{"closest_prior_art":[{"name":"Orreco/Barça Drill Planner","overlap":"Predicts individualized workload metrics for a planned session before training from historical GPS-annotated drills; models drill count, duration, recovery, combinations, maximum velocity and high-intensity running; reports uncertainty; supports last-minute modification and individualized load adjustment; and updates as additional data arrive. The commercial implementation adds readiness-related context and is used to inform participation or session changes.","remaining_difference":"The retained material does not show a sprint-block-specific, recorded commitment gate before the first high-speed repetition, preset threshold-to-action rules, predicted repetition-by-repetition velocity loss, athlete stop-right handling, or formal calibration-drift demotion.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2"]},{"name":"Pre-training individualized sRPE decision-support model","overlap":"Predicts group and individual training load before a planned session using prescription, athlete characteristics and weather, lets the coach iteratively adapt the plan to reach the intended load, and compares predicted with reported post-session exertion.","remaining_difference":"It predicts broad internal load rather than the proposed sprint-specific exposure and velocity-loss trajectory, and does not document uncertainty gating, bounded action rules, a mandatory recorded decision, or model demotion for directional error.","source_ids":["SRC3"]},{"name":"IOC load-management consensus practice","overlap":"Establishes individualized prescription and monitoring of sport load, performance, well-being, symptoms and injury as recognized athlete-management practices, while warning that load response varies within and between athletes.","remaining_difference":"It provides load-management guidance rather than a prescription-level what-if model, thresholded pre-correction rule, commitment gate or forecast backtest.","source_ids":["SRC4"]}],"contrastive_claim_falsifier":"The contrast is falsified by documentation predating or independent of this proposal that a deployed system forecasts peak speed, high-speed distance and velocity-loss consequences of the intended sprint prescription with uncertainty before the first committed repetition, maps threshold crossings to bounded volume, speed, recovery, order or timing changes, records an accountable coach decision, and backtests forecast-versus-realized traces for calibration or model demotion.","contrastive_claim_remaining":"A narrower, testable distinction remains: sprint-block-specific outcome forecasts, including repetition-level velocity-loss uncertainty, are coupled to preset bounded adjustments and an auditable coach commitment gate before the first high-speed repetition, with explicit forecast-error drift checks afterward. The broader predict-before-training-and-modify structure is already disclosed and commercialized.","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","gates":{"adequate_source_search":{"rationale":"The bounded search covered the proposal directly, older training-load and sRPE terminology, a first-party product, consensus guidance, and combinations involving session planning, GPS workload prediction, readiness context, uncertainty and adjustment. Four opened sources span four publishers and include primary research, first-party product information and IOC guidance.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4"],"status":"PASS"},"bounded_next_test":{"rationale":"A silent chronological replay is feasible because SRC1 and SRC3 demonstrate retrospective session-level model construction and out-of-sample or cross-validated evaluation. Preregistering timestamps, baseline rules, uncertainty gates, calibration, envelope classification and actionability keeps the test bounded and non-decision-making.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC3"],"status":"PASS"},"distinct_testable_claim":{"rationale":"Although the broad intervention substantially collides with prior art, the remaining sprint-specific gate-and-calibration distinction has observable inputs, outputs, timestamps, decisions and falsification conditions that can be compared with the disclosed planners.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3"],"status":"PASS"},"no_obvious_safety_or_authority_stop":{"rationale":"The proposed first step is retrospective, de-identified and does not change training. Its coach, athlete and clinician authority constraints are compatible with IOC emphasis on individualized load management and monitoring of symptoms and well-being. Prospective use would still require clinical, privacy and model-governance review.","source_ids":["SRC4"],"status":"PASS"},"supported_problem":{"rationale":"SRC1 and SRC2 directly describe the prevailing post-session GPS review problem and the value of predicting planned workload before training; SRC2 states that post-session reporting can be too late and describes inappropriate mechanical load. SRC4 supports the broader importance of individualized load management. The exact claim that mismatch becomes materially harder to undo after the first maximal repetition was not directly quantified, so support is partial.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC4"],"status":"PASS"}},"prior_art_disposition":"SUBSTANTIAL_COLLISION","problem_evidence":{"finding":"The pre-session workload-mismatch problem is visible: existing sources describe coaches receiving GPS workload information after completion, imperfect awareness of a planned session's physical load, and systems created to predict that load before training so the prescription can be changed. Evidence is less direct for the proposal's precise first-high-speed-repetition commitment boundary and cumulative velocity-loss consequence.