{"closest_prior_art":[{"name":"Performance and healthcare team processes and structure impact player availability in professional men’s football","overlap":"A season-long first-team case study links player availability to performance-and-healthcare team structure, communication, meetings, audits, resources, match congestion, interprofessional work, and coaching overrides. It directly supports treating availability and injury outcomes as products of distributed processes conditioned by organizational context.","remaining_difference":"It studies associations and practitioner accounts rather than reconstructing hamstring-specific action-to-state chains across two seasons, separating a named leader from the office, or testing both occupant substitution and structural-relaxation counterfactuals.","source_ids":["SRC3"]},{"name":"Survey of organizational structure and operational practices of elite football medical and performance departments","overlap":"Documents shared injury-prevention and return-to-play decisions, phase-dependent influence of different practitioners, formal reviews, centralized monitoring data, head-of-performance involvement, and fixture congestion, communication, and time constraints.","remaining_difference":"It describes prevailing structures and practices but does not perform causal attribution to a focal leader, audit leader-centered evidence visibility, or use actor-substitution and structural counterfactual probes.","source_ids":["SRC2"]},{"name":"Magenta Book supplementary guide for evaluating complexity","overlap":"Establishes contribution analysis, process tracing, theory-of-change testing, system mapping, contextual mechanisms, alternative explanations, participatory synthesis, and counterfactual or scenario methods as an existing evaluation toolkit for complex outcomes.","remaining_difference":"It is domain-general guidance and does not specify a two-season football injury review, actor-versus-office substitution, paired athlete/team timelines, medical-governance boundaries, or the proposed combination as one protocol.","source_ids":["SRC4"]},{"name":"Football-specific extension of the IOC injury-surveillance consensus statement","overlap":"Provides standardized football injury, time-loss, burden, exposure, severity, and return-to-football definitions needed to freeze the proposed outcome and comparison window.","remaining_difference":"It standardizes epidemiological recording and reporting rather than attributing an observed burden change to decisions, distributed implementation, or organizational constraints.","source_ids":["SRC1"]}],"contrastive_claim_falsifier":"The distinction would be falsified by finding an established football review method that already reconstructs leader-specific signal-to-decision-to-exposure-to-clinical-state chains and tests both a plausible alternate occupant and bounded changes to schedule, resources, information, or authority while retaining distributed implementation. It would also fail empirically if blinded coding or ablation showed that these probes do not reproducibly change the attribution synthesis.","contrastive_claim_remaining":"Compared with injury surveillance, workload prediction, staff appraisal, team-process research, and generic contribution analysis, the remaining testable claim is that combining record-based multilevel process tracing with both occupant substitution and structural relaxation can distinguish a head of performance's conditional contribution from the office, staff coalition, inherited system, and season context.","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","gates":{"adequate_source_search":{"rationale":"Four lanes covered the proposal directly, football injury and organizational terminology, surveillance standards and monitoring practices, and combinations of contribution analysis, process tracing, team processes, workload, and structural constraints. Four opened sources span four publishers and include consensus, primary research, and official guidance.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4"],"status":"PASS"},"bounded_next_test":{"rationale":"The proposed test is limited to one squad, two completed seasons, existing de-identified records, all time-loss hamstring cases plus predeclared matched non-cases, two coders, one substitution probe, and one schedule probe, with explicit completeness, agreement, and discrimination stop criteria. Consensus definitions can stabilize the outcome, while complexity guidance supports mechanism and alternative-explanation testing.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC4"],"status":"PASS"},"distinct_testable_claim":{"rationale":"Adjacent work covers standardized injury burden, distributed team processes, contextual constraints, and generic contribution/process-tracing methods, but the retained sources do not combine focal-actor ablation, qualified-occupant substitution, structural relaxation, and multilevel event reconstruction for leader attribution in football.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4"],"status":"PASS"},"no_obvious_safety_or_authority_stop":{"rationale":"A retrospective causal review of existing records has material privacy and employment-misuse risks, but the proposal confines authority to medical governance, requires de-identification and consent for new testimony, leaves clinical and personnel decisions separate, prohibits identifiable publication, and specifies halt and quarantine conditions. No source indicates that the bounded analytic first step is inherently unsafe.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2"],"status":"PASS"},"supported_problem":{"rationale":"Football evidence shows injury prevention and return-to-play are distributed across performance, medical, coaching, and other staff; formal reviews and monitoring systems are common; and communication, fixture congestion, resources, overrides, and team processes affect implementation and player availability. The exact leader-centered presentation is not independently documented, so support is partial rather than complete.","source_ids":["SRC2","SRC3"],"status":"PASS"}},"prior_art_disposition":"ADJACENT_PRIOR_ART","problem_evidence":{"finding":"The general attribution problem is visible: football injury outcomes arise through shared, phase-dependent decisions and are conditioned by communication, match congestion, resources, data systems, and coaching authority. Existing standards define the outcome, but the retained evidence does not establish that the particular club's operative account actually credits a named head of performance or omits the specified counterfactuals.