{"schema_version":1,"research_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp06_external_evaluation_20260803","source_assessment_id":"catalytic_pathway_enablement__criminology_forensic:P2:v0","cell_id":"catalytic_pathway_enablement__criminology_forensic","search_queries":["site:ojp.gov missing unidentified persons cross jurisdiction coordination DNA identification report","site:namus.nij.ojp.gov forensic services missing unidentified persons case coordination","site:interpol.int Disaster Victim Identification guide authority identification comparison","cross jurisdiction unidentified remains missing persons identification barriers study","site:nist.gov OSAC unidentified remains identification standard jurisdiction data exchange forensic","site:justice.gov missing unidentified persons coordination jurisdiction barriers NamUs law enforcement medical examiner","site:gao.gov missing unidentified persons jurisdiction coordination forensic","NamUs case coordination DNA submission requirements law enforcement medical examiner authorized submitter","official unidentified persons potential match coordination service law enforcement medical examiner comparison submission","NCMEC unidentified deceased child potential match forensic services law enforcement official","Doe Network potential match panel official law enforcement comparison submission","International Commission on Missing Persons data coordination identifications authorities official","site:bls.gov oes compliance officers median annual wage 2025 project management specialists","site:bls.gov occupational employment wages forensic science technicians 2025","site:bja.ojp.gov Missing and Unidentified Human Remains Program funding 2025 eligible entities","site:ojp.gov funding missing unidentified human remains program improve reporting transportation forensic testing identification"],"sources":[{"source_id":"S1","title":"Missing Persons and Unidentified Remains: Opportunities May Exist to Share Information More Efficiently","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-16-515","source_class":"GOVERNMENT_OR_REGULATOR","publication_date":"2016-06-07","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["Missing- and unidentified-person information was fragmented between NCIC and NamUs.","Manual review and duplicate entry produced inefficiency.","Legal access restrictions constrained full integration, although GAO found legally feasible sharing options worth evaluating."]},{"source_id":"S2","title":"Services","publisher":"National Missing and Unidentified Persons System (NamUs), National Institute of Justice","url":"https://namus.nij.ojp.gov/services","source_class":"OFFICIAL_ORGANIZATION_DATA","publication_date":"undated","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["NamUs already employs cleared Cold Case Advisors who consult on cases, assist biometric collection, and facilitate forensic services.","NamUs provides nationwide analytical and forensic support, including DNA, anthropology, and fingerprint services.","This is the closest operational analogue to the proposed standing comparison broker."]},{"source_id":"S3","title":"DNA Analysis and CODIS Searching","publisher":"National Missing and Unidentified Persons System (NamUs), National Institute of Justice","url":"https://namus.nij.ojp.gov/services/dna","source_class":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","publication_date":"undated","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["DNA submissions already use an administrator-mediated request and approval workflow.","Family-reference samples are voluntary, restricted to missing-person searches, and must be collected by authorized criminal-justice or medicolegal personnel.","Submission forms, relationship metadata, laboratory assignment, and a stated 120-day post-approval turnaround show that authority, packet completeness, and downstream capacity are material workflow constraints."]},{"source_id":"S4","title":"Missing and Unidentified Human Remains Program: About the Program","publisher":"Bureau of Justice Assistance, U.S. Department of Justice","url":"https://bja.ojp.gov/program/muhr/about-program","source_class":"GOVERNMENT_OR_REGULATOR","publication_date":"2023-02-02","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["BJA funds states, local governments, medical-examiner offices, laboratories, universities, and qualified nonprofits to improve reporting and identification.","BJA expressly reports case backlogs and agencies lacking staff and technology.","The program requires multidisciplinary prioritization and offers an identifiable funder and adopter class, including services for small, rural, and tribal entities."]