{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp07_retrospective_selector60_20260803","cell_code":"E7C003","selector_replication":3,"assessments":[{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_A","problem_reality_importance":88,"causal_archetype_fit":82,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":64,"operational_specificity":91,"falsifiability_test_quality":73,"adopter_partner_path":82,"deployability_complexity":57,"authority_safety_reversibility":96,"strict_potential":67,"empirical_partner_potential":82,"scrutiny_priority":72,"biggest_visible_risk":"The intervention bundles lot traceability, financial reserves, ranking reform, promotion caps, antimanipulation controls, and competition remedies so broadly that a shadow study may not isolate which governance element changes outcomes.","rationale":"The proposal addresses credible lot-mismatch, cost-shifting, and platform-lock-in problems with unusually specific transaction records, rules, safeguards, and rollback conditions. Lot-linked retains and claim-specific disputes create a meaningful mechanism. However, the continuous marketplace is less cleanly bounded than a discrete contest, live authority is distributed, and the paper-only first step cannot test sampling representativeness, reserve behavior, off-platform promotion, or actual challenger conversion."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_B","problem_reality_importance":89,"causal_archetype_fit":96,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":63,"operational_specificity":94,"falsifiability_test_quality":88,"adopter_partner_path":95,"deployability_complexity":84,"authority_safety_reversibility":98,"strict_potential":87,"empirical_partner_potential":94,"scrutiny_priority":92,"biggest_visible_risk":"The frozen composite and held-out panel could merely replace proposal gaming with metric gaming while embedding contestable scientific value judgments in a single ranking.","rationale":"This is the cleanest archetype instance: multiple teams seek one genuinely scarce pilot slot, and cherry-picking, unequal resource use, and shifted facility burdens directly distort selection. The two-stage coded evaluation, independent reproduction, fixed resource envelope, expiring award, and complementary vouchers are bounded and decision-relevant. A single facility can perform the reversible shadow study using existing records, with rank sensitivity and counterfactual allocation tests capable of changing whether a prospective contest is justified."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_C","problem_reality_importance":92,"causal_archetype_fit":94,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":51,"operational_specificity":95,"falsifiability_test_quality":90,"adopter_partner_path":93,"deployability_complexity":79,"authority_safety_reversibility":97,"strict_potential":79,"empirical_partner_potential":92,"scrutiny_priority":86,"biggest_visible_risk":"Much of the design resembles well-governed hazardous-waste procurement, leaving the remaining contrastive value vulnerable if ordinary total-cost tendering already supplies equivalent traceability and contestability.","rationale":"The service, externalities, incumbent assets, and procurement authority are concrete, consequential, and tightly connected to supplier rivalry. Historical bids, invoices, manifests, rejected loads, and transition records support a strong normalization and portfolio-allocation test with clear comparison rules. The proposal is operationally mature and partner-ready, although surety and lot splitting may exclude entrants or fragment responsibility, and many mechanisms may prove to be standard procurement controls rather than a distinct intervention."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_D","problem_reality_importance":83,"causal_archetype_fit":91,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":73,"operational_specificity":91,"falsifiability_test_quality":70,"adopter_partner_path":72,"deployability_complexity":54,"authority_safety_reversibility":96,"strict_potential":72,"empirical_partner_potential":75,"scrutiny_priority":76,"biggest_visible_risk":"Polymer-depolymerization contributions may not admit stable prospective module boundaries and thresholds, making the credit system manipulable or obsolete as discoveries reorganize the process architecture.","rationale":"Confidential provisional priority, near-simultaneous credit sharing, modular rewards, and nonexclusive access form a causally coherent response to hazardous priority racing and blocking claims. The proposal has a comparatively distinctive contrastive claim and a safely reversible retrospective simulation. Its decisive uncertainties are harder to resolve, however: reconstructed timestamps cannot establish how behavior would have changed, integration value may emerge only later, and live adoption requires coordinated IP, institutional, safety, and sponsor consent."}],"rank_order":["CANDIDATE_B","CANDIDATE_C","CANDIDATE_D","CANDIDATE_A"],"top_choice":"CANDIDATE_B","portfolio_observation":"B and C offer the strongest near-term partner studies because each has a discrete scarce allocation, a concentrated decision authority, existing comparison records, and counterfactual rankings that can affect a real governance decision. D is more contrastively distinctive but depends on whether modules can be specified prospectively; A addresses an important market problem but is the most bundled and institutionally diffuse design.","confidence":"HIGH"}