{"schema_version":1,"research_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp06_external_evaluation_20260803","source_assessment_id":"representation_independent_interface_contract__sociology_anthropology:P2:v0","cell_id":"representation_independent_interface_contract__sociology_anthropology","search_queries":["kinship data archive representation formats genealogy anthropology database Kinsources","anthropology kinship data software GEDCOM KinOath source claims contradictions provenance","FAIR CARE principles indigenous data governance official sensitive social science data","kinship data interoperability standard genealogy evidence provenance GEDCOM X","Kinsources.net kinship data repository data format paper interoperability anthropology","kinship data standard Kinsources data format anthropology CSV software migration","KinOath paper flexible culturally non specific GEDCOM limitations kinship archive","ethnographic data kinship data management contradictions uncertainty provenance anthropology software","site:bls.gov oes software developers median annual wage 2025 anthropologists sociologists","site:bls.gov/ooh life physical social science anthropologists archaeologists pay 2025","site:w3.org TR prov-o provenance ontology recommendation entities activities agents","official contract testing conformance black box API behavioral compatibility standard","site:bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm median annual wage May 2024","site:nsf.gov anthropology data management kinship database funding repository Kinsources","Kinsources Data Format Puck kinship dataset documentation","GEDCOM X conceptual model evidence conclusions source citations relationships official spec"],"sources":[{"source_id":"S1","title":"GEDCOM X","publisher":"FamilySearch","url":"https://developers.familysearch.org/main/docs/gedcom-x","source_class":"OFFICIAL_PRODUCT_DOCUMENTATION","publication_date":"n.d.","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["GEDCOM X defines an abstract genealogical conceptual model independent of XML or JSON serialization.","GEDCOM X models conclusions, sources, citations, evidence references, contributors, dates, places, and relationships.","FamilySearch reports that proprietary legacy GEDCOM extensions caused implementation incompatibilities and unacceptable data loss.","FamilySearch sponsors GEDCOM X and maintains conversion tooling, making it a substantial prior-art implementation and potential institutional analogue."]},{"source_id":"S2","title":"The FamilySearch GEDCOM Specification 7.0.18","publisher":"FamilySearch GEDCOM / Family History Department","url":"https://gedcom.io/specifications/FamilySearchGEDCOMv7.html","source_class":"STANDARD","publication_date":"2026-02-17","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["GEDCOM 7 is intended for interoperable exchange and long-term preservation of genealogical information.","The standard represents historical claims, sources, citations, researchers, rights, negative assertions, and versioned semantics.","The specification acknowledges unresolved limits: its family model is to be revised to better express human diversity and its sourcing model is insufficient for some use cases.","The standard treats empty and missing payloads as equivalent in its container encoding, illustrating that the candidate's four-way missingness distinction is not supplied by this format.","Cross-reference identifiers are transient and should not be exposed to users, directly supporting the need to prevent dependence on internal identifiers."]},{"source_id":"S3","title":"KinOath Kinship Archiver: A new tool for recording and exploring kinship relations","publisher":"Max Planck Institute for Psycholinguistics","url":"https://www.mpi.nl/publications/item1849649/kinoath-kinship-archiver-new-tool-recording-and-exploring-kinship","source_class":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","publication_date":"2013","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["KinOath was built for collecting, querying, merging, importing, exporting, and analyzing kinship data linked to archives.","Its designers explicitly sought a flexible, culturally nonspecific model because GEDCOM's predefined relationship, gender, and ceremony categories exhibit cultural specificity.","KinOath supports customizable relation types and imports from GEDCOM, CSV, and TIP, establishing technical feasibility and close domain prior art.","Its intended users are researchers collecting data in contexts of social relations."]},{"source_id":"S4","title":"Data Provenance","publisher":"Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology","url":"https://www.eva.mpg.de/ecology/projects-and-research-groups/data-provenance/","source_class":"OFFICIAL_ORGANIZATION_DATA","publication_date":"n.d.","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["The institute states that organizing large-scale longitudinal field data is difficult.","Its Data Provenance Research Group maintains integrated multi-site, long-form databases across several countries.","The group integrates original field records with processed databases so researchers can reconstruct the provenance of database-query results.","This group is an identifiable operational adopter or pilot partner, although it has not expressed demand for this exact contract."]