{"abstention_reason":null,"arm":"SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","candidate_id":"deterioration_monitoring__sport_science__SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","cell_id":"deterioration_monitoring__sport_science","decision":"PROPOSAL","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","proposal":{"actors":["Athletes using the field","Sports-turf manager or groundskeeper","Sport scientist or biomechanist","Facilities manager","Team athletic trainer or event safety officer"],"affected_objective":"Preserve a field's spatially consistent traction, impact attenuation, and surface stability so athletes can accelerate, cut, land, and fall without encountering localized mechanical conditions that have silently degraded beyond the intended playing envelope.","arm":"SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","authority_safety":{"authorized_first_step":"On one consenting facility's natural-grass or infilled-synthetic field, conduct a four-week shadow-mode pilot using non-destructive mechanical measurements before already scheduled use; mark suspected zones for expert inspection but do not automatically cancel activity or alter maintenance solely from provisional thresholds.","decision_authority":"The turf manager controls ordinary physical maintenance; the facilities manager or designated event-safety officer decides field restriction, relocation, or closure; licensed clinicians retain authority over athlete health; athletes and officials may report unsafe footing and stop participation under existing safety procedures. Instruments provide condition evidence but do not independently authorize play.","excluded_actions":["Declaring an athlete medically safe because the surface passes inspection","Using provisional instrument thresholds as the sole basis for competition cancellation","Testing occupied field zones where equipment could strike or obstruct athletes","Applying water, chemicals, infill, or mechanical treatment without the turf manager's authorization and product or facility constraints","Concealing localized failures behind a field-wide average","Increasing athlete exposure to test whether a suspect surface causes slips or symptoms","Replacing required governing-body or facility safety inspections"],"halt_rollback":"Stop measurement for lightning, active play, unsafe equipment operation, visible utilities, unstable tester placement, or interference with emergency access. Suspend the pilot if repeated testing damages the surface, provisional alarms cause unsafe maintenance, or measurements are represented as validated injury predictions. Remove test equipment and markings, revert to established inspection and field-authority procedures, and physically repair any test-related surface damage."},"baseline":"The comparator is ordinary groundskeeping and pre-use visual or walk-through inspection: staff respond to visible divots, standing water, seams, exposed base, displaced infill, or athlete complaints, but may not preserve spatially registered histories of rotational traction, impact attenuation, moisture or infill condition, and surface displacement with trend-based warning bands and predefined physical response pathways.","candidate_id":"deterioration_monitoring__sport_science__SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","causal_chain":["Traffic, weather, compaction, root loss, infill migration, seam movement, and repeated cutting or landing loads gradually alter the field's material and mechanical condition.","High-use or poorly drained zones can develop excessive or insufficient shoe-surface grip, harder impacts, unstable footing, or abrupt spatial transitions while the field remains visually playable.","Because athletes adapt step by step and visual checks miss subsurface compaction or distributed material loss, localized degradation can be normalized until slipping, joint loading, falls, or play disruption becomes conspicuous.","Recurring grid-based measurements directly probe mechanical traction and impact response while companion depth, moisture, displacement, and visual observations help distinguish degradation modes.","Spatially registered histories reveal persistent slopes, expanding patches, and growing contrasts between adjacent zones rather than treating a single reading or field-wide mean as decisive.","A corroborated warning triggers targeted physical inspection and maintenance such as aeration, irrigation correction, divot repair, infill redistribution, brushing, seam repair, or temporary isolation of a zone.","Post-maintenance measurements test whether the material condition returned toward its established band; persistent unacceptable readings are routed to the authorized official for restricted use, resurfacing, or field replacement decisions.","Comparing alarms, physical findings, maintenance effects, and missed defects recalibrates the grid, cadence, and provisional bands before breakdown or a surface-related event forces attention."],"cell_id":"deterioration_monitoring__sport_science","consequence":"Undetected localized loss of traction consistency, impact attenuation, or surface stability can expose athletes to unexpected shoe-surface grip, harder landings, slips, and abrupt transitions; recognition