{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp11_mechanism_context_external20_20260804","research_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp11_external_scrutiny_20260804","cell_id":"deadweight_loss_reduction__biology_ecology","opaque_id":"deadweight_loss_reduction__biology_ecology__C","search_lanes":{"direct_problem":{"queries":["native seed restoration provenance rules seed transfer zones inventory planting windows shortage approval","native seed bank unused seed lots viability restoration demand inventory matching","native seed supply chain restoration seed shortage procurement barriers report","restoration seed procurement delays planting season native seed inventory"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3"],"no_result_note":null},"closest_prior_art":{"queries":["native seed request platform inventory restoration seed exchange tool seed lot","BLM seed warehouse inventory system native seed request transfer restoration","seed bank material transfer request approval workflow conservation collections restoration","risk based streamlined approval native seed transfer restoration permits"],"source_ids":["SRC2","SRC4","SRC5","SRC6","SRC8"],"no_result_note":null},"historical_terminology":{"queries":["forest reproductive material transfer rules provenance regions regulation seed lots","seed transfer approval restoration seed lot provenance permit","forest seed and plant provenance seed zone transfer guidelines","Farming for restoration native seeds seed production delays availability"],"source_ids":["SRC4","SRC7"],"no_result_note":null},"products_practices_standards":{"queries":["native seed request platform inventory restoration seed exchange tool seed lot","BLM seed warehouse inventory system native seed request transfer restoration","Seedlot Selection Tool climate-smart restoration seed sourcing","seed bank material transfer request approval workflow conservation collections restoration"],"source_ids":["SRC3","SRC4","SRC5","SRC6","SRC8"],"no_result_note":null},"non_english_regional":{"queries":["sementes nativas restauração regras procedência estoque atraso Brasil redes de sementes","semillas nativas restauración procedencia transferencia banco inventario viveros","Saatgut Herkunftsgebiete Renaturierung gebietseigen Genehmigung Deutschland","Australia native seed restoration provenance seed transfer inventory guidelines"],"source_ids":["SRC2","SRC7"],"no_result_note":null},"composition_subproblems":{"queries":["native seed inventory sharing restoration matching seed lots database","climate adjusted provenancing seed transfer guidelines decision support tool","native seed procurement delays planting season inventory provenance","risk based streamlined approval native seed transfer restoration permits"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4","SRC5","SRC6","SRC7","SRC8"],"no_result_note":null}},"sources":[{"source_id":"SRC1","title":"An Assessment of Native Seed Needs and the Capacity for Their Supply: Final Report","url":"https://www.nationalacademies.org/projects/DELS-BANR-17-03/publication/26618","publisher":"National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine","date_or_year":"2023","source_type":"SECONDARY_RESEARCH","language":"English","claims_supported":["Restoration requires diverse native seed suited to recipient climates, soils, and biota.","The assessment explicitly examined how users find appropriate seed, communicate demand, learn supplier capacity, and navigate procurement.","It recommends coordinated public-private action to improve reliability, predictability, and performance of native-seed supply."]},{"source_id":"SRC2","title":"Desafios e oportunidades para o desenvolvimento da cadeia produtiva de sementes nativas para a restauração de ecossistemas no Brasil","url":"https://ainfo.cnptia.embrapa.br/digital/bitstream/doc/1163139/1/desafios-e-oportunidades-para-o-desenvolvimento-2023.pdf","publisher":"Redário and Comitê Técnico de Sementes Florestais; hosted by Embrapa","date_or_year":"2023","source_type":"TRADE_PROFESSIONAL","language":"Portuguese","claims_supported":["Brazilian native-seed sellers can wait as long as 12 months for required accredited-laboratory analyses.","The reported delay can exceed the maximum viability of many native species and conflict with rainy-season planting windows.","The report identifies only 11 accredited laboratories for forest-seed analysis and proposes faster, locally feasible, species-appropriate testing and regulatory adaptation.","It identifies MAPA, technical commissions, researchers, seed networks, and Indigenous and community-based organizations as affected actors and potential authorizers or participants."]},{"source_id":"SRC3","title":"National Seed Strategy","url":"https://www.blm.gov/programs/natural-resources/native-plant-communities/national-seed-strategy","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Land Management","date_or_year":"2015; page includes progress through 2024","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","language":"English","claims_supported":["Demand for native seed outpaces supply and genetically appropriate seed is needed for timely restoration.","The strategy calls for native-seed source-availability data and tools for accessing those data.","It calls for seed-transfer guidelines, integrated decision tools, interagency collaboration, and timely informed seeding decisions.","BLM and its federal, tribal, state, private, and nonprofit partners are identifiable adopters."]