{"abstention_reason":null,"arm":"SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","candidate_id":"abductive_explanation_selection__library_information_science__SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","cell_id":"abductive_explanation_selection__library_information_science","decision":"PROPOSAL","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","proposal":{"actors":["Collections conservator","Preservation librarian","Archives or special-collections custodian","Facilities representative responsible for the storage environment","Laboratory safety officer when confirmatory sampling is warranted"],"affected_objective":"Identify the best-so-far physical cause of localized odor, corrosion, or discoloration in mixed-format storage early enough to protect nearby holdings without misattributing the damage or applying an unnecessary collection-wide treatment.","arm":"SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","authority_safety":{"authorized_first_step":"The collections conservator may validate a passive witness-coupon cassette in sealed bench chambers containing sacrificial mock materials and then place noncontact cassettes in empty control locations within the storage room.","decision_authority":"The collections conservator authorizes noncontact diagnostic placement and item isolation; facilities staff authorize ventilation changes; destructive sampling, biocide use, disposal, or treatment of collection objects requires the institution's existing conservation and safety approvals.","excluded_actions":["Do not attach indicators directly to collection objects or permit coupon reagents to contact them.","Do not identify mold by odor or indicator response alone, disturb suspected growth, or expose staff without the applicable safety procedure.","Do not apply biocides, neutralizers, coatings, ventilation changes, or collection-wide relocation solely from a provisional explanation.","Do not discard, deaccession, dismantle, or destructively sample an object on the strength of the cassette response.","Do not treat a visual color comparison as a quantitative laboratory result."],"halt_rollback":"Remove and seal the cassettes immediately if any component leaks, sheds, heats, condenses moisture, attracts pests, or contacts a holding. Stop interpretation if controls react comparably to exposed coupons or if the pattern contradicts the working explanation; preserve the observations and reopen the candidate set."},"baseline":"When staff encounter a localized musty or vinegar-like odor, metal tarnish, or edge discoloration in mixed archival storage, they commonly rely on smell, the visibly affected format, a room-level humidity reading, or the first familiar preservation diagnosis. These clues may prompt broad isolation or environmental action even though several material and environmental causes can produce similar symptoms.","candidate_id":"abductive_explanation_selection__library_information_science__SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","causal_chain":["Staff observe a bounded physical anomaly—such as a new odor and edge discoloration concentrated on one shelf—but cannot directly observe its source.","A conservator records the anomaly, affected materials, location, geometry, timing, and existing environmental readings separately from causal interpretations.","Credible explanations are retained, including acetate-film off-gassing, acidic enclosure emissions, episodic moisture with biological activity, externally supplied oxidizing pollutants, and a non-collection room source.","Noncontact passive cassettes containing isolated material-specific witness coupons, together with reference blanks, are placed at several distances and heights around the affected zone.","Airborne chemicals and moisture physically diffuse into the cassettes and produce distinct chemical or material changes in the coupons; spatial gradients and blank responses reveal which traces are local and which are ambient or artifactual.","The observed coupon pattern is compared with each candidate's expected trace coverage, timing, spatial source geometry, mechanism, missing evidence, and high-consequence implications.","A best-so-far explanation is selected only when its predicted multi-coupon and spatial pattern materially exceeds its nearest rival; otherwise the result remains an unresolved ranked set.","The provisional explanation authorizes only a proportionate next measurement, isolation step, or specialist referral, and failed predictions trigger removal of the cassette and revision of the explanation."],"cell_id":"abductive_explanation_selection__library_information_science","consequence":"Prematurely naming the wrong deterioration mechanism can leave the true source active, expose neighboring holdings, waste scarce conservation capacity, or cause treatments and relocations that introduce additional handling risk.","diversity_from_prior_proposals":"P1 explains a digital discovery zero-result event through records, workflow, and controlled query or index probes. This proposal explains a physical preservation anomaly through passive chemical and material witness reactions plus spatial source localization; its problem, intervention, observable evidence, actors, and causal path are materially independent of retrieval failure.","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","intervention":"Deploy a reversible, noncontact preservation witness-coupon array around a bounded storage anomaly. Each ventilated cassette physically isolates several passive indicators—such as acid-responsive cellulose, corrosion-sensitive metal witnesses, moisture-history material, and an oxidant-sensitive