{"schema_version":1,"research_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp06_external_evaluation_20260803","source_assessment_id":"bounded_rivalry_governance__environmental_climate:P4:v0","cell_id":"bounded_rivalry_governance__environmental_climate","search_queries":["site:usda.gov forest seed transfer climate adjusted seed sources common garden provenance trial","climate-adjusted provenancing forest restoration seed sourcing portfolio primary research","forest provenance trial mixed provenance competition density effects common garden study","official phytosanitary nursery forest seed field trial containment pathogens USDA APHIS","British Columbia climate based seed transfer policy official forest regeneration seedlot selection 2025","site:gov.bc.ca Climate Based Seed Transfer policy forest seed planning zones","US Forest Service assisted migration seed source guidelines forest managers expressed need climate change official","provenance trial genotype environment interaction rank changes drought forest seedlings primary study","\"Genetic diversity reduces competition and increases tree growth\" provenance mixing experiment full text","\"Testing climate-informed seed sourcing strategies in black spruce\"","site:research.fs.usda.gov provenance mixing experiment genetic diversity competition tree growth","forest provenance mixed planting experiment competition growth open access DOI"],"sources":[{"source_id":"S1","title":"Experimental Network for Assisted Migration and Establishment Silviculture (ENAMES)","publisher":"USDA Forest Service Research and Development","url":"https://research.fs.usda.gov/pnw/projects/enames","source_class":"OFFICIAL_ORGANIZATION_DATA","publication_date":"2026","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["The Forest Service and land-manager partners have an expressed need for evidence about which seed sources and establishment practices will sustain future forest function.","ENAMES has installed 32 experimental sites across federal, state, tribal, and other ownerships.","Existing trials cross four climate-scenario seed-source treatments with stock type, planting density, planting configuration, vegetation control, and other silvicultural treatments.","Operational provenance research already uses replicated, multi-site experimental designs and long-term monitoring."]},{"source_id":"S2","title":"Chief Forester’s Standards for Seed Use","publisher":"Government of British Columbia","url":"https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/managing-our-forest-resources/tree-seed/legislation-standards/chief-forester-s-standards-for-seed-use?keyword=2022+al&keyword=management","source_class":"GOVERNMENT_OR_REGULATOR","publication_date":"2022-04","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["A public forestry authority already regulates seed identity, adaptability, diversity, productivity, collection, selection, and transfer.","Climate-based seed-transfer areas are operational standards rather than merely research concepts.","Departures from the standards require consultation, technical review, risk and feasibility assessment, and an approval decision by the Chief Forester.","A land manager cannot treat an experimental score as authority to bypass applicable seed-use rules."]},{"source_id":"S3","title":"Climate-adjusted provenancing: a strategy for climate-resilient ecological restoration","publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","url":"https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/ecology-and-evolution/articles/10.3389/fevo.2015.00065/full","source_class":"AUTHORITATIVE_SECONDARY","publication_date":"2015-06-18","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["Climate-adjusted provenancing already proposes mixtures of local and non-local germplasm drawn across a climatic gradient.","The established rationale is to hedge uncertain future climate while retaining genetic diversity and locally adapted material.","The practice is explicitly conditioned on genetic-risk assessment, including outbreeding and dependent-biota risks.","The circumstances under which this approach is most effective were not clearly characterized in the source."]},{"source_id":"S4","title":"Seed sourcing strategies for ecological restoration under climate change: A review of the current literature","publisher":"Frontiers Media SA","url":"https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/conservation-science/articles/10.3389/fcosc.2022.938110/full","source_class":"AUTHORITATIVE_SECONDARY","publication_date":"2022-10-06","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["A systematic review found 302 experimental provenance studies using common gardens, reciprocal transplants, greenhouse studies, or field trials.","Comparative testing of multiple seed origins in common environments is mature prior art.","The review identifies a continuing gap between provenance research and operational restoration practice.","An identifiable public land manager, Lake County Forest Preserve District, had already tested climate-predictive provenance specifications in seed purchasing."]