},{"source_id":"SRC4","title":"Seedlot Selection Tool and Climate-Smart Restoration Tool: Web-based tools for sourcing seed adapted to future climates","url":"https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/64390","publisher":"U.S. Forest Service Research and Development / Ecosphere","date_or_year":"2022","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","language":"English","claims_supported":["Operational web tools match seed lots or sources to planting sites using climatic transfer distance.","The approach explicitly manages uncertainty and risks such as cold damage and recommends genetic diversity through mixed sources.","Examples include post-fire sagebrush restoration and planning inventories of seed lots suitable for future climates."]},{"source_id":"SRC5","title":"Seedark: Scaling native seed supply to restore global ecosystems","url":"https://www.seedark.io/","publisher":"Seedark","date_or_year":"Undated; accessed 2026-08-04","source_type":"FIRST_PARTY_PRODUCT","language":"English","claims_supported":["The Squiirrel product is a native-seed marketplace with verifiable provenance tracking and communication between collectors and users.","Collectors can post available seed, while growers can post demand and procure through the marketplace.","The product demonstrates that shared matching and provenance records are already implemented, although it does not document parallel regulatory approval."]},{"source_id":"SRC6","title":"Meet the BLM National Seed Warehouse System!","url":"https://www.blm.gov/blog/2024-03-05/meet-blm-national-seed-warehouse-system","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Land Management","date_or_year":"2024","source_type":"FIRST_PARTY_PRODUCT","language":"English","claims_supported":["BLM already operates a centralized system designed to streamline agency-wide seed needs while providing quality control.","The system manages inventory and fills field orders for two to three million pounds annually for BLM and partner agencies.","It orders species and varieties in anticipation of field needs, tests lots, manages contracts, and supplies locally sourced varieties.","The operation shows that inventory coordination, ordering, testing, and distribution can be combined at substantial scale."]},{"source_id":"SRC7","title":"Gebietseigene Herkünfte | Saat- und Pflanzgut","url":"https://www.bfn.de/gebietseigene-herkuenfte","publisher":"German Federal Agency for Nature Conservation (Bundesamt für Naturschutz)","date_or_year":"Current guidance; rules effective 2020","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","language":"German","claims_supported":["German law generally restricts deployment of wild seed and planting material to its region of occurrence and requires authorization for specified nonlocal introductions.","The competent conservation authority may consider an exception when local or regional material is unavailable but must refuse it when ecosystem, habitat, or species risk cannot be excluded.","Guidance acknowledges availability bottlenecks, requires early procurement planning, and distinguishes local from regional provenance.","The protected purposes include genetic diversity, local adaptation, ecological synchronization, certification, and traceability."]},{"source_id":"SRC8","title":"Access the Seed Collections","url":"https://www.kew.org/science/engage/accessing-our-science/access-our-collections/seed-collections","publisher":"Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew","date_or_year":"Undated; accessed 2026-08-04","source_type":"FIRST_PARTY_PRODUCT","language":"English","claims_supported":["Kew exposes seed lists and sends seed to registered organizations for research or restoration.","Incoming collections must be legally collected with landowner and government permission, have wild provenance, be adequately documented, and satisfy quantity and freshness criteria.","The page demonstrates an operational inventory-request pathway while preserving custody, provenance, plant-health, CITES, and viability constraints."]}],"problem_evidence":{"status":"PARTLY_SUPPORTED","finding":"The general timing-and-coordination problem exists, and the Brazilian technical evidence directly documents regulatory testing delays that reduce viability and interfere with planting windows. U.S. sources independently document shortages, fragmented information needs, procurement coordination needs, and the importance of timely access to genetically appropriate seed. However, the searched sources do not quantify the proposal's narrower conjunction: simultaneous unmet requests plus unused, viable, independently screened compatible lots stranded primarily by coarse transfer rules, siloed inventories, or serial approvals.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3"],"uncertainty":"Much of the evidence indicates true scarcity, production capacity, or laboratory capacity rather than recoverable surplus. No complete lot-and-request audit was found, so the proposed 10% problem-falsifier threshold remains unevaluated."