{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp11_mechanism_context_external20_20260804","research_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp11_external_scrutiny_20260804","cell_id":"invariant_mode_decomposition_design__organizational_management","opaque_id":"invariant_mode_decomposition_design__organizational_management__B","search_lanes":{"direct_problem":{"queries":["cross functional project workload dependencies rework overtime schedule delay system dynamics study","software delivery workload work in progress dependency wait rework burnout delayed commitments evidence","project overload multi-project settings stress schedule deviation","cooperative planning cross-functional rework project delay"],"source_ids":["SRC2","SRC3","SRC4"],"no_result_note":null},"closest_prior_art":{"queries":["project management system dynamics eigenvalue modes workload rework delivery delay","work transformation matrix eigenvalues project management rework","design structure matrix eigenvalue rework project management coupled tasks","linear system resource allocation time-varying dependency product development"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC5","SRC8"],"no_result_note":null},"historical_terminology":{"queries":["Smith Eppinger 1997 identifying controlling features engineering design iteration eigenvalues","work transformation matrix design modes coupled iteration","project overload multi-project fire fighting resource allocation syndrome","critical chain design structure matrix rework buffer"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC4","SRC8"],"no_result_note":null},"products_practices_standards":{"queries":["official Kanban Guide WIP flow metrics","PMI portfolio standard workload dependencies supply demand monitoring","project portfolio management dependencies rework schedule standard","value stream management cycle time WIP blocked work cross-team"],"source_ids":["SRC6","SRC7"],"no_result_note":null},"non_english_regional":{"queries":["gestión multiproyecto sobrecarga dependencias retrabajo retrasos dinámica de sistemas","gestão de projetos carga de trabalho dependências retrabalho atraso dinâmica de sistemas","项目管理 工作负荷 依赖 等待 返工 延期 系统动力学","考虑返工 项目进度 缓冲 管理 设计结构矩阵"],"source_ids":["SRC8"],"no_result_note":null},"composition_subproblems":{"queries":["cluster randomized workplace intervention workload overtime worker wellbeing trial teams","randomized trial work in progress limits software teams delivery","protected quality capacity dependency resolution hours randomized project management","state space panel model organizational workload randomized control eigenmodes"],"source_ids":["SRC2","SRC3","SRC4","SRC5","SRC6","SRC7"],"no_result_note":null}},"sources":[{"source_id":"SRC1","title":"Identifying Controlling Features of Engineering Design Iteration","url":"https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/mnsc.43.3.276","publisher":"INFORMS / Management Science","date_or_year":"1997","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","language":"English","claims_supported":["Coupling among engineering tasks can generate recurring project iteration.","The work transformation matrix predicts slow and rapid convergence and identifies coupled controlling features or design modes.","The model was illustrated on an automotive brake-system development process, making it close domain-specific prior art for eigenmode-guided project improvement."]},{"source_id":"SRC2","title":"The effects of schedule-driven project management in multi-project environments","url":"https://personalpages.manchester.ac.uk/staff/nuno.gil/Journal%20articles/IJPM%20Schedule-driven%20project%20management.pdf","publisher":"International Journal of Project Management / University of Manchester author copy","date_or_year":"2012","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","language":"English","claims_supported":["A system-dynamics simulation grounded in fieldwork found that reallocating scarce staff to rescue one late project can create a self-reinforcing cycle of switching, productivity loss, and later delays across concurrent projects.","The study identifies top and middle management as actors able to negotiate resources, maintain slack, and take a portfolio-wide view.","Its evidence is field-grounded simulation rather than a randomized field intervention."]},{"source_id":"SRC3","title":"Cooperative Planning, Uncertainty and Managerial Control in Concurrent Design","url":"https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=909606","publisher":"Management Science / SSRN","date_or_year":"2007","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","language":"English","claims_supported":["Survey data from 120 business-process redesign and IT-development projects linked upstream and downstream rework to downstream delay and overall project delay.","Cooperative planning through upstream/downstream strategy coupling and cross-functional involvement reduced downstream rework.","The study supports managerial controllability of coordination and rework but does not test modal control."]},{"source_id":"SRC4","title":"Project overload: An exploratory study of work and management in multi-project settings","url":"https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222676592_Project_overload_An_exploratory_study_of_work_and_management_in_multi-project_settings","publisher":"International Journal of Project Management / ResearchGate author copy","date_or_year":"2006","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","language":"English","claims_supported":["A survey of 392 workers in nine Swedish companies found that almost one-third reported project overload.","Overload was associated with scarce time, inadequate routines, multiple simultaneous projects, limited recuperation, psychological stress, and schedule deviation.","The authors explicitly caution that the cross-sectional associations do not establish causal direction."]},{"source_id":"SRC5","title":"Resource Optimization of Product Development Projects with Time-Varying Dependency Structure","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.09964","publisher":"Research in Engineering Design / arXiv","date_or_year":"2019","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","language":"English","claims_supported":["The paper models exchanges between system-integration and local development teams as a time-varying linear system.","It optimizes resource allocation to reduce lead time under changing inter-team dependencies.","It is adjacent mathematical prior art but uses illustrative analysis rather than an empirically estimated program-week mode with randomized control effects."]