{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp11_mechanism_context_external20_20260804","research_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp11_external_scrutiny_20260804","cell_id":"layer_decay_and_expiration_management__earth_sciences","opaque_id":"layer_decay_and_expiration_management__earth_sciences__B","search_lanes":{"direct_problem":{"queries":["geologic hazard map superseded version current archival product metadata","outdated hazard maps used planning obsolete flood maps problem study","hazard map version control archival current operational outdated"],"source_ids":["S1","S2"],"no_result_note":null},"closest_prior_art":{"queries":["FEMA flood map products superseded archived historic FIRM current effective map","hazard map catalog current effective superseded archive version FEMA","geological survey product obsolescence replacement withdrawal"],"source_ids":["S2","S7"],"no_result_note":null},"historical_terminology":{"queries":["geospatial metadata status superseded obsolete dataset standard lifecycle","record expired supersededBy dataset metadata","older geospatial catalog obsolete resource terminology"],"source_ids":["S3","S8"],"no_result_note":null},"products_practices_standards":{"queries":["geospatial dataset lifecycle status deprecated withdrawn standard","ArcGIS replace web tile layer archive revert","geospatial product planned obsolescence alternative product withdrawal"],"source_ids":["S2","S3","S4","S7"],"no_result_note":null},"non_english_regional":{"queries":["ハザードマップ 旧版 更新 廃止 最新版 地質","mapa de peligros versión anterior sustituye mapa actualizado archivo","carte aléa version obsolète remplacée archivage métadonnées géographiques","Gefahrenkarte veraltet ersetzt aktuelle Version Archiv Metadaten"],"source_ids":["S7"],"no_result_note":"The retained regional source is the official Catalan geological and cartographic institute's English-language page; non-English searches did not yield a stronger directly inspectable hazard-layer lifecycle source."},"composition_subproblems":{"queries":["geospatial dataset supersession relation replaced by dependency provenance citation archive standard","USGS records retention scientific data legal hold deletion geospatial products","geospatial layer replacement archive rollback product documentation","dataset lifecycle status version replaces isReferencedBy metadata"],"source_ids":["S3","S4","S5","S6","S8"],"no_result_note":null}},"sources":[{"source_id":"S1","title":"Flood Map Modernization: Program Strategy Shows Promise, but Challenges Remain (GAO-04-417)","url":"https://www.gao.gov/assets/a241973.html","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date_or_year":"2004","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","language":"English","claims_supported":["Flood-hazard maps can become outdated because physical conditions and assessment techniques change.","FEMA estimated in 2004 that nearly 70 percent of U.S. flood maps were more than ten years old and reflected outdated data.","Flood maps have operational users including communities, FEMA, and regulated mortgage lenders."]},{"source_id":"S2","title":"FEMA Map Service Center training: current and all flood-map products","url":"https://emilms.fema.gov/is_0273/groups/173.html","publisher":"Federal Emergency Management Agency","date_or_year":"Undated; accessed 2026","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","language":"English","claims_supported":["FEMA distinguishes current effective flood-map data from preliminary and historic products.","The catalog exposes historic releases through a separate Show All Products path.","Static map images may require users to check later changes, demonstrating a version-selection dependency.","Historic products are retained while current effective data receive the primary operational workflow."]},{"source_id":"S3","title":"DCAT-US 3.0 Dataset specification","url":"https://resources.data.gov/standards/catalog/dcat-us-3/dataset/","publisher":"Data.gov / U.S. General Services Administration","date_or_year":"Version 3.0; accessed 2026","source_type":"OFFICIAL_STANDARD","language":"English","claims_supported":["The U.S. catalog specification defines dataset lifecycle status values including deprecated and withdrawn.","It provides machine-readable version, hasVersion, replaces, source, and isReferencedBy relationships.","Existing standards cover much of the proposed identity, chronology, supersession, provenance, and citation-dependency representation."]},{"source_id":"S4","title":"Replace a web tile layer","url":"https://doc.esri.com/en/arcgis-pro/latest/help/sharing/overview/replace-tile-layer.html","publisher":"Esri","date_or_year":"Current ArcGIS Pro documentation; accessed 2026","source_type":"FIRST_PARTY_PRODUCT","language":"English","claims_supported":["ArcGIS supports staged replacement of a live tile layer while retaining its stable service identity.","The replaced target is automatically archived with a timestamped name.","The archive permits reversion, implementing replacement, archival, and rollback for geospatial layers."]},{"source_id":"S5","title":"Preserve","url":"https://www.usgs.gov/data-management/preserve","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","date_or_year":"Policy effective 2016; accessed 2026","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","language":"English","claims_supported":["USGS requires preservation of scientific data and associated metadata.","Preservation responsibilities must be assigned in data-management plans.","Authoritative copies are retained in approved repositories subject to records-disposition law."]