{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp11_mechanism_context_external20_20260804","research_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp11_external_scrutiny_20260804","cell_id":"invariant_mode_decomposition_design__economics_finance","opaque_id":"invariant_mode_decomposition_design__economics_finance__A","search_lanes":{"direct_problem":{"queries":["financial institution balance sheet transition matrix eigenvalues leverage liquidity duration funding stress dynamic modes","bank balance sheet eigenvalue stress test deleveraging spiral transition model","bank balance sheet coupled liquidity solvency duration funding limits interaction stress test","bank stress \"each constraint\" satisfied jointly leverage liquidity funding duration hidden risk"],"source_ids":["S1","S2","S3"],"no_result_note":null},"closest_prior_art":{"queries":["\"dynamic balance sheet\" \"eigenvalue\" bank stress test","\"unstable mode\" financial system eigenvalue balance sheet","Koopman operator bank systemic risk balance sheet eigenvalues","financial stability control eigenvalue damping macroprudential policy transition matrix"],"source_ids":["S2","S3","S4"],"no_result_note":null},"historical_terminology":{"queries":["older bank risk monitoring latent factor joint balance sheet stress principal components early warning","bank distress early warning dynamic factor model balance sheet liquidity leverage funding","financial system stability characteristic roots VAR eigenvalue bank balance sheet historical","bank asset liability management state space control theory eigenvalue"],"source_ids":["S5"],"no_result_note":null},"products_practices_standards":{"queries":["official standard bank stress testing principles multiple risks liquidity capital funding second round effects Basel Committee","bank asset liability management software dynamic balance sheet scenario first party product integrated risk","first party product bank balance sheet management stress testing liquidity interest rate risk scenario simulation","site:bis.org/bcbs/publ stress testing principles banks 2018 liquidity capital feedback official"],"source_ids":["S6","S7"],"no_result_note":null},"non_english_regional":{"queries":["Bank Bilanz Eigenwert Instabilität Stress Liquidität Verschuldung Frühwarnsystem","riesgo bancario balance dinámico autovalores estrés liquidez apalancamiento","risque bancaire bilan dynamique valeurs propres stress liquidité levier","銀行 バランスシート 固有値 ストレス 流動性 レバレッジ 動的モード"],"source_ids":["S8"],"no_result_note":null},"composition_subproblems":{"queries":["bank stress \"each constraint\" satisfied jointly leverage liquidity funding duration hidden risk","bank balance sheet coupled liquidity solvency duration funding limits interaction stress test","dynamic mode decomposition bank risk mode drift bootstrap eigenvalue uncertainty held out","action-conditioned transition matrix robust control balance sheet deleveraging financial institution"],"source_ids":["S1","S2","S3","S4"],"no_result_note":null}},"sources":[{"source_id":"S1","title":"The interaction of bank leverage, interest rate risk, and runnable funding","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-interaction-of-bank-leverage-interest-rate-risk-and-runnable-funding-20240830.html","publisher":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System","date_or_year":"2024-08-30","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","language":"English","claims_supported":["Leverage, unrealized duration losses, usable liquidity, and runnable funding interact rather than operating as independent vulnerabilities.","Banks with weak combined liquidity-for-loss ratios showed adverse cash, securities, stock-price, and depositor outcomes even though markets had previously overlooked the interaction.","An otherwise solvent institution can lack enough usable liquidity, while an institution with adequate liquidity may remain vulnerable through interest-rate risk."]},{"source_id":"S2","title":"Liquidity at Risk: Joint Stress Testing of Solvency and Liquidity","url":"https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2020/english/wpiea2020082-print-pdf.pdf","publisher":"International Monetary Fund","date_or_year":"2020-06","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","language":"English","claims_supported":["Separate solvency and liquidity tests can miss failure regions produced specifically by their interaction.","A granular balance-sheet model can represent margin calls, funding access and costs, fire sales, solvency, and liquidity as coupled short-horizon dynamics.","Funding costs and fire sales can amplify an initial equity shock, with effects dependent on balance-sheet composition and funding structure.","The framework includes mitigating actions drawn from contingency-funding and recovery plans, but does not use data-driven invariant modes or action-conditioned spectral gain."]