},{"source_id":"S5","title":"Moving up north: How do translocated seedlings perform in mixed-species plantings at the boreal-temperate interface?","publisher":"Forest Ecology and Management / USDA Forest Service Research and Development","url":"https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/69887","source_class":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","publication_date":"2025","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["A field trial compared planting material associated with present, mid-century, and end-century climate analogues under factorial silvicultural treatments.","Five-year performance depended strongly on cutting treatment, while distant end-century transfers performed worse in some cases.","The authors concluded that longer-term monitoring is needed before early trends can be trusted.","Contained short-duration results cannot establish durable forest contribution by themselves."]},{"source_id":"S6","title":"Genetic diversity reduces competition and increases tree growth on a Norway spruce provenance mixing experiment","publisher":"Elsevier B.V.","url":"https://www.care4c.eu/images/1617458.pdf","source_class":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","publication_date":"2021-10-01","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["A 43-year provenance-mixing experiment found substantial provenance differences in tree and crown form.","Increasing provenance richness reduced measured competition and increased tree and stand growth in that experiment.","Performance depended on spatial mixing pattern as well as provenance count.","The paper reports that provenance rankings can change with stand development and cautions against selection based only on early tests.","The evidence comes from one unusual clone-based Norway spruce experiment and does not establish general effectiveness of the proposed governance bundle."]},{"source_id":"S7","title":"National Seed Laboratory","publisher":"USDA Forest Service","url":"https://www.fs.usda.gov/science-technology/nsl","source_class":"OFFICIAL_ORGANIZATION_DATA","publication_date":"n.d.","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["Seed testing, conditioning, certification, and source identification are established operational capabilities.","Incorrectly adapted or unidentified planting material can cause planting failure, financial loss, disease, or environmental damage.","Certification can preserve unambiguous genetic identity through seeds or seedlings, supporting chain-of-custody feasibility.","Seed certification authority and availability vary by state, leaving jurisdiction-specific workflow requirements."]},{"source_id":"S8","title":"Containment Facility Inspections","publisher":"USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service","url":"https://www.aphis.usda.gov/organism-soil-imports/containment-facility-inspections","source_class":"GOVERNMENT_OR_REGULATOR","publication_date":"2026","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["Where regulated organisms or soil are involved, federal permits and inspected containment facilities may be required.","APHIS, rather than an institutional safety officer, determines adequacy of federally regulated containment.","Plant material and shipments can carry fungal, bacterial, nematode, weed-seed, and other contamination risks.","This authority is conditional and does not itself establish requirements for an entirely domestic trial using unregulated native sources."]}],"problem_evidence":{"support":"MODERATE","rationale":"The broader problem is visible and consequential: official programs are investing in multi-site seed-source trials because future-suitable sources remain uncertain, a systematic review documents hundreds of provenance experiments, and long-term primary research shows that mixture interactions and provenance rankings can differ from early expectations. However, the exact asserted failure mode—supplier-driven propagule pressure causing an early source to capture later planting shares—was not directly measured in the eight sources. The evidence therefore supports seed-source uncertainty, interaction effects, and early-ranking risk more strongly than it supports the proposed competition-governance diagnosis.","source_ids":["S1","S4","S5","S6","S7"]},"stakeholder_evidence":{"support":"STRONG","rationale":"Identifiable adopters and authorizers exist. The USDA Forest Service and partner land managers have installed a 32-site network expressly to answer operational seed-source and establishment questions. British Columbia's Chief Forester already authorizes seed-use standards and reviews proposed alternatives, and the systematic review identifies a forest-preserve district testing climate-informed purchasing specifications. These demonstrate active institutional pull for climate-informed seed decisions, although none expressly requests the full rivalry-governance package.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S4"]},"prior_art":{"proximity":"SUBSTANTIAL_COLLISION","closest_analogues":[{"name":"ENAMES assisted-migration and establishment-silviculture network","similarity":"Multi-site provenance treatments are crossed with planting density, stock, configuration, vegetation-control, and other establishment treatments in partnership with operational land managers.","remaining_difference":"The public description does not show a frozen rivalry rulebook, supplier appeals and foul penalties, complementary portfolio awards, deployment-share caps, or recurring challenger windows.","source_ids":["S1"]},{"name":"Climate-adjusted provenancing","similarity":"Already proposes a climate-gradient mixture that retains local material, hedges forecast uncertainty, preserves diversity, and uses a genetic-risk framework.","remaining_difference":"It is a seed-sourcing strategy rather than a governed contest with equalized resources, audited standings, due