{"abstention_reason":null,"arm":"SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","candidate_id":"ensemble_and_population_level_equilibrium_versus_individual_level_heterogeneity__sport_science__SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","cell_id":"ensemble_and_population_level_equilibrium_versus_individual_level_heterogeneity__sport_science","decision":"PROPOSAL","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","proposal":{"actors":["Athletes using one synthetic-turf field","Sport-surface and facilities staff","Biomechanists or sport scientists","Venue safety officials"],"affected_objective":"Preserve fieldwide conformance while preventing localized traction tails from imposing unsuitable slip resistance or torsional loading at particular foot-ground contact zones.","arm":"SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","authority_safety":{"authorized_first_step":"Facilities staff and a sport scientist may conduct a calibration and repeatability survey with a portable mechanical traction tester on a closed, unoccupied field, then treat and retest a small isolated pilot sector; no athlete testing or reopening is authorized by this step.","decision_authority":"The facilities manager controls surface treatment, the venue safety official controls closure and reopening, and sport-science staff advise on measurement interpretation without overriding manufacturer, governing-body, or venue safety requirements.","excluded_actions":["Using athletes as traction-test loads","Inferring individual injury risk from a surface-cell reading","Applying unapproved infill, chemicals, heat, or machinery","Reopening a treated sector before required inspection and mechanical retesting","Changing footwear mandates, athlete selection, or medical clearance from the survey","Treating isolated readings outside the instrument's repeatability limits as confirmed defects"],"halt_rollback":"Stop treatment and keep the sector closed if repeated readings diverge beyond the tester's repeatability limit, treatment moves traction farther outside the approved band, surface seams or backing are disturbed, or drainage and hardness checks deteriorate. Remove recoverable added infill and restore or replace the affected turf assembly under manufacturer-approved procedures before reconsidering reopening."},"baseline":"The field passes periodic certification and its spatially averaged rotational-traction value remains within the accepted operating band. Routine grooming is then applied broadly, while local differences are addressed mainly after visible wear or athlete complaints.","candidate_id":"ensemble_and_population_level_equilibrium_versus_individual_level_heterogeneity__sport_science__SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","causal_chain":["A spatially averaged rotational-traction measurement can remain stable and valid for the field as a whole.","Repeated cutting, braking, weather exposure, grooming, and infill migration create heterogeneous cell-level compaction and shear resistance beneath that stable mean.","Pooling grid cells removes the location and tail information needed to distinguish a uniformly conforming surface from compensating low- and high-traction patches.","Athletes contacting a tail patch encounter different foot-surface slip and rotational resistance than the fieldwide value implies, changing local movement mechanics even though the aggregate surface remains conforming.","A calibrated mechanical grid survey identifies persistent cell-level traction tails and maps their clustering by field zone and exposure regime.","Facilities staff physically decompact, groom, redistribute matched infill, or replace the turf element only in confirmed tail cells, according to the diagnosed material condition and approved maintenance limits.","Mechanical retesting determines whether treated cells return to the local band without degrading fieldwide mean traction, hardness, drainage, seams, or neighboring cells.","Continued macro and cell-level surveys preserve the valid fieldwide equilibrium claim while preventing it from authorizing exposure to persistent local mechanical outliers."],"cell_id":"ensemble_and_population_level_equilibrium_versus_individual_level_heterogeneity__sport_science","consequence":"A field that is acceptable on average may still expose athletes to localized low-traction slipping or high-traction rotational resistance; blanket treatment could also damage conforming zones or erase benign spatial variation.","diversity_from_prior_proposals":"P1 concerns athlete-specific recovery trajectories beneath a squad training-load mean and intervenes through a human-reviewed progression display. This proposal concerns spatial variation in the mechanical properties of a playing surface beneath a fieldwide traction mean and intervenes by physically modifying confirmed turf cells. Its affected problem, intervention target, causal substrate, and foot-surface causal path are materially independent of P1.","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","intervention":"Divide one synthetic-turf field