{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp07_retrospective_selector60_20260803","cell_code":"E7C004","selector_replication":2,"assessments":[{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_A","problem_reality_importance":84,"causal_archetype_fit":88,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":72,"operational_specificity":91,"falsifiability_test_quality":88,"adopter_partner_path":76,"deployability_complexity":68,"authority_safety_reversibility":94,"strict_potential":78,"empirical_partner_potential":87,"scrutiny_priority":82,"biggest_visible_risk":"Formalized rivalry may entrench assigned hypotheses and reward persuasive specificity rather than calibrated evidentiary value.","rationale":"The proposal tightly connects scarce investigative resources and incumbent control to a bounded rivalry mechanism, with unusually clear record access, preregistration, caps, legal separation, and rollback. Its retrospective crossover simulation can directly compare prediction quality and burdens without case impact. Operational adoption is harder because creating rival teams, independent scoring, and defensible historical packets is resource-intensive, and parallel-hypothesis review resembles familiar red-team and alternative-theory practices."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_B","problem_reality_importance":86,"causal_archetype_fit":92,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":74,"operational_specificity":93,"falsifiability_test_quality":92,"adopter_partner_path":89,"deployability_complexity":48,"authority_safety_reversibility":95,"strict_potential":86,"empirical_partner_potential":94,"scrutiny_priority":91,"biggest_visible_risk":"The league may become a conventional proficiency test that rewards challenge-packet gaming or defect overcalling rather than transferable error-discovery behavior.","rationale":"Existing rivalry over development resources is redirected toward verified weakness discovery through balanced false-positive penalties, held-out reproduction, equal resource limits, and quarantined synthetic materials. The matched-packet randomized study isolates the contest framing and can decisively reject the intervention under bounded conditions. A forensic consortium or oversight board has a credible path to a volunteer dry run, although the distinction from ordinary proficiency testing is especially exposed to prior-art scrutiny."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_C","problem_reality_importance":88,"causal_archetype_fit":94,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":65,"operational_specificity":95,"falsifiability_test_quality":90,"adopter_partner_path":87,"deployability_complexity":57,"authority_safety_reversibility":94,"strict_potential":87,"empirical_partner_potential":90,"scrutiny_priority":89,"biggest_visible_risk":"The intervention may largely reproduce established benchmark-based best-value procurement, multi-award contracting, and portability requirements, leaving little contrastive claim after scrutiny.","rationale":"Vendor rivalry is intrinsic to the problem, and the proposal specifies sealed tests, independent operators, false-artifact penalties, reproducibility, exports, migration security, divided leases, and re-entry. The no-award dry run is safe and tests ranking stability and tool-independent reviewability. It is highly deployable through procurement authority, but composite scoring and two-tool operational overhead are material, and many individual safeguards look procurement-standard."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_D","problem_reality_importance":94,"causal_archetype_fit":85,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":62,"operational_specificity":84,"falsifiability_test_quality":82,"adopter_partner_path":70,"deployability_complexity":89,"authority_safety_reversibility":92,"strict_potential":66,"empirical_partner_potential":79,"scrutiny_priority":73,"biggest_visible_risk":"The composite net-harm ranking may be dominated by contestable weights, noisy reporting measures, boundary assumptions, and factors districts cannot control.","rationale":"The proposal addresses a consequential and plausible metric-gaming problem and carefully protects core services, rights, and truthful reporting. Its retrospective shadow score is reversible and includes appropriate sensitivity and halt tests. However, measurement and causal attribution are exceptionally difficult, the league could intensify gaming or competition between districts, and a willing partner would face substantial political, data-governance, and administrative burdens before any operational trial."}],"rank_order":["CANDIDATE_B","CANDIDATE_C","CANDIDATE_A","CANDIDATE_D"],"top_choice":"CANDIDATE_B","portfolio_observation":"B and C offer the clearest bounded trials and strongest adopter paths: B has the best empirical discrimination, while C has the strongest direct archetype fit and deployability but greater prior-art vulnerability. A is a strong safe simulation opportunity with heavier institutional complexity. D targets the most consequential problem but carries the largest measurement, attribution, and implementation burden.","confidence":"HIGH"}