process, or explicit winner-lock-in controls.","source_ids":["S3"]},{"name":"Common-garden and reciprocal-transplant provenance testing","similarity":"Comparing several seed origins under shared experimental conditions is established research practice represented by hundreds of experiments.","remaining_difference":"Many studies do not jointly test single-source and mixed-source blocks, supplier manipulation, portfolio selection rules, containment incidents, and out-of-sample deployment performance.","source_ids":["S4","S5"]},{"name":"Vohenstrauß 622 provenance-mixing experiment","similarity":"Directly randomizes many Norway spruce provenances in mixtures and measures competition, growth, spacing, density, spatial pattern, and long-term development.","remaining_difference":"It is one clone-based silvicultural experiment, not a staged selection arena with independent audit, appeals, deployment caps, or challenger cohorts.","source_ids":["S6"]},{"name":"Climate-Based Seed Transfer standards","similarity":"Operational governance already controls source identity, adaptability, diversity, productivity, transfer areas, review, and approval of exceptions.","remaining_difference":"The standards govern permissible seed use but do not create the proposal's head-to-head biological rivalry or portfolio-scoring process.","source_ids":["S2"]}],"distinctive_claim_remaining":"For an authorized restoration program choosing among eligible native sources, the joint package of equalized starting resources, replicated single-source and mixed-source stress blocks, identity and measurement audits, preregistered multidimensional scoring, constrained complementary portfolio selection, deployment-share caps, and later challenger cohorts will predict next-stage establishment and ecological compatibility better—and produce less premature source concentration—than (a) conventional early common-garden ranking, (b) expert climate-transfer selection, or (c) an unscored operational mixture. This is contrastive and falsifiable but untested; the governance package, not provenance testing or mixed sourcing alone, is the remaining distinction.","confidence":"HIGH"},"implementation_evidence":{"support":"MODERATE","rationale":"The component technologies and workflows are credible: agencies already operate replicated multi-site trials; experimental treatments can vary climate analogue, density, configuration, stock, and vegetation control; seed identity and certification workflows exist; and public authorities already review seed-use exceptions. Technical implementation therefore appears feasible. Important gaps remain: the candidate does not specify a species, jurisdiction, site, statistical power calculation, assay plan, data standard, culturally legitimate decision process, or applicable environmental and tribal approvals. APHIS containment evidence applies only conditionally to regulated organisms or soil. Reproduction control, escape monitoring, removal authority, and the validity of short contained trials as proxies for mature forests require site-specific review and live evidence.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S5","S6","S7","S8"]},"scores":{"meaningful_impact":{"score":4,"rationale":"Choosing poorly adapted or overly concentrated seed sources can cause regeneration failure, disease, environmental harm, and loss of adaptive diversity; official multi-site investments indicate that the decision matters.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S3","S7"]},"stakeholder_pull":{"score":4,"rationale":"Forest Service researchers, federal and state land managers, tribal-land partners, British Columbia's Chief Forester, and at least one forest-preserve district are visibly acting on climate-informed seed-source decisions.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S4"]},"incremental_advantage":{"score":2,"rationale":"Common gardens, factorial density and silvicultural treatments, climate-gradient mixtures, portfolio logic, certification, and long-term provenance mixtures already cover much of the intervention. No comparative evidence shows that the additional contest-governance layer improves decisions.","source_ids":["S1","S3","S4","S6","S7"]},"distinctiveness_plausibility":{"score":2,"rationale":"The integrated rulebook-audit-appeal-cap-challenger configuration may be operationally distinctive, but the ecological and experimental core substantially collides with established provenance practice, and world novelty was not assessed.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S3","S4","S6"]},"technical_implementability":{"score":4,"rationale":"Randomization, replicated treatments, source certification, density manipulation, longitudinal measurement, and multi-site deployment are demonstrated capabilities. Species-specific power and duration requirements remain unresolved.","source_ids":["S1","S5","S6","S7"]},"adoption_authority_feasibility":{"score":3,"rationale":"Clear land-management and seed-use authorities exist, but authorization is jurisdiction-specific and may require standards exceptions, risk review, landowner or tribal consent, and additional environmental approvals.