{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp07_retrospective_selector60_20260803","cell_code":"E7C007","selector_replication":2,"assessments":[{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_A","problem_reality_importance":82,"causal_archetype_fit":77,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":68,"operational_specificity":91,"falsifiability_test_quality":89,"adopter_partner_path":86,"deployability_complexity":73,"authority_safety_reversibility":94,"strict_potential":77,"empirical_partner_potential":88,"scrutiny_priority":82,"biggest_visible_risk":"The governed rivalry may add substantial audit, appeal, masking, and anti-collusion overhead when a simpler rubric-governed portfolio committee could capture most of the benefit without intensifying competition.","rationale":"The scarce rehearsal capacity and risks of redundant, presentation-driven selection are credible, and the proposal tightly specifies portfolio scoring, safeguards, authority, rollback, and a decision-relevant retrospective test. Its vulnerability is that rivalry may be less causally essential than disciplined anonymous evaluation and portfolio construction, weakening the remaining contrastive claim."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_B","problem_reality_importance":89,"causal_archetype_fit":91,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":82,"operational_specificity":92,"falsifiability_test_quality":92,"adopter_partner_path":91,"deployability_complexity":80,"authority_safety_reversibility":95,"strict_potential":86,"empirical_partner_potential":94,"scrutiny_priority":91,"biggest_visible_risk":"Equal fixed warrants could suppress a genuine burst of consequential signals from a broad or unusually exposed team, while bundling and off-registry escalation provide obvious routes around the cap.","rationale":"Queue flooding is a concrete rivalry externality, and scarce nontransferable nomination rights directly change the causal structure rather than merely improving judging. Confidential priority registration, mandatory-channel separation, portfolio selection, and the bounded replay make the intervention unusually testable and reversible. The replay can expose omission, evasion, classification, and workload failures before live deployment."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_C","problem_reality_importance":96,"causal_archetype_fit":94,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":74,"operational_specificity":94,"falsifiability_test_quality":90,"adopter_partner_path":88,"deployability_complexity":67,"authority_safety_reversibility":93,"strict_potential":87,"empirical_partner_potential":91,"scrutiny_priority":89,"biggest_visible_risk":"The fund-controlled common layer may encode incumbent assumptions or prove unable to represent materially different forecasting methods, converting an anti-lock-in standard into a new entry barrier.","rationale":"Provider-created infrastructure dependence is highly consequential, and rivalry governance is causally central because the incumbent can shape later entry and evaluation. The shared layer, funded shadow lane, transition bond, recurring displacement window, and offline portability test form a strong bounded design. Scrutiny is especially needed because several components resemble conventional procurement, interoperability, dual-sourcing, and model-validation practices, while live adoption carries substantial legal, security, maintenance, and continuity complexity."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_D","problem_reality_importance":84,"causal_archetype_fit":88,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":60,"operational_specificity":93,"falsifiability_test_quality":82,"adopter_partner_path":87,"deployability_complexity":76,"authority_safety_reversibility":95,"strict_potential":74,"empirical_partner_potential":84,"scrutiny_priority":78,"biggest_visible_risk":"Long-range questions may resolve too slowly or ambiguously for a bounded league to establish that promoted forecasters provide better strategic advice, leaving the decisive seat-selection claim weakly testable.","rationale":"The proposal directly addresses self-selected exposure, herding, unequal resources, and incumbent council access with balanced blocks, sealed forecasts, proper scoring, audits, and staggered promotion. The no-stakes microseason safely tests mechanics, but not the crucial transfer from tournament performance to long-range advisory value. Its mechanisms also look especially vulnerable to overlap with familiar forecasting-tournament practice."}],"rank_order":["CANDIDATE_B","CANDIDATE_C","CANDIDATE_A","CANDIDATE_D"],"top_choice":"CANDIDATE_B","portfolio_observation":"All four proposals provide unusually strong governance detail, reversible first steps, and explicit falsifiers. Candidate B offers the cleanest experimentally resolvable coupling between rivalry and scarce-capacity allocation; Candidate C addresses the most consequential problem but faces greater implementation complexity and prior-art vulnerability. Candidates A and D are credible partner studies, though their contrastive claims are more readily absorbed by disciplined portfolio selection and established tournament design, respectively.","confidence":"HIGH"}