{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp11_mechanism_context_external20_20260804","research_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp11_external_scrutiny_20260804","cell_id":"layer_decay_and_expiration_management__earth_sciences","opaque_id":"layer_decay_and_expiration_management__earth_sciences__B","search_lanes":{"direct_problem":{"queries":["geologic hazard map catalog superseded current archive metadata obsolete map releases","FEMA flood map service center historic maps effective preliminary superseded map products","outdated hazard maps used planning obsolete geological hazard map consequences study","emergency managers used outdated maps hazard mapping version confusion"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC7","SRC8"],"no_result_note":null},"closest_prior_art":{"queries":["hazard map versioning lifecycle supersession archival retention","geospatial catalog current superseded archived status search filter product lifecycle","dataset deprecation users continued use obsolete version research","ArcGIS item deprecated superseded replacement link metadata official"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC7"],"no_result_note":null},"historical_terminology":{"queries":["geospatial dataset lifecycle status superseded retired deprecated metadata standard version relation","geospatial data retention schedule superseded obsolete maps archive legal hold records","superseded obsolete retired deprecated deaccession geospatial records maps","geologic map earlier edition obsolete superseded archive"],"source_ids":["SRC2","SRC6","SRC7"],"no_result_note":null},"products_practices_standards":{"queries":["ISO 19115 superseded dataset metadata version status retired geospatial","DataCite metadata IsNewVersionOf IsPreviousVersionOf version relation official","geospatial data lifecycle status current version replaces standard DCAT","ArcGIS authoritative deprecated item deletion protection"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC3","SRC4","SRC5","SRC6"],"no_result_note":null},"non_english_regional":{"queries":["site:admin.ch Gefahrenkarte nachführen aktualisieren archiv alte Gefahrenkarten","site:georisques.gouv.fr carte aléa version historique mise à jour archive","mapas de peligros geológicos versión vigente reemplaza anterior archivo","site:govt.nz hazard maps superseded archived current version GIS"],"source_ids":["SRC8"],"no_result_note":"Spanish-language regional searching identified an official Peruvian geological-hazard inventory used for infrastructure and land-use decisions, but it did not document explicit supersession, retention, or deletion states. German, French, and New Zealand queries found no closer retained lifecycle analogue."},"composition_subproblems":{"queries":["geospatial dataset supersession link dependency check legal hold archive deletion audit","dataset lifecycle status current replaces version notes citation dependency metadata","obsolete GIS layer deletion protection replacement link archive restore","hazard map current preliminary historic records retention superseded obsolete"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC3","SRC4","SRC5","SRC6","SRC7"],"no_result_note":null}},"sources":[{"source_id":"SRC1","title":"FEMA Map Service Center: Search All Products","url":"https://emilms.fema.gov/is_0273/groups/173.html","publisher":"Federal Emergency Management Agency","date_or_year":"Undated; accessed 2026-08-04","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","language":"English","claims_supported":["FEMA's default address search returns the current effective flood map, while Search All Products exposes current, preliminary, pending, and historic products.","Preliminary maps cannot produce an official FIRMette because they are not yet effective.","Community officials are identifiable operational users of the retained historical and current map collection."]},{"source_id":"SRC2","title":"BGS Geology","url":"https://www.bgs.ac.uk/datasets/bgs-geology/","publisher":"British Geological Survey","date_or_year":"Undated; accessed 2026-08-04","source_type":"FIRST_PARTY_PRODUCT","language":"English","claims_supported":["BGS states that its digital mapping is the latest interpretation and that archived paper maps are superseded.","BGS retains superseded scans for legacy use and historical comparison while directing professional users to current digital data.","This is an earth-science example of separating operational authority from preserved historical products."]},{"source_id":"SRC3","title":"Configure item details and settings","url":"https://doc.esri.com/en/arcgis-enterprise/latest/share/configure-item-details.html","publisher":"Esri","date_or_year":"Current ArcGIS Enterprise documentation; accessed 2026-08-04","source_type":"FIRST_PARTY_PRODUCT","language":"English","claims_supported":["ArcGIS Enterprise supports authoritative and deprecated content states visible to users.","Owners or administrators can mark outdated items deprecated and allow time to find replacements.","ArcGIS supports deletion protection and requires it to be disabled before protected content can be deleted."]},{"source_id":"SRC4","title":"Versioning","url":"https://support.datacite.org/docs/versioning","publisher":"DataCite","date_or_year":"Updated 2025","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","language":"English","claims_supported":["DataCite recommends explicit version metadata and separate identifiers for major versions.","IsNewVersionOf and IsPreviousVersionOf provide machine-readable supersession links.","A canonical identifier can represent a group of separately identified versions."]},{"source_id":"SRC5","title":"DCAT-US 3.0 Dataset","url":"https://resources.data.gov/standards/catalog/dcat-us-3/dataset/","publisher":"U.S. General Services Administration, resources.data.gov","date_or_year":"DCAT-US 3.0; accessed 2026-08-04","source_type":"OFFICIAL_STANDARD","language":"English","claims_supported":["DCAT-US defines optional dataset lifecycle status values such as deprecated, withdrawn, completed, and under development.","It provides fields for current version, versions, replacements, version notes, citations, provenance activities, and quality measurements.","The standard supplies many metadata primitives needed by the proposal but does not require the proposed governance workflow."]