facility status and identify every proposed release requiring human adjudication.","excluded_actions":["Changing live generator assignments during the retrospective first step","Recalling a generator that is supplying an essential load","Using a single telemetry signal, utility estimate, or unanswered message as sufficient proof of release","Reducing the authorized contingency reserve below its existing floor","Overriding life-safety priority, electrical compatibility, grounding, transfer-switch, fuel, transport, technician, or site-access requirements","Reallocating assets outside the incident command's or owner's authority","Penalizing a facility for renewing a substantiated claim","Using payment or political influence to alter emergency priority","Treating increased asset movement as evidence of benefit without accounting for disruption and logistics costs","Making expiring claims permanent without affirmative legal, operational, and evidentiary review"],"halt_rollback":"Do not begin live testing if mission authority, asset ownership, facility contacts, reserve rules, compatibility records, or release verification are unreliable. During a live pilot, pause all protocol-driven releases after any continuity gap caused by wrongful recall, unsafe disconnection, conflicting facility status, reserve-floor breach, failed receiving-site connection, loss of audit records, or material priority violation. Restore the ordinary mission-control rule, return or replace an affected unit where operationally safe, review all pending expirations, notify responsible facilities and asset owners, and require affirmative command approval before resuming."},"negative_tests":{"strongest_counterevidence":"Retrospective replay shows that apparently idle units were serving stabilization, contingency, compatibility, access, or imminent-load functions, or that dispatchers already released them as soon as safe confirmation was available. It would also be strong counterevidence if confirmation and transport burdens consumed the capacity the protocol purported to recover.","problem_falsifier":"All dispatchable compatible generators are operating, in transit, under a justified stabilization hold, or required for the protected reserve; queued requests instead lack connection equipment, fuel, technicians, access, or lawful eligibility. In that state, the binding problem is supply or deployment capability rather than stale allocation.","intervention_falsifier":"A bounded live test produces no usable earlier reallocations after verification and logistics are counted, or causes unacceptable wrongful releases, continuity gaps, unsafe transfers, priority errors, reserve erosion, strategic overstatement of need, or distributional harm that cannot be corrected within the pilot.","risks":["A facility loses backup power during unstable grid restoration or renewed outage.","Incomplete or delayed status signals cause an incorrect expiration decision.","Facilities exaggerate expected load or repeatedly renew claims defensively, preserving the wedge.","Frequent transfers increase transport, connection, equipment-damage, worker-safety, and fuel risks.","A technically incompatible unit is dispatched to a waiting site.","The protocol erodes the contingency reserve or leaves no unit for a sudden life-safety request.","Influential facilities obtain easier renewals than less connected facilities.","Cybersecurity or records failures corrupt asset, load, or facility-status information.","Local optimization of generator utilization disrupts broader utility-restoration or infrastructure plans.","Staff confirmation and audit work recreate the original delay elsewhere in the process."]},"next_evidence_step":"Using a bounded set of closed mission, asset, facility, utility, transport, fuel, and load records, reconstruct when each generator was requested, reserved, accepted, connected, loaded, stabilized, released, moved, or returned. Blind a review team to the historical dispatch outcome and have it apply several proposed confirmation and stabilization rules while preserving the recorded reserve and priority structure. For every shadow release, test whether a compatible queued request, safe transport path, technician, connection equipment, and fuel support were simultaneously available. Report false-release candidates, unresolved status conflicts, proposed reallocations, staff decision burden, receiving-site failures, and incidence by facility type. Vary confirmation intervals, stabilization windows, reserve floors, and verification requirements; do not project an incident-wide effect size.","prior_art_status":"UNSEARCHED","diversity_from_prior_proposals":"Proposal 1 concerns post-disaster building reoccupancy and repairs a professional-authority wedge by delegating bounded clearance decisions to credentialed mutual-aid inspectors. Proposal 2 concerns evacuation shelter admission and repairs a household eligibility wedge through a segregated companion-animal pod. This proposal concerns scarce equipment dispatch during response and repairs a stale quantity allocation through renewable generator mission claims, verified release, and compatibility-based reassignment. It neither delegates inspection authority nor changes shelter admission. Its assets, actors, protected purposes, observable state, intervention, causal sequence, failure modes, and evidence records are distinct from both earlier proposals, and it can be adopted independently of either.","revision_record":{"parent_version":null,"progress_targets_addressed":[],"conceptual_changes":[],"operational_changes":[],"evidence_changes":[],"claim_changes":[]}}