{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp11_mechanism_context_external20_20260804","research_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp11_external_scrutiny_20260804","cell_id":"layer_decay_and_expiration_management__earth_sciences","opaque_id":"layer_decay_and_expiration_management__earth_sciences__A","search_lanes":{"direct_problem":{"queries":["geological sample repository storage capacity backlog curation drill core","drill core library sample disposal retention schedule","legacy drill core new analytical techniques scientific value repository reanalysis study"],"source_ids":["SRC2","SRC4","SRC5","SRC8"],"no_result_note":null},"closest_prior_art":{"queries":["geological core repository retention deaccession policy drill core samples disposal","geological collections management policy deaccession duplicate samples retention","site:gov.au drill core library retention disposal policy"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4"],"no_result_note":null},"historical_terminology":{"queries":["geological specimen archive culling weeding rationalisation core collection historical","archived geological samples new methods future research value drill core collection"],"source_ids":["SRC2","SRC4","SRC8"],"no_result_note":null},"products_practices_standards":{"queries":["site:spnhc.org deaccession policy natural history collections guidelines","NPS museum handbook deaccession natural history specimen standards legal documentation","IGSN physical samples metadata provenance repository standard geological samples","geological sample management software core repository inventory product barcode"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC3","SRC6","SRC7"],"no_result_note":null},"non_english_regional":{"queries":["Kernarchiv Bohrkerne Aussonderung Aufbewahrung Richtlinie","gestão acervo geológico testemunhos sondagem descarte amostras política"],"source_ids":["SRC5"],"no_result_note":"The German query did not yield a retained direct source; the Portuguese search yielded an official Brazilian report directly documenting volume, storage constraints, prospective disposal, and preservation by scanning."},"composition_subproblems":{"queries":["drill core annual review scoring disposal metadata database approval","geological sample persistent identifier provenance duplicate repository","drill core digitisation physical retention future analytical techniques","geological repository hazardous samples disposal safety officer"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC6","SRC8"],"no_result_note":null}},"sources":[{"source_id":"SRC1","title":"The U.S. Geological Survey Geologic Collections Management System (GCMS)—A Master Catalog and Collections Management Plan for U.S. Geological Survey Geologic Samples and Sample Collections","url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1410/","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","date_or_year":"2015","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","language":"English","claims_supported":["USGS developed common practices for collection, retention, access, storage, transfer, and disposal of geologic research materials.","The system includes a master catalog, required metadata for old and new collections, evaluation criteria, protocols, and templates adaptable by repositories."]},{"source_id":"SRC2","title":"Archival Policies and Collections Database for the Woods Hole Science Center's Marine Sediment Samples—Deaccession & Disposal","url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2006/1187/htmldocs/dispose.htm","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","date_or_year":"2006","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","language":"English","claims_supported":["A geologic-sample repository policy already uses annual review, age-based eligibility, condition and duplication criteria, curator and committee review, senior scientific approval, public notice, and a waiting period.","The policy provides transfer or alternate-storage pathways, hazardous-material consultation, permanent disposition records, and annual reporting.","Age makes a sample eligible for review but does not alone complete deaccession."]},{"source_id":"SRC3","title":"Drillcore acceptance, disposal and access—policy and procedures","url":"https://www.resourcesregulator.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-12/nsw-drillcore-policy-procedure.pdf","publisher":"Geological Survey of New South Wales / NSW Department of Industry","date_or_year":"2016","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","language":"English","claims_supported":["NSW manages drill-core acceptance, inventory, storage, access, sampling, hazards, and disposal through published procedures.","Disposal can follow annual review, quantitative scoring, duplication or condition assessment, space pressure, and evaluation of remaining geological context.","A department geoscientist must approve disposal; the title holder receives an opportunity to reacquire material; disposal status must remain in the drillhole database and report metadata.","The policy includes specific controls for asbestos, radioactive samples, PPE, monitoring, incident response, and safety roles."]},{"source_id":"SRC4","title":"Deaccessioning materials","url":"https://www.bgs.ac.uk/geological-data/national-geological-repository/ngr-deaccessioning-materials/","publisher":"British Geological Survey","date_or_year":"Undated; accessed 2026","source_type":"FIRST_PARTY_PRODUCT","language":"English","claims_supported":["The UK National Geological Repository receives important new material regularly while treating capacity as an ongoing concern.","BGS describes collection rationalisation and deaccession as part of responsible management.","Surplus by formation or location and condition-limited scientific value are considered, with relocation preferred where academic, scientific, or educational benefit exists."]