},{"source_id":"S5","title":"Kinsources","publisher":"European Association for Digital Humanities","url":"https://eadh.org/projects/kinsources","source_class":"OFFICIAL_ORGANIZATION_DATA","publication_date":"n.d.","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["Kinsources is a peer-reviewed platform for archiving, sharing, analyzing, and comparing scientific kinship data.","It integrates the Puck kinship-analysis software with a communal repository and search tooling.","Its partner and funder list identifies a credible institutional ecosystem, including CNRS, EHESS, Collège de France, Huma-Num, and ANR.","Kinsources demonstrates established demand for reusable kinship-data infrastructure but not for the candidate's specific behavioral conformance contract."]},{"source_id":"S6","title":"The CARE Principles for Indigenous Data Governance","publisher":"Global Indigenous Data Alliance","url":"https://www.gida-global.org/careprinciples","source_class":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","publication_date":"2019","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["Interoperability and openness alone may ignore power differences, historical context, and Indigenous rights and interests.","Indigenous Peoples assert control over the application and use of Indigenous data and knowledge.","Data infrastructure must account for collective benefit, authority to control, responsibility, ethics, people, and purpose.","Technical conformance cannot substitute for community authorization or substantive governance."]},{"source_id":"S7","title":"Anthropologists and Archeologists","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics","url":"https://www.bls.gov/ooh/life-physical-and-social-science/anthropologists-and-archeologists.htm?csnc=rwkRZ","source_class":"GOVERNMENT_OR_REGULATOR","publication_date":"2025","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["Anthropologists document and manage field records, design data collection, and analyze cultural information.","The May 2024 median wage was $64,910 annually or $31.21 hourly.","The wage provides a public labor-cost anchor for methodologist participation, before 2026 adjustment, benefits, overhead, and community compensation."]},{"source_id":"S8","title":"Software Developers, Quality Assurance Analysts, and Testers","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics","url":"https://www.bls.gov/ooh/Computer-and-Information-Technology/Software-developers.htm","source_class":"GOVERNMENT_OR_REGULATOR","publication_date":"2025-08-28","accessed_at":"2026-08-03","claims_supported":["The May 2024 median wage was $133,080 for software developers and $102,610 for software quality-assurance analysts and testers.","Developers maintain and document systems while QA analysts create test plans, execute tests, identify risks, and report defects.","The wages provide public anchors for estimating engineering and conformance-testing resource equivalents, before 2026 adjustment, benefits, and overhead."]}],"problem_evidence":{"support":"MODERATE","rationale":"The underlying problem is visible: FamilySearch reports implementation incompatibilities and unacceptable data loss; GEDCOM 7 acknowledges incomplete cultural expressiveness and sourcing limits; KinOath was created because common genealogy categories impose cultural assumptions; and Max Planck describes longitudinal field-data organization and query provenance as active operational challenges. These sources support importance and mechanism, but none measures how often anthropological storage migrations alter relationship results, missingness, contradictions, or derivations.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S3","S4"]},"stakeholder_evidence":{"support":"MODERATE","rationale":"Identifiable adopters, authorizers, and funders exist: the Max Planck Data Provenance Research Group operates relevant longitudinal databases; KinOath targets social-relations researchers; and Kinsources has a research-institution and ANR-funded ecosystem. GIDA supplies an identifiable authority principle for Indigenous data. No source commits to adopting or funding this exact interface contract, so demonstrated institutional relevance is stronger than actual stakeholder pull.","source_ids":["S3","S4","S5","S6"]},"prior_art":{"proximity":"SUBSTANTIAL_COLLISION","closest_analogues":[{"name":"GEDCOM X abstract conceptual model and exchange specifications","similarity":"Very high architectural similarity: serialization-independent genealogical concepts, relationships, conclusions, evidence, citations, contributor