{"schema_version":1,"research_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp05_external_evaluation_20260803","source_assessment_id":"layer_decay_and_expiration_management__cognitive_science:P3:v0","cell_id":"layer_decay_and_expiration_management__cognitive_science","search_queries":["site:faa.gov shift handover operational control room checklist communication stale information","control room shift handover logbook situation awareness study stale information","ISO 11064 control room shift handover standard operator logbook","NTSB shift turnover communication control room handoff recommendation","site:hse.gov.uk shift handover logbooks communication major accident hazards guidance","site:faa.gov \"position relief briefing\" checklist order 7110.65","site:nrc.gov operator shift turnover logbook control room requirements","site:energy.gov control room shift turnover logbook procedure","electronic shift logbook active items archive resolved status product shift handover software","Hexagon j5 shift handover outstanding items electronic operations logbook official","Honeywell electronic logbook shift handover active items official product","control room logbook information overload old entries shift handover study","BLS 2025 median pay software developers 2024 occupational outlook handbook","BLS employer costs employee compensation December 2025 professional workers per hour","GSA CALC human factors engineer hourly rate 2025","OMB cost estimate software pilot labor hours prototype usability study","\"stale\" \"shift handover\" logbook","\"obsolete\" information \"shift handover\" control room","\"information overload\" \"shift handover\" operators logbook","\"carry forward\" handover notes resolved logbook","site:archives.gov records disposition legal hold destruction retention schedule official","site:archives.gov records management disposition authority destroy records only after retention schedule","site:nist.gov archive restore testing contingency planning backups restoration test official","site:gov.uk records retention legal hold destruction operational logs guidance","\"Identified handover tools and techniques in high-risk domains\" DOI","\"Identified handover tools\" distributed situation awareness full text","site:pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov handover tools high-risk domains distributed situation awareness","site:researchportal.port.ac.uk \"Identified handover tools and techniques\""],"sources":[{"source_id":"s1","title":"Shift handover","publisher":"UK Health and Safety Executive","url":"https://www.hse.gov.uk/humanfactors/topics/shift-handover.htm","source_class":"GOVERNMENT_OR_REGULATOR","publication_date":"undated; accessed 2026-08-03","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["Accurate transfer of task-relevant information is necessary for safe continuity across shifts.","Handover failures have contributed to major accidents.","Handover should combine written and verbal communication, cross-checking, adequate time, operator-centered displays, and end-user involvement."]},{"source_id":"s2","title":"Appendix D: Standard Operating Practice for the Transfer of Position Responsibility","publisher":"US Federal Aviation Administration","url":"https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/ATpubs/ATC/AppdxD.html","source_class":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","publication_date":"2014-04-03","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["FAA operational facilities use an authorized position-relief process with current-status displays, written notes, checklists, verification, and shared responsibility.","FAA states that pertinent information is forgotten or incompletely covered when operators rely on memory without systematic reminders.","A facility air traffic manager is an identifiable authorizer for alternative relief procedures."]},{"source_id":"s3","title":"Effective Shift Handover","publisher":"Honeywell-led Abnormal Situation Management Consortium","url":"https://process.honeywell.com/content/dam/process/en/documents/document-lists/doc_asm-consortium/white-papers/July%2031%202011%20-%20Effective%20Shift%20Handover.pdf","source_class":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","publication_date":"2011-07-31","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["A within-groups refinery simulation compared a checklist-integrated electronic logbook with a less-structured logbook.","The structured condition significantly improved expected information recorded by 18.63%; recall and probe-answer differences favored it but were only exploratory trends.","Structured handovers took 15.84% longer on average, demonstrating a workflow-burden tradeoff.","The study did not test cue expiration, semantic staleness detection, capacity-bounded demotion, or archive reconstruction."]