{"actors":["Athlete approaching or entering retirement from organized competition","Strength-and-conditioning coach","Sport psychologist or qualified mental-health professional","Sports-medicine clinician","Sport scientist or exercise physiologist","Athlete-support or player-development coordinator"],"affected_objective":"End or reduce elite competition and training obligations while preserving physical health, athlete agency, transferable self-knowledge, longitudinal records, valued relationships, and access to appropriate clinical or psychological support.","arm":"ORDINARY_DIVERSE_P2","authority_safety":{"authorized_first_step":"With participant consent and data-custodian approval, a sport scientist may conduct a retrospective, de-identified reconstruction of completed athletic-retirement transitions using existing training records and voluntary interviews; the audit cannot change training, healthcare, employment, benefits, or team status.","decision_authority":"The athlete controls retirement and participation decisions; licensed clinicians retain authority over medical or mental-health care; coaches may advise on training only with athlete consent and within clinical restrictions; the sport scientist classifies evidence and transition options but cannot prescribe treatment or compel continued sport participation.","excluded_actions":["Using monitoring results to pressure an athlete to delay or reverse retirement","Treating loss of performance or training volume as a medical or psychiatric diagnosis","Replacing clinical or mental-health assessment with a transition score","Disclosing identifiable health, financial, contractual, or psychological information to selectors, employers, or media","Maintaining elite training loads solely to preserve team utility or research continuity","Withdrawing established care, benefits, or crisis support at a symbolic retirement date","Experimentally inducing severe detraining, isolation, sleep disruption, or identity threat"],"halt_rollback":"In any later pilot, stop transition-related testing or load changes when the athlete withdraws consent, a clinician identifies medical risk, acute psychological distress or crisis indicators emerge, or daily functioning materially deteriorates. Restore the last athlete-accepted activity and support arrangement where feasible, preserve records, activate the appropriate licensed-care pathway, and require athlete-led reassessment before resuming."},"baseline":"A date-based retirement handoff in which competition eligibility, team access, structured training, monitoring, and support end together or follow a generic short taper, with subsequent adaptation treated as ordinary detraining and administrative exit.","candidate_id":"continuity_rupture_regime_diagnosis_and_transition_design__sport_science__ORDINARY_DIVERSE_P2","causal_chain":["The athlete's final competition or contract date creates a salient administrative boundary, but training load, cardiovascular and musculoskeletal adaptation, daily routine, identity, income, care access, and social connection may change on different timelines.","Some properties may drift through planned detraining while others may cross thresholds when team access, external structure, peer contact, or performance goals disappear.","A single retirement date can therefore produce false rupture for slowly changing physiological properties and false continuity for abruptly lost roles, relationships, services, or obligations.","The transition atlas defines each changing property and invariant, reconstructs micro-to-career timelines, and pairs physiological, behavioral, institutional, and athlete-account evidence around alternative boundaries.","Process tracing and bounded reversibility analysis distinguish proportional detraining from cumulative loss, threshold crossing, contextual shock, endogenous routine reorganization, and mere administrative relabeling.","The resulting mixed regime determines which elements should taper gradually, continue temporarily in parallel, pass staged gates, transfer to community or clinical ownership, or end decisively.","Monitoring tests whether the selected tempo still fits recovery, daily functioning, self-directed activity, service continuity, and the athlete's stated goals, with authority to pause or redesign the transition."],"cell_id":"continuity_rupture_regime_diagnosis_and_transition_design__sport_science","consequence":"Misclassifying retirement as one uniform change can either preserve unwanted elite obligations and loads after the athlete intends to leave or abruptly remove structure, relationships, records, and support that require a governed transfer. Either error can make physiological adaptation, daily functioning, and support needs harder to interpret and recover.","diversity_from_prior_proposals":"This opportunity concerns retirement from organized competition rather than injury reintegration. Its affected problem is asynchronous change across physiology, routine, identity, relationships, and support access; its intervention is a retirement-transition atlas and governed transfer plan; and its causal path runs from a symbolic career boundary through mismatched property-specific timelines to a mixed exit regime.","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","intervention":"Create an athlete-controlled Retirement Transition Atlas and Exit-Regime Plan. It defines separate change objects for structured training load, physiological conditioning, pain or symptom management, sleep and routine, performance identity, team relationships, healthcare and monitoring access, and contractual obligations. Candidate invariants include voluntary decision-making, continuity of records and indicated care, understandable ownership transfers, and the athlete's right to end elite-performance duties. The team reconstructs daily, weekly, seasonal, contractual, and career timelines around