},{"source_id":"SRC6","title":"Frequently Asked Questions about GRS 5.3, Continuity and Emergency Planning Records","url":"https://www.archives.gov/records-mgmt/grs/faqs-for-grs-5-3","publisher":"U.S. National Archives and Records Administration","date_or_year":"2024","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","language":"English","claims_supported":["Records retention may be triggered by an event such as a record becoming superseded or obsolete.","An approved schedule can require retaining records for a defined period after supersession before destruction.","Records officers and retention schedules are relevant authorizers for disposition decisions."]},{"source_id":"SRC7","title":"A Framework for Deprecating Datasets: Standardizing Documentation, Identification, and Communication","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.04424","publisher":"Authors; arXiv","date_or_year":"2021","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","language":"English","claims_supported":["Deprecated datasets can continue circulating and being cited after deprecation.","The studied cases exhibited inconsistent deprecation practices and communication.","The authors propose risk assessment, impact mitigation, timelines, post-deprecation protocols, publication checks, archival tracking, and modification tracking."]},{"source_id":"SRC8","title":"Consultar las zonas críticas y peligros geológicos en el territorio peruano","url":"https://www.gob.pe/15516-consultar-los-peligros-geologicos-en-el-territorio-peruano","publisher":"Instituto Geológico, Minero y Metalúrgico, Government of Peru","date_or_year":"Updated 2026-07-16","source_type":"FIRST_PARTY_PRODUCT","language":"Spanish","claims_supported":["INGEMMET operates a national platform containing geological-hazard occurrences, critical zones, reports, and susceptibility maps.","The platform supports disaster-risk management and decisions concerning roads, bridges, and urban development.","A geological survey and downstream planning users are identifiable adopters, although the page does not document product lifecycle states."]}],"problem_evidence":{"status":"PARTLY_SUPPORTED","finding":"Successive and historical earth-science hazard products demonstrably coexist: FEMA exposes effective, preliminary, pending, and historic flood products, while BGS preserves superseded maps but explicitly limits them to legacy and historical-comparison uses. Research outside the hazard domain documents continued circulation of deprecated datasets. These sources support the underlying stale-product mechanism and its potential relevance, but none directly demonstrates a hazard catalog that fails to distinguish lifecycle states or a documented operational decision made from a mistakenly selected obsolete release.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC7","SRC8"],"uncertainty":"The frequency of missing status metadata, obsolete-release selection, copied-file bypass, and resulting operational harm remains unmeasured. FEMA and BGS are counterexamples showing that explicit distinctions are already feasible and used in parts of the domain."},"adopter_evidence":{"status":"SUPPORTED","finding":"Identifiable adopters and authorizers exist: geological-survey and hazard-platform operators maintain the products; FEMA community officials, BGS professional users, and Peruvian infrastructure and land-use users consume them; ArcGIS organization administrators control authoritative and deprecated status; records officers administer disposition schedules.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC6","SRC8"],"uncertainty":"The precise division of authority among scientific product owners, records officers, and emergency-management authorities must be confirmed for each pilot catalog."},"implementation_evidence":{"status":"PARTLY_SUPPORTED","finding":"Most technical primitives already exist: authoritative/deprecated badges and deletion protection in ArcGIS, machine-readable version relations in DataCite, lifecycle/current-version/replacement fields in DCAT-US, and event-based retention after supersession in records guidance. FEMA and BGS demonstrate operational-versus-historical presentation. No retained source demonstrates the full integrated package of hazard-specific adjudication, dependency discovery, legal holds, misuse scoring, impact estimates, rollback, and periodic revalidation.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4","SRC5","SRC6","SRC7"],"uncertainty":"Integration cost, metadata completeness, dependency discoverability, steward agreement, search-default behavior, and performance across copied files or external mirrors remain untested."},"prior_art":{"disposition":"ADJACENT_PRIOR_ART","closest_analogues":[{"name":"FEMA Map Service Center effective/preliminary/pending/historic product states","source_ids":["SRC1"],"same_problem":true,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"Multiple releases remain accessible while a current-effective default and explicit product categories distinguish operational authority from historical or not-yet-effective material.","remaining_difference":"The retained evidence does not show dependency and citation checks, preservation-exception review, legal-hold integration, impact estimation, rollback, orphan detection, or a measured comparison against a canonical-latest-pointer rival."},{"name":"ArcGIS Enterprise authoritative/deprecated status and deletion protection","source_ids":["SRC3"],"same_problem":false,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"Administrators can identify authoritative content, warn users about outdated items, preserve a migration period, and protect dependent or important items from accidental deletion.","remaining_difference":"It is a general GIS content-management capability rather than a hazard-product governance protocol; it does not establish scientific authority aging, retention matrices, dependency completeness, revalidation triggers, or safety-performance thresholds."