into fixed spatial cells and retain the fieldwide, area-weighted mean rotational traction as the macro equilibrium indicator. On a closed field, take repeated, direction-balanced readings with a calibrated portable mechanical traction tester and record cell medians, repeatability, field zone, recent exposure, moisture condition, and infill depth. Confirm a local tail only when repeated readings exceed predeclared measurement and safety tolerances. Diagnose the physical condition of confirmed cells, then apply the least extensive approved material treatment—mechanical decompaction and grooming, redistribution or addition of matched infill, or replacement of a damaged turf element. Retest the treated cell and adjacent cells before reopening, and continue reporting both the fieldwide mean and the cell distribution so compensating high and low patches cannot disappear into the average.","mechanism_mapping":[{"counterfactual_removal":"Without the crosswalk, a reviewer cannot reconstruct how cell readings produce the fieldwide value or see that spatial location and tails disappear during averaging.","mechanism_slug":"micro_macro_crosswalk","role":"Defines the grid, area weighting, directional repeats, eligibility conditions, and information lost when cell traction is pooled."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without stratified sampling, frequently used central zones or convenient dry locations could dominate the survey while goal mouths, sidelines, seams, and differently exposed zones remain underrepresented.","mechanism_slug":"stratified_sampling_review","role":"Balances mechanical measurements across field zones, use intensity, direction, moisture regime, seams, and treatment status."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without the excursion rule, ordinary instrument scatter could trigger unnecessary maintenance or persistent local tails could remain merely descriptive.","mechanism_slug":"subgroup_excursion_alert","role":"Marks a physical cell for confirmation and treatment only after repeated measurements establish a persistent local excursion."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without the stress test, a treated cell could appear corrected under one direction or moisture state while remaining mechanically abnormal under another expected condition.","mechanism_slug":"equilibrium_stress_test","role":"Retests treated and neighboring cells across approved directional and moisture conditions while verifying that the fieldwide equilibrium remains intact."}],"nearest_rivals":["Full-field resurfacing, which treats the aggregate surface rather than confirmed local tails beneath a valid fieldwide mean","Footwear or cutting-technique coaching, which changes athlete behavior rather than the surface's mechanical shear properties","Aggregate-certification correction, which assumes the fieldwide indicator itself is invalid rather than valid but insufficient for local claims","A measurement-only traction map, which characterizes variation without physically correcting consequential local outliers"],"negative_tests":{"intervention_falsifier":"The intervention is falsified if approved local treatments do not reproducibly move confirmed tail cells toward the predeclared traction band, the change does not persist through the specified exposure interval, or treatment creates adverse hardness, drainage, seam, or neighboring-cell effects.","problem_falsifier":"The problem is undermined if repeated direction-balanced surveys show a narrow cell distribution consistent with instrument uncertainty, no persistent spatial tails or clusters, and no difference between the fieldwide claim and the condition of individual cells.","risks":["Instrument drift, operator dependence, or moisture differences creating false spatial tails","Treating normal directional anisotropy as a defect","Excess infill or decompaction shifting a low-traction cell into excessive rotational resistance","Surface treatment changing hardness, drainage, ball behavior, seams, or accessibility","Selective measurement after athlete complaints producing confirmation bias","Local repair displacing infill or load into adjacent cells","Field maps being overinterpreted as predictions of athlete injury","Operational pressure to reopen before repeat measurements stabilize"],"strongest_counterevidence":"Existing certification and maintenance protocols may already sample densely enough to detect meaningful local traction variation, while reported slips or high-grip events may be explained primarily by footwear, moisture at the moment of play, or movement technique rather than persistent surface-cell properties."