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S8"]},"evidence_readiness":{"score":3,"rationale":"A contained experiment can test density, interaction, auditability, and scoring sensitivity, but durable contribution and concentration effects require multi-year field observation; five-year results may still be provisional.","source_ids":["S1","S5","S6"]},"safety_net_benefit":{"score":3,"rationale":"Traceability, limited stages, source-share caps, retained references, containment, and stop rules could reduce irreversible deployment errors, but their net ecological safety benefit has not been demonstrated and containment requirements vary.","source_ids":["S2","S3","S7","S8"]},"scalability":{"score":2,"rationale":"The experimental template is replicable, but results are species-, site-, climate-, and age-dependent, and robust provenance trials require substantial land, seedlings, monitoring, and time.","source_ids":["S1","S4","S5","S6"]}},"score_confidence":"MODERATE","costs":{"first_evidence":{"band_2026_usd":"50K_TO_250K","scope":"Design and run one contained nursery or fenced-microplot mechanism study for approximately 4-8 already authorized sources, replicated single-source and mixed blocks, two stress regimes, chain-of-custody checks, baseline seedling assays, one to two growing seasons of measurement, and preregistered comparator analysis.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["Existing permitted space, irrigation, and basic nursery infrastructure are available.","Approximately 600-1,500 seedlings are used rather than landscape-scale plantings.","The band includes staff time, material handling, identity verification, sensors, data management, and independent analysis but not land acquisition.","No cited source reports a directly comparable budget; this is a resource-equivalent planning estimate, not a vendor quote."],"source_ids":["S1","S5","S7"]},"initial_deployment_startup":{"band_2026_usd":"250K_TO_1M","scope":"Prepare a site-specific protocol and approval package, secure and certify multiple seedlots, propagate standardized stock, establish data and audit systems, prepare several contained field sites, train crews, and install the first replicated blocks.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["One species or a small species set and 2-3 sites are included.","Existing agency or partner land and nursery facilities are used.","Environmental, landowner, tribal, and phytosanitary review is uncomplicated and does not require major infrastructure.","The estimate excludes landscape deployment and long-term endowment."],"source_ids":["S1","S2","S7","S8"]},"operational_launch":{"band_2026_usd":"1M_TO_5M","scope":"Launch a partnered, multi-site, multi-year operational trial with certified sources, factorial single and mixed blocks, treatment delivery, independent audit, ecological monitoring, portfolio-selection analysis, containment response capacity, and limited next-stage validation plantings.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["Approximately 3-6 field sites and 5-10 sources are followed for at least three years.","The project uses existing public or partner land and standard forestry equipment.","The band includes nursery production, installation, field crews, data systems, statistical support, and incident response but not mature-forest monitoring over decades.","No direct cost benchmark was found among the eight sources."],"source_ids":["S1","S2","S5","S6","S7"]},"annual_recurring":{"band_2026_usd":"250K_TO_1M","scope":"Annual survival, growth, stress, competition, pathogen, escape, understory, and data-quality monitoring across the operational sites; source-identity audits; treatment maintenance; stakeholder review; and periodic remeasurement and reporting.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["A 3-6-site network remains active.","Two seasonal field campaigns plus data analysis and independent quality review occur each year.","Major fire, pathogen, quarantine, or removal incidents are excluded and would require contingency funding.","Monitoring intensity can decline after establishment but must continue long enough to detect ranking changes."],"source_ids":["S1","S5","S6","S8"]}},"verified_pipeline_gates":{"externally_supported_problem":{"status":"YES","reason":"External sources establish consequential uncertainty in climate-adjusted seed selection, extensive provenance testing, sensitivity to silvicultural context, mixture effects, and the danger of trusting early performance. The narrower supplier-propagule-pressure mechanism remains less directly supported but does not negate the broader problem.","source_ids":["S1","S4","S5","S6","S7"]},"externally_credible_adopter_or_authorizer":{"status":"YES","reason":"The USDA Forest Service and partner land managers are operating relevant trials, while British Columbia's Chief Forester is an identifiable seed-use authorizer with a documented exception-review process.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S4"]},"distinct_testable_incremental_claim":{"status":"YES","reason":"The complete governance package can be compared prospectively with conventional common-garden ranking, expert climate-transfer selection, and unscored mixtures on later predictive validity and source concentration.","source_ids":["S1","S3","S4","S6"]},"bounded_next_evidence_step":{"status":"YES","reason":"A preregistered contained trial with finite sources, blocks, treatments, comparators, measurements, stop rules, and explicit falsifiers is technically definable without authorizing landscape deployment.","source_ids":["S1","S5","S6","S7"]},"no_unresolved_safety_or_authority_stop":{"status":"UNCERTAIN","reason":"The proposal's contained, native-source restriction is safety-conscious, but no site or jurisdiction is identified. Applicable seed-transfer standards, tribal and landowner authority, protected-species