},{"source_id":"s4","title":"Safe Communication at Shift Handover: Setting and Implementing Standards","publisher":"The Keil Centre; hosted by UK Health and Safety Executive","url":"https://www.hse.gov.uk/humanfactors/assets/docs/standards.pdf","source_class":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","publication_date":"1999","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["A large UK refinery initiated a collaborative review, pilot, and site-wide rollout because management saw room to improve handovers.","Observed logs were mainly unstructured and historical; personnel valued structured logs for reducing unnecessary detail and passing relevant information.","Structured logs were implemented for about 55 posts; 66% of 38 interviewed personnel reported a prior need for improvement, and operators emphasized participation in design.","The project identifies refinery management, team leaders, process engineers, operators, and post-holders as concrete adopters and implementers."]},{"source_id":"s5","title":"Carry It Forward","publisher":"LogBook","url":"https://trylogbook.com/carry-it-forward/","source_class":"COMMERCIAL_FIRST_PARTY","publication_date":"2021; exact page date not displayed","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["Existing electronic operational logbooks already distinguish record persistence from continuing operational relevance.","Carry-forward notes have a relevance interval, remain prominent in current views until ended, then fall into history.","Existing implementations can preserve authorship, removal authorization, historical duration, and sign-offs while retiring a note from current prominence."]},{"source_id":"s6","title":"Create an Operations Logbook Entry—j5 Shift Operations Management Help, Version 30","publisher":"Hexagon","url":"https://docs.hexagonali.com/r/en-US/j5-Shift-Operations-Management-Help/Version-30/1046070","source_class":"OFFICIAL_PRODUCT_DOCUMENTATION","publication_date":"undated; Version 30","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["A commercial operations-logbook product already captures event time, status, priority, equipment, attachments, and configurable categories.","Entries can have Open, On Hold, Closed, or Cancelled status and can be included in or excluded from the handover report.","Structured status and handover-selection workflows are established product capabilities, narrowing the proposal's incremental claim."]},{"source_id":"s7","title":"Scheduling Records","publisher":"US National Archives and Records Administration","url":"https://www.archives.gov/records-mgmt/scheduling/sch-records","source_class":"GOVERNMENT_OR_REGULATOR","publication_date":"2025; page metadata","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["Federal records cannot be destroyed without approved disposition authority; disposition rules distinguish active use, retention, transfer, and destruction.","NARA warns that individual 'when no longer needed' judgments can cause over-retention or premature destruction.","Automated disposition needs fixed, consistently applied retention rules, with heightened care for legal rights, accountability, discovery, privacy, and access restrictions.","The specific legal authority for operational cues depends on the organization and record class; NARA rules are directly applicable only to US federal records."]},{"source_id":"s8","title":"Worldwide Technology GSA MAS Authorized Pricelist and Terms","publisher":"US General Services Administration","url":"https://www.gsaadvantage.gov/ref_text/GS35F400GA/10WBAR.3WMO5F_GS-35F-400GA_WWT022626TERMS.PDF","source_class":"GOVERNMENT_OR_REGULATOR","publication_date":"2026","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["For the 2026-04-26 to 2027-04-25 period, listed hourly rates include $112.62 for a user-experience consultant, $120.97 for a project manager, $132.44 for a front-end engineer, $155.39 for a senior software engineer, and $126.19 for a business analyst.","These labor rates provide a public resource-equivalent basis for scoped cost bands but are not a vendor quotation for this intervention."]}],"problem_evidence":{"support":"MODERATE","rationale":"Official guidance and field studies establish that incomplete, irrelevant, or poorly structured handover information creates consequential safety and situation-awareness problems. Existing carry-forward products explicitly manage the end of a note's operational relevance. However, the searched sources do not quantify how often resolved or superseded cues remain visibly active on contemporary control-room boards, so the candidate's specific stale-accumulation prevalence remains unmeasured.","source_ids":["s1","s2","s3","s4","s5"]},"stakeholder_evidence":{"support":"STRONG","rationale":"HSE identifies organizations and end users as responsible for safe handover design; FAA prescribes an authorized process and identifies the facility air traffic manager as an authorizer; and a refinery management team, process engineers, team leaders, and operators conducted and accepted a site-wide structured-log rollout. This demonstrates adopter and authorizer classes with expressed need, though not demand for the candidate's entire lifecycle bundle.","source_ids":["s1","s2","s4"]},"prior_art":{"proximity":"SUBSTANTIAL_COLLISION","closest_analogues":[{"name":"LogBook