{"closest_prior_art":[{"name":"Measurement Impact Ledger for archival tape transfers","overlap":"Defines a pre-playback decision point with carrier and environmental observations, options considered, structured risk assessment, an impact forecast, chosen intervention, expected and observed impacts, irreversibility, authority documentation, capture-chain metadata, and an example comparing cleaning, single-pass capture, and deferral.","remaining_difference":"It is a documentation and governance proposal, not a validated consequence model that estimates route-specific fidelity and carrier-stress outcomes with uncertainty, compares them with preset tolerances, or backtests prediction errors by carrier and equipment strata.","source_ids":["SRC4"]},{"name":"Rapid Prediction of Polyester Magnetic Tape Playability Using Water Contact Angles","overlap":"Predicts physical playability before deck playback using a carrier-surface measurement, reports testing on 53 tapes, identifies manufacturer-dependent validity limits, and proposes preservation triage based on predicted playability.","remaining_difference":"It predicts one playability condition for a restricted tape population rather than comparing permissible preparation, equipment, operator, and routing scenarios against fidelity and handling envelopes. Its water-contact procedure is also outside the proposal's records-only first test.","source_ids":["SRC2"]},{"name":"IASA-TC 04 signal-extraction guidance","overlap":"Requires condition-appropriate cleaning and replay choices, identifies adjustable equipment and playback parameters, and explains that some signal corrections must occur during original-carrier replay because they cannot be reproduced after transfer.","remaining_difference":"It supplies expert rules and technical targets but not an item-specific, uncertainty-bearing forecast across alternative routes, a thresholded authority gate, or outcome-linked forecast recalibration.","source_ids":["SRC1"]},{"name":"Canadian Conservation Institute audiotape digitization workflow","overlap":"Places carrier-condition evaluation before playback, routes poor-condition items to cleaning or repair, specifies playback and capture-chain practices, and follows digitization with quality control.","remaining_difference":"The workflow is essentially a condition-based decision tree; it does not forecast comparative consequences for multiple permissible routes, estimate uncertainty, or learn from linked forecast errors.","source_ids":["SRC3"]}],"contrastive_claim_falsifier":"In a frozen, blinded retrospective sample, the forecast gate is falsified for the tested setting if it does not improve preregistered route-decision performance over the existing condition matrix plus specialist review, if it increases out-of-envelope fidelity or carrier-condition outcomes, or if its apparent benefit disappears after stratifying by carrier class and documented equipment chain.","contrastive_claim_remaining":"Relative to the adjacent practices found, the remaining claim is that a pre-full-playback, advisory model can use only contemporaneously available pre-playback records and comparable completed jobs to estimate route-specific capture-quality and carrier-stress consequences with uncertainty, compare them with explicit fidelity and handling tolerances, change an available route variable through an accountable authority gate, and subsequently recalibrate or demote itself using linked outcomes.","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","gates":{"adequate_source_search":{"rationale":"Four lanes covered the proposal wording, archival synonyms and older terminology, products/practices/standards, and component combinations. All four retained sources were opened; they span four publishers and include a professional standard, primary research, and government guidance. Exact-phrase misses were not treated as novelty evidence.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4"],"status":"PASS"},"bounded_next_test":{"rationale":"A records-only blinded retrospective comparison is finite and directly measures route errors, calibration, abstention, review time, and outcome reliability. The sources show that condition, equipment, decisions, capture parameters, and post-transfer outcomes can be documented, while the proposed test avoids the physical testing and playback risks they describe.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4"],"status":"PASS"},"distinct_testable_claim":{"rationale":"The claim is distinguishable from the closest documentation ledger, single-condition playability predictor, standards-based expert practice, and deterministic condition workflow. It makes measurable predictions across permissible routes and can be rejected against a specified baseline and outcome envelope.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4"],"status":"PASS"},"no_obvious_safety_or_authority_stop":{"rationale":"The authorized first step uses completed-job records only and entails no handling, water-contact testing, cleaning, baking, shipment, or playback. Blinding, frozen records, abstention boundaries, and retained preservation-authority control address the principal risks visible in the sources. Any later physical application would require separate authorization and validation.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3"],"status":"PASS"},"supported_problem":{"rationale":"The sources establish that playback can damage or contaminate carriers, degraded media can lose signal or become unplayable, condition and replay-chain choices affect capture, and some corrections cannot be reproduced after transfer. They also show pre-playback assessment and later quality control. The asserted absence of structured multi-route forecasting is supported only by contrast with the bounded sources, not by an exhaustive practice survey.