{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp07_retrospective_selector60_20260803","cell_code":"E7C029","selector_replication":1,"assessments":[{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_A","problem_reality_importance":93,"causal_archetype_fit":95,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":80,"operational_specificity":97,"falsifiability_test_quality":96,"adopter_partner_path":86,"deployability_complexity":72,"authority_safety_reversibility":97,"strict_potential":88,"empirical_partner_potential":92,"scrutiny_priority":93,"biggest_visible_risk":"A command-conditioned model could over-cancel a consequential external event occurring during a release, especially when travel time or hydrologic regime is misspecified.","rationale":"The consequential attention problem is concrete, and the command copy is causally indispensable rather than decorative: it uniquely separates verified self-caused responses from coincident disturbances. The proposal specifies reconstructible residuals, protected bypasses, independent raw audits, named authority, and a bounded replay-plus-shadow test whose injected failures can reverse a deployment decision. Its main burden is building defensible multivariate response envelopes across changing river regimes, but the first study is authorized, reversible, and highly informative."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_B","problem_reality_importance":81,"causal_archetype_fit":84,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":47,"operational_specificity":91,"falsifiability_test_quality":92,"adopter_partner_path":86,"deployability_complexity":78,"authority_safety_reversibility":95,"strict_potential":64,"empirical_partner_potential":86,"scrutiny_priority":73,"biggest_visible_risk":"The hierarchy may largely formalize familiar residual diagnostics and model-evaluation triage without leaving a meaningful contrastive intervention after scrutiny.","rationale":"The workflow is unusually well governed and easy for a model-development partner to test retrospectively, with frozen runs, scripted perturbations, raw-panel audits, and decision-relevant reviewer outcomes. However, the claimed problem may disappear when an evaluation is already bounded enough for complete expert inspection, and hierarchical residual analysis, uncertainty weighting, and held-out evaluation look vulnerable to close existing practice. The archetype improves review discipline but is less clearly essential to the scientific diagnosis than in the command-conditioned or constrained-channel proposals."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_C","problem_reality_importance":88,"causal_archetype_fit":87,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":59,"operational_specificity":95,"falsifiability_test_quality":94,"adopter_partner_path":75,"deployability_complexity":70,"authority_safety_reversibility":97,"strict_potential":73,"empirical_partner_potential":82,"scrutiny_priority":79,"biggest_visible_risk":"Anchoring review to the prior approved dossier could perpetuate an existing error or suppress consequential context that is not representable as a field-level change.","rationale":"This addresses a credible regulatory attention constraint and goes beyond ordinary redlining through regulator-owned baselines, cumulative residual budgets, mandatory bypasses, reconstruction, and independent section audits. The retrospective closed-renewal test is bounded and capable of exposing missed protected changes or excessive total burden. Its resilience is limited by strong adjacency to document differencing, completeness validation, and risk-based review, while semantic comparison and legal requirements may force enough complete review to erase the operational advantage."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_D","problem_reality_importance":82,"causal_archetype_fit":98,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":36,"operational_specificity":96,"falsifiability_test_quality":97,"adopter_partner_path":94,"deployability_complexity":88,"authority_safety_reversibility":97,"strict_potential":69,"empirical_partner_potential":96,"scrutiny_priority":90,"biggest_visible_risk":"The central predictive-codec design is highly vulnerable to close prior art, potentially leaving only domain-specific safeguards rather than a meaningful contrastive claim.","rationale":"The constrained-link problem, matched predictors, residual transmission, reconstruction, synchronization, heartbeats, raw sampling, and forced fallback form the cleanest causal realization of the archetype. A one-station replay and parallel shadow trial can decisively measure bytes, energy proxy, fidelity, missed regimes, and failure handling without controlling land or emergency systems. Its empirical-partner value is exceptional, but strict potential is capped because predictive residual coding and event-triggered telemetry appear intrinsically known-looking from the proposal itself."}],"rank_order":["CANDIDATE_A","CANDIDATE_D","CANDIDATE_C","CANDIDATE_B"],"top_choice":"CANDIDATE_A","portfolio_observation":"A offers the strongest balance of consequential problem, archetype-essential causal separation, safeguards, and contrastive potential. D should be scrutinized nearly as early because it has the portfolio's cleanest and most decisive partner study, despite pronounced prior-art vulnerability. C is a credible second-tier regulatory experiment, while B is highly testable but most likely to collapse into disciplined versions of familiar scientific evaluation practice.","confidence":"HIGH"}