{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp12_substrate_denial72_20260805","cell_id":"prediction_error_learning_calibration__accounting_auditing","arm":"CONSTRAINED_HIGH","candidate_id":"prediction_error_learning_calibration__accounting_auditing__CONSTRAINED_HIGH","decision":"PROPOSAL","abstention_reason":null,"proposal":{"schema_version":1,"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp12_substrate_denial72_20260805","cell_id":"prediction_error_learning_calibration__accounting_auditing","arm":"CONSTRAINED_HIGH","candidate_id":"prediction_error_learning_calibration__accounting_auditing__CONSTRAINED_HIGH","proposal_index":1,"version":0,"title":"Mechanical Tare-Error Learning Scale for Reusable-Container Inventory","problem":"Reusable containers such as kegs or cylinders are often converted from aggregate weight to accounting quantity using a fixed expected empty-container tare. Residue, repairs, corrosion, and component replacement can shift actual tare. A static tare can therefore create recurring discrepancies between recorded container quantities and physical stock even when the weighing arithmetic is correct.","actors":["Inventory custodian","Internal auditor or metrology technician","Reusable containers","Mechanical balance and tare-adjustment assembly","Recorded container inventory"],"observable_state":"For each empty container placed on the balance, a pointer shows the signed difference between its measured tare and the expected tare physically set on the comparator. A separate mechanical collar shows the bounded tare correction accumulated from repeated observations.","consequence":"If actual tare systematically differs from expected tare, weight-to-count conversion misstates physical container quantity and weakens reconciliation of the related inventory asset; reacting fully to isolated containers can instead make the conversion unstable.","affected_objective":"Maintain a physically calibrated weight-to-count basis for reusable-container inventory reconciliation without allowing either a stale nominal tare or a single anomalous container to dominate the estimate.","intervention":"Install a non-electronic balance with an expected-tare counterweight, a center-zero signed-error pointer, a deadband, and a reversible ratchet-and-dashpot integrator. Each sampled empty container supplies a physical outcome. Pointer displacement above the deadband advances or retreats the tare collar by a small bounded increment; near-zero displacement produces no update. The dashpot limits response to shocks, and mechanical end stops bound total adjustment. The collar directly changes the tare reference used by the companion mechanical inventory scale, so repeated reliable signed deviations physically recalibrate subsequent weight-to-count measurements without software, analytics, reporting, incentives, or automatic accounting entries.","structural_mapping":[{"archetype_element":"Prior Prediction Record","domain_realization":"The expected empty-container tare is encoded before weighing as the comparator's counterweight position."},{"archetype_element":"Value Reference Frame","domain_realization":"The measured variable is empty-container mass in a fixed container class, with fixtures and removable contents excluded."},{"archetype_element":"Received Outcome Record","domain_realization":"The balance beam's equilibrium position physically represents the sampled container's measured tare."},{"archetype_element":"Signed Error Signal","domain_realization":"Center-zero pointer displacement distinguishes heavier-than-expected from lighter-than-expected tare."},{"archetype_element":"Credit Assignment Window","domain_realization":"Only an identified empty container of the selected class can engage the integrator while resting on the fixture."},{"archetype_element":"Noise and Volatility Filter","domain_realization":"A pointer deadband suppresses small deviations, while a dashpot and ratchet step limit suppress shock and single-sample movement."},{"archetype_element":"Learning Gain Rule","domain_realization":"Each qualifying displacement moves the correction collar by one small mechanical increment, subject to end stops."},{"archetype_element":"Update Target","domain_realization":"The physical tare-reference collar used in later aggregate-weight conversion is adjusted."},{"archetype_element":"Positive/Negative Error Separation","domain_realization":"Opposite pointer directions drive separate forward and reverse ratchet pawls."},{"archetype_element":"Prediction History Memory","domain_realization":"The collar position mechanically retains the net bounded accumulation of prior signed deviations."},{"archetype_element":"Shortcut Learning Guard","domain_realization":"A keyed fixture admits only the designated empty-container class, preventing full, partially full, or incompatible containers from driving calibration."}],"mechanism_mapping":[{"mechanism_slug":"prediction_outcome_delta_log","role":"A center-zero balance physically computes expected tare minus measured tare as pointer direction and displacement, without a digital log.","counterfactual_removal":"Without the physical delta comparator, the device would observe raw mass but could not distinguish an expected outcome from a signed prediction error."},{"mechanism_slug":"learning_rate_schedule","role":"Fixed ratchet pitch, pointer deadband, dashpot resistance, and end stops implement a small bounded mechanical learning gain.","counterfactual_removal":"Without gain limitation, one damaged, wet, or contaminated container could shift the tare reference substantially."},{"mechanism_slug":"credit_assignment_trace","role":"The keyed empty-container fixture restricts each update to the relevant container class and measurement condition.","counterfactual_removal":"Without the fixture constraint, errors from contents, attachments, or another container class could be misassigned to tare drift."},{"mechanism_slug":"negative_prediction_error_review","role":"Lighter-than-expected containers actuate a dedicated reverse pawl, preserving the negative sign rather than collapsing all deviations into magnitude.","counterfactual_removal":"Without the reverse path, lighter and heavier deviations would be conflated or learning would be one-sided."},{"mechanism_slug":"positive_surprise_capture","role":"Heavier-than-expected containers actuate the forward pawl and contribute a bounded positive correction.","counterfactual_removal":"Without the forward path, systematic upward tare drift would not update the physical reference."