},"adopter_evidence":{"status":"SUPPORTED","finding":"Identifiable adopters and authorizers exist: BLM and partner land-management agencies operate seed inventories and restoration ordering; MAPA and Brazilian technical bodies govern native-seed analysis and commerce; German conservation authorities decide provenance exceptions; and Kew supplies registered restoration organizations subject to legal and provenance controls.","source_ids":["SRC2","SRC3","SRC6","SRC7","SRC8"],"uncertainty":"The exact combination of custodial, regulatory, land-management, and Indigenous authority is jurisdiction- and lot-specific; no single body can authorize the proposed workflow globally."},"implementation_evidence":{"status":"PARTLY_SUPPORTED","finding":"Most components are independently feasible and partly operational: shared provenance marketplaces, climatic seed-lot matching, centralized inventory and order fulfillment, quality testing, seed-list requests, and provenance-based exceptions. No retained source documents the full composition of lot-level compatibility matching plus concurrent, risk-tiered custodian, biological, consent, and regulatory review with a sunset, rollback triggers, and measured equity outcomes.","source_ids":["SRC4","SRC5","SRC6","SRC7","SRC8"],"uncertainty":"First-party product pages establish features and operational existence but do not provide controlled outcome evidence. No source measured whether parallel review reduces median decision time without increasing biological or distributional harm."},"prior_art":{"disposition":"ADJACENT_PRIOR_ART","closest_analogues":[{"name":"BLM National Seed Warehouse System","source_ids":["SRC3","SRC6"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"Centralized inventory, anticipated demand, seed testing, provenance-sensitive varieties, order fulfillment, partner access, and explicit process streamlining address getting appropriate seed to restoration projects in time.","remaining_difference":"The public materials do not show cross-custodian compatible-lot rerouting, concurrent risk-tiered approvals, Indigenous-consent routing, contained pilots, or comparative decision-time and harm thresholds."},{"name":"Squiirrel native-seed marketplace","source_ids":["SRC5"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"It connects posted seed demand with collectors and available material while tracking verifiable provenance, closely matching the proposal's inventory-discovery and matching lever.","remaining_difference":"It does not establish biological compatibility screening, statutory or custodial approval orchestration, risk tiers, parallel review, rollback rules, or outcome evidence."},{"name":"Seedlot Selection Tool and Climate-Smart Restoration Tool","source_ids":["SRC4"],"same_problem":false,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"The tools calculate planting-site and seed-source compatibility and support inventory planning under transfer-distance and climate uncertainty.","remaining_difference":"They are decision-support tools, not systems for discovering idle lots, reallocating custody, processing approvals concurrently, or measuring access and governance effects."},{"name":"Brazilian proposals for faster, locally feasible native-seed quality analysis","source_ids":["SRC2"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":false,"overlap":"The source identifies a documented approval-related delay that can outlast viability and planting windows and proposes regulatory adaptation and faster local testing.","remaining_difference":"Its remedy focuses on laboratory methods, exemptions, and rule revision rather than matching stranded lots and parallelizing multiple preserved approval gates."},{"name":"Kew Millennium Seed Bank collection access","source_ids":["SRC8"],"same_problem":false,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"An inventory and request route releases documented wild-provenance seed to registered restoration organizations while retaining legal, health, provenance, and freshness conditions.","remaining_difference":"It is a collection-access practice, not a comparative fast path for ordinary restoration requests or a multi-authority concurrent review system."},{"name":"German regional-provenance exception process","source_ids":["SRC7"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":false,"overlap":"Guidance recognizes local-seed shortages and provides a competent-authority exception pathway while retaining an ecosystem-risk stop.","remaining_difference":"It remains case-specific and does not document shared inventories, lot matching, concurrent review, risk tiers, or cycle-time performance."