Carry Forward Notes","similarity":"Nearly the same central transition: an operational note is prominent while relevant, has an end-of-relevance time, then recedes into searchable history while authorship and removal authorization remain available.","remaining_difference":"The candidate adds semantic contradiction detection, creation-time review horizons, an explicit active-display capacity, protected warm-tier demotion, dependency gates, and archive-restore testing; their combined performance advantage is untested.","source_ids":["s5"]},{"name":"Hexagon j5 Operations Logbook and Handover Selection","similarity":"Already provides structured operational events with time, status, priority, equipment association, attachments, and explicit selection for a handover report.","remaining_difference":"The opened documentation does not establish automatic semantic-staleness detection, capacity-triggered demotion, or reconstruction drills.","source_ids":["s6"]},{"name":"FAA Position-Relief SOP and Status Information Areas","similarity":"Established safety-critical practice already uses current-status displays, written notes, checklists, cross-checking, assigned responsibility, and facility authorization to minimize omissions and workload.","remaining_difference":"It is a handover procedure rather than a full temporal lifecycle and archival system for accumulated cues.","source_ids":["s2"]},{"name":"Structured refinery logbook programs","similarity":"Structured logs, post-specific information categories, operator co-design, pilot deployment, training, auditing, and site-wide rollout are established practices with measured user acceptance and an experimental comparator.","remaining_difference":"The studies address completeness and relevance at handover, not explicit expiry, safe demotion, dependency-aware retention, or historical board-state restoration.","source_ids":["s3","s4"]},{"name":"Formal records scheduling","similarity":"Established records practice already separates active use from retention and final disposition, requires defined authority, and supports event- or time-based lifecycle rules.","remaining_difference":"Records schedules govern lawful preservation and destruction, not which operational cues should occupy a capacity-bounded attention surface.","source_ids":["s7"]}],"distinctive_claim_remaining":"In an authorized read-only control-room simulation, adding semantic staleness flags, renewable review deadlines, a capacity-bounded active tier with protected demotion, and reconstructable history to an established status/carry-forward logbook will increase correct rejection of superseded cues without reducing detection of designated unresolved safety conditions or exceeding the handover time budget, relative to both a chronological board and a priority-sorted resolved-checkbox board.","confidence":"HIGH"},"implementation_evidence":{"support":"MODERATE","rationale":"Core data and workflow elements—timestamps, status, priority, equipment links, handover selection, relevance intervals, current/history views, signatures, retention schedules, and automated disposition notifications—are established. A read-only shadow prototype is technically straightforward. Evidence is missing for reliable semantic staleness classification, complete dependency mapping, site-specific integrations, archive reconstruction fidelity, and safe human use of automated demotion in a live control room.","source_ids":["s2","s5","s6","s7"]},"scores":{"meaningful_impact":{"score":4,"rationale":"Handover accuracy is safety-relevant, and both official guidance and field research connect failures to accidents or impaired situation transfer. Realized impact of this specific lifecycle bundle is unmeasured.","source_ids":["s1","s2","s3","s4"]},"stakeholder_pull":{"score":4,"rationale":"Regulators prescribe structured handovers, and refinery management and operators participated in pilots and site-wide adoption. Pull is demonstrated for improved structured handover, not specifically for semantic expiry and bounded cue tiers.","source_ids":["s1","s2","s4"]},"incremental_advantage":{"score":2,"rationale":"The core active-until-ended then historical lifecycle is already commercially documented. Remaining enhancements are coherent but have no comparative outcome evidence.","source_ids":["s3","s5","s6"]},"distinctiveness_plausibility":{"score":2,"rationale":"Substantial collision exists with carry-forward notes, status-based handover products, structured logbooks, and formal retention practice. Distinctiveness survives only as a particular integrated bundle and performance hypothesis.","source_ids":["s2","s4","s5","s6","s7"]},"technical_implementability":{"score":4,"rationale":"Most required storage, metadata, workflow, view, audit, and retention primitives are established. Semantic detection and dependency completeness remain material technical uncertainties.","source_ids":["s5","s6","s7"]},"adoption_authority_feasibility":{"score":3,"rationale":"Shift supervisors, facility managers, records officers, and safety authorities are