}],"causal_chain":["A fixed expected tare becomes inaccurate when the material state of reusable containers changes.","An empty sampled container loads a balance opposed by a counterweight encoding the prior expected tare.","The balance produces a signed physical displacement proportional to the prediction–outcome difference.","The deadband and dashpot reject small variation and transient shock.","A qualifying displacement engages the direction-specific ratchet for one bounded increment.","Repeated same-sign deviations accumulate as movement of the mechanical tare collar, while mixed deviations partially cancel.","The collar directly changes the tare reference used in subsequent mechanical weight-to-count measurements.","A better-matched tare reference reduces the portion of inventory reconciliation error attributable to systematic tare miscalibration."],"baseline":"Use one fixed nominal tare for the container class until a periodic manual recalibration or full physical count reveals a discrepancy.","nearest_rivals":["Perform periodic item-by-item physical counts instead of converting aggregate weight to quantity.","Manually weigh a sample and have an auditor calculate and approve a revised tare.","Use a load cell connected to software that estimates tare and updates inventory records.","Assign each container its own permanently marked tare and sum individual values.","Replace or clean containers when tare variation exceeds an engineering tolerance."],"remaining_contrastive_claim":"Compared with a static tare or raw sample mean, the proposed instrument uniquely tests whether a bounded, physically accumulated signed-error correction can keep the measurement reference responsive to persistent tare drift while limiting response to individual anomalous containers. It does not claim superiority to individual counting, individualized tare marking, or electronic calibration.","authority_safety":{"decision_authority":"The facility controller and metrology lead jointly decide whether a bench-tested instrument may inform inventory measurement; accounting-entry authority remains separate.","authorized_first_step":"Bench-test one reversible comparator on inert test weights and a quarantined set of empty containers, comparing its collar movement and resulting tare estimate with blinded reference weighings; do not connect it to the production scale or ledger.","excluded_actions":["Automatic journal entries","Changes to certified trade scales","Disposal, detention, or blame decisions based on pointer movement","Testing pressurized, filled, hazardous, or customer-owned containers","Adjustment beyond mechanical end stops","Combining materially different container classes"],"halt_rollback":"Stop if the pointer sticks, direction reverses incorrectly, fixture identity is ambiguous, reference weights fail verification, or successive known weights produce inconsistent increments. Disengage the ratchet and return the indexed collar to its documented starting position."},"negative_tests":{"strongest_counterevidence":"Blinded reference weighing shows that within-class tare variation is mostly container-specific and nonpersistent, so accumulated signed errors do not predict the appropriate tare for later containers.","problem_falsifier":"A direct physical count reconciles with the ledger while the weight-derived discrepancy disappears after correcting another factor such as residual contents, scale zero error, or container-class mixing; then tare drift is not the relevant problem.","intervention_falsifier":"Under repeated known signed offsets, the mechanical collar fails to move in the correct direction and bounded increments, or its adjusted tare yields worse blinded weight-to-count estimates than the fixed-tare baseline.","risks":["Residue or moisture may be misclassified as structural tare drift.","A keyed fixture may still admit materially heterogeneous containers.","Mechanical friction, hysteresis, or wear may bias updates by direction.","Slow gain may lag real abrupt changes; high gain may chase anomalies.","Operators could intentionally select containers that push the collar toward a desired inventory result.","Use of aggregate weight can conceal missing or substituted individual containers.","An incorrect tare reference could propagate measurement error into financial records if adopted without independent reconciliation."]},"next_evidence_step":"Using only inert calibrated weights and quarantined empty containers, run a bounded sequence containing predeclared positive, negative, near-zero, alternating, and shock disturbances. Record whether pointer sign, deadband behavior, ratchet increments, end stops, reversibility, and blinded final tare estimates behave as mechanically specified. Compare with the unchanged fixed-tare baseline; treat the result only as instrument feasibility evidence.","prior_art_status":"UNSEARCHED","diversity_from_prior_proposals":"Not assessed against other experiment candidates because runtime isolation prohibits inspecting them; the candidate is derived solely from the supplied archetype and domain card.","revision_record":{"parent_version":null,"progress_targets_addressed":["Construct one causally defensible accounting-and-auditing candidate whose primary effect is measurement instrumentation.","Preserve prior prediction, signed outcome error, filtering, bounded gain, credit assignment, and physical update memory.","Specify counterfactual independence from software and governance wrappers.","Bound initial evidence collection and prevent automatic financial-record changes."],"conceptual_changes":["Translated prediction-error learning into physical tare calibration for reusable-container inventory."],"operational_changes":["Specified a center-zero balance, keyed fixture, deadband, dashpot, direction-specific ratchets, reversible correction collar, and end stops."],"evidence_changes":["Defined blinded bench tests using inert reference weights and quarantined containers."],"claim_changes":["Limited the claim to feasibility of bounded mechanical signed-error calibration and made no novelty, prevalence, demand, or effect-size claim."]},"substrate_contract":{"primary_allowed_process":"MEASUREMENT_INSTRUMENTATION","counterfactual_independence":"If all software, algorithmic inference, dashboards, reporting, incentives, authorization workflows, and procedural enforcement are removed, opposing gravitational forces still produce the signed error, the deadband and dashpot still filter it, the direction-specific ratchet still accumulates bounded corrections, and the collar still changes the physical tare reference used by the mechanical scale. Human loading and initial setting are ordinary instrument operation, but no downstream analysis or mandated response is required for the comparator to generate and retain its essential calibration effect.","forbidden_channel_audit":"The proposal contains no software, database, model, electronic control loop, recommender, dashboard, incentive, training program, or automatic ledger posting. Governance only limits deployment and financial use; it does not generate the measurement or correction. The physical sensor is not merely a reporting source: balance displacement directly actuates the bounded mechanical memory that resets the measurement reference. Accounting records may supply the initial expected tare and may later consume measurements, but neither information routing nor human enforcement performs the core signed comparison, filtering, integration, or calibration."}}}