},{"source_id":"S5","title":"Case Resources","publisher":"National Center for Missing & Exploited Children","url":"https://www.ncmec.org/ourwork/caseresources","source_class":"OFFICIAL_ORGANIZATION_DATA","publication_date":"undated","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["NCMEC already provides direct analytical support and facilitates DNA, dental, and fingerprint collection for missing and unidentified deceased child cases.","NCMEC connects law enforcement, medical examiners, coroners, families, and forensic specialists.","NCMEC is an established child-scope analogue for a reusable coordination service."]},{"source_id":"S6","title":"Potential Match Panel","publisher":"The Doe Network","url":"https://www.doenetwork.org/panel.php","source_class":"COMMERCIAL_FIRST_PARTY","publication_date":"undated","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["The Doe Network already uses a structured submission form, duplicate and prior-exclusion checks, panel review, and selective forwarding of candidate pairs.","Accepted potential matches are forwarded to both involved law-enforcement agencies, which retain authority to pursue comparison.","This is established prior art for eligibility screening and conservation of scarce investigative capacity, but not for authoritative laboratory-ready packet assembly."]},{"source_id":"S7","title":"Disaster Victim Identification","publisher":"INTERPOL","url":"https://www.interpol.int/How-we-work/Forensics/Disaster-Victim-Identification-DVI","source_class":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","publication_date":"undated; referenced guide updated 2023","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["INTERPOL states that coordinated international effort can accelerate recovery and identification.","INTERPOL supplies coordination services, standardized guides, forms, and software while preserving specialist reconciliation and identification stages.","Its protocols cover information exchange, quality assurance, family support, occupational care, and comparison of antemortem and postmortem data."]},{"source_id":"S8","title":"National Employment and Wage Data by Occupation, May 2025","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics","url":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ocwage.t01.htm?mod=article_inline","source_class":"GOVERNMENT_OR_REGULATOR","publication_date":"2026-05-15","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["The May 2025 national mean wage for forensic science technicians was $79,200, providing a labor-cost anchor.","Brokerage estimates must add benefits, management, privacy and legal expertise, secure systems, and partner time beyond this occupational wage."]}],"problem_evidence":{"support":"STRONG","rationale":"GAO directly documented fragmented records, duplicative manual work, and legal-access constraints, while BJA reports backlogs and agencies lacking staff and technology. NamUs DNA guidance independently demonstrates authorization, administrator approval, forms, relationship metadata, laboratory assignment, and turnaround dependencies. Evidence supports a material coordination problem, although it does not quantify the candidate's narrower interval from nominated pair to accepted cross-jurisdiction comparison packet.","source_ids":["S1","S3","S4"]},"stakeholder_evidence":{"support":"STRONG","rationale":"BJA is an identifiable funder and names eligible state, local, medicolegal, laboratory, university, and nonprofit adopters. NamUs and NCMEC already operate closely analogous facilitation services, demonstrating institutional demand and credible authorizers. No source expresses demand for a new standalone broker distinct from these incumbents.","source_ids":["S2","S4","S5"]},"prior_art":{"proximity":"ESTABLISHED_PRACTICE","closest_analogues":[{"name":"NamUs Cold Case Advisors and forensic-service facilitation","similarity":"Very high: a standing national service already provides case consultation, biometric-collection assistance, analytical support, and facilitation of forensic services for missing and unidentified persons.","remaining_difference":"Public materials do not show the candidate's complete jurisdiction-specific authorization map, laboratory-readiness packet, regeneration metrics, or randomized comparison against ordinary routing.","source_ids":["S2","S3"]},{"name":"NCMEC analytical, biometric, forensic, and Team Adam coordination","similarity":"High within child cases: NCMEC connects families and authorities, facilitates biometric collection, performs long-term