identifiable, but deployment crosses operational, human-factors, records, security, and possibly regulatory authority boundaries.","source_ids":["s1","s2","s4","s7"]},"evidence_readiness":{"score":4,"rationale":"The candidate supplies observable outcomes and feasible comparators, and prior studies demonstrate that simulated handover performance can be measured. Qualified operators, scenarios, and source records still require a partner.","source_ids":["s3","s4"]},"safety_net_benefit":{"score":4,"rationale":"A read-only shadow preserves the official board, while status history and formal retention controls support reversibility and accountability. Quarantine and archive restoration themselves remain unvalidated here.","source_ids":["s5","s7"]},"scalability":{"score":3,"rationale":"Commercial products and the approximately 55-post refinery rollout show that structured handover systems can scale, but each control-room post needs configuration, integration, records classification, training, and validation.","source_ids":["s4","s6"]}},"score_confidence":"MODERATE","costs":{"first_evidence":{"band_2026_usd":"50K_TO_250K","scope":"One read-only prototype, one bounded synthetic or de-identified corpus, three counterbalanced interface conditions, approximately 24 qualified participants, supervisor adjudication, archive-restore exercise, analysis, and report.","confidence":"MODERATE","assumptions":["Approximately 700-1,400 combined hours across UX, software, human-factors, project management, records review, facilitation, and analysis.","GSA-listed 2026 UX, project-management, front-end, business-analysis, and senior-software rates are used as resource-equivalent anchors, not quotations.","An existing simulator or desktop scenario environment is available and no live control-system integration is performed."],"source_ids":["s3","s4","s8"]},"initial_deployment_startup":{"band_2026_usd":"250K_TO_1M","scope":"Single-control-room shadow deployment with connectors to the existing log or historian, lifecycle taxonomy, access control, records mapping, usability and safety review, training, and monitored parallel operation.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["A multidisciplinary team contributes roughly 2,000-5,000 hours.","The existing handover system exposes usable data interfaces.","No safety-certified automatic removal or replacement of the official record is included."],"source_ids":["s1","s4","s6","s7","s8"]},"operational_launch":{"band_2026_usd":"1M_TO_5M","scope":"Production launch across several posts or one facility, including resilient integration, identity and audit controls, migration, cybersecurity review, human-factors validation, records approval, training, support readiness, and staged cutover.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["The launch spans 8-20 specialist FTE-equivalents for part or all of a year plus software, infrastructure, validation, and operator backfill.","Safety-critical changes require substantially more assurance and change management than the shadow prototype.","Existing commercial-logbook functionality can be configured or extended rather than rebuilt completely."],"source_ids":["s1","s2","s4","s6","s7","s8"]},"annual_recurring":{"band_2026_usd":"250K_TO_1M","scope":"Software and hosting, integrations, two to four support/governance FTE-equivalents, lifecycle-policy review, operator training, classification audits, archive-restore drills, and incident support for one facility.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["The facility maintains 24/7 operational support but not a dedicated full development team.","Recurring costs exclude major control-system replacement and enterprise-wide expansion.","Human review remains mandatory for safety pins, contested resolution, holds, and destruction eligibility."],"source_ids":["s1","s6","s7","s8"]}},"verified_pipeline_gates":{"externally_supported_problem":{"status":"YES","reason":"Safety-critical handover failures and the need for relevant, current, structured information are externally established, although stale-cue prevalence is not quantified.","source_ids":["s1","s2","s3","s4","s5"]},"externally_credible_adopter_or_authorizer":{"status":"YES","reason":"Refinery operations management, team leaders, process engineers, shift operators, facility air traffic managers, safety authorities, and records officers are identifiable adopters or authorizers with documented handover responsibilities.","source_ids":["s1","s2","s4","s7"]},"distinct_testable_incremental_claim":{"status":"YES","reason":"After subtracting established carry-forward and status-logbook practice, the candidate retains a falsifiable comparative claim about semantic staleness, bounded demotion, unresolved-cue detection, superseded-cue rejection, time burden, and reconstruction.","source_ids":["s3","s5","s6"]},"bounded_next_evidence_step":{"status":"YES","reason":"A counterbalanced, read-only simulation with three defined interfaces, designated truth states, measurable outcomes, supervisor audit, and explicit halt criteria is bounded and does not