},{"source_id":"S3","title":"Evaluation of systemic risk in a financial system using dynamic mode decomposition","url":"https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6031928","publisher":"SSRN","date_or_year":"2026-01-07","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","language":"English","claims_supported":["Dynamic mode decomposition has already been proposed for systemic-risk evaluation using banking statements and market data.","The paper formulates financial-system instability using eigenvalues of an approximated Koopman operator and applies the method to major US financial institutions before the 2007–08 crisis.","This directly overlaps the proposal's spectral detection mechanism, though the indexed abstract does not establish institution-specific action-response identification, robust modal damping, or affected-party governance."]},{"source_id":"S4","title":"Stability and Identification with Optimal Macroprudential Policy Rules","url":"https://www.bundesbank.de/resource/blob/636022/4db65b5f85b53b5b422fc556972e3c3b/472B63F073F071307366337C94F8C870/2014-05-01-eltville-02a-stability-and-identification-paper-data.pdf","publisher":"Deutsche Bundesbank-hosted conference paper","date_or_year":"2014","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","language":"English","claims_supported":["Macroprudential research already analyzes open- and closed-loop transition matrices, controllability, and stabilization through their eigenvalues.","The paper explicitly warns that some policy-rule parameters are not identified and gives controllability conditions for identified stabilizing rules.","Its setting is an aggregate rational-expectations macroeconomic model, not a weekly empirical balance-sheet transition for one institution."]},{"source_id":"S5","title":"Distress in European Banks: An Analysis Based on a New Data Set","url":"https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2009/_wp0909.pdf","publisher":"International Monetary Fund","date_or_year":"2009-01","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","language":"English","claims_supported":["Bank-distress early-warning systems long predate the proposal and combine capital, asset-quality, profitability, liquidity, market, and funding indicators.","The literature and supervisors used combined CAMEL indicators, although the paper reported no clear agreement on exactly how to combine them.","Wholesale-funding reliance predicted distress while a basic liquidity measure did not, illustrating the value of joint or alternative indicators beyond simple coordinate ratios."]},{"source_id":"S6","title":"Stress testing principles","url":"https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d450.htm","publisher":"Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Bank for International Settlements","date_or_year":"2018-10-17","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","language":"English","claims_supported":["Stress testing is an established core tool for bank risk management, supervisors, and macroprudential authorities.","Official principles assign importance to objectives, governance, methodology, documentation, implementation, oversight, and continuing challenge.","Banks and supervisory authorities are identifiable adopters or authorizers for a no-action analytical study."]},{"source_id":"S7","title":"SAS Asset and Liability Management","url":"https://www.sas.com/pl_pl/software/asset-liability-management.html","publisher":"SAS Institute","date_or_year":"Undated; accessed 2026-08-04","source_type":"FIRST_PARTY_PRODUCT","language":"English content in a Polish-localized site shell","claims_supported":["Commercial ALM products already provide integrated interest-rate, funding-liquidity, behavioral, and credit-risk analysis over static or projected balance sheets.","Scenario-based balance-sheet simulation, stress testing, process monitoring, calculation transparency, and automated daily production are productized capabilities.","Banks and other financial institutions are explicitly identified users, but the product page does not claim DMD, invariant-mode thresholds, or robust spectral damping."]},{"source_id":"S8","title":"Liquidité, solvabilité bancaire et crise financière : quelle relation ?","url":"https://www.banque-france.fr/fr/publications-et-statistiques/publications/liquidite-solvabilite-bancaire-et-crise-financiere-quelle-relation","publisher":"Banque de France","date_or_year":"2020-07-24; updated 2024-07-25","source_type":"SECONDARY_RESEARCH","language":"French","claims_supported":["French evidence and terminology also recognize interactions among bank solvency, liquidity, funding costs, fire sales, asset uncertainty, and confidence.","A simultaneous-equations model of 725 French banks found crisis-dependent nonlinear effects and persistent solvency responses.","The source notes that integrated joint models remained relatively uncommon, but it does not use invariant-mode detection or modal intervention."]