metadata, multiple serializations, conversion tooling, and institutional stewardship.","remaining_difference":"The reviewed documentation does not establish an anthropology-specific behavioral oracle requiring coexisting contradictory active claims, four-way missingness, immutable supersession history, named-rule derivation traces, and cross-backend held-out conformance.","source_ids":["S1"]},{"name":"FamilySearch GEDCOM 7 standard","similarity":"A versioned interoperability standard for historical claims, family relationships, negative assertions, sources, rights, research metadata, extension governance, and stable semantics.","remaining_difference":"It remains primarily a document and file-format standard; it explicitly equates empty and missing payloads and acknowledges family-model and sourcing limitations. It does not provide the proposed state-transition API or substitutability oracle.","source_ids":["S2"]},{"name":"KinOath Kinship Archiver","similarity":"Domain-specific, culturally configurable kinship collection and analysis software with customizable relation types, queries, merging, and multi-format import/export.","remaining_difference":"The reviewed material does not specify attributed-claim lifecycle semantics, contradiction preservation, visibility-class behavior, snapshot replay, independent dual backends, or black-box acceptance tests.","source_ids":["S3"]},{"name":"Kinsources with Puck","similarity":"Established repository and analysis infrastructure for archiving, comparing, searching, and analyzing scientific kinship datasets.","remaining_difference":"The source does not document a representation-independent behavioral contract or an implementation-substitution oracle; it is a platform and tool ecosystem rather than the proposed interface-governance layer.","source_ids":["S5"]},{"name":"Max Planck Data Provenance workflow","similarity":"Longitudinal field-data infrastructure preserves original records, automates processing, integrates databases, and reconstructs provenance of query results.","remaining_difference":"It is a general operational provenance practice, not a kin-relation claim model with culturally governed predicates and cross-backend behavioral equivalence tests.","source_ids":["S4"]}],"distinctive_claim_remaining":"For a study-approved fictional vocabulary and fixed rule version, an attributed-claim behavioral contract that preserves contradictions, distinguishes unknown/unasked/denied/not-applicable, retains supersession history, and returns derivation traces will make independently implemented relational and graph backends agree on held-out abstract queries without analysts inspecting identifiers, orientation, ordering, or storage fields; GEDCOM X/7 exchange and direct KinOath/Puck-style format conversion will exhibit more semantic divergences or representation-specific corrections under the same fixtures.","confidence":"HIGH"},"implementation_evidence":{"support":"MODERATE","rationale":"Existing systems demonstrate all major technical ingredients separately: serialization-independent genealogical models, culturally customizable kin types, multi-format conversion, kinship queries, provenance reconstruction, standards versioning, and test-oriented software roles. A two-backend synthetic prototype is therefore technically credible. Evidence does not show that the complete contract can represent contested local distinctions without loss, that independent implementations will conform, or that governance and visibility rules can be operationalized safely on live data.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S3","S4","S5","S8"]},"scores":{"meaningful_impact":{"score":3,"rationale":"Silent semantic changes could materially corrupt case selection and kinship analysis, and documented interoperability failures have caused data loss. Prevalence and realized analytical harm in fieldwork corpora remain unmeasured.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S4"]},"stakeholder_pull":{"score":3,"rationale":"Several credible research organizations operate relevant infrastructure, but no adopter has requested or committed to the exact intervention.","source_ids":["S3","S4","S5"]},"incremental_advantage":{"score":3,"rationale":"The proposed contradiction, missingness, supersession, derivation-trace, and held-out conformance rules are useful additions beyond reviewed format standards, but their advantage has not been measured against GEDCOM X/7 or KinOath/Puck workflows.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S3","S5"]},"distinctiveness_plausibility":{"score":2,"rationale":"Serialization-independent genealogical models, evidence provenance, culturally flexible kin types, conversion, querying, and stewardship already exist. Distinctiveness survives only in the specific behavioral-law and conformance-oracle bundle.