{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp11_mechanism_context_external20_20260804","research_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp11_external_scrutiny_20260804","cell_id":"deadweight_loss_reduction__biology_ecology","opaque_id":"deadweight_loss_reduction__biology_ecology__B","search_lanes":{"direct_problem":{"queries":["prescribed fire missed burn windows permitting delays calendar closures authorization research","prescribed fire regulatory barriers permit delays smoke management survey study","prescribed fire implementation barriers weather windows personnel permits ecological fuels study"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC7"],"no_result_note":null},"closest_prior_art":{"queries":["prescribed burn permit preauthorization weather conditions burn window programmatic authorization","programmatic prescribed burn permit multiple burns weather conditions pre approved burn plan","conditional authorization prescribed fire burn permit"],"source_ids":["SRC4","SRC5","SRC6"],"no_result_note":null},"historical_terminology":{"queries":["historical prescribed burning burning season burn plan weather permit 1970","old terminology controlled burning permit weather prescription authorization"],"source_ids":["SRC2","SRC4"],"no_result_note":"Searches using older terms such as controlled burning and burning season found historical background; the retained 2008 interagency guide was the closest authoritative historical analogue."},"products_practices_standards":{"queries":["site:gov prescribed burn permit valid season weather prescription authorization burn day approval smoke management","site:fs.usda.gov prescribed fire burn plan go no-go checklist authorization weather prescription standard"],"source_ids":["SRC4","SRC5","SRC6","SRC7"],"no_result_note":null},"non_english_regional":{"queries":["quema prescrita autorización ventana meteorológica permiso condiciones España","queima prescrita autorização condições meteorológicas licença Portugal fogo controlado"],"source_ids":["SRC8"],"no_result_note":null},"composition_subproblems":{"queries":["prescribed fire permit sequence air quality wildlife cultural resources approval burn window","prescribed burn NEPA air permit tribal consultation burn window delays","programmatic environmental review prescribed fire cultural resources smoke management authorization","prescribed fire pilot conditional permit weather forecast smoke monitoring rollback escape"],"source_ids":["SRC4","SRC5","SRC6","SRC7"],"no_result_note":null}},"sources":[{"source_id":"SRC1","title":"Barriers and opportunities for implementing prescribed fire: lessons from managers in the mid-Atlantic region, United States","url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s42408-024-00315-6","publisher":"Fire Ecology / Springer Nature","date_or_year":"2024","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","language":"English","claims_supported":["Managers reported narrow burn windows constrained partly by legal calendar dates.","Managers identified burning under the best conditions rather than predetermined calendar dates as an opportunity.","Institutional coordination and community trust are material implementation considerations."]},{"source_id":"SRC2","title":"Policy barriers and opportunities for prescribed fire application in the western United States","url":"https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/59412","publisher":"USDA Forest Service Research and Development / International Journal of Wildland Fire","date_or_year":"2019","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","language":"English","claims_supported":["Prescribed fire is not applied at desired levels on western federal lands.","Capacity, funding, incentives, and risk aversion were more consistently reported barriers than air-quality regulation.","The cause of missed burns must be diagnosed contextually rather than assumed to be authorization design."]},{"source_id":"SRC3","title":"Climate change is narrowing and shifting prescribed fire windows in western United States","url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00993-1","publisher":"Communications Earth & Environment / Springer Nature","date_or_year":"2023","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","language":"English","claims_supported":["Burn prescriptions specify ranges of weather and fuel-moisture conditions, and qualifying periods are called burn windows.","Suitable windows are underused because of staffing, funding, risk tolerance, smoke, and other impediments.","Climate change is projected to shift and reduce suitable windows, making delay consequential while also complicating causal attribution."]},{"source_id":"SRC4","title":"Interagency Prescribed Fire Planning and Implementation Procedures Guide","url":"https://www.fs.usda.gov/rm/pubs/rmrs_gtr292/2008_prescribed_fire.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Departments of Agriculture and the Interior with interagency partners","date_or_year":"July 2008","source_type":"OFFICIAL_STANDARD","language":"English","claims_supported":["Federal practice already uses unit-specific, technically reviewed, administrator-approved prescribed-fire plans.","Approved plans are followed by daily go/no-go decisions based on current and forecast weather, smoke specifications, staffing, equipment, permits, and clearances.","The standard incorporates ecological objectives, NEPA, cultural resources, threatened and endangered species, smoke management, monitoring, contingencies, expiration, and wildfire-conversion procedures.","Agency administrators and burn bosses are identifiable authorizers with distinct approval and operational roles."]