}],"problem_evidence":{"status":"SUPPORTED","finding":"The general problem is well supported: duration losses can reduce the usability of nominally liquid assets when runnable funding is stressed; solvency shocks can create endogenous liquidity needs; funding costs and fire sales can amplify losses; and independently conducted solvency and liquidity tests can miss failure regions created by their interaction. Historical early-warning work likewise found that wholesale funding added information not supplied by a basic liquidity measure.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S5","S8"],"uncertainty":"The sources do not directly establish the proposal's exact claim that a weekly approximately invariant eigen-direction will reliably approach instability while every named leverage, liquidity, duration, and funding limit remains satisfied. They support coupled hidden vulnerability, not the proposed spectral representation or lead time."},"adopter_evidence":{"status":"SUPPORTED","finding":"Institutional treasury, ALM, and risk functions are identifiable users of integrated balance-sheet analytics, while bank senior governance and prudential supervisors are identifiable authorizers and reviewers of stress-testing studies. Live capital, liquidity, credit, or customer-impacting actions would require management and, where applicable, supervisory authority.","source_ids":["S6","S7"],"uncertainty":"Public sources establish adopter classes, not commitment by a named institution to supply the required weekly and action-episode data."},"implementation_evidence":{"status":"PARTLY_SUPPORTED","finding":"The components are technically plausible: joint short-horizon balance-sheet stress models exist; DMD has been applied to banking statements and market data; eigenvalue-based stabilization is established in macroprudential control models; and integrated dynamic-balance-sheet analytics are commercially available. No retained source demonstrates the complete package of a weekly institution-level DMD, bootstrap-separated modes, locked-holdout detection, identified or bounded action-dependent maps, worst-case spectral damping, drift retirement, and incidence budgets.","source_ids":["S2","S3","S4","S7"],"uncertainty":"The feasibility of obtaining at least 260 comparable weekly observations and 12 plausibly exogenous episodes for each action class is unverified. The full SSRN text for S3 returned HTTP 403, so only its publicly indexed title, metadata, and abstract were reviewable."},"prior_art":{"disposition":"ADJACENT_PRIOR_ART","closest_analogues":[{"name":"Zavialov and Ikeda dynamic-mode systemic-risk metric","source_ids":["S3"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"Uses banking statements and market data, approximates financial dynamics with a Koopman operator, and treats its eigenvalues as an instability criterion.","remaining_difference":"The available abstract describes systemic-risk detection, not a preregistered weekly model for one institution with locked comparators, mode-separation and drift gates, identified or bounded action-conditioned operators, worst-case damping, and protected-party incidence constraints."},{"name":"Liquidity at Risk joint solvency-liquidity stress test","source_ids":["S2"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":false,"overlap":"Models granular balance-sheet dynamics, endogenous funding stress, fire sales, loss amplification, and mitigating actions that separate tests may miss.","remaining_difference":"It is a structural scenario framework rather than observational invariant-mode discovery and does not select actions by lowering a robust spectral gain relative to no action and a transition-based rival."},{"name":"Optimal macroprudential closed-loop eigenvalue stabilization","source_ids":["S4"],"same_problem":false,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"Uses transition matrices, controllability, identification, and closed-loop eigenvalues to characterize stabilizing financial policy.","remaining_difference":"It addresses aggregate rational-expectations policy rules rather than a bank's empirical weekly balance sheet, and it lacks the proposal's data, residual, drift, action-episode, and incidence tests."},{"name":"Established integrated ALM and stress-testing practice","source_ids":["S6","S7","S8"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":false,"overlap":"Combines multiple balance-sheet risks, dynamic projections, scenarios, governance, monitoring, and supervisory review rather than relying solely on isolated ratios.","remaining_difference":"The retained standards and product material do not disclose invariant-mode detection, spectral-gap acceptance, action-conditioned operator identification, or worst-case modal damping."