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4"],"status":"PASS"}},"prior_art_disposition":"ADJACENT_PRIOR_ART","problem_evidence":{"finding":"The irreversible or difficult-to-repeat playback problem is visible: degraded tape may shed, clog equipment, add noise, or become unplayable; cleaning and replay configuration affect signal retrieval; and some compensation must occur during the original transfer. Existing sources also show condition gates, risk scoring, impact forecasts, and post-transfer observations. The narrower claim that programs generally lack scenario-specific predictive routing remains only partly evidenced by this bounded search.","source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3","SRC4"],"status":"PARTLY_SUPPORTED"},"research_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_light_screen_20260806","schema_version":1,"screen_id":"E13P158","screen_survival":true,"search_lanes":{"component_combination":{"no_result_note":"No retained source combined comparative route simulation, explicit fidelity and carrier-safety thresholds, an authority gate, and stratified forecast-error backtesting.","queries":["\"playback\" \"risk assessment\" audiovisual digitization carrier condition route","machine learning predict audio tape degradation playback digitization archives","\"Rapid Prediction of Polyester Magnetic Tape Playability Using Water Contact Angles\"","\"forecast\" \"playback\" \"carrier\" digitization preservation"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC4"]},"direct_problem_and_intervention":{"no_result_note":"The exact proposal title produced no relevant match; nearby results were assessed structurally rather than treating the phrase miss as novelty evidence.","queries":["\"Predictive Playback-Route Gate\"","\"pre-playback\" \"scenario\" audiovisual digitization forecast","\"capture route\" fragile audiovisual carrier prediction","predictive model playback route fragile audiovisual carrier digitization risk assessment"],"source_ids":["SRC2","SRC4"]},"products_practices_and_standards":{"no_result_note":null,"queries":["IASA TC-04 audiovisual carriers playback equipment condition assessment digitisation","MediaSCORE FACET audiovisual preservation assessment risk prioritization tool","audiovisual preservation fragile media pre-playback assessment equipment selection digitization quality control guidelines","audio video carrier condition assessment playback equipment routing matrix preservation"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC3"]},"synonyms_and_historical_terms":{"no_result_note":null,"queries":["magnetic tape playability triage prior to transfer preservation","signal extraction original carriers replay chain carrier restoration","audiotape reformatting condition evaluation cleaning repair playback workflow","sticky shed pre-playback diagnosis signal retrieval archival transfer"],"source_ids":["SRC1","SRC2","SRC3"]}},"sources":[{"claims_supported":["Condition-specific cleaning and replay-chain selection are established preservation practices.","Replay equipment and parameters materially affect signal retrieval.","Some corrections must be made during original-carrier replay because they cannot be reproduced after transfer."],"publisher":"International Association of Sound and Audiovisual Archives","source_id":"SRC1","source_type":"OFFICIAL_STANDARD","title":"IASA-TC 04: Signal Extraction from Original Carriers","url":"https://www.iasa-web.org/book/export/html/460"},{"claims_supported":["Polyester magnetic-tape degradation can cause noise, shedding, residue, and unplayability.","A pre-playback surface measurement predicted playability in a 53-tape study, with performance varying by manufacturer.","Predictive validity may not transfer unchanged across collections or tape populations."],"publisher":"Audio Engineering Society","source_id":"SRC2","source_type":"PRIMARY_RESEARCH","title":"Rapid Prediction of Polyester Magnetic Tape Playability Using Water Contact Angles","url":"https://www.aes.org/e-lib/download.cfm?ID=20706"},{"claims_supported":["An official workflow evaluates audiotape condition before playback.","Poor-condition carriers are routed to cleaning or repair before digitization.","The workflow links playback and capture with subsequent quality-control assessment."],"publisher":"Government of Canada, Canadian Conservation Institute","source_id":"SRC3","source_type":"OFFICIAL_GUIDANCE","title":"The Digitization of Audio Tapes – Technical Bulletin 30","url":"https://www.canada.ca/en/conservation-institute/services/conservation-preservation-publications/technical-bulletins/digitization-audio-tapes.html"},{"claims_supported":["A publicly described archival ledger records a pre-playback decision, options, structured risk assessment, impact forecast, chosen action, and expected and observed impacts.","Its example compares no cleaning, minimal cleaning, and deferral under a limited safe-playback opportunity.","It proposes append-only provenance linking carrier observations, intervention parameters, capture-chain metadata, authority, and irreversibility."],"publisher":"CyberNative.AI","source_id":"SRC4","source_type":"OTHER","title":"The Measurement Impact Ledger: Why Archival Ethics Are Real (And Why You Should Record the Dirty Transfer)","url":"https://cybernative.ai/t/the-measurement-impact-ledger-why-archival-ethics-are-real-and-why-you-should-record-the-dirty-transfer/30988"}],"world_novelty_boundary":"This bounded public-web screen found adjacent prior art but no retained source implementing the entire claimed combination. It cannot establish world novelty, patentability, market size, expert acceptance, realized value, or the absence of unpublished, proprietary, non-indexed, patent, non-English, or institution-specific systems."}