alternative boundaries such as the last competition, decision to retire, contract expiration, final team-supported session, and loss or transfer of services. A continuity–rupture ledger pairs performance and health traces with routine, relationship, service-access, and athlete-account evidence. Mechanism classification and return-path analysis then inform a property-specific regime: gradual load taper where proportional adaptation is plausible, staged transfer of monitoring or care, time-bounded parallel support, reversible trials of self-directed activity, and decisive termination of unwanted performance obligations. Gates, support ownership, record transfer, consent renewal, crisis escalation, sunset dates, and revision triggers govern implementation.","mechanism_mapping":[{"counterfactual_removal":"Without comparing daily, weekly, seasonal, contractual, and career resolutions, the final competition date could be mistaken for the onset and completion of every physiological and social change.","mechanism_slug":"multi_resolution_change_point_and_trend_comparison","role":"Compare property-specific trajectories around multiple candidate retirement boundaries and identify conclusions that depend on observation window or resolution."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without process tracing, reduced activity, sleep change, pain, altered routine, or distress could be assigned to generic detraining despite possible service loss, schedule removal, injury history, financial change, or measurement discontinuity.","mechanism_slug":"process_tracing_and_mechanism_discrimination","role":"Trace sequences linking administrative events, training changes, support access, daily behavior, athlete interpretation, and clinical context while retaining rival explanations."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without paired claims, preserved fitness or occasional exercise could be used to deny a functional rupture, while the retirement announcement could be used to exaggerate discontinuity in slowly adapting physiology.","mechanism_slug":"continuity_rupture_claim_matrix","role":"Place evidence of persistence and break side by side for each property, scale, interval, and affected perspective, including uncertainty, dissent, and missingness."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without bounded probes, the team could assume that removing structure is harmlessly reversible or that any initial difficulty proves permanent dependence on elite sport.","mechanism_slug":"threshold_hysteresis_and_reversibility_probe","role":"Use athlete-chosen, low-risk trials of self-directed activity, schedule flexibility, or reduced support contact to observe proportionality, threshold behavior, and whether restoring prior support restores the prior state."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without a transfer rehearsal, records, referrals, exercise guidance, monitoring ownership, and escalation routes might fail only after team access ends.","mechanism_slug":"parallel_transition_and_cutover_rehearsal","role":"Rehearse a bounded handoff from team-controlled to athlete-selected community or clinical support while responsibilities remain explicit and duplicate arrangements have a sunset."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without post-transition audit, elite obligations might persist informally, needed support might vanish at contract end, or nominally transferred records and relationships might remain unusable.","mechanism_slug":"post_transition_legacy_loss_and_regime_audit","role":"Compare promised and realized endings, transfers, preserved functions, athlete control, support access, record usability, and recovery conditions after each gate."}],"nearest_rivals":["A fixed post-career detraining schedule","Administrative offboarding tied only to contract or eligibility dates","Generic retirement counseling without physiological or service-transition analysis","Indefinite continuation of team monitoring after competition ends","A one-time wellness or readiness questionnaire","Ungoverned transfer from elite training to recreational exercise"],"negative_tests":{"intervention_falsifier":"The intervention is undermined if blinded reviewers cannot reproducibly distinguish property-specific regimes from a single retirement timeline, or if every recommendation produced by the atlas matches the date-based handoff despite preregistered multi-scale and mechanism evidence.","problem_falsifier":"The problem is falsified in the studied setting if physiological, behavioral, relational, and service-access properties change proportionally around the same boundary; conclusions remain stable across scales; entry and return paths are symmetric; and no property-specific distinction changes the appropriate transition regime.","risks":["Retrospective accounts being distorted by recall, current circumstances, or loyalty to the former team","Monitoring extending performance surveillance into a period the athlete wants private","Normal variation being pathologized as a transition failure","A small reversible probe failing to reveal difficulties that emerge only after prolonged separation","Parallel support creating ambiguous clinical, data, or financial responsibility","Transition gates becoming informal permission requirements for retirement","Sensitive identity, health, contract, or financial information being disclosed beyond consent","Generic taper recommendations overlooking individual clinical restrictions or long-standing injury consequences"],"strongest_counterevidence":"A consistently documented set of retirements in which the final competition or contract date aligns with proportional changes across training, physiology, routine, relationships, and support access, and in which a generic taper plus administrative handoff leaves no decision-relevant discordance, would argue against the additional regime-diagnosis layer."