}],"contrastive_claim_remaining":"For one prespecified institution and regime, a regularized weekly spectral transition model that passes residual, separation, uncertainty, and drift gates will add locked-period detection value beyond named limits, a joint solvency-liquidity stress model, and an existing DMD or transition-based rival; conditional on separately identified or bounded action responses, at least one permitted action will reduce worst-case dominant-mode gain beyond no action and the rival without breaching incidence budgets. The detection and damping clauses are separable, and only their combination remains distinct in this search.","contrastive_claim_falsifier":"The claim is falsified if locked data show no prespecified incremental detection value, mode instability or residual failure, or if no action class has an identified or bounded response whose worst-case gain and affected-party outcomes improve on no action and the strongest transition-based rival. Discovery of a documented routine implementation combining these same institution-level spectral detection, robust action-damping, validation, drift, and incidence features would also overturn the adjacent-art disposition.","confidence":"MODERATE","search_limitations":"The bounded search covered direct formulations, closest mechanisms, older early-warning and CAMEL terminology, official standards and commercial ALM products, French/German/Spanish/Japanese queries, and component combinations. It did not access proprietary bank models, paid implementation documentation, confidential supervisory systems, patent databases, or every regional language. S3's host blocked direct opening, although its indexed abstract was available and the retained URL was explicitly opened. Search results cannot establish exhaustive world novelty or routine use inside undisclosing institutions."},"researchability_gates":{"externally_supported_problem":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"Multiple independent primary and official sources show that coupled solvency, liquidity, duration, leverage, and funding effects can be overlooked or underestimated when assessed separately and can produce funding stress, fire sales, and loss amplification.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S5","S8"]},"identifiable_adopter_or_authorizer":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"Banks' treasury, ALM, and risk functions are identifiable analytical adopters; bank governance and prudential authorities are identifiable reviewers or authorizers. Commercial products and official principles document these roles.","source_ids":["S6","S7"]},"distinct_testable_incremental_claim":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"Close art covers each major ingredient, including DMD-based banking instability and eigenvalue-based policy stabilization, but the searched sources do not document the complete institution-level package. Incremental detection and damping can be tested separately against named close rivals with locked criteria.","source_ids":["S2","S3","S4","S7"]},"bounded_next_evidence_step":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"A preregistered no-action retrospective study using 260 weekly observations, fixed 60/20/20 splits, locked comparators, and explicit residual, separation, drift, and incidence gates is bounded. Action testing can be withheld unless the required exogenous episodes and response bounds exist.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S3","S5"]},"no_unresolved_safety_or_authority_stop":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"The authorized first step is analysis-only; live trading, asset sales, customer restrictions, and policy changes are excluded. Existing stress-testing principles support governance and supervisory challenge, while the proposed halt rules prevent use when identification, uncertainty, model validity, or affected-party budgets fail.","source_ids":["S6"]},"adequate_search_evidence":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"All six required lanes were searched adversarially. Exactly eight retained direct sources were reviewed, spanning six independent publishers and including primary research, official guidance, and a first-party product. The inaccessible full text and proprietary-practice limitations are disclosed without treating phrase misses as novelty evidence.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S3","S4","S5","S6","S7","S8"]}},"strict_success":true,"screen_survival":true,"remaining_research_value":"MODERATE","recommended_next_step":"Conduct the detection-only preregistered study first. Benchmark the proposed weekly modes against separate limits, the S2-style joint solvency-liquidity framework, a conventional transition model, and the S3 DMD approach; lock scaling, spectral separation, residual, drift, and tail-event metrics before fitting. Proceed to any damping analysis only for action classes with at least 12 defensibly exogenous episodes or accounting-based admissible response bounds, and keep all live actions out of scope.","world_novelty_boundary":"This bounded public-web review supports only an adjacent-prior-art disposition and a narrow, falsifiable incremental research claim. It does not establish world novelty, patentability, freedom to operate, market size, routine internal practice, regulatory acceptance, superiority, or realized impact."}