strip—from collection objects while admitting room air. Matched blanks and cassettes at different distances and heights create a spatially resolved set of chemical and material traces. A conservator uses those traces to compare competing explanations, retain dangerous rivals, assign a defeasibility label, and choose a confirmatory measurement or low-regret containment step.","mechanism_mapping":[{"counterfactual_removal":"Without physically reactive witness coupons, the intervention loses its new discriminating evidence and collapses into ordinary discussion of the original odor or discoloration.","mechanism_slug":"differential_diagnosis_workup","role":"The multi-material cassette functions as a physical differential workup: different causal environments produce different combinations of acid response, corrosion, oxidant response, and moisture-history traces."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without explicit comparison against predicted coupon combinations and spatial gradients, one positive indicator could be mistaken for proof of the most familiar deterioration mechanism.","mechanism_slug":"inference_to_best_explanation_matrix","role":"Maps each candidate cause to expected indicator responses, source geometry, timing, known affected materials, missing traces, and anomalies, permitting an auditable best-so-far selection or tie."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without reference blanks, replicated positions, and a predeclared rival prediction, handling artifacts or ambient background reactions could self-confirm the favored account.","mechanism_slug":"disconfirming_probe_plan","role":"Uses blanks, replication, and distance-dependent predictions to test whether the leading explanation produces a trace that its nearest rival should not produce."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without a dated record of initial symptoms, cassette positions, exposure duration, readings, confidence, and revision triggers, later deterioration could not reliably update the original explanation.","mechanism_slug":"abduction_log","role":"Preserves the evolution from physical anomaly through witness response, provisional interpretation, confirmatory evidence, and revision."}],"nearest_rivals":["Routine room-level temperature and relative-humidity logging, which measures broad environmental conditions but may miss source-specific chemical emissions and shelf-scale gradients.","Immediate laboratory sampling of a collection object, which can provide stronger identification but may be destructive, expensive, or unjustified before a source is localized.","A visual conservation survey, which documents damage distribution but cannot by itself distinguish chemically similar hidden causes.","HVAC inspection, which tests a facilities hypothesis but does not compare collection-emission, enclosure, moisture, pollutant, and room-source rivals in the affected microenvironment.","Odor-based diagnosis, which is rapid but subjective, exposure-dependent, and insufficient to identify biological or chemical hazards."],"negative_tests":{"intervention_falsifier":"In blinded bench chambers representing the leading candidate environments, the complete cassette-and-gradient procedure fails to distinguish candidates better than blank variation or produces materially inconsistent response patterns across replicates.","problem_falsifier":"Independent examination already identifies one deterministic physical source with a unique trace and no credible rival—for example, a visible leak directly wetting the affected shelf—so abductive selection and a differential witness array are unnecessary.","risks":["Indicator chemicals or coupon substrates could leak, shed, or transfer contaminants if containment fails.","A qualitative color response may be overread as compound-specific or quantitative evidence.","Slow reactions may delay containment of an urgent deterioration process.","Mixed sources may create ambiguous or misleading composite signatures.","Temperature, light, handling, or coupon aging may produce false responses.","Opening or approaching a zone with suspected mold or hazardous off-gassing may expose staff.","A strong spatial gradient may localize a source without uniquely identifying its chemistry.","Staff may allow the apparent objectivity of an instrument to conceal judgment in selecting and interpreting indicators."],"strongest_counterevidence":"If controlled validation shows that the proposed passive indicators respond similarly to acetate emissions, acidic enclosure products, oxidizing pollutants, and moisture-related conditions at concentrations encountered in storage, the array cannot support contrastive explanation selection and should not guide collection action."},"next_evidence_step":"Construct three identical sealed, inert bench chambers for each candidate environment using only sacrificial mock materials, plus matched blanks. Expose coded cassettes for a fixed interval, have a conservator blinded to chamber contents record each physical response, and test whether the predeclared response patterns distinguish the environments reproducibly before any cassette is placed near holdings.","observable_state":"The case record contains direct observations of odor or visible change, affected formats, shelf position, extent, time first observed, and existing temperature or humidity readings. It then records cassette composition, lot, placement geometry, exposure duration, blank condition, and photographed or instrument-read coupon changes. Claims such as “acetate off-gassing” or “moisture-supported biological activity” remain in a separate interpretation