reviews, and connects agencies to forensic specialists.","remaining_difference":"The scope is principally children, and the source does not describe a universal cross-jurisdiction comparison-readiness contract or broker turnover assay.","source_ids":["S5"]},{"name":"Doe Network Potential Match Panel","similarity":"Moderate to high for intake selectivity: structured referrals are screened for duplicates and plausibility before being forwarded to both responsible agencies, which retain decision authority.","remaining_difference":"It is a volunteer lead-screening pathway, not an authorized custodian-and-laboratory coordination service handling protected records or assembling comparison-ready packets.","source_ids":["S6"]},{"name":"INTERPOL Disaster Victim Identification coordination, forms, and reconciliation protocols","similarity":"High at the process-pattern level: reusable coordination, standard forms, data exchange, quality controls, and separation of coordination from expert identification are established internationally.","remaining_difference":"It principally addresses mass-fatality events rather than routine domestic candidate-pair referrals and does not establish the proposed U.S. standing broker.","source_ids":["S7"]}],"distinctive_claim_remaining":"Among referrals already scientifically plausible and legally eligible, adding a versioned jurisdiction-and-laboratory-specific authorization map and minimum-data readiness packet to existing coordination services will reduce time and rework to laboratory acceptance across multiple cycles, compared with both ordinary jurisdiction-led routing and existing NamUs/NCMEC advisory routing, without increasing authorization errors, inappropriate admissions, privacy disclosures, staff exhaustion, or downstream workload.","confidence":"HIGH"},"implementation_evidence":{"support":"MODERATE","rationale":"NamUs, NCMEC, Doe Network, and INTERPOL demonstrate that national or cross-boundary coordination, structured intake, selective routing, biometric facilitation, standardized forms, and retained authority are operationally feasible. NamUs guidance also shows that authorized roles, consent, restricted-use indices, administrator approval, and laboratory assignment can be encoded. Feasibility of a separate broker's secure workspace, current multi-jurisdiction authority map, sustainable staffing, legal agreements, and incremental benefit over incumbents remains unverified.","source_ids":["S2","S3","S5","S6","S7"]},"scores":{"meaningful_impact":{"score":4,"rationale":"The underlying identification backlog and fragmented information are consequential, and successful coordination can enable scientifically valid comparisons and answers for families. The proposal cannot solve missing specimens, prohibited disclosure, or laboratory capacity.","source_ids":["S1","S4","S7"]},"stakeholder_pull":{"score":4,"rationale":"BJA funds this problem class and identifies eligible adopters; NamUs and NCMEC already devote staff and infrastructure to closely related facilitation. Pull for a distinct new organization is not established.","source_ids":["S2","S4","S5"]},"incremental_advantage":{"score":2,"rationale":"Authorization maps, a versioned readiness packet, capacity accounting, and regeneration metrics could formalize current work, but the core broker, triage, facilitation, and handoff functions already exist.","source_ids":["S2","S3","S5","S6","S7"]},"distinctiveness_plausibility":{"score":1,"rationale":"The proposal combines established services and practices. Its remaining distinction is a narrow workflow-and-measurement increment, not a clearly new service category.","source_ids":["S2","S5","S6","S7"]},"technical_implementability":{"score":4,"rationale":"Existing organizations demonstrate the constituent workflows. Implementation still requires secure information handling, version control, identity reconciliation, partner agreements, auditability, and exception routing.","source_ids":["S2","S3","S5","S7"]},"adoption_authority_feasibility":{"score":3,"rationale":"BJA identifies eligible entities and NamUs demonstrates authorized participation, but every custodian and laboratory retains disclosure, acceptance, and testing authority; a broker cannot create or centralize those powers.","source_ids":["S3","S4","S6"]},"evidence_readiness":{"score":3,"rationale":"Problem, stakeholder, and analogue evidence are strong, but no direct evidence estimates prevalence of the candidate's precise pre-comparison delay or the incremental performance of its packet-and-regeneration design.