},{"source_id":"S6","title":"502.6 - Fundamental Science Practices: Scientific Data Management Lifecycle","url":"https://www.usgs.gov/survey-manual/5026-fundamental-science-practices-scientific-data-management-lifecycle","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","date_or_year":"2026-06-01","source_type":"OFFICIAL_STANDARD","language":"English","claims_supported":["USGS maps and dynamic, provisional, processed, and derived data fall within a governed scientific-data lifecycle.","Science Center Directors hold approval authority and assign data managers.","Data managers steward lifecycle activities, while the Records Management Officer governs records procedures.","The policy requires provenance, reproducibility, preservation, responsible parties, and consideration of records disposition."]},{"source_id":"S7","title":"Obsolescence of applications, products and services","url":"https://www.icgc.cat/en/Geoinformation-and-Maps/Obsolescence-applications-products-and-services","publisher":"Institut Cartogràfic i Geològic de Catalunya","date_or_year":"Current and historical schedules, 2021-2026","source_type":"FIRST_PARTY_PRODUCT","language":"English (Catalan regional publisher and terminology)","claims_supported":["A geological and cartographic institute operates an explicit deprecation lifecycle with notification, migration period, named alternative, and final withdrawal.","The published schedule includes geological-map, hydrogeological-map, geotechnical, and geological-hazard WMS products.","A geological-hazards WMS was marked obsolete, linked to a replacement, and withdrawn on a specified date.","This is direct regional evidence that a substantial hazard/geology product-lifecycle package is established practice."]},{"source_id":"S8","title":"Record information about data sets you share with others","url":"https://www.gov.uk/guidance/record-information-about-data-sets-you-share-with-others","publisher":"UK Government Digital Service and Central Digital and Data Office","date_or_year":"2020-08-07","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","language":"English","claims_supported":["Government metadata guidance uses expires and supersededBy to tell users which dataset version to use.","Superseded datasets should receive an expiry date while replacements receive new identifiers.","The page expressly routes geospatial data to specialized GEMINI metadata, so it supports the general component terminology rather than direct geospatial implementation."]}],"problem_evidence":{"status":"PARTLY_SUPPORTED","finding":"The operational staleness problem is real: official audit evidence shows hazard maps can cease to represent current conditions, and FEMA's product interface retains current, preliminary, historic, and amended releases that require version-aware use. However, the retained sources do not directly demonstrate that geological-survey catalogs generally fail to label lifecycle state or that emergency users actually select obsolete releases because of ambiguous discovery. FEMA and ICGC instead provide counterexamples with explicit current, historic, obsolete, replacement, and withdrawal distinctions.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S7"],"uncertainty":"The specific frequency of ambiguous releases, obsolete-release selection, copied-file bypass, and incomplete dependencies or holds remains unmeasured."},"adopter_evidence":{"status":"SUPPORTED","finding":"Identifiable adopters and authorizers exist. FEMA manages operational flood-map status and historical access; ICGC operates lifecycle transitions for geology and hazard geoservices; USGS assigns approval authority to Science Center Directors, stewardship to data managers, and records governance to its Records Management Officer.","source_ids":["S2","S6","S7"],"uncertainty":"Authority assignments may differ across national, state, local, and non-U.S. hazard programs, and emergency-management approval is not specified in the retained USGS sources."},"implementation_evidence":{"status":"SUPPORTED","finding":"The main mechanisms are demonstrably implementable and already deployed in pieces: DCAT-US supplies status, version, replacement, provenance, and citation relations; FEMA separates current, preliminary, and historic hazard products; ArcGIS supplies staged replacement, archival, and rollback; ICGC publishes deprecation, successor, migration, and withdrawal schedules; USGS requires preservation, provenance, responsible stewards, and records-compliant disposition.","source_ids":["S2","S3","S4","S5","S6","S7","S8"],"uncertainty":"No retained source demonstrates the entire proposed scoring, exception-register, dependency-impact, stale-context, and blinded-selection package in one hazard catalog, or quantifies its effect on selection errors."},"prior_art":{"disposition":"ESTABLISHED_PRACTICE","closest_analogues":[{"name":"ICGC planned obsolescence lifecycle for geological and geological-hazard geoservices","source_ids":["S7"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"Directly applies lifecycle state to geological and hazard WMS products using an obsolescence notice date, migration interval, named successor, and final withdrawal date.","remaining_difference":"It does not publicly show retained archive visibility, citation and legal-hold checks, risk scoring, deletion-impact estimates, or restoration procedures."},{"name":"FEMA Map Service Center current, preliminary, and historic flood-map workflow","source_ids":["S2"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"Separates current effective hazard information from preliminary and historic products, preserves older maps, exposes amendments, and gives the current product the primary operational path.","remaining_difference":"It does not expose the proposal's richer generic state machine, dependency register, preservation exceptions, impact estimates, or adjudication workflow."},{"name":"DCAT-US 3.0 lifecycle and relationship model","source_ids":["S3"],"same_problem":false,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"Standardizes lifecycle status, explicit versions, replacement links, sources, quality measures, and references or citations for cataloged datasets.","remaining_difference":"The fields are optional and domain-general; the standard does not prescribe hazard-science authority, search ranking, retention decisions, or user-error evaluation."