},{"source_id":"SRC5","title":"Projeto de Assistência Técnica dos Setores de Energia e Mineral—Relatório de Progresso do Segundo Semestre de 2017","url":"https://www.gov.br/mme/pt-br/assuntos/secretarias/secretaria-executiva/meta-2/documentacao/relatorios-de-progresso/arquivos/rp-2o-sem-2017.pdf","publisher":"Ministério de Minas e Energia, Brazil","date_or_year":"2017","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","language":"Portuguese","claims_supported":["Brazilian mining, petroleum, and construction activity generates thousands of metres of drill core annually, and companies face storage difficulty and cost after projects end.","Brazil's geological service reported that remaining physical space in ten regional lithotecas was insufficient for all potentially donated core.","The report proposed hyperspectral scanning and an associated database to preserve information before disposal, while noting that implementation depended on funding."]},{"source_id":"SRC6","title":"IGSN Overview","url":"https://igsn.github.io/overview/","publisher":"International Generic Sample Number Implementation Organization (IGSN e.V.)","date_or_year":"2024; accessed 2026","source_type":"OFFICIAL_STANDARD","language":"English","claims_supported":["IGSN provides persistent unique identification for physical samples and supports discovery, citation, data preservation, and interoperable catalogues.","IGSN identifiers are represented in DataCite as PhysicalObject DOIs, with community-specific metadata mapped into DataCite metadata.","Persistent identification is an established component for reducing ambiguous sample identity, but IGSN does not itself decide retention or disposal."]},{"source_id":"SRC7","title":"National Park Service Museum Handbook","url":"https://www.nps.gov/subjects/museums/museumhandbook.htm","publisher":"U.S. National Park Service","date_or_year":"Updated 2022","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","language":"English","claims_supported":["Official museum-management guidance applicable to geology and paleontology covers planning, preservation, storage, health and safety, documentation, accountability, inventory, deaccessioning, and legal issues.","The handbook supplies customizable procedures and forms, showing that formal lifecycle governance is standard collections-management infrastructure."]},{"source_id":"SRC8","title":"Why do we store geological core?","url":"https://www.bgs.ac.uk/news/why-do-we-store-geological-core/","publisher":"British Geological Survey","date_or_year":"2025","source_type":"FIRST_PARTY_PRODUCT","language":"English","claims_supported":["Physical space is constrained and not every offered specimen can be retained; selection and rare disposal consider geological value, abundance, and deterioration.","Digitisation improves discovery and analysis but cannot preserve information obtainable by future techniques, so it is not a full substitute for physical core.","Old core has acquired unforeseen value for carbon-storage and geothermal questions, and some material is unique or cannot practically be recollected."]}],"problem_evidence":{"status":"SUPPORTED","finding":"The capacity–evidence tension exists. BGS reports continual accession pressure, selective retention, and rationalisation; Brazil's ministry reported insufficient lithoteca space for prospective donations; and USGS policy expressly treats storage limitation, duplication, deterioration, and missing information as lifecycle issues. BGS also documents why apparent nonuse or digitisation cannot safely establish dispensability: old core gains unforeseen uses and may be irreplaceable.","source_ids":["SRC2","SRC4","SRC5","SRC8"],"uncertainty":"The sources establish that accumulation and capacity pressure can occur, but they do not quantify whether accumulation exceeds curation at the particular repository or aisle proposed for the pilot. That local condition remains empirical."},"adopter_evidence":{"status":"SUPPORTED","finding":"Identifiable adopters and authorizers already exist: repository curators and collections committees in the USGS example, the approving Team Chief Scientist, NSW's Manager Core Library and responsible Department Geoscientist, and institutional collections managers operating under formal handbooks. These are close matches to the proposed repository board, legal custodian, and scientific reviewer roles.","source_ids":["SRC2","SRC3","SRC7"],"uncertainty":"No specific repository has committed to this exact shadow pilot, so willingness and local delegation must still be confirmed."},"implementation_evidence":{"status":"SUPPORTED","finding":"Substantially similar lifecycle mechanisms are implemented or formally prescribed: catalog and metadata control; evaluation criteria; annual review; age, duplication, condition, significance, and space triggers; scoring; scientific approval; notice and waiting periods; transfer or alternate storage; permanent disposition records; and hazard controls. Persistent sample identifiers and interoperable metadata are also available. The sources do not report a controlled evaluation of the exact no-destruction aisle-level bundle or its effect sizes.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4","SRC6","SRC7"],"uncertainty":"Policies demonstrate operational adoption, not consistent execution or improved retrieval, capacity, and classification outcomes. Hot/warm/cold tier labels, explicit rollback restoration, and the proposed performance measures were not found together in one retained source."},"prior_art":{"disposition":"ESTABLISHED_PRACTICE","closest_analogues":[{"name":"USGS Woods Hole marine sediment archive deaccession and disposition workflow","source_ids":["SRC2"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"Annual whole-archive review, age eligibility, condition and duplication criteria, curator and committee decisions, senior scientific approval, public notice, a one-month waiting period, alternate storage or transfer, hazardous-material review, and permanent audit records closely reproduce the proposed gated lifecycle.","remaining_difference":"It does not report a frozen-aisle no-destruction shadow comparison, hot/warm/cold access tiers, retrieval-task testing, or measured false-expiry and staff-effort outcomes."},{"name":"NSW drillcore acceptance, scoring, annual review, disposal, and metadata procedures","source_ids":["SRC3"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"The policy combines quantitative selection criteria, annual review, duplicate and condition screening, significance and context checks, partial thinning, digital records, scientific approval, reacquisition opportunity, disposition metadata, and extensive hazard controls.","remaining_difference":"It is an operational policy rather than a comparative test of evidence-aware tiering against a local retain-in-place baseline, and it does not specify a reversible quarantine trial."