}],"contrastive_claim_remaining":"For two named common native species in a jurisdiction currently lacking integrated routing, adding a shared lot-level compatibility record and concurrent, risk-tiered custodian, biological, regulatory, and rights-holder review to ordinary practice will increase unanimously cleared safe matches and reduce median decision time by at least 20%, without more than 10% independent-reviewer safety disagreement or any pathogen, authority, donor-stock, genetic, or unequal-access trigger. The increment must exceed what inventory marketplaces or compatibility tools alone achieve.","contrastive_claim_falsifier":"Falsify the claim if an audit finds fewer than 10% of missed planting requests had an unused, viable, independently screened compatible lot delayed primarily by inventory, allocation, or procedure; if the pilot improves neither safe-match completion nor median decision time by at least 20%; if safety disagreement exceeds 10%; if any specified biological, authority, donor, or equity stop occurs; or if further documentation shows this integrated package is already routinely used in the target setting.","confidence":"MODERATE","search_limitations":"This was a bounded public-web search using eight retained sources across U.S., Brazilian, German, and U.K. contexts. It did not access internal inventory logs, permit queues, procurement systems, negative pilot results, non-indexed local procedures, or all jurisdictions. Product pages were not independently audited. The search cannot establish world novelty, patentability, freedom to operate, market size, or realized impact."},"researchability_gates":{"externally_supported_problem":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"External evidence establishes both a broad native-seed timing/coordination problem and at least one direct instance where required review delays reduce viability and disrupt planting windows. The exact prevalence of recoverable compatible surplus remains for the proposed audit to test.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3"]},"identifiable_adopter_or_authorizer":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"BLM seed and land-management programs, MAPA and relevant Brazilian technical bodies, competent German conservation authorities, seed custodians such as Kew, and registered restoration organizations are identifiable adopters or authorizers within their jurisdictions.","source_ids":["SRC2","SRC3","SRC6","SRC7","SRC8"]},"distinct_testable_incremental_claim":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"Adjacent systems separately provide inventory, marketplaces, compatibility matching, testing, and provenance exceptions, but the bounded search found no source documenting their integration with concurrent risk-tiered multi-authority review and prespecified timing, safety, disagreement, and equity thresholds. That remaining increment is falsifiable.","source_ids":["SRC2","SRC4","SRC5","SRC6","SRC7","SRC8"]},"bounded_next_evidence_step":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"A no-transfer retrospective audit of 30 missed requests can first test whether viable compatible lots were stranded and why. Conditional on passing the 10% threshold, a 12-month shadow review for two common species can compare timing and unanimous safe-match decisions before any contained planting. Existing matching, inventory, and request systems show the data operations are practicable.","source_ids":["SRC3","SRC4","SRC5","SRC6","SRC8"]},"no_unresolved_safety_or_authority_stop":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"The first evidence step need not move seed, and the proposed subsequent step requires unanimous clearance, contained plots, no wild release, quarantine and rollback, and retention of provenance, pathogen, statutory, custody, and consent gates. External guidance confirms that these protections and competent-authority decisions are substantive and must not be bypassed.","source_ids":["SRC4","SRC6","SRC7","SRC8"]},"adequate_search_evidence":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"All six required lanes were searched adversarially using contemporary and historical terminology, operational products, official standards or guidance, Portuguese and German regional terminology, and component combinations. Exactly eight retained sources were opened; they span six independent publishers or publisher groups and include primary research, official guidance, and first-party operational sources.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4","SRC5","SRC6","SRC7","SRC8"]}},"strict_success":true,"screen_survival":true,"remaining_research_value":"MODERATE","recommended_next_step":"Conduct a preregistered, no-transfer audit of 30 missed planting requests from one named land-management network and two common native species. Reconstruct contemporaneous inventories, viability tests, provenance and compatibility assessments, decision timestamps, substantive hazards, custody and rights-holder authority, and allocation reasons. Stop if fewer than 10% meet the stranded-compatible-lot definition. Otherwise run the proposed 12-month paired shadow review, keeping ordinary decisions controlling and permitting contained planting only after unanimous independent clearance.","world_novelty_boundary":"The retained evidence supports a distinct, testable local increment, not world novelty. This bounded search cannot establish patentability, freedom to operate, comprehensive market size, realized ecological impact, or absence of equivalent unpublished, non-indexed, internal, historical, or jurisdiction-specific practices."}