may arrive only after complaints, disrupted play, extensive resurfacing needs, or a potentially surface-related injury event.","diversity_from_prior_proposals":"P1 monitors within-athlete pitching mechanics and recovery using repeated bullpen samples to prompt coaching or clinical review. This proposal monitors deterioration of the playing surface itself using direct mechanical field probes and spatial sampling, then triggers physical turf repair, zone isolation, resurfacing, or replacement. The affected condition, intervention object, actors, evidence path, response pathway, and primary substrate are materially different.","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","intervention":"Establish a Spatial Playing-Surface Mechanical Condition Loop. For one field type, divide the surface into fixed functional zones, including goalmouths, bases or crease areas, cutting corridors, sidelines, seams, drainage lows, and lower-traffic reference zones. During an accepted playable period, collect at least three comparable baseline rounds using a portable rotational-traction tester and impact-attenuation instrument; add physical measurements appropriate to the surface, such as soil moisture and penetration resistance for natural grass or infill depth and seam displacement for synthetic turf. Repeat a compact non-destructive grid before each competition block or weekly during heavy use, with additional inspection after extreme rain, heat, freeze-thaw, or unusually concentrated traffic. Preserve zone-level values and instrument uncertainty. A provisional warning requires a zone to drift persistently from its own baseline, cross a facility-accepted mechanical band, or develop a corroborated contrast with adjacent zones; visible hazards bypass persistence rules. The turf manager inspects the material cause and applies authorized targeted maintenance. Re-test repaired zones before return to ordinary use. Persistent unacceptable condition is referred to the designated field authority for isolation, use restriction, resurfacing, or replacement.","mechanism_mapping":[{"counterfactual_removal":"Without field- and zone-specific reference distributions, normal differences among positions, surface constructions, and seasons can be mistaken for deterioration or ignored as background variation.","mechanism_slug":"baseline_condition_model","role":"Defines healthy, acceptable, warning, and unacceptable mechanical condition for comparable zones and environmental states."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without direct physical indicators of traction and impact response, the loop would rely primarily on appearance or athlete incidents and could miss consequential subsurface or material changes.","mechanism_slug":"condition_monitoring_sensor","role":"Portable mechanical instruments apply standardized loads and measure the surface's traction and attenuation response."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without spatially repeated inspection, localized high-use patches and abrupt transitions can remain hidden inside a playable field-wide impression.","mechanism_slug":"preventive_inspection","role":"Samples fixed high-risk, reference, and adjacency zones before visible breakdown or a surface-related event."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without retained zone histories, staff cannot distinguish transient wetness or measurement noise from persistent compaction, infill migration, root loss, or seam movement.","mechanism_slug":"trend_monitoring","role":"Tracks direction, persistence, acceleration, patch expansion, and increasing contrast between neighboring zones."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without staged bands and a visible-hazard bypass, measurements would neither define early maintenance timing nor guarantee immediate handling of obvious danger.","mechanism_slug":"repair_threshold","role":"Converts persistent or corroborated mechanical degradation into inspection, repair, retest, and restriction triggers."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without a named physical-condition owner and referral route, suspect zones could remain documented while athletes continue using them.","mechanism_slug":"accountable_condition_owner","role":"Assigns investigation and maintenance to the turf manager and use restriction or closure to the designated field authority."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without targeted material repair and verification, the intervention would be surface reporting rather than deterioration management.","mechanism_slug":"response_pathway","role":"Links degradation modes to aeration, moisture correction, divot or seam repair, infill redistribution, zone isolation, resurfacing, or replacement followed by remeasurement."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without comparing warnings against physical findings and repair response, thresholds could remain sensitive to weather, tester technique, surface type, or harmless seasonal change.","mechanism_slug":"false_alarm_review","role":"Uses inspection findings, repeatability checks, missed defects, and post-maintenance recovery to recalibrate indicators and cadence."