},{"name":"USGS Geologic Collections Management System","source_ids":["SRC1"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"A repository-wide catalog plus standardized evaluation, metadata, access, storage, transfer, retention, and disposal protocols covers most of the proposed management architecture.","remaining_difference":"The guidance is flexible and broad; it does not establish the proposed aisle-scale causal evaluation or its outcome thresholds."},{"name":"British Geological Survey collection rationalisation and relocation practice","source_ids":["SRC4","SRC8"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"BGS explicitly balances regular additions and scarce space through value-based selection, rationalisation, deaccession, relocation, and preservation of unique or future-use material.","remaining_difference":"The public pages do not disclose a detailed evidence-risk score, exception ledger, rollback window, or controlled performance comparison."}],"contrastive_claim_remaining":"At a named repository that currently retains most lots in active storage, a frozen-aisle, no-destruction shadow application of an explicit evidence-risk rubric plus identity, hold, provenance, dependency, retrieval, and reconstruction checks will improve catalog completeness and projected usable active capacity without materially worsening retrieval time, generating false-expiry classifications, or imposing disproportionate staff effort. This is a local implementation-effectiveness claim, not a new lifecycle-management concept.","contrastive_claim_falsifier":"Falsify the incremental claim if the reconciled aisle shows no material capacity or retrieval problem, or if the shadow workflow produces no improvement in catalog completeness or projected usable capacity, causes material retrieval delay or false-expiry classifications after checks, or requires staff effort exceeding a predeclared operational threshold.","confidence":"HIGH","search_limitations":"The bounded search covered direct statements, close policies, older archival terminology, standards and products, Portuguese and German terminology, and component combinations. It retained and opened exactly eight direct sources from six independent publishing organizations. It did not exhaust private repository manuals, non-indexed records, procurement systems, patents, all languages, or every jurisdiction; therefore it cannot establish world novelty, patentability, freedom to operate, market size, realized impact, or universal routine compliance."},"researchability_gates":{"externally_supported_problem":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"Multiple official repository sources document ongoing additions, limited space, storage-cost pressure, rationalisation, and disposal risk, while BGS documents irreplaceability and unforeseen future uses.","source_ids":["SRC2","SRC4","SRC5","SRC8"]},"identifiable_adopter_or_authorizer":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"Repository curators, collections committees, senior scientists, core-library managers, department geoscientists, and institutional collections authorities are explicitly identified as decision makers.","source_ids":["SRC2","SRC3","SRC7"]},"distinct_testable_incremental_claim":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"Although the intervention class is established practice, a distinct local comparative claim remains: the explicit no-destruction gated bundle can be tested against retain-in-place practice on completeness, retrieval, capacity, false-expiry, and labor outcomes.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3"]},"bounded_next_evidence_step":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"A 90-day frozen-roster shadow pilot on one aisle is finite, measurable, reversible, and requires no destruction. Existing catalog, scoring, and disposition practices make the workflow operationally legible.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC6"]},"no_unresolved_safety_or_authority_stop":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"The authorized first step is non-destructive and can halt on identity, hold, uniqueness, or retrieval failures. Existing policies show how scientific approval, disposition records, hazardous-material review, asbestos controls, and radiation responsibilities can govern any later action. Separate authorization would still be mandatory before physical disposal.","source_ids":["SRC2","SRC3","SRC7"]},"adequate_search_evidence":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"All six mandated lanes were searched adversarially, including older vocabulary, formal standards and repository products, Portuguese and German regional terms, and combined component queries. Exactly eight opened sources were retained, with several official or standards sources and multiple independent publishers.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4","SRC5","SRC6","SRC7","SRC8"]}},"strict_success":false,"screen_survival":false,"remaining_research_value":"MODERATE","recommended_next_step":"Secure one repository's written authorization and pre-register a 90-day, no-destruction shadow pilot on a frozen aisle roster. Define thresholds for inventory reconciliation coverage, unmatched lots, metadata completeness, median and tail retrieval time, projected active-space release, false-expiry findings, hold mismatches, and staff hours. Compare with the prior baseline, halt on any unresolved identity, hold, unique-evidence, hazard, or retrieval-delay case, and make no transfer or disposal decision during the pilot.","world_novelty_boundary":"The search shows that the core problem–intervention package is established repository practice, while leaving a narrower local evaluation claim about the measured performance of the explicit reversible bundle. The bounded evidence cannot establish world novelty, patentability, freedom to operate, market size, realized impact, or absence of undiscovered implementations."}