{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp06_four_proposal_generalization60_20260803","cell_id":"predictive_residual_processing__criminology_forensic","portfolio_valid":true,"proposal_assessments":[{"proposal_index":1,"complete":true,"causally_faithful":true,"materially_distinct":true,"reason":"Operationally specifies a scoped predictor, structured timeline residuals, consequence weighting, reconstructible context, version synchronization, independent raw-window audits, bounded offline learning, protected bypasses, drift controls, and full-timeline fallback. Its causal path targets examiner attention over digital-event timelines and is distinct from custody, analytical-batch, and program-evaluation assurance."},{"proposal_index":2,"complete":true,"causally_faithful":true,"materially_distinct":true,"reason":"Defines prediction and observation boundaries, a versioned custody-state model, directional transition innovations, uncertainty-aware routing, verified silence, complete-ledger reconstruction, physical-state resynchronization, quiet-ledger audits, offline updates, and manual fallback. It addresses custody integrity through organizational state transitions rather than evidence-content review."},{"proposal_index":3,"complete":true,"causally_faithful":true,"materially_distinct":true,"reason":"Provides a method-scoped joint predictor, signed multivariate analytical residuals, uncertainty and consequence weighting, raw-trace reconstruction, checksum synchronization, residual-structure and drift tests, independent trace audits, bounded offline updating, protected control bypasses, and complete-review fallback. Its problem and causal path concern measurement-process validity within toxicology batches."},{"proposal_index":4,"complete":true,"causally_faithful":true,"materially_distinct":true,"reason":"Uses an efference copy of an institutional intervention to predict its aggregate measurement footprint, then routes structured multi-source residuals through calibrated evaluation controls with reconstructible context, independent audits, rights-critical bypasses, offline model revision, and decompression. It targets program-monitoring confounding and self-generated observation effects, not forensic evidence processing."}],"pairwise_assessments":[{"proposal_a":1,"proposal_b":2,"same_problem":false,"same_intervention":false,"independent_opportunity":true,"key_difference":"Proposal 1 reduces examiner overload in digital-device event timelines through residual-first content presentation; proposal 2 detects and reconciles discrepancies in physical-evidence custody state through a workflow-transition predictor."},{"proposal_a":1,"proposal_b":3,"same_problem":false,"same_intervention":false,"independent_opportunity":true,"key_difference":"Proposal 1 models predictable digital background events for evidentiary timeline review; proposal 3 models expected chromatographic and instrument responses for toxicology batch-quality review."},{"proposal_a":1,"proposal_b":4,"same_problem":false,"same_intervention":false,"independent_opportunity":true,"key_difference":"Proposal 1 routes device-timeline discrepancies to forensic examiners; proposal 4 subtracts the expected aggregate measurement footprint of a crime-prevention program and routes unexplained social and reporting deviations to evaluators."},{"proposal_a":2,"proposal_b":3,"same_problem":false,"same_intervention":false,"independent_opportunity":true,"key_difference":"Proposal 2 predicts authorized custodians, locations, seals, and workflow transitions for evidence integrity; proposal 3 predicts multivariate analytical features across instrument injections for measurement validity."},{"proposal_a":2,"proposal_b":4,"same_problem":false,"same_intervention":false,"independent_opportunity":true,"key_difference":"Proposal 2 is an item-level custody-state reconciliation system; proposal 4 is a privacy-preserving aggregate evaluation system conditioned on an agency program's own actions and measurement effects."},{"proposal_a":3,"proposal_b":4,"same_problem":false,"same_intervention":false,"independent_opportunity":true,"key_difference":"Proposal 3 detects instrument-, matrix-, and sequence-level analytical mismatch within toxicology batches; proposal 4 detects aggregate displacement, reporting divergence, or harm unexplained by a prevention program's predicted measurement footprint."}],"replacement_indices":[],"rationale":"All four proposals operationalize the full predictive-residual loop: explicit scoped expectations, provenance-preserving observations, structured and precision-weighted errors, residual routing, reconstructible context, synchronization, drift and error monitoring, independent full-signal audits, protected bypasses, bounded updates, and full-state fallback. Their affected problems, domain interventions, downstream decisions, and causal paths are materially different and independently adoptable, so no replacement is required."}