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3"],"status":"PARTLY_SUPPORTED"},"research_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_light_screen_20260806","schema_version":1,"screen_id":"E13P062","screen_survival":true,"search_lanes":{"component_combination":{"no_result_note":null,"queries":["sports injury causal attribution staff decisions process tracing counterfactual","sports performance department injury prevention organizational decision making staff workload monitoring audit","contribution analysis process tracing counterfactual causal package","leadership succession counterfactual replacement organizational performance causal attribution"],"source_ids":["SRC2","SRC3","SRC4"]},"direct_problem_and_intervention":{"no_result_note":"No exact match for the named Conditional Performance Contribution Review or its complete football-specific protocol was located.","queries":["\"hamstring injury\" \"head of performance\" attribution review","football club injury audit workload monitoring decision making hamstring","professional football injury audit medical performance staff review practice standard"],"source_ids":["SRC2","SRC3"]},"products_practices_and_standards":{"no_result_note":null,"queries":["athlete management system injury audit workload monitoring football club product practice","athlete injury surveillance consensus statement time-loss injury burden football","professional football injury audit medical performance staff review practice"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3"]},"synonyms_and_historical_terms":{"no_result_note":"Older and adjacent terms—contribution analysis, generative causation, realist evaluation, process tracing, theory of change, leader succession, and substitutes for leadership—produced components but not the complete proposed combination.","queries":["older terminology contribution analysis causal contribution process tracing organizational leader attribution","realist evaluation contribution analysis actor substitution organizational leadership causal attribution","site:gov.uk contribution analysis causal attribution process tracing counterfactual evaluation guidance"],"source_ids":["SRC4"]}},"sources":[{"claims_supported":["Football-specific consensus definitions exist for injury, time loss, injury burden, exposure, severity, and return to football.","Harmonized definitions and reporting are necessary for valid comparisons across football injury studies."],"publisher":"British Journal of Sports Medicine / PubMed","source_id":"SRC1","source_type":"OFFICIAL_STANDARD","title":"Football-specific extension of the IOC consensus statement: methods for recording and reporting of epidemiological data on injury and illness in sport 2020","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36609352/"},{"claims_supported":["Football injury prevention and return-to-play commonly involve consensus among multiple medical and performance practitioners.","Injury history, training-load management, staff communication, fixture congestion, and time constraints shape prevention practice.","Formal reviews, centralized data systems, injury audits, and head-of-performance-led research activities are existing practices."],"publisher":"Frontiers in Sports and Active Living","source_id":"SRC2","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","title":"A survey of organizational structure and operational practices of elite youth football academies and national federations from around the world: A performance and medical perspective","url":"https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/sports-and-active-living/articles/10.3389/fspor.2022.1031721/full"},{"claims_supported":["Performance-and-healthcare team structures and processes were associated with player availability in a professional football case study.","Match congestion, resources, communication, interprofessional work, audits, and coaching overrides can alter implementation and injury-relevant outcomes.","The study operationalized individual influence, team evaluations, meetings, and organizational context but did not perform focal-leader counterfactual attribution."],"publisher":"BMJ Open Sport & Exercise Medicine","source_id":"SRC3","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","title":"Performance and healthcare team processes and structure impact player availability in professional men’s football","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12278155/"},{"claims_supported":["Contribution analysis and process tracing are established approaches for testing causal chains, mechanisms, contextual conditions, and alternative explanations in complex systems.","System mapping, participatory approaches, configurational analysis, and scenario or counterfactual methods may be combined in complexity-appropriate evaluations.","Process tracing combined with contribution analysis can strengthen inference but requires plausible, well-defined causal chains and can be resource intensive."],"publisher":"HM Treasury / GOV.UK","source_id":"SRC4","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","title":"Supplementary Guide: Handling complexity in policy evaluation","url":"https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-magenta-book/supplementary-guide-handling-complexity-in-policy-evaluation-html"}],"world_novelty_boundary":"This bounded public-web screen found adjacent standards, primary football research, organizational practices, products, and generic causal-evaluation methods, but no exact retained match for the complete protocol. That result cannot establish world novelty, patentability, market size, expert acceptance, realized value, or absence from proprietary club methods, non-indexed literature, patents, theses, or other languages."}