},{"name":"BGS current digital geology versus superseded legacy-map archive","source_ids":["SRC2"],"same_problem":false,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"Current operational guidance is separated from preserved superseded maps, which remain available for legacy and historical-interpretation purposes.","remaining_difference":"The example concerns general geological mapping rather than successive hazard layers and does not evidence legal holds, deletion workflows, machine-readable replacement chains, dependency checks, or controlled rollback."},{"name":"Dataset deprecation framework","source_ids":["SRC7"],"same_problem":false,"same_causal_lever":true,"overlap":"It combines risk and impact considerations, deprecation communication, timelines, archival tracking, and post-deprecation checks to address continued circulation.","remaining_difference":"It targets machine-learning datasets, not hazard-map scientific authority, emergency-use visibility, records-law controls, or comparative user-selection performance."}],"contrastive_claim_remaining":"For a mixed earth-science hazard catalog, adding steward-adjudicated lifecycle states, machine-readable supersession links, dependency and hold checks, and lifecycle-aware search visibility will reduce obsolete-release selection relative to a canonical latest-version pointer, without incorrectly demoting more than 2% of steward-confirmed current or dependency-critical layers.","contrastive_claim_falsifier":"The incremental claim is falsified if an audit shows that the target catalog already has complete authoritative-status, supersession, dependency, hold, and retention metadata with no stale selections, or if blinded sandbox tasks show no reduction in obsolete-release selection versus the latest-pointer rival, or more than 2% false demotion of current or dependency-critical layers.","confidence":"HIGH","search_limitations":"The bounded search covered six adversarial lanes and eight opened sources from independent government, standards, product, research, and regional publishers. It did not inspect proprietary catalogs, internal metadata quality, external mirrors, downstream copied files, implementation contracts, or every jurisdiction and language. It cannot establish world novelty, patentability, freedom to operate, market size, routine adoption across all hazard classes, or realized impact."},"researchability_gates":{"externally_supported_problem":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"Public sources establish that current, preliminary, historic, and superseded earth-science maps coexist and require explicit usage guidance; primary research establishes that deprecated datasets can continue circulating. The specific prevalence and harm hypothesis remains suitable for measurement rather than being assumed true.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC7"]},"identifiable_adopter_or_authorizer":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"Geological-survey platform owners, hazard data stewards, GIS organization administrators, community officials, professional map users, planners, and records officers are identifiable actors with relevant operational or disposition authority.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC6","SRC8"]},"distinct_testable_incremental_claim":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"Existing practice covers statuses, version links, current defaults, archival access, and deletion protection separately, but the proposed hazard-specific governed bundle retains a falsifiable comparison against the latest-pointer rival with explicit selection-error and false-demotion outcomes.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC3","SRC4","SRC5","SRC7"]},"bounded_next_evidence_step":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"A preregistered 30-day read-only pilot on one region and hazard family can adjudicate 50 releases and run blinded sandbox selection tasks without altering production data, warnings, or access.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC3","SRC5"]},"no_unresolved_safety_or_authority_stop":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"A read-only, steward-adjudicated sandbox does not require production deletion or changes to hazard boundaries. Existing sources show that scientific/current status, administrator-controlled content status, and records disposition are separable authority functions. Production deployment would still require local approvals.","source_ids":["SRC2","SRC3","SRC6"]},"adequate_search_evidence":{"status":"PASS","rationale":"All six required lanes were searched adversarially using direct, older, standards/product, regional/non-English, and component-combination terminology. Exactly eight opened direct sources include multiple independent publishers and more than two primary, official, standards, or first-party sources.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4","SRC5","SRC6","SRC7","SRC8"]}},"strict_success":true,"screen_survival":true,"remaining_research_value":"HIGH","recommended_next_step":"Preregister and run the proposed 30-day read-only pilot. Sample 50 releases from one region and hazard family; have product stewards and a records officer independently label authority, supersession, dependencies, holds, and retention state; resolve disagreements before testing; then randomize blinded users between lifecycle-aware presentation and the canonical-latest-pointer rival. Measure obsolete-release selection, task time, false demotion of current or dependency-critical layers, provenance reconstruction, and adjudicator disagreement, applying the stated halt thresholds.","world_novelty_boundary":"The surviving claim is only a testable incremental claim over documented adjacent practices: integrating lifecycle status, supersession, dependency and hold checks, and search visibility for hazard-map releases and evaluating it against a latest-pointer rival. This bounded public search does not establish that the package is novel worldwide, patentable, free to operate, commercially valuable, broadly adopted, or impactful in production."}