{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp07_retrospective_selector60_20260803","cell_code":"E7C005","selector_replication":2,"assessments":[{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_A","problem_reality_importance":86,"causal_archetype_fit":87,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":67,"operational_specificity":91,"falsifiability_test_quality":79,"adopter_partner_path":78,"deployability_complexity":61,"authority_safety_reversibility":89,"strict_potential":72,"empirical_partner_potential":76,"scrutiny_priority":76,"biggest_visible_risk":"A contained, short-duration arena may select traits that do not predict mature forest performance, rare-event resilience, recruitment, or landscape interactions.","rationale":"The proposal tightly governs a genuine scarce-source selection problem and makes biological competition causally relevant through equalized starts, mixed blocks, portfolio advancement, containment, and challenger access. Its authorized trial is specific and reversible, but the decisive durable-contribution claim requires long ecological horizons; the first study could falsify density and interaction assumptions without validating landscape-scale selection."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_B","problem_reality_importance":94,"causal_archetype_fit":92,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":75,"operational_specificity":92,"falsifiability_test_quality":91,"adopter_partner_path":91,"deployability_complexity":72,"authority_safety_reversibility":95,"strict_potential":86,"empirical_partner_potential":92,"scrutiny_priority":89,"biggest_visible_risk":"Portfolio results may be driven by contestable hydrologic assumptions and optimization weights rather than a reproducible improvement over ordinary basin planning.","rationale":"The basin-wide externality makes project-by-project rivalry structurally consequential, and portfolio marginality, common stress tests, concentration controls, and spillover responsibility directly address the failure mechanism. A fund administrator can run the bounded archival shadow replay without changing awards, and its preregistered sensitivity and outcome comparisons can genuinely reject the design. Data gaps and model dependence are substantial but explicitly exposed."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_C","problem_reality_importance":96,"causal_archetype_fit":91,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":48,"operational_specificity":90,"falsifiability_test_quality":82,"adopter_partner_path":69,"deployability_complexity":49,"authority_safety_reversibility":93,"strict_potential":65,"empirical_partner_potential":70,"scrutiny_priority":69,"biggest_visible_risk":"Net-consumption lots and ecological externality charges may be too uncertain to define safely, while willingness to pay can privilege financial capacity rather than socially valuable use.","rationale":"The scarcity, hoarding, timing, return-flow, and downstream-externality mechanisms are real and the proposal draws strong noncontestable safety boundaries. However, governed water auctions are visibly vulnerable to familiar-practice prior art, and operational adoption faces legal, measurement, liquidity, equity, and political constraints. The shadow exercise is reversible, but voluntary retrospective bids may not resolve behavior under a binding auction."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_D","problem_reality_importance":91,"causal_archetype_fit":96,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":56,"operational_specificity":95,"falsifiability_test_quality":94,"adopter_partner_path":94,"deployability_complexity":87,"authority_safety_reversibility":96,"strict_potential":81,"empirical_partner_potential":95,"scrutiny_priority":86,"biggest_visible_risk":"Sealed evaluation, reproducibility audits, compute limits, and ensemble complementarity closely resemble mature benchmark-governance practices, leaving a potentially narrow contrastive claim after scrutiny.","rationale":"Benchmark gaming, compute escalation, correlated errors, and incumbent lock-in are directly produced by rivalry, so the archetype is essential rather than decorative. The intervention is unusually executable: an authorized service can run a safe archival replay with decision-changing tests of leakage, reproducibility, rank stability, compute effects, and ensemble value. Its chief weakness is high prior-art vulnerability, not empirical tractability."}],"rank_order":["CANDIDATE_B","CANDIDATE_D","CANDIDATE_A","CANDIDATE_C"],"top_choice":"CANDIDATE_B","portfolio_observation":"B and D are the strongest scrutiny targets: B offers the best balance of consequential system externalities, a potentially durable governance contrast, and a safe partner study, while D offers the cleanest and fastest falsifiable replay but faces greater prior-art vulnerability. A is structurally thoughtful yet limited by ecological timescale and transportability. C addresses the most acute scarcity but combines a known-looking mechanism with unusually difficult legal, equity, and measurement dependencies.","confidence":"HIGH"}