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S3","S4","S5"]},"technical_implementability":{"score":4,"rationale":"A synthetic API, relational backend, graph backend, generators, and differential oracle use mature software techniques and do not require scientific breakthroughs.","source_ids":["S1","S3","S4","S8"]},"adoption_authority_feasibility":{"score":3,"rationale":"Study governance and community or field-partner representatives can authorize local predicates and rules, while technical teams can enforce conformance. Authority is study-specific, and GIDA shows that technical interoperability cannot override Indigenous control.","source_ids":["S4","S5","S6"]},"evidence_readiness":{"score":4,"rationale":"The candidate supplies a bounded synthetic test, observable comparators, and strong falsifiers; required skills and comparable infrastructure are identifiable.","source_ids":["S3","S4","S8"]},"safety_net_benefit":{"score":4,"rationale":"Fictional fixtures, no live migration, independent prototypes, held-out tests, and rollback to unchanged systems make the first step highly reversible. Community review is still required for the abstract distinctions.","source_ids":["S6"]},"scalability":{"score":3,"rationale":"A reusable conformance suite can scale across backends, but every study may require locally governed vocabularies, visibility rules, and semantic mappings, limiting plug-and-play diffusion.","source_ids":["S1","S3","S6"]}},"score_confidence":"MODERATE","costs":{"first_evidence":{"band_2026_usd":"10K_TO_50K","scope":"Two-week fictional-corpus trial: contract drafting, 15 histories, relational and graph prototypes, example and generated tests, held-out comparison, leakage review, and compensated governance review.","confidence":"MODERATE","assumptions":["Approximately 160 software-development hours, 40-80 QA/data-steward hours, 40-80 anthropology-methodologist hours, and 20-40 compensated community or field-partner hours.","2024 BLS wages are adjusted approximately to 2026 and multiplied for benefits, overhead, and short-term contracting.","No real data, production security integration, procurement, or live migration."],"source_ids":["S7","S8"]},"initial_deployment_startup":{"band_2026_usd":"50K_TO_250K","scope":"Production-quality contract library and conformance suite for one study, two adapters, synthetic and de-identified validation fixtures, documentation, governance record, and reproducible build pipeline.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["Roughly 0.5-1.0 software-developer FTE-year plus part-time QA, anthropology, data-steward, and governance effort.","Existing databases expose usable adapter points and do not require wholesale reconstruction.","Excludes live cutover and extensive retrospective data cleaning."],"source_ids":["S7","S8"]},"operational_launch":{"band_2026_usd":"250K_TO_1M","scope":"One live-study launch including privacy and security review, authorized semantic mapping, dry-run migration, shadow comparisons, discrepancy adjudication, analyst training, monitoring, rollback tooling, and initial support.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["One to three engineering FTE-years distributed across development, QA, security, and operations, plus substantial methodologist, steward, and community-governance participation.","Sensitive-data controls and institutional reviews are required before live use.","Legacy ambiguity may require manual adjudication; cost rises sharply with corpus size and undocumented conventions."],"source_ids":["S6","S7","S8"]},"annual_recurring":{"band_2026_usd":"50K_TO_250K","scope":"Version stewardship, regression testing, dependency and leakage audits, incident response, vocabulary and rule review, user support, and maintenance of adapters for one or a small number of studies.","confidence":"LOW","assumptions":["Approximately 0.25-0.75 engineering/QA FTE plus 0.2-0.5 data-steward or methodologist FTE and compensated periodic governance participation.","Hosting costs are secondary to specialized labor.","Major vocabulary changes or new backends are treated as projects rather than routine maintenance."],"source_ids":["S6","S7","S8"]}},"verified_pipeline_gates":{"externally_supported_problem":{"status":"YES","reason":"Independent official and primary sources document longitudinal field-data difficulty, culturally restrictive kinship formats, incomplete models, incompatibility, and data loss, although exact prevalence is unknown.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S3","S4"]},"externally_credible_adopter_or_authorizer":{"status":"YES","reason":"The Max Planck Data Provenance Research Group and Kinsources ecosystem are credible potential adopters or funders; study governance and relevant community representatives are credible authorizers. No adoption commitment is evidenced.","source_ids":["S4","S5","S6"]},"distinct_testable_incremental_claim":{"status":"YES","reason":"The claim contrasts the proposed behavioral contract with GEDCOM X/7 exchange and KinOath/Puck-style conversion using observable held-out divergence counts, hidden-state access requests, and unmappable distinctions.