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S3","S4"]},"safety_net_benefit":{"score":4,"rationale":"A governed shared service could particularly help small, rural, and tribal jurisdictions that BJA identifies as lacking resources, provided eligibility assistance and ordinary routing remain available.","source_ids":["S4"]},"scalability":{"score":3,"rationale":"Reusable forms, contacts, and advisory knowledge can scale, but human judgment, changing jurisdictional rules, secure-data obligations, and downstream laboratories remain capacity limits.","source_ids":["S2","S3","S5","S7"]}},"score_confidence":"MODERATE","costs":{"first_evidence":{"band_2026_usd":"UNDER_10K","scope":"A two-week desk-based differentiation and diffusion assessment covering public workflows, forms, eligibility rules, and authority boundaries for NamUs, NCMEC, Doe Network, INTERPOL, and a bounded sample of state programs.","confidence":"MODERATE","assumptions":["Approximately 40-80 analyst hours.","No live case data, software build, legal opinion, travel, or participant compensation.","Uses public documents and synthetic workflow traces only."],"source_ids":["S2","S3","S5","S6","S7","S8"]},"initial_deployment_startup":{"band_2026_usd":"250K_TO_1M","scope":"Adapt an existing authorized organization for a regional pilot: workflow design, agreements, privacy and security review, contact and authorization mapping, secure case workspace configuration, training, and evaluation setup.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["Three to six staff-equivalents contribute during setup, not all full time.","Forensic-technician mean wages are only a floor; loaded labor, legal, privacy, security, and management costs are added.","Existing secure infrastructure can be adapted; no nationwide custom platform is built.","Laboratory testing itself is excluded."],"source_ids":["S3","S4","S8"]},"operational_launch":{"band_2026_usd":"1M_TO_5M","scope":"Launch a multi-jurisdiction service with staffed intake, coverage and succession, secure operations, partner onboarding, incident response, external evaluation, and one year of runway.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["Roughly 6-15 loaded staff-equivalents across brokerage, forensic coordination, privacy, security, legal, evaluation, and administration.","Multiple participating jurisdictions and laboratories require agreements and training.","Testing, specimen collection, transport, and major laboratory-capacity expansion remain separately funded.","The band is a resource-equivalent estimate, not a vendor quote or appropriated budget."],"source_ids":["S3","S4","S8"]},"annual_recurring":{"band_2026_usd":"1M_TO_5M","scope":"Annual operation of a multi-jurisdiction broker, including personnel, secure systems, contact and rule refresh, audits, training, relationship maintenance, incident response, and independent quality review.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["Six to fifteen loaded staff-equivalents plus secure technology and professional services.","Intake is capped to existing downstream laboratory capacity.","No compulsory national coverage and no inclusion of forensic testing costs.","Actual cost varies sharply with referral volume, security architecture, geography, and agreement burden."],"source_ids":["S2","S3","S4","S8"]}},"verified_pipeline_gates":{"externally_supported_problem":{"status":"YES","reason":"Official evidence documents fragmented information, duplicative manual processing, backlogs, and resource constraints in missing- and unidentified-person work.","source_ids":["S1","S4"]},"externally_credible_adopter_or_authorizer":{"status":"YES","reason":"BJA names and funds eligible government, medicolegal, laboratory, university, and qualified nonprofit entities, while NamUs and NCMEC already operate analogous services.","source_ids":["S2","S4","S5"]},"distinct_testable_incremental_claim":{"status":"YES","reason":"The remaining claim can compare a jurisdiction-specific readiness packet plus authorization map against ordinary routing and incumbent advisory routing on time, completeness, errors, inappropriate admissions, workload transfer, and repeat-cycle readiness. Distinctiveness is narrow despite testability.","source_ids":["S2","S3","S5","S6"]},"bounded_next_evidence_step":{"status":"YES","reason":"A fixed desk-based service-gap matrix can determine whether the allegedly distinctive components are absent from public incumbent workflows before any live-case study or build.","source_ids":["S2","S3","S5","S6","S7"]},"no_unresolved_safety_or_authority_stop":{"status":"YES","reason":"The proposed next step uses only public documents and synthetic traces. Any