},{"name":"ArcGIS web-tile replacement, archive, and reversion workflow","source_ids":["S4"],"same_problem":false,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"Implements staged replacement of an active geospatial layer, timestamps the archived predecessor, preserves stable operational identity, and permits rollback.","remaining_difference":"It is a technical publishing workflow rather than a scientific-authority, records-hold, dependency, or discovery-governance system."},{"name":"USGS scientific-data lifecycle and preservation governance","source_ids":["S5","S6"],"same_problem":false,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"Assigns lifecycle responsibility and approval authority and requires provenance, reproducibility, authoritative-copy preservation, repositories, and records-compliant disposition for scientific data including maps.","remaining_difference":"The policy does not itself provide hazard-release supersession labels, search defaults, lifecycle risk scores, or measured prevention of obsolete-map selection."}],"contrastive_claim_remaining":"A credible incremental evidence claim remains, but not a broad novelty claim: in a specific hazard catalog that already offers a canonical latest pointer, steward-adjudicated lifecycle labels plus replacement, dependency, hold, and archive state will reduce selection of superseded releases in blinded operational tasks without incorrectly demoting more than 2% of steward-confirmed current or dependency-critical layers.","contrastive_claim_falsifier":"The claim is falsified if a preregistered catalog audit finds lifecycle and dependency state already complete, or if the richer interface does not reduce obsolete-release selection relative to the latest-pointer rival, or if it falsely demotes more than 2% of confirmed current or dependency-critical releases.","confidence":"HIGH","search_limitations":"This bounded eight-source search cannot establish world novelty, patentability, freedom to operate, market size, or impact. It did not audit a live geological-survey catalog, inspect external mirrors, measure user selection errors, or locate a public implementation containing every proposed subcomponent. The non-English lane yielded a strong regional institutional source but limited directly inspectable non-English empirical evidence."},"researchability_gates":{"externally_supported_problem":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"Official evidence establishes that hazard maps become operationally stale and that multiple current, amended, preliminary, and historic products coexist. The narrower claim of inconsistent catalog labeling remains to be tested, but the documented condition is sufficient for a bounded audit.","source_ids":["S1","S2"]},"identifiable_adopter_or_authorizer":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"FEMA and ICGC are direct institutional adopters, while USGS policy identifies approving directors, data managers, and a records officer with relevant lifecycle authority.","source_ids":["S2","S6","S7"]},"distinct_testable_incremental_claim":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"Despite established lifecycle practice, the comparative claim about richer steward-adjudicated labels versus a canonical latest pointer has explicit error-reduction and false-demotion outcomes and is not resolved by the retained sources.","source_ids":["S2","S3","S7"]},"bounded_next_evidence_step":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"A read-only audit of 50 releases followed by blinded sandbox selection tasks is bounded, reversible, and can directly test metadata completeness, obsolete selection, adjudication disagreement, and false demotion without altering production products.","source_ids":["S2","S3","S4"]},"no_unresolved_safety_or_authority_stop":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"The proposed first step performs no deletion, warning change, or access removal. Existing governance provides identifiable approval, stewardship, preservation, and records-disposition roles. Production changes would still require those authorities, but they do not block the read-only pilot.","source_ids":["S5","S6"]},"adequate_search_evidence":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"All six lanes were searched adversarially, including older lifecycle terminology, standards and products, regional and non-English queries, and component combinations. Exactly eight opened direct sources span six independent publishers and are predominantly official, standards, or first-party materials.","source_ids":["S1","S2","S3","S4","S5","S6","S7","S8"]}},"strict_success":false,"screen_survival":false,"remaining_research_value":"MODERATE","recommended_next_step":"Preregister and run the proposed 30-day read-only pilot on one region and hazard family. Audit 50 release records for authoritative status, replacement links, citations, dependencies, holds, and archive recoverability; then compare the canonical-latest interface with the richer lifecycle interface in blinded sandbox tasks. Report obsolete-selection rate, task time, adjudication disagreement, metadata completeness, and false demotion, with no production deletion or visibility change.","world_novelty_boundary":"The search shows that lifecycle status, supersession links, current-versus-historic hazard products, planned withdrawal with successors, geospatial archival and rollback, preservation, and records governance are established practices. It does not establish whether the exact combined workflow has been deployed in every hazard domain or whether it improves user decisions in the proposed setting; it cannot establish world novelty or any legal or commercial conclusion."}