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S3","S5"]},"bounded_next_evidence_step":{"status":"YES","reason":"A two-week fictional dual-backend trial has defined actors, fixtures, comparators, observations, exclusions, and falsifiers.","source_ids":["S3","S4","S8"]},"no_unresolved_safety_or_authority_stop":{"status":"YES","reason":"The bounded step uses fictional people and makes no live-data or semantic-authority changes. It must stop if reviewers identify collapsed local distinctions. This gate does not authorize deployment with real records.","source_ids":["S6"]},"credible_cost_scope_and_range":{"status":"YES","reason":"All four bands name labor and workflow scope and are anchored to government wage data, with explicit overhead and uncertainty assumptions. Deployment estimates remain low-confidence until a corpus and institution are selected.","source_ids":["S7","S8"]}},"next_evidence_step":"Run a preregistered two-week synthetic differential trial with one fieldwork methodologist, one data steward or QA lead, one software developer, and compensated authorized field-partner or community representation. Freeze a fictional vocabulary, four missingness states, visibility classes, and two derivation-rule versions before implementation. Create 15 public fictional histories plus five held-out histories. Compare three approaches: (A) direct GEDCOM X/7 representation and round-trip exchange, (B) a KinOath/Puck-style customizable format-and-converter workflow, and (C) the proposed behavioral contract implemented independently over relational and graph stores. Measure loss or collapse of claim provenance, missingness states, contradictory active claims, supersession history, snapshot replay, derived-path membership and trace, ordering dependence, identifier leakage, and requests for hidden-state access. Predefine failure as any held-out abstract disagreement between the two contract backends, any locally meaningful distinction that authorized reviewers cannot encode without loss, or no lower divergence/correction burden than both comparators. Use no real participants, records, production systems, or migration authority.","blocking_evidence":["No empirical estimate of how often representation changes alter kinship analyses in actual fieldwork corpora.","No adopter, funder, or governance body has committed to the proposed trial.","No held-out evidence yet shows that two independently implemented backends agree under the contract.","No evidence yet shows that authorized reviewers can map culturally specific and contested distinctions without semantic loss or uncompensated burden.","No live-data privacy, ethics, contractual, institutional, Indigenous-data-governance, or jurisdiction-specific legal review has been completed.","No measured advantage over GEDCOM X/7, KinOath, Puck, Kinsources, or disciplined provenance-preserving conversion exists.","World novelty, patentability, freedom to operate, market size, and realized impact are unmeasured."],"research_disposition":"PARTNERED_RESEARCH_PROGRAM","world_novelty_boundary":"This bounded eight-source search establishes substantial prior art and a narrower contrastive claim only. It does not measure world novelty, patentability, freedom to operate, market size, or realized impact, and it is not an exhaustive literature, product, standards, repository, code, or patent search.","arm":"COMPLETE_PROPOSAL_PORTFOLIO","candidate_version":0,"controller_recommendation":{"action":"STOP_EMPIRICAL_RESEARCH_NEEDED","repairable":false,"material_progress_observed":true,"progress_targets":["Secure written participation from one longitudinal field-data team and its legitimate semantic/data-governance authority for a fictional-data trial.","Preregister the abstract laws, three comparators, fixtures, held-out cases, metrics, acceptance thresholds, and falsifiers before coding.","Demonstrate zero contract-level divergence between independently built relational and graph backends on held-out histories.","Show a materially lower semantic-divergence and representation-specific-correction burden than GEDCOM X/7 exchange and a KinOath/Puck-style converter workflow.","Document every unmappable or contested distinction and obtain explicit governance disposition without treating technical conformance as factual adjudication.","Produce a deployment-specific privacy, authority, security, compensation, and cost assessment before any real records are touched."],"reason":"Web research verifies a meaningful problem and credible institutional actors, but also finds substantial collision with GEDCOM X/7, KinOath, Kinsources/Puck, and provenance practice. The remaining value claim concerns comparative backend behavior, semantic coverage, and workflow burden; it cannot be resolved by further bounded web search and requires an empirical synthetic prototype with authorized reviewers."},"proposal_index":2}