{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp09_archetype_breadth150_20260804","research_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp09_light_prior_art_20260804","cell_id":"prediction_error_learning_calibration__accounting_auditing","search_lanes":{"direct_problem_and_intervention":{"queries":["accounts payable three way match override exceptions internal audit volume exception rate","three way matching control exception monitoring override SAP audit","audit control exception rate expected deviation business unit sample planning","prospective expectation audit workpaper unexpected difference update risk assessment"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3"],"no_result_note":null},"synonyms_and_historical_terms":{"queries":["audit sampling tolerable deviation rate likely deviation rate control testing","substantive analytical procedures expectation significant unexpected difference audit","audit planning assumptions sample results revise control risk procedures"],"source_ids":["SRC2","SRC3"],"no_result_note":null},"products_practices_and_standards":{"queries":["SAP Concur configure three-way matching exception percentage threshold","PCAOB AS 2315 audit sampling expected deviation sampling risk","PCAOB AS 2305 document expectation unexpected difference","IIA Global Internal Audit Standards continuously update risk assessment audit plan"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4"],"no_result_note":null},"component_combination":{"queries":["prospective forecast log audit exceptions calibration prediction error","observed minus expected control deviations sampling uncertainty future audit planning","internal audit signed prediction error volume balanced holdout","documented expectation cause analysis update audit risk assessment"],"source_ids":["SRC2","SRC3","SRC4"],"no_result_note":"No retained source disclosed the full combination of timestamped unit-level exception forecasts, signed residuals, cause and noise checks, longitudinal calibration, a volume-balanced holdout, and a bounded next-window update rule."}},"sources":[{"source_id":"SRC1","title":"Configure Three-Way Matching","publisher":"SAP","url":"https://help.sap.com/docs/concur-invoice/concur-invoice-standard-edition-administration-guides/configure-three-way-matching","source_type":"FIRST_PARTY_PRODUCT","claims_supported":["Three-way matching compares invoices, purchase orders, and receipts and produces configurable exceptions.","Rules can trigger exceptions using fixed amounts or percentages and can warn or prevent submission.","This directly establishes the accounts-payable exception and threshold-practice context, but not expectation-adjusted audit learning."]},{"source_id":"SRC2","title":"AS 2315: Audit Sampling","publisher":"Public Company Accounting Oversight Board","url":"https://pcaobus.org/oversight/standards/auditing-standards/details/AS2315","source_type":"OFFICIAL_STANDARD","claims_supported":["Tests-of-controls sampling considers tolerable deviation rates, likely deviation rates, population characteristics, and sampling risk rather than raw exception totals alone.","Sample deviation rates can misstate true control effectiveness, creating risks of both excessive and insufficient audit work.","Auditors consider deviation nature and cause and revise control-risk assessments or procedures when results do not support planning assumptions."]},{"source_id":"SRC3","title":"AS 2305: Substantive Analytical Procedures","publisher":"Public Company Accounting Oversight Board","url":"https://pcaobus.org/oversight/standards/auditing-standards/details/AS2305","source_type":"OFFICIAL_STANDARD","claims_supported":["Auditors develop expectations, establish acceptable differences, and investigate significant unexpected differences.","Detailed, disaggregated expectations can detect differences hidden by broad aggregation.","When used as the principal substantive test, the expectation, comparison results, and responses to unexpected differences must be documented."]},{"source_id":"SRC4","title":"Global Internal Audit Standards","publisher":"The Institute of Internal Auditors","url":"https://www.theiia.org/globalassets/site/standards/globalinternalauditstandards_2024january9.pdf","source_type":"OFFICIAL_STANDARD","claims_supported":["The chief audit executive bases the internal-audit plan on documented risk assessment and should continuously update the assessment and plan as risk information changes.","Planning may assess specific business units and considers risk relative to known control effectiveness.","The standards preserve chief-audit-executive and board authority and require escalation of unacceptable risk."]}],"problem_evidence":{"status":"PARTLY_SUPPORTED","finding":"The problem's general inferential structure is visible. Accounts-payable three-way-match systems generate exceptions from fixed amount or percentage rules, while audit standards recognize that control conclusions based on samples require deviation rates, population context, sampling uncertainty, qualitative cause analysis, and revision when planning assumptions fail. Standards also require internal-audit plans to respond to changing risk. The bounded search did not directly establish that internal-audit functions commonly update recurring accounts-payable testing from raw unit counts, omit prospective expectations, or systematically over-attend to high-volume units.