review, reproduction control, escape-removal authority, and phytosanitary obligations therefore cannot be verified. APHIS requirements are conditional on regulated material.","source_ids":["S2","S3","S7","S8"]},"credible_cost_scope_and_range":{"status":"UNCERTAIN","reason":"The scope drivers are visible in existing multi-site trials, but none of the eight direct sources supplies a comparable budget. The four bands are transparent resource-equivalent estimates with low confidence and need a partner-specific work breakdown.","source_ids":["S1","S5","S7","S8"]}},"next_evidence_step":"With one named land-management and research partner, preregister a two-stage contained study for one species and 4-8 already permitted, certified native sources. Stage 1 should randomize equal viable stems and standardized stock across replicated single-source and mixed-source blocks, at least two moisture or heat regimes, and two starting-density conditions; blind source identity where morphology permits; audit custody, treatment delivery, mortality, and raw measurements. Compare four decision rules: current expert or climate-transfer prescription, conventional early-growth winner, unscored equal mixture, and the full bounded portfolio rule. Before planting, fix primary outcomes: survival and recovery after stress, competitive suppression, rank reversal after density equalization, reproducibility, containment incidents, and diversity-adjusted selection. Stage 2 should place only the provisionally selected sources into small authorized validation plots and test whether Stage-1 decisions predict predeclared multi-year establishment outcomes. Falsify the incremental claim if equalizing density does not materially change ranks, mixed blocks add no interpretable interaction information, the bounded portfolio does not improve out-of-sample survival/recovery or reduce concentration relative to comparators, audits and appeals do not change decisions, or containment and monitoring burdens make timely regeneration infeasible. Do not infer mature-forest resilience or authorize landscape deployment from Stage 1.","blocking_evidence":["No head-to-head field evidence compares the full governance package with conventional common-garden ranking, climate-transfer prescription, and unscored mixtures.","No evidence establishes that the exact propagule-pressure and supplier-input failure mode is prevalent in operational forest provenance trials.","No species-, site-, or jurisdiction-specific power analysis, treatment design, duration, or minimum detectable effect is supplied.","No live evidence shows that contained early-stage scores predict durable ecological contribution, mature-stand performance, or response to rare climate and pest events.","No site-specific authority map resolves landowner, tribal, seed-transfer, environmental-review, protected-species, phytosanitary, reproduction-control, and removal authority.","No directly comparable costed work breakdown validates the proposed 2026-USD bands.","No evidence shows that appeals, foul schedules, leaderboards, share caps, or challenger windows add enough decision quality to justify their administrative and ecological monitoring burden."],"research_disposition":"PARTNERED_RESEARCH_PROGRAM","world_novelty_boundary":"This bounded eight-source search evaluates visible problem evidence, institutional demand, feasibility, and proximity to known provenance trials, climate-adjusted sourcing, mixtures, certification, and seed-use standards. It does not measure world novelty, patentability, freedom to operate, market size, or realized impact. Absence of an identical governance package in these sources is not evidence that no such package exists elsewhere.","arm":"COMPLETE_PROPOSAL_PORTFOLIO","candidate_version":0,"controller_recommendation":{"action":"STOP_EMPIRICAL_RESEARCH_NEEDED","repairable":false,"material_progress_observed":true,"progress_targets":["Secure a named land-manager/research partner and document site-specific authority, consent, seed-transfer, biosecurity, containment, and rollback approvals.","Produce a costed work breakdown and statistical power analysis for one species, 4-8 sources, specified treatments, sites, duration, and independent audit.","Preregister the four comparators, decision rules, primary outcomes, missing-data rules, safety stops, minimum detectable effects, and quantitative success thresholds.","Generate live Stage-1 evidence on density equalization, source-by-treatment effects, mixture interactions, measurement reproducibility, custody failures, and containment burden.","Generate multi-year Stage-2 evidence testing whether the bounded portfolio improves out-of-sample establishment and limits premature concentration relative to all comparators.","Demonstrate through ablation or factorial analysis whether the governance additions—audits, appeals, share caps, and challenger access—contribute beyond ordinary provenance-trial practice."],"reason":"Bounded web research establishes a meaningful seed-source problem, credible adopters, implementable component methods, and substantial prior-art collision. It cannot answer the remaining causal claim: whether the integrated governance package improves later ecological decisions over established provenance trials and mixed sourcing. That question requires authorized live trials and longitudinal field outcomes, not additional bounded web search. Under the required controller rule, this empirical-research stop is not repairable."},"proposal_index":4}