},"next_evidence_step":"Conduct one bounded retrospective feasibility audit of no more than 12 completed retirements from a single sport program. With consent, use only existing training and service records plus one voluntary interview per participant. Pre-register candidate boundaries, property definitions, missingness rules, and rival mechanisms; reconstruct the final competitive season through six months after the last formal team involvement where records exist; and have two blinded reviewers compare the atlas classification with the baseline date-based account. Stop after reporting data availability, reviewer agreement, scale-sensitive discordances, unresolved counterevidence, and cases in which the inferred transition regime would have differed; do not alter care, benefits, employment, or training.","observable_state":"For each consenting athlete: dates of retirement decision, final competition, eligibility or contract end, final team-supported training, and service transfer; training frequency, duration, intensity, modality, and supervision; available fitness and clinical measures collected during ordinary practice; pain or symptom-management records; sleep, daily-structure, and self-directed activity reports; attendance and contact with coaches, teammates, clinicians, or community providers; ownership and accessibility of records; referrals and support entitlements; athlete-stated goals, identity and relationship accounts, consent boundaries, and perceived points of continuity or break; instrument changes and missing observations.","prior_art_status":"UNSEARCHED","problem":"Athletic retirement is often represented by a single final competition or contract date, even though detraining, symptom management, daily routine, identity, team relationships, monitoring access, and care ownership may change at different rates and boundaries. Without property-specific and multi-scale diagnosis, staff cannot tell whether observed changes reflect proportional adaptation, cumulative withdrawal of structure, a threshold in functioning or support access, an external shock, endogenous reorganization, or an administrative relabeling. A uniform abrupt exit or generic gradual taper may therefore impose the wrong transition tempo on different parts of the athlete's life.","proposal_index":2,"remaining_contrastive_claim":"Relative to date-based offboarding and generic detraining, this candidate makes retirement tempo conditional on diagnosed property-specific dynamics: elite-performance obligations may end decisively while training load, care, records, relationships, and self-directed routine follow separate governed paths. Whether those distinctions alter transition decisions is left to the bounded audit.","revision_record":{"claim_changes":[],"conceptual_changes":[],"evidence_changes":[],"operational_changes":[],"parent_version":null,"progress_targets_addressed":["Generated one closed-book independent second opportunity","Specified a sport-science problem distinct from injury return and performance reintegration","Preserved the archetype's object-to-timeline-to-mechanism-to-regime-to-revision structure","Defined athlete control, professional authority, safeguards, falsifiers, risks, and a bounded read-only first step"]},"schema_version":1,"structural_mapping":[{"archetype_element":"Change Object, Property, and Invariant Frame","domain_realization":"The comparison separates training load, physiological conditioning, symptom management, routine, identity, relationships, service access, and obligations; invariants include athlete choice, record continuity, indicated-care continuity, and freedom from unwanted performance duties."},{"archetype_element":"Multi-Scale Timeline and Boundary Set","domain_realization":"Daily, weekly, seasonal, contractual, and career timelines are aligned around the retirement decision, last competition, contract end, final supported session, and transfer or loss of services."},{"archetype_element":"Change-Mechanism and Regime Classifier","domain_realization":"For each property, reviewers compare proportional drift, cumulative loss, threshold crossing, contextual shock, endogenous reorganization, replacement of routines or providers, and administrative reframing."},{"archetype_element":"Continuity–Rupture Evidence Ledger","domain_realization":"Performance and health traces are paired with evidence about routine, relationships, support access, athlete experience, dissent, missingness, and changes in measurement or record ownership."},{"archetype_element":"Threshold, Path-Dependence, and Reversibility Profile","domain_realization":"The profile records dependence on external structure, support-loss thresholds, accumulated adaptations, switching costs, and whether restoring activity or support reverses the observed state."},{"archetype_element":"Affected-Party, Legacy, and Loss Map","domain_realization":"The map covers athlete rights and identity, clinical duties, coaching relationships, training knowledge, longitudinal records, contractual benefits, referral dependencies, and elements to preserve, transfer, archive, compensate, or end."},{"archetype_element":"Transition-Regime, Safeguard, and Cutover Plan","domain_realization":"Each property receives a justified abrupt, gradual, staged, bounded-parallel, or reversible transition with explicit ownership, consent, gates, sunset dates, record transfer, escalation routes, and fallback."},{"archetype_element":"Regime Monitor, Recovery, and Revision Loop","domain_realization":"Monitoring tracks self-directed activity, clinical and daily functioning, support continuity, unwanted obligation persistence, record usability, athlete-defined outcomes, unexpected continuity or rupture, and triggers to pause, accelerate, restore support, or redesign."}],"title":"Athletic Retirement Transition Atlas for Asynchronous Detraining, Identity, and Support Change","version":0}