{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp07_retrospective_selector60_20260803","cell_code":"E7C029","selector_replication":3,"assessments":[{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_A","problem_reality_importance":90,"causal_archetype_fit":86,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":79,"operational_specificity":95,"falsifiability_test_quality":91,"adopter_partner_path":79,"deployability_complexity":62,"authority_safety_reversibility":95,"strict_potential":83,"empirical_partner_potential":84,"scrutiny_priority":84,"biggest_visible_risk":"A prior approved dossier may anchor the system and reviewers to an erroneous or obsolete expected state, suppressing consequential semantic or cumulative changes.","rationale":"The regulatory attention problem is consequential, and the proposal specifies regulator-controlled baselines, protected bypasses, reconstruction, raw audits, named authority, and a bounded retrospective test. Its residual architecture is more than document redlining, but semantic comparison, legal completeness obligations, and the cost of maintaining field-level expected dossiers may erase the workload advantage."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_B","problem_reality_importance":93,"causal_archetype_fit":98,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":86,"operational_specificity":97,"falsifiability_test_quality":96,"adopter_partner_path":91,"deployability_complexity":72,"authority_safety_reversibility":98,"strict_potential":92,"empirical_partner_potential":94,"scrutiny_priority":94,"biggest_visible_risk":"A coincident external disturbance could be over-cancelled as the predicted consequence of a managed release.","rationale":"The command copy is causally essential: verified operations generate time- and station-specific expectations whose residuals isolate unexplained downstream changes. The proposal tightly specifies actuation checks, protected environmental and safety signals, independent raw windows, decompression conditions, decision ownership, and scripted counterexamples. A reservoir partner could resolve the central feasibility and over-cancellation uncertainties through replay and shadow operation without changing releases."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_C","problem_reality_importance":85,"causal_archetype_fit":88,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":61,"operational_specificity":92,"falsifiability_test_quality":89,"adopter_partner_path":85,"deployability_complexity":76,"authority_safety_reversibility":95,"strict_potential":72,"empirical_partner_potential":82,"scrutiny_priority":76,"biggest_visible_risk":"The hierarchy may encode existing process assumptions and explain away cross-scale failures while adding little beyond established residual diagnostics and expert panel review.","rationale":"The proposal addresses a credible attention-allocation problem and provides frozen runs, provenance, reconstruction, raw-panel audits, decompression, and a bounded retrospective evaluation. However, hierarchical residual analysis, held-out evaluation, spatial diagnostics, and model-error classification look comparatively close to ordinary climate-model evaluation practice from the text. Its test can establish workflow feasibility, but connecting queue prioritization to better scientific decisions remains less decisive."},{"blind_id":"CANDIDATE_D","problem_reality_importance":81,"causal_archetype_fit":96,"distinctiveness_prior_art_resilience":69,"operational_specificity":96,"falsifiability_test_quality":95,"adopter_partner_path":93,"deployability_complexity":87,"authority_safety_reversibility":97,"strict_potential":80,"empirical_partner_potential":93,"scrutiny_priority":88,"biggest_visible_risk":"A slowly developing drying or warming regime could be absorbed by the adapting predictor and cease to generate transmitted residuals.","rationale":"The constrained-link problem is concrete, and the predictive codec is causally central rather than decorative. Sender-receiver synchronization, heartbeats, raw retention, full-state snapshots, safety bypasses, and a same-budget walk-forward comparison make the decisive uncertainties unusually testable in a one-station shadow trial. Its strict contrast is more vulnerable because predictive compression and edge exception reporting appear standard-looking, but its empirical-partner path is excellent."}],"rank_order":["CANDIDATE_B","CANDIDATE_D","CANDIDATE_A","CANDIDATE_C"],"top_choice":"CANDIDATE_B","portfolio_observation":"B is the strongest combined strict and partner candidate because the command-conditioned causal mechanism, failure modes, and bounded test align tightly. D offers the fastest empirical feasibility study but faces greater prior-art vulnerability; A offers higher institutional consequence and a stronger governed-document contrast but substantially harder deployment; C is credible yet most vulnerable to collapsing into familiar evaluation workflow.","confidence":"HIGH"}