}],"nearest_rivals":["A fixed mowing, brushing, watering, aeration, or infill schedule performs maintenance by calendar; this intervention changes the response according to measured spatial deterioration and verifies recovery afterward.","A pregame visual hazard walk can catch holes, debris, open seams, or standing water at one moment; this intervention also detects and trends mechanically important condition that may not be visually obvious.","Weather-based cancellation responds to current rain, heat, lightning, or freeze conditions; this intervention measures the material surface state produced by cumulative traffic, weather, and maintenance history.","Athlete injury surveillance counts health outcomes after exposure; this intervention examines an upstream environmental condition before an athlete event and does not infer injury causation from a surface reading.","A one-time field-certification test establishes compliance at a date; this intervention preserves zone-level trend memory, warning thresholds, repair linkage, and post-repair verification across a season.","Player workload monitoring changes individual exposure based on athlete condition; this intervention physically assesses and repairs the shared shoe-surface interface."],"negative_tests":{"intervention_falsifier":"The intervention is undermined if standardized instruments cannot achieve acceptable repeatability under controlled field conditions, zone trends do not correspond to blinded physical inspection or verified material defects, targeted maintenance does not move readings predictably toward reference condition, or the loop identifies no actionable deterioration beyond ordinary visual inspection.","problem_falsifier":"The proposed problem is unsupported at the pilot facility if mechanical surface condition remains stable within measurement uncertainty, consequential defects appear only as abrupt random hazards without detectable precursors, or no feasible maintenance or use-restriction window exists between measured degradation and breakdown.","risks":["Rotational-traction or impact instruments may not reproduce sport-, footwear-, speed-, or movement-specific loading.","Weather and temperature may shift measurements without indicating cumulative deterioration.","Tester technique, device calibration, base construction, and sampling position may create artificial spatial trends.","Testing may damage natural turf or displace synthetic infill if performed too frequently.","Provisional thresholds may create false reassurance or unnecessary closures.","Field-wide averages may conceal hazardous patches or sharp transitions.","Maintenance that improves one property, such as softness, may worsen another, such as traction or surface stability.","Added water, infill, aeration, or brushing may be inappropriate for the surface construction or immediate weather.","A measured association with a surface condition does not establish that the condition will cause a particular injury.","Operations pressure may lead staff to ignore warnings or selectively sample favorable zones.","Equipment and test markings can become trip or collision hazards if not removed before use."],"strongest_counterevidence":"Laboratory-style surface tests capture only simplified loading, while actual shoe-surface interaction depends on footwear, movement, athlete mass, speed, weather, and technique. A mechanically unusual reading may therefore fail to represent meaningful athlete exposure, and expert visual inspection may already detect the defects that maintenance staff can feasibly correct."},"next_evidence_step":"Run a four-week shadow-mode study on one field without changing existing play decisions. Pre-register fixed zones, instrument procedures, environmental comparability rules, calibration checks, provisional warning logic, and missing-data handling. Have two trained operators repeat a blinded subset to estimate reliability. Compare alerts with independent blinded inspection by an experienced turf manager, physically document confirmed compaction, infill loss, seam movement, instability, or drainage defects, and measure whether ordinary authorized maintenance produces the predicted directional change. Record testing time, any surface disturbance, false alarms, missed visible defects, and whether each confirmed trend left a feasible repair window.","observable_state":"The condition record contains spatially registered rotational-traction and impact-attenuation readings with repeated-trial variability, plus surface-appropriate physical context such as moisture, penetration resistance, infill depth, seam displacement, temperature, recent precipitation, traffic, and maintenance. Healthy zones remain within established mechanical variation and lack hazardous spatial contrasts. Acceptable zones show isolated or environmentally explained deviations. Warning zones show persistent drift, corroborated change across physical indicators, an expanding degraded patch, or a facility-defined contrast with adjacent zones. Unacceptable zones exhibit a visible hazard, repeated mechanical condition beyond the accepted envelope, failed repair verification, or a field-authority-defined safety concern.","prior_art_status":"UNSEARCHED","problem":"Playing surfaces can deteriorate gradually and unevenly across a