{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp07_retrospective_selector60_20260803","cell_code":"E7C028","selector_replication":3,"assessments":[{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_A","problem_reality_importance":90,"causal_archetype_fit":92,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":84,"operational_specificity":91,"falsifiability_test_quality":92,"adopter_partner_path":73,"deployability_complexity":62,"authority_safety_reversibility":95,"strict_potential":86,"empirical_partner_potential":80,"scrutiny_priority":84,"biggest_visible_risk":"The footprint model may be unable to separate intervention-generated measurement changes from external shocks and could normalize recurring over-enforcement, under-service, or rights harms as expected activity.","rationale":"The action-conditioned prediction is causally essential rather than decorative, and the proposal sharply limits residuals to evaluation inquiry with protected-signal bypasses, independent audits, and reversible retrospective testing. Its contrastive claim is strong, but modeling a crime program's measurement footprint across heterogeneous sources is demanding, and securing independent agency, community, and oversight participation is comparatively difficult."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_B","problem_reality_importance":88,"causal_archetype_fit":89,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":70,"operational_specificity":92,"falsifiability_test_quality":94,"adopter_partner_path":86,"deployability_complexity":76,"authority_safety_reversibility":96,"strict_potential":80,"empirical_partner_potential":91,"scrutiny_priority":82,"biggest_visible_risk":"A misspecified reference model could suppress material inculpatory, exculpatory, provenance, or integrity context in a setting where even rare omissions are consequential.","rationale":"The immutable evidence record, reconstructible residual presentation, frozen models, raw-window audits, and closed-case crossover study make this unusually bounded and partner-testable. The central uncertainty can change a decision through measured effort and material-event coverage, although the remaining contrast may prove close to existing forensic filtering, anomaly highlighting, clustering, or timeline summarization practices."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_C","problem_reality_importance":91,"causal_archetype_fit":95,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":68,"operational_specificity":95,"falsifiability_test_quality":96,"adopter_partner_path":91,"deployability_complexity":82,"authority_safety_reversibility":97,"strict_potential":84,"empirical_partner_potential":95,"scrutiny_priority":88,"biggest_visible_risk":"The claimed architectural contrast may collapse into established multivariate quality control, statistical process monitoring, or anomaly detection layered over existing validated toxicology methods.","rationale":"This is the strongest controlled empirical setting: expected analytical behavior is structurally predictable, complete raw traces remain authoritative, partner authority is explicit, and a frozen-method crossover study can directly measure protected-condition misses, workload, reconstruction, drift, and interpretive error. Its chief weakness is prior-art vulnerability, but even if strict distinctiveness narrows, the bounded laboratory study remains highly valuable."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_D","problem_reality_importance":86,"causal_archetype_fit":88,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":52,"operational_specificity":94,"falsifiability_test_quality":93,"adopter_partner_path":89,"deployability_complexity":85,"authority_safety_reversibility":97,"strict_potential":72,"empirical_partner_potential":90,"scrutiny_priority":76,"biggest_visible_risk":"The proposal may add predictive complexity without outperforming deterministic workflow validation, append-only ledger checks, overdue alerts, and periodic physical reconciliation.","rationale":"The custody state, authority, protected bypasses, full-ledger fallback, and synthetic-ledger study are exceptionally concrete and safe. A laboratory partner could resolve performance uncertainty cheaply, but most named discrepancies are naturally expressible as deterministic state-machine or database-integrity rules, leaving the predictive-residual element vulnerable to being unnecessary rather than causally essential."}],"rank_order":["CANDIDATE_C","CANDIDATE_A","CANDIDATE_B","CANDIDATE_D"],"top_choice":"CANDIDATE_C","portfolio_observation":"All four proposals are unusually bounded, reversible, and falsifiable. C offers the best controlled partner study and strongest signal-process fit; A offers the most resilient conceptual contrast but faces the hardest modeling and governance path; B is highly testable but more exposed to familiar forensic triage techniques; D is operationally easiest yet most vulnerable to a simpler deterministic rival.","confidence":"MODERATE"}