},{"source_id":"SRC5","title":"Prescribed Burns","url":"https://www.aqmd.gov/home/rules-compliance/compliance/open-burn/prescribed-burns","publisher":"South Coast Air Quality Management District","date_or_year":"Undated; accessed 2026-08-04","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","language":"English","claims_supported":["Larger prescribed burns receive advance smoke-management-plan and local fire-agency approval.","Execution still requires a next-day burn-day decision and burn authorization number.","Annual post-burn evaluation reporting is required, demonstrating an operational authorization-and-monitoring system."]},{"source_id":"SRC6","title":"NHPA Programmatic Agreements and Fire","url":"https://www.nps.gov/articles/nhpa-programmatic-agreements-and-fire.htm","publisher":"U.S. National Park Service","date_or_year":"Updated 2021-08-31","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","language":"English","claims_supported":["Programmatic agreements can establish consultation procedures beforehand for fire activities requiring action within narrow time frames.","Parks, preservation officers, and federally recognized Tribes can agree on standard protective measures that reduce repetitive project review.","Preauthorization cannot erase cultural safeguards; acceptable measures vary by competent authority and may require avoidance."]},{"source_id":"SRC7","title":"Prescribed burns","url":"https://www.ontario.ca/page/prescribed-burn","publisher":"Government of Ontario","date_or_year":"Published 2014; updated 2026-05-14","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","language":"English","claims_supported":["Ontario identifies the provincial ministry as the approving authority for prescribed burns.","Low- and high-complexity applications and burn plans have lead times measured in months, illustrating a serial approval structure that can interact with narrow windows.","Approval considers objectives, safety, operational feasibility, regulations, and public concerns."]},{"source_id":"SRC8","title":"Quemas prescritas realizadas por los EPRIF: método y aplicación","url":"https://www.miteco.gob.es/content/dam/miteco/es/biodiversidad/temas/incendios-forestales/quemasprescritasrealizadasporloseprifmetodoyaplicacion_compressed_tcm30-541707.pdf","publisher":"Ministerio para la Transición Ecológica y el Reto Demográfico, Spain","date_or_year":"2022","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","language":"Spanish","claims_supported":["Spanish practice uses the term ventana de prescripción for qualifying burn conditions.","Documented burns sometimes could not proceed after authorization because meteorological conditions were unsuitable.","Regional evidence reinforces the need to distinguish authorization delay from weather-caused cancellation."]}],"problem_evidence":{"status":"PARTLY_SUPPORTED","finding":"The proposed problem exists in some settings: mid-Atlantic managers explicitly reported that legal calendar dates narrow burn windows and favored flexibility to burn under the best conditions, while Ontario documents long sequential lead times. Suitable windows are also underused. However, western interviews found capacity, funding, incentives, and risk aversion more consistently limiting than air-quality regulation, and Spanish records show weather can defeat execution even after authorization. The authorization wedge is therefore plausible and locally supported, not established as the dominant general cause.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC7","SRC8"],"uncertainty":"The retained sources do not provide matched permit records showing how many independently safe windows were lost primarily because an approval remained pending or a calendar closure applied."},"adopter_evidence":{"status":"SUPPORTED","finding":"Concrete authorizers are identifiable: agency administrators approve federal burn plans, burn bosses make operational go/no-go decisions, air districts issue burn-day authorization, fire agencies approve projects, and parks, preservation officers, and Tribal authorities can establish programmatic cultural-resource conditions.","source_ids":["SRC4","SRC5","SRC6","SRC7"],"uncertainty":"The proposal does not name a target jurisdiction, management unit, or complete set of authorities for an actual pilot; the competent combination varies with land tenure and applicable law."},"implementation_evidence":{"status":"SUPPORTED","finding":"Conditional preauthorization is operationally demonstrated. Federal standards combine an advance, unit-specific approved plan with daily condition checks, explicit permits and clearances, smoke and species safeguards, monitoring, contingency planning, and escape response. South Coast AQMD combines advance plan approval with next-day burn authorization, while NPS programmatic agreements pre-negotiate cultural-resource safeguards.","source_ids":["SRC4","SRC5","SRC6"],"uncertainty":"These sources establish implementability and substantial existing use, but not that the complete proposed incidence analysis, comparative pilot design, or automatic suspension thresholds are routinely implemented as one package."},"prior_art":{"disposition":"ESTABLISHED_PRACTICE","closest_analogues":[{"name":"Federal interagency approved burn plan plus daily go/no-go procedure","source_ids":["SRC4"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"It uses approved unit-specific prescriptions, advance technical and administrator review, current forecasts, daily go/no-go checks, hard compliance gates, monitoring, contingencies, and explicit responsibility for stopping or converting an escaped burn.","remaining_difference":"The proposal adds an explicit causal comparison against ordinary approval, distributional incidence measurement, and a prespecified pilot suspension rule; the federal standard does not itself estimate authorization-caused missed windows."},{"name":"South Coast AQMD advance smoke plan plus next-day burn authorization","source_ids":["SRC5"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"Projects can receive advance plan and fire-agency approval, then execute only after a forecast-sensitive burn-day decision and authorization number, followed by evaluation reporting.","remaining_difference":"The retained page does not show a comparative ecological pilot, multi-authority species and cultural screening, equity noninferiority bounds, or replacement of every applicable calendar closure."