require live-board replacement.","source_ids":["s3","s4"]},"no_unresolved_safety_or_authority_stop":{"status":"YES","reason":"For the next step only, synthetic or authorized de-identified data and read-only derived labels avoid operational concealment and record destruction. Site approval and participant-data authorization remain prerequisites, not unresolved design stops.","source_ids":["s1","s2","s7"]},"credible_cost_scope_and_range":{"status":"YES","reason":"Each band is tied to a defined deployment scope and explicit staffing assumptions anchored to public 2026 GSA labor rates; estimates remain resource-equivalent rather than quotes.","source_ids":["s8"]}},"next_evidence_step":"With one control-room partner, pre-register a counterbalanced within-participant simulation using approximately 24 qualified operators and three matched multi-shift scenarios. Compare (A) the existing chronological board, (B) a priority-sorted board with resolved checkboxes and ordinary carry-forward, and (C) the lifecycle shadow board. Seed each scenario with adjudicated unresolved safety cues, resolved cues, superseded instructions, ambiguous dependencies, and one reconstruction task. Primary measures: proportion of designated unresolved conditions identified and proportion of superseded instructions correctly rejected. Secondary measures: review time, unnecessary follow-ups, workload, false-stale rate, warm-tier retrieval, and exact reconstruction of one prior board state. Require zero lifecycle-caused misses of a designated safety-critical cue; halt on any pinned-cue demotion, omitted hold/dependency, unauthorized disclosure, or failed source-board restoration. Falsify incremental advantage if condition C does not outperform B on superseded-cue rejection, is inferior on unresolved-cue detection, exceeds B's median review time by more than 15% or the authorized handover interval, produces more than 5% false-stale classifications after supervisor adjudication, or fails exact reconstruction. This step needs partner fieldwork and cannot be resolved by further bounded public-web research.","blocking_evidence":["No direct estimate of the prevalence, persistence, or consequence of stale active cues in a contemporary control-room handoff corpus.","No comparative evidence that the full lifecycle bundle outperforms ordinary carry-forward plus status, priority, and resolved filters.","No validation data for semantic staleness detection or evidence that its errors are acceptable to operators and supervisors.","No site-specific dependency inventory, retention schedule, legal-hold procedure, access-control model, or destruction authority has been reviewed.","No evidence that a fixed active-cue budget can be set without hiding rare consequential conditions.","No verified end-to-end archive reconstruction result for the proposed data model.","Commercial product pricing, integration effort, and licensing terms were not publicly established; cost bands are labor-based resource equivalents."],"research_disposition":"PARTNERED_RESEARCH_PROGRAM","world_novelty_boundary":"World novelty, patentability, freedom to operate, market size, and realized impact were not measured. The search establishes substantial collision with documented handover procedures, structured logbooks, carry-forward relevance intervals, status-based handover selection, and formal records lifecycles; it does not establish that every element of the proposed integrated bundle has previously been combined or tested.","arm":"COMPLETE_PROPOSAL_PORTFOLIO","candidate_version":0,"controller_recommendation":{"action":"STOP_EMPIRICAL_RESEARCH_NEEDED","repairable":false,"material_progress_observed":false,"progress_targets":["Secure a control-room partner, simulation authorization, participant-data approval, and a records/safety authority for adjudication.","Measure stale, superseded, ownerless, and unresolved-cue prevalence in one bounded corpus before claiming problem prevalence.","Document the incumbent board and commercial-logbook features so the comparator includes ordinary carry-forward, status, priority, acknowledgment, and search.","Pre-register the three-condition simulation, primary outcomes, non-inferiority safety constraint, time threshold, false-stale threshold, and archive-reconstruction criterion.","Implement only a read-only shadow prototype and obtain supervisor audit of every lifecycle label before participant exposure.","Map site-specific dependencies, preservation holds, retention authority, and access restrictions before any operational pilot or deletion feature."],"reason":"Public evidence establishes the broad handover problem, credible adopters, implementation primitives, and substantial prior-art collision. The remaining incremental claim is an outcome claim requiring qualified operators, adjudicated scenarios, proprietary or synthetic operational data, and hands-on simulation. Further web research cannot determine whether the lifecycle bundle improves discrimination without missing safety-critical cues, so empirical partner research is required."},"proposal_index":3}