field.","prior_art_status":"UNSEARCHED","problem":"Mixed-format library and archival storage can develop a localized odor, corrosion pattern, or discoloration whose hidden physical source is unclear. Degrading acetate media, acidic boards or enclosures, episodic moisture, biological activity, outdoor oxidants, and non-collection room materials may produce overlapping surface symptoms. A familiar smell or visibly affected item can therefore anchor staff on one explanation before source location, competing mechanisms, and disconfirming traces are compared.","proposal_index":2,"remaining_contrastive_claim":"The proposal is specifically a noncontact, multi-material, spatially replicated physical differential that generates new discriminating traces for defeasible explanation selection. It is not a digital monitoring dashboard, a preservation checklist, generic environmental logging, or a governance protocol whose effect survives removal of the witness materials.","revision_record":{"claim_changes":["Initial P2 version; no prior P2 claims revised."],"conceptual_changes":["Instantiates abductive explanation selection around hidden physical causes of localized collection deterioration rather than discovery-system failure.","Makes passive chemical and material measurement the essential intervention substrate."],"evidence_changes":["No external sources or repository materials consulted; prior art remains unsearched."],"operational_changes":["Bounds the first evidence step to blinded bench validation with sacrificial mock materials and blanks.","Requires noncontact containment, spatial replication, explicit safety escalation, and authority limits before use near holdings."],"parent_version":null,"progress_targets_addressed":["Material independence from P1's affected problem, intervention, and causal path","Measurement-instrumentation substrate with a wrapper-removal test","Explicit observation–interpretation separation","Physical discriminating evidence with controls and spatial predictions","Provisional selection, action limits, falsifiers, and revision triggers"]},"schema_version":1,"structural_mapping":[{"archetype_element":"Surprising Observation Record and Explanandum Boundary","domain_realization":"The bounded explanandum is a newly observed, localized odor, corrosion, or discoloration pattern in a defined storage zone—not general collection condition or presumed negligence."},{"archetype_element":"Observation–Interpretation Separation","domain_realization":"Visible changes, geometry, timing, environmental readings, and coupon reactions are observations; source claims such as acetate decay, acidic enclosure emission, pollutant ingress, or biological activity are interpretations."},{"archetype_element":"Candidate Explanation Set","domain_realization":"The set includes the initially favored material source, common environmental and enclosure causes, a non-collection room source, and a lower-probability biological or oxidizing hazard that would change immediate action."},{"archetype_element":"Explanatory Fit Criteria","domain_realization":"Candidates are compared by symptom coverage, coupon-response combination, source-distance gradient, temporal coherence, material mechanism, background plausibility, missing predicted traces, control behavior, and required ad hoc exceptions."},{"archetype_element":"Best-So-Far Explanation or Tie","domain_realization":"One source mechanism is selected only if the multi-indicator and spatial evidence materially outperforms rivals; overlapping patterns are recorded as an unresolved plurality requiring a stronger measurement."},{"archetype_element":"Defeasibility Status Label","domain_realization":"The result is labeled working, contested, action-limited, or unresolved and never described as confirmed solely from passive indicator responses."},{"archetype_element":"Discriminating Evidence Plan","domain_realization":"Matched blanks, replicated cassettes, distance gradients, and candidate-specific response predictions create observations capable of weakening the leading explanation relative to its nearest rival."},{"archetype_element":"Action–Confidence Boundary","domain_realization":"A provisional result may justify noncontact isolation, increased observation, or confirmatory testing, but not destructive sampling, chemical treatment, disposal, or collection-wide environmental change."},{"archetype_element":"Revision Trigger and Explanation Owner","domain_realization":"The collections conservator must reopen the explanation when controls react, replicates disagree, the spatial gradient fails, a predicted indicator remains unchanged, or confirmatory examination supports a rival."}],"substrate_contract":{"counterfactual_independence":"Remove all databases, software, algorithms, automated alerts, scoring models, information-routing systems, training programs, and governance wrappers: the passive coupons still undergo physical or chemical change in response to the local environment, and their positions, blanks, and visible reactions can still be compared manually. That materially generated evidence is the intervention's essential effect.","forbidden_channel_audit":"Documentation, photography, staff coordination, and optional digital readings only preserve or communicate results. No incentive, policy, workflow, software computation, model, database, ranking system, or digital controller causes the indicators to react or creates the spatial source gradient. The authorized action remains limited even if those supports are absent.","primary_allowed_process":"MEASUREMENT_INSTRUMENTATION"},"title":"Spatial Witness-Coupon Differential for Unexplained Collection Deterioration","version":0},"schema_version":1}