season. Repeated traffic, precipitation, drying, compaction, root loss, infill migration, and seam movement can alter shoe-surface traction, impact attenuation, and footing stability in localized zones that still look broadly playable. Athletes may unconsciously adapt to small changes, and field-wide or visual assessments can normalize the decline until a slip, hard landing, surface failure, or major repair need makes it obvious.","proposal_index":2,"remaining_contrastive_claim":"This is deterioration monitoring of a shared physical performance environment: unlike scheduled turf care, weather rules, injury surveillance, one-time certification, or athlete monitoring, it requires recurring direct mechanical probes, spatial trend memory, staged condition thresholds, targeted material repair, and post-repair verification before visible surface breakdown.","revision_record":{"claim_changes":["Initial P2 version; it makes no modifications to sealed P1 claims.","Claims are limited to detecting actionable mechanical surface deterioration and do not assert that a threshold predicts or causes a specific injury."],"conceptual_changes":["Selected the playing surface, rather than an athlete's mechanics or recovery, as the independent condition to preserve.","Mapped deterioration monitoring to spatial material-condition change and physical repair rather than coaching or clinical response."],"evidence_changes":["No external evidence was searched or added; instruments, bands, and cadence remain provisional and surface-specific.","Added explicit tests of operator repeatability, agreement with blinded turf inspection, and response to physical maintenance."],"operational_changes":["Specified fixed functional zones, direct traction and impact measurements, surface-specific companion probes, event-triggered inspections, visible-hazard bypass, post-repair retesting, and authority boundaries for restriction or closure."],"parent_version":null,"progress_targets_addressed":["Material independence from P1","Alternative physical and measurement substrate","Observable condition bands","Spatial trend interpretation","Signal-to-physical-repair linkage","Authority and safety boundaries","Problem and intervention falsifiers","Bounded shadow-mode evidence step"]},"schema_version":1,"structural_mapping":[{"archetype_element":"Define condition to preserve","domain_realization":"Preserve spatially consistent shoe-surface traction, impact attenuation, and footing stability across the playable field."},{"archetype_element":"Establish baseline and bands","domain_realization":"Use repeated measurements during an accepted playable period to define surface- and zone-specific healthy variation, warning bands, and unacceptable conditions."},{"archetype_element":"Select deterioration indicators","domain_realization":"Directly measure rotational traction and impact response, supported by surface-specific material indicators such as moisture, penetration resistance, infill depth, or seam displacement."},{"archetype_element":"Set inspection cadence","domain_realization":"Inspect weekly or before competition blocks during heavy use and after environmental or traffic events capable of accelerating material change."},{"archetype_element":"Track trends rather than points","domain_realization":"Preserve fixed-zone histories to detect persistent drift, acceleration, expanding patches, and growing contrasts between adjacent zones."},{"archetype_element":"Define thresholds and escalation","domain_realization":"Trigger investigation from persistent, corroborated, or contrastive degradation while routing visible hazards immediately to the designated field authority."},{"archetype_element":"Connect to response pathways","domain_realization":"Match the confirmed degradation mode to targeted physical maintenance, retest the zone, and escalate failed recovery to isolation, resurfacing, or replacement."},{"archetype_element":"Recalibrate monitoring","domain_realization":"Review instrument repeatability, environmental confounding, physical inspection findings, false alarms, missed defects, and post-maintenance response before revising the grid, cadence, or bands."}],"substrate_contract":{"counterfactual_independence":"Removing dashboards, software, databases, algorithms, automated alerts, and organizational routing would make recordkeeping slower but would not remove the essential effect: standardized physical instruments can still reveal changing traction, attenuation, compaction, material depth, and seam displacement, and authorized staff can physically repair or isolate degraded zones from paper records.","forbidden_channel_audit":"The proposal does not depend on training athletes, changing incentives, computational prediction, digital control, governance reform, or information routing for its essential causal effect. Governance only assigns safe testing, maintenance, and closure authority; optional digital storage only preserves measurements. The decisive evidence comes from physical loading and measurement of the surface, and the response changes the material surface or removes it from exposure.","primary_allowed_process":"MEASUREMENT_INSTRUMENTATION"},"title":"Spatial Playing-Surface Mechanical Condition Loop","version":0},"schema_version":1}