},{"source_id":"SRC6","title":"The Kanban Guide","url":"https://kanbanguides.org/the-kanban-guide/","publisher":"Kanban Guides","date_or_year":"2025","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","language":"English","claims_supported":["Kanban practice already requires collection and analysis of WIP, throughput, work-item age, and cycle-time measures.","Controlling WIP is an established intervention for improving flow, focus, and collaboration.","The guide leaves organizations to decide how metrics inform practice and does not prescribe eigenmode estimation or randomized modal control."]},{"source_id":"SRC7","title":"The Standard for Portfolio Management — Third Edition","url":"https://www.pmi.org/-/media/pmi/documents/public/pdf/certifications/standard-for-portfolio-management-third-edition.pdf","publisher":"Project Management Institute","date_or_year":"2013","source_type":"OFFICIAL_STANDARD","language":"English","claims_supported":["PMI defines authorizing, controlling, oversight, and supply-and-demand management responsibilities at portfolio level.","The standard states that workload fluctuations, unexpected delays, and unrecognized inter-component dependencies can make resources unavailable and prevent planned work.","Portfolio managers are expected to monitor resource utilization and demand continuously, perform scenario analysis, and reprioritize components when constrained."]},{"source_id":"SRC8","title":"考虑返工的项目进度缓冲管理框架研究 (Research on Buffer Management Framework for Project Schedule Control in Rework Scenarios)","url":"https://image.hanspub.org/Html/15-2330843_83435.htm","publisher":"Hans Publishers / Modern Management","date_or_year":"2024","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","language":"Chinese with English title and abstract metadata","claims_supported":["The paper treats rework as an important cause of schedule delay and models activity dependencies using a design structure matrix.","It allocates buffers using rework-sensitivity indicators to focus managerial attention on critical activities.","Simulation results report more reliable duration estimates and higher on-time completion, providing regional prior art for matrix-guided rework control but not for randomized empirical eigenmodes."]}],"problem_evidence":{"status":"PARTLY_SUPPORTED","finding":"The broader problem is well supported: multi-project and cross-functional work can couple scarce capacity, task switching, dependencies, rework, schedule pressure, stress, and missed commitments. Field-grounded simulation, two multi-company surveys, and a cross-functional project survey converge on that package. Public evidence does not establish the proposal's sharper signature that a modest demand increase produces a reproducible latent program-week mode while every single-team alarm remains nominal.","source_ids":["SRC2","SRC3","SRC4","SRC7"],"uncertainty":"Much of the evidence is cross-sectional, field-grounded simulation, or drawn from engineering/product-development settings. Causal direction, generalization to other cross-functional programs, the no-silo-alarm condition, subgroup inequality, and the exact eight-variable dynamic state remain unproven."},"adopter_evidence":{"status":"SUPPORTED","finding":"An identifiable adopter and authorizer exist: program sponsors, portfolio managers, PMOs, and participating program or functional leads already hold responsibilities for authorization, oversight, supply-demand balancing, resource allocation, and cross-project coordination. Workers and people-data governance bodies remain necessary participants for strain measurement and protection.","source_ids":["SRC2","SRC4","SRC7"],"uncertainty":"Formal authority varies by organization, and shared-team exclusions or labor arrangements may prevent a sponsor from independently randomizing workload controls."},"implementation_evidence":{"status":"PARTLY_SUPPORTED","finding":"The component methods are feasible separately: work-transformation matrices identify design modes, linear-system models support dependency-sensitive resource allocation, portfolio systems collect relevant flow data, and WIP control is established practice. No retained source demonstrates the complete empirical composition: regularized panel estimation of a stable aggregate program-week A, separation of randomized B and observed shocks C, left-mode projection of B, prospective drift and conditioning gates, and a powered locked-policy trial with quality and subgroup-strain noninferiority.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC5","SRC6","SRC7","SRC8"],"uncertainty":"Twenty-four transitions per program and 32 clusters may be inadequate for stable eigenbasis recovery or an eight-cell factorial comparison; interference, adherence, common-week shocks, changing measurement definitions, non-normality, and near-degenerate modes remain material feasibility risks."},"prior_art":{"disposition":"ADJACENT_PRIOR_ART","closest_analogues":[{"name":"Smith–Eppinger work transformation matrix and design modes","source_ids":["SRC1"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"Models coupled project work as a transformation matrix, examines eigenvalues/design modes, identifies dominant controlling features, and uses them to prioritize process improvement and shorten development.","remaining_difference":"It is task-level engineering-design iteration, not an empirically estimated program-week state spanning flow, delivery, and worker strain; it does not separately identify randomized control effects B, require held-out predictive lift, or test subgroup harm."},{"name":"Yaghootkar–Gil multi-project system-dynamics control model","source_ids":["SRC2"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":false,"overlap":"Represents coupled workload, resource switching, productivity, and schedule performance as an endogenous dynamic system and evaluates management policies affecting delivery reliability.","remaining_difference":"Its causal representation is a field-grounded feedback simulation rather than data-estimated invariant modes with randomized control-to-mode projections."},{"name":"Ogura–Harada–Kishida–Yassine time-varying linear-system resource optimization","source_ids":["SRC5"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":false,"overlap":"Uses a linear dynamical model of changing dependencies between development teams and optimizes resource allocation to shorten lead time.","remaining_difference":"It optimizes modeled dependency parameters and provides illustrative analyses; it does not discover a stable risky mode from aggregate operational data or validate controls through clustered randomization."