},"next_evidence_step":"Close one field sector and predeclare a 24-cell grid, directional repeats, tester calibration checks, environmental conditions, repeatability limits, local-tail thresholds, approved treatment choices, and reopening criteria. Measure every cell twice in randomized order, repeat candidate tails on a second pass, treat only confirmed outliers, and mechanically retest treated and adjacent cells immediately and after one normal maintenance cycle. Compare repeatability, tail persistence, treatment effect, neighboring-cell displacement, and the area-weighted field indicator; conduct no athlete exposure during this step.","observable_state":"Across repeated surveys under a declared operating regime, the area-weighted mean rotational traction remains inside the field's accepted band, while individual grid cells may show reproducible high- or low-traction tails clustered around goal mouths, cutting lanes, seams, shaded or wet zones, or heavily groomed areas. Each reading is linked to a physical cell, test direction, moisture condition, infill depth, recent exposure, and repeatability result; the fieldwide value supports only a field-level conformance claim.","prior_art_status":"UNSEARCHED","problem":"A synthetic-turf field is treated as mechanically uniform because its valid area-weighted mean rotational traction remains stable and within specification. Local infill migration, compaction, wear, seams, and moisture exposure can nevertheless create persistent high- or low-traction cells. Interpreting fieldwide equilibrium as a property of every contact zone hides localized foot-surface conditions that can alter slipping and rotational resistance during cutting or braking.","proposal_index":2,"remaining_contrastive_claim":"A valid fieldwide traction equilibrium should be retained but bounded: persistent spatial traction tails warrant cell-specific physical surface treatment, while isolated measurement scatter and harmless spatial variation should not trigger blanket resurfacing.","revision_record":{"claim_changes":[],"conceptual_changes":[],"evidence_changes":[],"operational_changes":[],"parent_version":null,"progress_targets_addressed":["Defined a spatial ensemble and explicit fieldwide equilibrium indicator","Specified how cell measurements aggregate and which spatial information is lost","Separated field-level conformance from local contact-zone claims","Mapped heterogeneity by field zone, exposure, direction, and material condition","Selected a physical cell-level intervention independent of P1","Included mechanical confirmation, adjacent-cell monitoring, falsifiers, and reopening safeguards"]},"schema_version":1,"structural_mapping":[{"archetype_element":"Ensemble Frame","domain_realization":"Fixed spatial cells covering one synthetic-turf field under a declared moisture, temperature, and use regime."},{"archetype_element":"Macro Equilibrium Indicator","domain_realization":"Area-weighted mean rotational traction remaining inside the accepted fieldwide band across repeated surveys."},{"archetype_element":"Microstate Variability Profile","domain_realization":"Repeated cell-level traction distributions, tails, directional differences, infill depths, and spatial clusters."},{"archetype_element":"Aggregation Translation Rule","domain_realization":"Eligible cell medians are area-weighted into the fieldwide mean; aggregation discards cell location, tail symmetry, clustering, directionality, and compensating high and low patches."},{"archetype_element":"Level-of-Analysis Boundary","domain_realization":"The mean supports fieldwide conformance only; it does not establish that each foot-contact zone has equivalent slip or rotational resistance."},{"archetype_element":"Heterogeneity Relevance Test","domain_realization":"A cell becomes treatment-relevant only when repeated calibrated measurements establish a persistent tail beyond measurement uncertainty and approved local tolerance."},{"archetype_element":"Subgroup and Locality Map","domain_realization":"Cells are grouped by goal mouth, central cutting lane, sideline, seam proximity, use intensity, shade or moisture exposure, and prior treatment."},{"archetype_element":"Multi-Level Feedback Design","domain_realization":"Local repairs are followed by cell, adjacent-cell, and fieldwide retesting so improvement at one scale cannot conceal degradation at another."},{"archetype_element":"Representative Case Guardrail","domain_realization":"Neither one athlete complaint nor one extreme tester reading substitutes for the repeated spatial distribution."}],"substrate_contract":{"counterfactual_independence":"If all software, algorithms, databases, dashboards, and digital control are removed, staff can record calibrated tester readings on a paper grid, select confirmed cells with predeclared physical thresholds, and perform the same approved material treatment. The essential effect persists because decompaction, infill redistribution, and element replacement directly alter the surface's mechanical shear properties.","forbidden_channel_audit":"Governance supplies authorization and closure rules, and optional software may store or visualize readings, but neither produces the traction change. Training, incentives, models, information routing, and automated control are not required for the intervention's essential effect; no physical noun is standing in for a policy or computational intervention.","primary_allowed_process":"PHYSICAL_MATERIAL"},"title":"Cell-Targeted Mechanical Traction Repair","version":0},"schema_version":1}