},{"name":"NPS fire-related programmatic agreements","source_ids":["SRC6"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"They reduce repetitive consultation by agreeing beforehand with preservation and Tribal authorities on conditions and standard protective measures for time-sensitive fire activities.","remaining_difference":"They address cultural-resource consultation rather than the complete fire, smoke, wildlife, and land authorization chain and do not test effects on safely completed burn area."},{"name":"Mid-Atlantic policy broadening of burn windows","source_ids":["SRC1"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"Managers identified predetermined legal dates as a barrier, recommended condition-responsive flexibility, and reported that recent policy changes were already broadening burn windows.","remaining_difference":"The study reports perceptions and policy direction rather than a controlled evaluation of unit-specific conditional authorization."}],"contrastive_claim_remaining":"In a named jurisdiction that still applies a coarse calendar closure or sequential authorization, changing only that rule to a unit-specific, jointly preauthorized conditional envelope will increase timely, safely completed ecological burns relative to ordinary approval and a capacity-only rival, without violating smoke, escape, species, cultural-resource, access, or distributional noninferiority bounds. This is a local comparative-effectiveness claim, not a claim that conditional burn planning is new.","contrastive_claim_falsifier":"The claim is falsified if retrospective records reveal no material independently safe windows blocked primarily by authorization design, or if a lawful pilot does not improve timely safe completion relative to ordinary approval, or breaches any protected-purpose noninferiority threshold.","confidence":"MODERATE","search_limitations":"The bounded search retained eight sources, concentrated on U.S., Canadian, and Spanish public-land or air-regulatory settings. It did not exhaust state, Tribal, municipal, private-land, or global practice; inspect underlying permit datasets; verify every current local rule; or conduct patent and freedom-to-operate searches. Several sources establish standards or manager perceptions rather than causal effects."},"researchability_gates":{"externally_supported_problem":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"Manager research directly supports calendar-date constraints and condition-responsive flexibility, while other evidence confirms underused windows and long approval lead times. Counterevidence appropriately limits the claim to particular jurisdictions.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC7","SRC8"]},"identifiable_adopter_or_authorizer":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"Official sources identify agency administrators, burn bosses, air districts, fire agencies, ministries, preservation officers, and Tribal authorities as the relevant adopters or authorizers.","source_ids":["SRC4","SRC5","SRC6","SRC7"]},"distinct_testable_incremental_claim":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"Although the generic intervention is established practice, a distinct claim remains about its causal effect when transferred to a specified jurisdiction with a demonstrably coarse baseline, compared with ordinary approval and a capacity-only rival under prespecified safety and equity bounds.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC4","SRC5"]},"bounded_next_evidence_step":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"A retrospective audit of one jurisdiction's permit files, forecasts, crew availability, and cancellations can first estimate the authorization-attributable missed-window set. Only if that set is material need authorities consider a small, one-season comparison among prespecified low-complexity units.","source_ids":["SRC2","SRC4","SRC7","SRC8"]},"no_unresolved_safety_or_authority_stop":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"A records audit requires no relaxation of burn protections. Any subsequent field pilot can remain subordinate to existing agency, air-quality, species, cultural-resource, landowner, and Tribal authority, with daily go/no-go and immediate stop rules. No model output can substitute for legal or operational approval.","source_ids":["SRC4","SRC5","SRC6","SRC7"]},"adequate_search_evidence":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"The bounded adversarial search covered all six required lanes and retained exactly eight direct sources from independent publishers, including three primary research sources and five official or standards sources. Every retained source was opened, including access attempts where the host returned a retrieval error.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4","SRC5","SRC6","SRC7","SRC8"]}},"strict_success":false,"screen_survival":false,"remaining_research_value":"MODERATE","recommended_next_step":"Select one willing jurisdiction with a documented calendar closure or serial approval process and conduct a preregistered retrospective file audit. Independently reconstruct feasible windows from contemporaneous weather, smoke, fuel, crew, consent, species, and cultural constraints; classify each missed burn by primary cause; and compare the observed authorization delay with the capacity-only rival. Seek a jointly authorized one-season low-complexity pilot only if the audit finds a material authorization-attributable set.","world_novelty_boundary":"This bounded eight-source search does not establish novelty or world novelty and makes no novelty conclusion. It also cannot establish patentability, freedom to operate, market size, realized impact, or that no closer practice exists elsewhere."}