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4"]},"closest_prior_art":[{"name":"Expected-deviation and sampling-risk evaluation under PCAOB AS 2315","source_ids":["SRC2"],"overlap":"Uses an ex ante likely deviation rate, evaluates sampled control deviations under sampling uncertainty, considers their nature and cause, and can revise control-risk assessments or subsequent procedures.","remaining_difference":"It does not prescribe an immutable unit-by-window forecast ledger, signed error against the forecast, cross-window calibration, or a volume-balanced holdout governing future internal-audit allocation."},{"name":"Documented expectation and unexpected-difference investigation under PCAOB AS 2305","source_ids":["SRC3"],"overlap":"Requires sufficiently precise expectations, comparison with observed results, an acceptable-difference threshold, investigation of unexpected residuals, and documentation of the expectation and response.","remaining_difference":"It addresses substantive analytical procedures for financial-statement assertions, not recurring tests of an accounts-payable override control or longitudinal calibration of future unit-level testing."},{"name":"SAP three-way-match exception rules combined with dynamic risk-based internal-audit planning","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC4"],"overlap":"Operationalizes accounts-payable match exceptions and permits internal-audit plans to be updated as unit risks and control-effectiveness information change.","remaining_difference":"The sources do not connect exceptions to planning through prospectively frozen probability and severity forecasts, signed prediction errors, explicit causal-credit checks, or shortcut-resistance testing."}],"prior_art_disposition":"ADJACENT_PRIOR_ART","contrastive_claim_remaining":"For recurring accounts-payable override-control tests, freezing unit-level probability and severity forecasts before samples are opened and allowing shadow next-window recommendations only from signed residuals that survive uncertainty and cause checks will yield more reproducible and less transaction-volume-sensitive unit prioritization than fixed-threshold, raw-count, prior-period, or ordinary sampling-rate baselines; the retained sources disclose major ingredients but not this governed longitudinal combination.","contrastive_claim_falsifier":"The claim is falsified if existing workpapers already contain equivalent prospective unit-level forecasts and residual-governed updates, or if a preregistered shadow comparison finds no improvement in inter-rater reproducibility, volume sensitivity, forecast calibration, or next-window ordering over statistically adjusted deviation rates and the approved baseline. Systematic forecast gaming, hindsight editing, or attenuation of severe findings also falsifies operational viability.","gates":{"adequate_source_search":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"The search covered direct accounts-payable and three-way-match terminology, older sampling and analytical-procedure terminology, current products and standards, and combinations involving prospective expectations, residuals, uncertainty, causes, and planning updates. Exactly four opened sources from three publishers were retained, including official standards and a first-party product source.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4"]},"supported_problem":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"The general problem is supported: fixed-rule three-way-match exceptions exist, raw sample outcomes can produce incorrect control-risk assessments, and expectation-, population-, uncertainty-, and cause-aware interpretation is recognized practice. The alleged prevalence and unit-volume bias are not directly shown, so evidence is PARTLY_SUPPORTED.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4"]},"distinct_testable_claim":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"The remaining claim is narrowly contrastive and measurable: prospective unit forecasts plus residual, cause, and uncertainty gates should reduce volume sensitivity and improve reproducibility and subsequent-window ordering relative to specified baselines.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4"]},"bounded_next_test":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"A non-decisional shadow log for no more than four units alongside one approved test is limited and reversible. Existing scope and escalation remain unchanged, while forecast timestamps, hindsight edits, inter-rater agreement, volume sensitivity, and following-window ordering are observable.","source_ids":["SRC2","SRC3","SRC4"]},"no_obvious_safety_or_authority_stop":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"No obvious stop applies to the shadow exercise if it cannot reduce required procedures or alter official findings, records, or employee treatment. Sampling and analytical standards preserve professional judgment and responses to significant exceptions, while IIA standards preserve chief-audit-executive and board authority and escalation duties.","source_ids":["SRC2","SRC3","SRC4"]}},"screen_survival":true,"world_novelty_boundary":"This bounded public-web screen cannot establish world novelty, patentability, market size, expert acceptance, realized value, or absence of equivalent methods in unreviewed patents, proprietary audit platforms, audit-firm manuals, paywalled literature, or organization-specific workpapers."}