{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp07_retrospective_selector60_20260803","cell_code":"E7C005","selector_replication":3,"assessments":[{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_A","problem_reality_importance":84,"causal_archetype_fit":68,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":53,"operational_specificity":89,"falsifiability_test_quality":87,"adopter_partner_path":80,"deployability_complexity":66,"authority_safety_reversibility":92,"strict_potential":65,"empirical_partner_potential":81,"scrutiny_priority":69,"biggest_visible_risk":"The rivalry framing may add little beyond a carefully controlled common-garden provenance trial, leaving a weak contrastive claim.","rationale":"The regeneration problem is consequential, and the contained randomized trial has strong measurements, stop rules, and falsifiers. However, biological competition and supplier competition are partially conflated, mature-forest validity requires long horizons, and much of the intervention looks like standard provenance testing plus portfolio safeguards."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_B","problem_reality_importance":94,"causal_archetype_fit":86,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":57,"operational_specificity":91,"falsifiability_test_quality":85,"adopter_partner_path":80,"deployability_complexity":53,"authority_safety_reversibility":95,"strict_potential":74,"empirical_partner_potential":84,"scrutiny_priority":79,"biggest_visible_risk":"Reliable, legally contestable net-consumption lots may be impossible to define without unstable hydrologic assumptions or impairment of protected rights.","rationale":"Scarcity, strategic rivalry, and externalities are concrete, and the auction mechanisms directly target hoarding and access foreclosure. The archived shadow exercise is safe and decision-relevant, but water auctions are highly prior-art-vulnerable, voluntary dry-run bids may poorly predict binding behavior, and lawful operational deployment is institutionally complex."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_C","problem_reality_importance":93,"causal_archetype_fit":90,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":76,"operational_specificity":92,"falsifiability_test_quality":91,"adopter_partner_path":93,"deployability_complexity":77,"authority_safety_reversibility":97,"strict_potential":88,"empirical_partner_potential":95,"scrutiny_priority":92,"biggest_visible_risk":"Portfolio results may be unstable or falsely precise because connected basin effects depend heavily on contestable models, boundaries, and scoring weights.","rationale":"The proposal identifies a credible failure of project-by-project rivalry in a hydrologically connected system and makes portfolio marginality causally central. Its archived-round shadow replay is authorized, reversible, bounded, and capable of rejecting the design through reproducibility, sensitivity, burden, and limited outcome comparisons. The remaining governance contrast is meaningful despite vulnerability to integrated-planning and portfolio-optimization precedents."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_D","problem_reality_importance":89,"causal_archetype_fit":94,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":69,"operational_specificity":95,"falsifiability_test_quality":95,"adopter_partner_path":95,"deployability_complexity":88,"authority_safety_reversibility":98,"strict_potential":89,"empirical_partner_potential":97,"scrutiny_priority":91,"biggest_visible_risk":"The intervention may be largely an aggregation of familiar held-out benchmarking, reproducibility auditing, resource limits, and ensemble selection practices.","rationale":"This is the cleanest bounded empirical design: strategic benchmark behavior is observable, the tournament mechanisms directly change winning strategies, and an archival shadow replay can test leakage, reproducibility, compute effects, regime stability, and ensemble complementarity without operational consequences. It is exceptionally partner-ready, though its components look prior-art-vulnerable and retrospective performance cannot establish future climate-regime robustness."}],"rank_order":["CANDIDATE_C","CANDIDATE_D","CANDIDATE_B","CANDIDATE_A"],"top_choice":"CANDIDATE_C","portfolio_observation":"C and D are the clear scrutiny leaders: C offers the stronger potentially contrastive system-governance claim, while D offers the fastest and cleanest partner-resolvable study. B is important but legally, hydrologically, and prior-art constrained. A is experimentally careful but has the most decorative archetype risk.","confidence":"HIGH"}