later live use would require custodian permission, authorized collection and submission, restricted-use handling, laboratory acceptance, and retained jurisdictional authority.","source_ids":["S3","S6","S7"]},"credible_cost_scope_and_range":{"status":"YES","reason":"The bands state deployment scale, inclusions, exclusions, staffing assumptions, and uncertainty, with an official wage anchor. They are suitable for screening but not budgeting.","source_ids":["S4","S8"]}},"next_evidence_step":"Complete within two weeks a preregistered public-document matrix of 20 incumbent workflows: NamUs and NCMEC national services, the Doe Network pathway, INTERPOL DVI materials, and publicly available state or regional submission procedures. Score whether each already supplies the proposed functions—verified cross-jurisdiction contacts, authority mapping, minimum-data rules, laboratory-specific packet assembly, duplicate/conflict screening, secure handoff, closure, rule refresh, workload limits, and downstream-capacity checks. Comparators are ordinary jurisdiction-led routing, existing NamUs/NCMEC facilitation, and the proposed enhanced packet. Falsify the remaining distinctiveness claim if an incumbent already performs at least 8 of the 10 functions for routine cross-jurisdiction referrals; preserve it for later empirical testing only if the authorization-map, accepted-packet, and repeat-cycle elements are consistently absent. Do not use live cases or identifying information in this step.","blocking_evidence":["No source quantifies how often plausible cross-jurisdiction candidate pairs stall specifically because of custodian search, identifier reconciliation, authorization translation, or returned coordination packets.","No source reports matched performance of ordinary routing versus NamUs/NCMEC facilitation versus the proposed enhanced packet.","Public sources do not establish that NamUs lacks internal authorization maps, laboratory-specific readiness templates, closure controls, or staff-regeneration practices.","No participating jurisdiction or laboratory has committed to the proposed standalone broker, data-sharing terms, staffing, or evaluation.","No procurement estimate exists for secure workspace configuration, legal agreements, cybersecurity, insurance, or independent audit.","Live-case privacy, records law, consent, chain-of-custody, discovery, retention, and breach-response requirements vary by jurisdiction and remain unreviewed.","World novelty, patentability, freedom to operate, market size, and realized impact are unmeasured."],"research_disposition":"KNOWN_PRACTICE_DIFFUSION","world_novelty_boundary":"This evaluation establishes only that eight directly reviewed web sources disclose closely analogous brokerage, facilitation, selective referral, standardized-form, authority-preserving, and forensic-coordination practices. It does not establish exhaustive world novelty, patentability, freedom to operate, market size, or realized impact, and it did not search patents, proprietary procedures, procurement records, internal NamUs/NCMEC manuals, or nonpublic jurisdictional workflows.","arm":"COMPLETE_PROPOSAL_PORTFOLIO","candidate_version":0,"controller_recommendation":{"action":"STOP_DIFFUSION","repairable":false,"material_progress_observed":true,"progress_targets":["Reframe the opportunity as adoption or extension of established NamUs, NCMEC, BJA, Doe Network, and INTERPOL-derived practices rather than creation of a novel standalone broker.","Use the bounded public-document matrix to identify only locally missing workflow components and route any implementation through an existing authorized organization.","Do not handle live referrals until participating custodians and laboratories approve authority, minimum-data, retention, security, incident-response, and rerouting rules.","If a genuinely absent packet-and-regeneration increment survives differentiation, require a separately authorized empirical evaluation against both ordinary routing and incumbent advisory routing before scale."],"reason":"Bounded web research found the core intervention to be established practice: NamUs already operates cleared advisers who facilitate forensic services nationwide; NCMEC provides analogous analytical, biometric, and forensic coordination; the Doe Network performs structured selective cross-agency referral; and INTERPOL supplies coordination protocols and forms. The remaining claim is a narrow formalization and measurement increment. The appropriate path is known-practice diffusion or incumbent extension, not continued treatment as a distinct innovation."},"proposal_index":2}