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC4"],"status":"PARTLY_SUPPORTED"},"research_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_light_screen_20260806","schema_version":1,"screen_id":"E13P061","screen_survival":false,"search_lanes":{"component_combination":{"no_result_note":"No retained source documented the complete combination of sprint-specific consequence outputs, uncertainty thresholding, a mandatory recorded pre-sprint gate, bounded adjustment rules and forecast-drift demotion.","queries":["planned sprint session high-speed distance maximum velocity workload prediction uncertainty","training drill planner GPS predicted load coach alter session","pre-training readiness weather workload prediction individualized athlete","velocity-loss sprint autoregulation repetitions recovery session"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3"]},"direct_problem_and_intervention":{"no_result_note":null,"queries":["sports sprint training session predictive model planned prescription high-speed running workload forecast GPS pre session","athlete training prescription decision support predict session workload before training readiness GPS","football training session planner predict high speed distance number accelerations before session"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3"]},"products_practices_and_standards":{"no_result_note":null,"queries":["sports Drill Planner predicted training load uncertainty coach alter session","site:catapult.com predict training session load before session GPS planning","IOC consensus athlete load monitoring prescription training injury risk limitations individualized","site:kitmanlabs.com drill planner predicted load training session"],"source_ids":["SRC2","SRC4"]},"synonyms_and_historical_terms":{"no_result_note":null,"queries":["Enabling Training Personalization predicting session RPE full paper","Predicting and Individualising Training Load historical GPS data elite soccer","training load prediction prior to prescribed session coach decision support","exercise dose load management pre-session monitoring autoregulation"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC3","SRC4"]}},"sources":[{"claims_supported":["Historical GPS drill data were used to predict individualized workload before a planned session.","The model included drill count, duration, rest, player effects, maximum velocity and high-intensity running, with uncertainty estimates.","The planner supported prescription changes, audit of similar prior sessions, out-of-sample evaluation and updating with additional data."],"publisher":"Sports Tomorrow Congress / Barça Innovation Hub","source_id":"SRC1","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","title":"Predicting and Individualising Training Load using historical GPS data in Elite Soccer","url":"https://sportstomorrow.fcbarcelona.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Predicting_and_Individualizing_Training_Load_using_historical_GPS_data_in_Elite_Soccer_Newell.pdf"},{"claims_supported":["Orreco offers Drill Planner as a module in its Te@m professional-sports platform.","It predicts prescribed-session workload before training and can prompt changes to drill choice, duration and number.","The product description combines planner output with sleep, jump, movement, biomarker and other context and reports use by multiple soccer teams."],"publisher":"Orreco","source_id":"SRC2","source_type":"FIRST_PARTY_PRODUCT","title":"Predicting the training load of team sport practice sessions","url":"https://www.orreco.ai/blog-posts/predicting-the-training-load-of-team-sport-practice-sessions-edf3d"},{"claims_supported":["A decision-support design predicted group and athlete-specific sRPE before training from the plan, individual characteristics and weather.","The coach could adapt the planned session until predicted load matched the intended load.","The study evaluated pre-training predictions and proposed comparison with during- or post-training observations."],"publisher":"CEUR Workshop Proceedings","source_id":"SRC3","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","title":"Enabling Training Personalization by Predicting the Session Rate of Perceived Exertion (sRPE)","url":"https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-1971/paper-05.pdf"},{"claims_supported":["Poor load management is recognized as an injury risk factor.","Training response and recovery vary within and between athletes, precluding a one-size-fits-all program.","The IOC consensus recommends prescription and monitoring of training load alongside performance, well-being, symptoms and injury."],"publisher":"International Olympic Committee / British Journal of Sports Medicine","source_id":"SRC4","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","title":"How much is too much? (Part 1): International Olympic Committee consensus statement on load in sport and risk of injury","url":"https://ostrc.no/globalassets/publications/soligard_2016_bjsm_how-much-is-too-much.-ioc-consensus-statement-on-load-in-sport-and-risk-of-injury.pdf"}],"world_novelty_boundary":"This coarse public-web screen found substantial structural prior art but did not exhaust patents, non-indexed products, proprietary team workflows, other languages or historical archives. It cannot establish world novelty, patentability, market size, expert acceptance or realized value."}