{"actors":["Athletes on one training squad","Strength and conditioning coaches","Sport scientists","Team sports-medicine clinicians"],"affected_objective":"Keep the squad's planned training stimulus stable while preventing the squad average from authorizing unsuitable load progression for an athlete with a materially different recovery trajectory.","arm":"COMMON_P1","authority_safety":{"authorized_first_step":"A sport scientist may retrospectively compute and then shadow-run the dual-level display using already collected, access-controlled data; it cannot change training assignments during this step.","decision_authority":"The strength and conditioning coach retains training-plan authority, sports-medicine clinicians retain medical restriction and return-to-play authority, and an athlete may report symptoms or decline a drill under existing team procedures.","excluded_actions":["Automated diagnosis or injury prediction","Automatic restriction, selection, discipline, or contract consequences","Changing medical clearance from dashboard data alone","Collecting new sensitive data without consent and governance review","Comparing athletes across positions using unadjusted thresholds"],"halt_rollback":"Stop the shadow pilot and revert to existing reporting if data linkage is unreliable, alerts reveal protected information beyond authorized staff, or component readings conflict with symptoms or clinical restrictions; preserve an audit log and delete pilot-derived views under the team's data-retention rules."},"baseline":"A squad dashboard reports mean completion of the planned external load and mean session load across the microcycle; when those means remain in their target bands, coaches generally advance the common plan, handling individual exceptions through ad hoc observation or athlete self-report.","candidate_id":"ensemble_and_population_level_equilibrium_versus_individual_level_heterogeneity__sport_science__COMMON_P1","causal_chain":["A stable microcycle plan produces a squad-level mean actual-to-planned external-load ratio that remains within its predeclared band.","That valid macro indicator compresses athlete-session trajectories and does not show which athletes repeatedly depart from their own recent response ranges.","A coach reading the stable mean as evidence of uniform adaptation can advance the next common session for athletes whose soreness, perceived exertion, recovery heart rate, or countermovement-jump output is locally atypical.","The intervention displays the stable squad indicator alongside athlete-level component trajectories, position and session-role strata, and explicit aggregation rules.","A predeclared repeated-excursion rule routes only the affected athlete-session to human review while leaving unflagged variation and the squad plan intact.","The reviewer can preserve the macro plan, modify one athlete's drill volume or recovery interval within existing authority, or refer the case to sports medicine without treating the display as a diagnosis.","Continued monitoring of both the squad mean and the distribution tests whether targeted adjustments conceal deterioration in overall plan delivery or merely suppress normal variation."],"cell_id":"ensemble_and_population_level_equilibrium_versus_individual_level_heterogeneity__sport_science","consequence":"An athlete may receive progression based on a stable squad average despite a divergent recovery response, potentially producing an avoidable mismatch between the prescribed session and that athlete's current capacity; conversely, indiscriminate correction could suppress benign specialization or ordinary day-to-day variation.","diversity_from_prior_proposals":"No prior proposals were inspected under runtime isolation; this candidate is differentiated internally by preserving a valid squad-load equilibrium while gating only repeated athlete-level recovery excursions.","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","intervention":"Add a dual-level training-load gate to one squad's microcycle review. Define the ensemble as all eligible athlete-sessions in a fixed drill class and four-week rolling window. Keep the squad's player-session-weighted mean actual-to-planned external-load ratio as the macro equilibrium indicator, but display its median, quantiles, missingness, position and session-role strata, and each athlete's component-level deviations from their own comparable-session history. If a predeclared component excursion repeats across two comparable sessions, or an athlete reports concerning symptoms, route that athlete-session to coach and, when appropriate, clinician review before load progression. Do not average the recovery components into an opaque readiness score, and continue showing squad stability after any targeted adjustment.","mechanism_mapping":[{"counterfactual_removal":"Without the dashboard, a green squad mean can again conceal athlete-level tails and repeated trajectories.","mechanism_slug":"distributional_dashboard","role":"Pairs the macro load-completion indicator with quantiles, missingness, strata, and athlete trajectories."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without the crosswalk, reviewers cannot verify how athlete-sessions produce the headline value or identify information discarded by pooling.","mechanism_slug":"micro_macro_crosswalk","role":"Documents the player-session weighting, eligibility rules, comparable-session definition, and information lost in aggregation."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without the alert, distributional information may remain descriptive and fail to trigger review at the level where the excursion occurs.","mechanism_slug":"subgroup_excursion_alert","role":"Routes predeclared repeated athlete-level or stratum-level excursions to human review while the squad mean may remain stable."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without stratified review, position, drill exposure, absence, or return-to-training status may create misleading comparisons.","mechanism_slug":"stratified_sampling_review","role":"Checks coverage and comparability across positions, session roles, drill exposures, and missing observations."