},{"name":"Cooperative planning for cross-functional rework control","source_ids":["SRC3"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":false,"overlap":"Connects cross-functional coupling, rework, managerial coordination, and project delay, with an empirically supported managerial intervention pathway.","remaining_difference":"It uses project-level survey relationships and cooperative planning rather than weekly state transitions, modal coordinates, randomized B estimates, or a locked modal policy."},{"name":"DSM and sensitivity-based rework buffer management","source_ids":["SRC8"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":false,"overlap":"Uses a matrix of coupled activities plus rework-sensitivity measures to direct buffers and managerial attention toward schedule-critical work.","remaining_difference":"It is a simulated scheduling and buffer-allocation framework, not an observational-plus-randomized decomposition of endogenous propagation, shocks, and controls."}],"contrastive_claim_remaining":"Across independently managed cross-functional programs, a preregistered, bootstrap-stable mode of an empirically estimated aggregate program-week transition matrix will recur on held-out programs, improve collapse prediction by at least 10% over individual-metric, shock, and single-bottleneck models, and have a directionally reproducible response to randomized protective controls projected through the mode's left vector; a separately powered locked rule based on those projections will reduce modal amplitude and late commitments without degrading quality or any preregistered worker-group strain outcome.","contrastive_claim_falsifier":"No regularized A survives blocked validation and stability gates; the retained mode fails to recur or add the preregistered predictive lift; a common shock or single bottleneck explains it; randomized controls have no predicted modal effect; or the locked comparison fails on modal or delivery outcomes or crosses a quality or subgroup-strain harm margin.","confidence":"MODERATE","search_limitations":"The bounded search covered direct descriptions, work-transformation/design-structure terminology, system dynamics, linear control, portfolio standards, Kanban practice, and Chinese, Spanish, Portuguese, and German terminology. It cannot exclude undisclosed corporate analytics, consulting methods, inaccessible literature, patents, or additional regional terminology, and it does not establish novelty, patentability, freedom to operate, adoption prevalence, or impact."},"researchability_gates":{"externally_supported_problem":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"Independent research supports coupled overload, resource switching, rework, stress, and schedule loss in multi-project and cross-functional work, although the exact silent-silo modal signature remains a hypothesis.","source_ids":["SRC2","SRC3","SRC4","SRC7"]},"identifiable_adopter_or_authorizer":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"Program sponsors, portfolio managers, PMOs, and participating leads are identifiable authorizers with recognized responsibility for portfolio authorization, oversight, resource balancing, and reprioritization.","source_ids":["SRC2","SRC7"]},"distinct_testable_incremental_claim":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"Close matrix, systems-dynamics, and dependency-control art exists, but none of the retained sources combines empirical program-week eigenmodes, randomized B projection, held-out incremental prediction, a locked policy comparison, and disaggregated strain safeguards. That remainder has explicit quantitative falsifiers.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC5","SRC8"]},"bounded_next_evidence_step":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"A bounded sequence exists: first audit measurement consistency, cluster independence, missingness, historical transition counts, basis conditioning, and simulation-based power; proceed to the preregistered factorial cluster-randomized identification study only if those gates pass. The intervention set and stop rules are finite and observable.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC4","SRC5","SRC6","SRC7"]},"no_unresolved_safety_or_authority_stop":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"The proposal excludes individual scoring, discipline, secret surveillance, staffing cuts, forced overtime, and automated personnel action; it requires aggregate data, consultation, governance, independent review, subgroup harm monitoring, and rollback. Worker strain is a demonstrated risk, but these constraints make it a monitored stop condition rather than an unresolved categorical stop.","source_ids":["SRC4","SRC7"]},"adequate_search_evidence":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"All six required lanes were searched adversarially, including older WTM/DSM and project-overload terminology, standards and practices, four non-English language families, and component combinations. Exactly eight retained sources were opened, span six independent publisher or host organizations, and include multiple primary studies plus official guidance and a professional standard.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4","SRC5","SRC6","SRC7","SRC8"]}},"strict_success":true,"screen_survival":true,"remaining_research_value":"MODERATE","recommended_next_step":"Conduct a preregistered, non-interventional feasibility and simulation-based power audit on the candidate programs before randomization. Lock metric definitions and group protections; verify at least 24 comparable transitions, effective sample size, cluster independence, missingness, shock logging, blocked predictive lift, eigenbasis conditioning, bootstrap angle and gap stability, and factorial power. Only after every gate passes should the sponsor and worker-governance body authorize the protective-control identification trial; reserve the locked-policy comparison for independently powered confirmation.","world_novelty_boundary":"This bounded public-web review found close but not dispositive prior art and supports only a contrastive incremental research claim. It does not establish world novelty, patentability, freedom to operate, market size, routine adoption, realized impact, or legal sufficiency."}