}],"nearest_rivals":["Individualized periodization, which begins with athlete-specific prescriptions rather than interpreting heterogeneity beneath a valid squad equilibrium","A single composite readiness or injury-risk score, which compresses heterogeneous signals into another athlete-level summary","Aggregation-bias correction, which would replace or reweight an invalid squad metric rather than retain a valid macro indicator and limit its interpretation","General variability monitoring, which describes spread without tying it to a stable squad-load claim and an intervention-level decision"],"negative_tests":{"intervention_falsifier":"In shadow use, the gate is falsified as a useful decision aid if predeclared excursions do not correspond to reproducible athlete trajectories on manual review, if reviewers cannot distinguish actionable from benign variation with acceptable agreement, or if the same review decisions are reached from the baseline display without the dual-level information.","problem_falsifier":"The proposed problem is undermined if comparable athlete-sessions show a narrow distribution around the squad indicator, repeated within-athlete excursions are absent after accounting for measurement error and drill exposure, or progression decisions already use documented athlete-level trajectories consistently.","risks":["False alerts from noisy sensors, self-report variation, or noncomparable sessions","Missed excursions because of absent or selectively recorded athlete data","Stigmatization or selection pressure if individual displays reach unauthorized staff","Threshold gaming or symptom under-reporting by athletes","Over-standardization of benign position-specific or adaptive variation","Causal overreach from an observational excursion to an injury or performance claim","Small strata creating identifiable or unstable comparisons","Targeted load reductions preserving a green macro indicator while shifting burden to other athletes"],"strongest_counterevidence":"Existing coach and clinician review may already integrate athlete histories, symptoms, and drill exposure more accurately than a formal alert, making the mean-only dashboard an incomplete description of actual decision practice rather than the cause of unsuitable progression."},"next_evidence_step":"Using one squad's already collected data, select one drill class and four consecutive completed microcycles, predeclare eligibility, weighting, comparable-session rules, missingness handling, component excursion thresholds, and authorized reviewers, then replay decisions retrospectively and shadow-run the display for the next two microcycles. Record alert reproducibility, reviewer agreement, baseline-versus-dual-display decision differences, missing-data patterns, privacy incidents, and whether squad-load stability remains visible; make no automated or experimental training changes.","observable_state":"Across four comparable microcycles, the player-session-weighted mean actual-to-planned external-load ratio remains inside its predeclared squad band, while the display may show repeated within-athlete deviations in component measures such as session perceived exertion, next-day soreness, recovery heart rate, or countermovement-jump output. Each observation is tagged by athlete, position, drill exposure, session role, time window, and missingness; macro stability is asserted only for the eligible athlete-session ensemble, not for any individual.","prior_art_status":"UNSEARCHED","problem":"A coaching staff treats a stable squad-level actual-to-planned training-load ratio as sufficient support for advancing the common microcycle. The ratio can be valid for the eligible athlete-session ensemble while concealing repeated athlete-specific recovery excursions, especially across different positions, drill exposures, and return-to-training roles. This creates a level-of-analysis error: squad equilibrium is interpreted as individual readiness.","proposal_index":1,"remaining_contrastive_claim":"The candidate's distinguishing claim is that a valid, stable squad-load indicator should be retained but bounded: repeated athlete-level recovery excursions should trigger human review without being treated as proof that the squad equilibrium is false or that all heterogeneity requires correction.","revision_record":{"claim_changes":[],"conceptual_changes":[],"evidence_changes":[],"operational_changes":[],"parent_version":null,"progress_targets_addressed":["Defined a concrete squad-level equilibrium and athlete-session ensemble","Specified the aggregation rule and information lost through pooling","Bound population-level and athlete-level claims","Mapped heterogeneity by role, exposure, and trajectory","Selected a targeted, human-reviewed intervention level","Included macro and distributional monitoring, safeguards, falsifiers, and a bounded evidence step"]},"schema_version":1,"structural_mapping":[{"archetype_element":"Ensemble Frame","domain_realization":"Eligible athlete-sessions from one squad, one drill class, and a fixed four-week rolling window, with exclusions and missingness declared."},{"archetype_element":"Macro Equilibrium Indicator","domain_realization":"Player-session-weighted mean actual-to-planned external-load ratio inside a predeclared band across comparable microcycles."},{"archetype_element":"Microstate Variability Profile","domain_realization":"Athlete-specific trajectories and distributional quantiles for external-load completion, perceived exertion, soreness, recovery heart rate, and countermovement-jump output."},{"archetype_element":"Aggregation Translation Rule","domain_realization":"Eligible athlete-session ratios are weighted and pooled into the squad mean; pooling discards trajectory order, tails, component disagreement, exposure context, and within-athlete baselines."},{"archetype_element":"Level-of-Analysis Boundary","domain_realization":"The squad indicator supports only a claim about delivery of the plan across the defined ensemble; it does not establish any athlete's readiness, adaptation, diagnosis, or injury risk."},{"archetype_element":"Heterogeneity Relevance Test","domain_realization":"Variation becomes review-relevant when a component excursion repeats in comparable sessions, crosses a safety rule, clusters within a declared stratum, or accompanies athlete-reported symptoms; isolated measurement noise and expected position differences are preserved."},{"archetype_element":"Subgroup and Locality Map","domain_realization":"Excursions are examined by athlete, position, drill exposure, session role, return-to-training status, and microcycle timing without using protected traits for training selection."},{"archetype_element":"Multi-Level Feedback Design","domain_realization":"The review displays squad stability and athlete distributions together, routes local excursions to authorized humans, and rechecks the squad indicator after targeted changes."},{"archetype_element":"Representative Case Guardrail","domain_realization":"No single athlete, extreme alert, or apparently typical responder may stand in for the squad distribution; cases are contextualized within quantiles and comparable-session histories."}],"title":"Dual-Level Training-Load Progression Gate","version":0}