{"actors":["Composite bracket design engineer","Finite-element simulation analyst","Materials-test engineer","Independent verification engineer","Configuration-record custodian","Airframe design authority"],"affected_objective":"Keep a mass-reduction claim for a load-bearing composite bracket from becoming tooling- or release-ready merely because one favorable configuration emerged from a broad simulation and analysis search.","arm":"COMMON_P1","authority_safety":{"authorized_first_step":"The verification engineer may run the gate in shadow mode on one not-yet-released bracket study, register the search family, seal the confirmation inputs, and report status differences without changing the approved design.","decision_authority":"Only the airframe design authority may promote the bracket claim to release-ready after independent verification; analysts may create exploratory candidates but may not promote their status.","excluded_actions":["Automatic tooling, procurement, or release from an exploratory result","Changing confirmation criteria after held-out inputs are opened","Deleting failed, null, superseded, or inconvenient analysis runs","Using exploratory status as evidence of engineer misconduct","Substituting multiplicity control for material qualification, hazard analysis, or engineering judgment"],"halt_rollback":"If the registry is incomplete, held-out inputs are exposed, or confirmation criteria change after sealing, stop the pilot, preserve the audit trail, return the candidate to exploratory status, and leave the currently approved bracket design unchanged."},"baseline":"A conventional design review presents the selected bracket geometry, governing load case, and reported reserve factor, while discarded geometries, alternate mesh settings, material models, filters, and inspected load combinations may remain scattered across analyst files and do not affect the selected result's evidence status.","candidate_id":"multiple_testing_discipline__engineering_design__COMMON_P1","causal_chain":["Engineers search many geometries, laminate schedules, mesh settings, material models, exclusion rules, and load combinations to find a lighter bracket that appears to satisfy the reserve-factor requirement.","Each attempted combination creates another opportunity for modeling noise or an analysis choice to produce an attractive apparent pass.","The review package foregrounds the selected pass while the size and flexibility of the preceding search remain unavailable to reviewers.","Reviewers interpret the selected result as though it came from a single planned verification analysis.","A model-sensitive or chance-favored candidate can therefore receive more credibility than its discovery path warrants.","The intervention exposes the complete claim family and attempted-look inventory, then assigns the selected candidate exploratory status.","A sealed confirmation stage applies fixed acceptance criteria to inputs and evidence not used to select the candidate.","Only a candidate that passes that stage can be considered by the design authority for tooling or release, while all attempts and status changes remain reviewable."],"cell_id":"multiple_testing_discipline__engineering_design","consequence":"A search-favored lightweight bracket could advance into tooling or integration before its structural claim has independent support, creating possible redesign, schedule disruption, wasted fabrication, or structural-safety exposure if the apparent margin does not persist.","diversity_from_prior_proposals":"Not assessed against prior proposals because runtime isolation prohibits inspecting them; this candidate is specifically instantiated as an evidentiary promotion gate for a searched composite-bracket design.","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","intervention":"Install a Bracket Evidence Promotion Gate. Before exploration, register one claim family covering every bracket configuration, laminate schedule, load case, material model, mesh rule, exclusion rule, response metric, and decision threshold that could support the mass-reduction claim. Automatically append every run and analytic choice to an immutable discovery ledger. Because a false structural pass is consequential, label any design selected from the sweep as exploratory regardless of its nominal margin. Before viewing confirmation evidence, freeze the candidate, model version, acceptance metrics, failure thresholds, and permitted exclusions. An independent verifier then evaluates the candidate using sealed material-batch data and load sequences not used during selection. Only a result meeting the frozen confirmation rule may be labeled confirmed and submitted to the design authority; otherwise it is rejected or returned for a newly registered exploration cycle. Preserve the full ledger and every status transition with the design record.","mechanism_mapping":[{"counterfactual_removal":"Without the registry, reviewers cannot reconstruct how many configurations or analytic choices created opportunities for the selected pass.","mechanism_slug":"claim_registry","role":"Records the defined claim family, every attempted look, owners, timestamps, and the status of each bracket claim."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without the report, a result that depends on one favorable mesh, material model, or exclusion rule can appear robust.","mechanism_slug":"multiverse_analysis_report","role":"Shows the selected candidate across all registered permissible analysis paths and retains unfavorable paths in the review package."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without advance commitment, engineers could revise metrics, thresholds, or exclusions after learning the confirmation result.","mechanism_slug":"preregistration","role":"Freezes the candidate and confirmatory acceptance logic before sealed evidence is opened."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without untouched evidence, the same data and load cases used to discover the bracket could also be used to declare it confirmed.","mechanism_slug":"holdout_validation","role":"Reserves material-batch observations and load sequences for confirmation after design selection."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without a mandatory follow-up, an exploratory pass could still move directly into a consequential release decision.","mechanism_slug":"confirmatory_follow_up","role":"Creates the required independent verification stage between exploratory selection and release eligibility."}],"nearest_rivals":["Design of experiments: organizes or reduces the configuration search but does not by itself stop the best observed configuration from being treated as independently confirmed.","Reliability-based design optimization: incorporates uncertainty into optimization but can still overfit repeatedly reused models, datasets, and load cases.","Configuration management: preserves versions and intended state but does not necessarily define the claim family or change credibility after many attempted analyses.","Independent verification and validation: checks a design independently, but without sealed inputs and frozen criteria it can be influenced by the exploratory search and become another attempted look."],"negative_tests":{"intervention_falsifier":"In the shadow pilot, the intervention is undermined if the ledger cannot reconstruct the actual search, the supposedly held-out evidence was used during selection, or the gate permits the same candidate to receive confirmed status under materially different post hoc criteria.","problem_falsifier":"The multiplicity diagnosis is falsified if the bracket claim arose from one genuinely pre-specified configuration, outcome, load population, model, and analysis path with no inspected alternatives; a single-claim verification or measurement problem would then be closer.","risks":["Registry avoidance through unlogged local analyses","Administrative burden that encourages nominal rather than complete compliance","Confirmation contamination through informal disclosure of sealed inputs","Overly strict gating that discards useful exploratory candidates","False confidence if measurement bias, confounding, invalid material models, or trivial margins remain unexamined","Status laundering in which exploratory findings are described as release-ready outside the formal review"],"strongest_counterevidence":"A complete audit showing that the promoted design and acceptance analysis were fixed before any result was observed, followed by untouched independent physical verification, would indicate that hidden multiple searching is not the operative credibility problem in that case."},"next_evidence_step":"Run one bounded shadow pilot on a single not-yet-released composite-bracket study: for one design cycle, inventory all existing and new analysis runs, freeze one promoted candidate and its acceptance rule, seal one unused material batch and load-sequence set under the verification engineer, conduct the independent check, and compare the candidate's baseline review status with its gate-assigned status. Do not alter tooling or release decisions during the pilot.","observable_state":"For the pilot bracket, reviewers can inspect a timestamped ledger containing the registered family, hashes of every simulation input and output, all geometries and analysis choices tried, null and failed results, the selected candidate's exploratory label, a seal record for unused confirmation inputs, frozen acceptance criteria, the independent verification result, and the final status transition.","prior_art_status":"UNSEARCHED","problem":"During lightweight composite-bracket development, an engineering team may sweep many geometries, laminate schedules, material-property assumptions, mesh rules, load combinations, response metrics, and exclusion choices, then present the most favorable passing configuration as if it were the result of one planned verification. The hidden opportunity set makes that selected structural-margin result easier to obtain by noise or analytic flexibility, yet it may guide tooling and release.","proposal_index":1,"remaining_contrastive_claim":"The candidate changes a design claim's release eligibility according to the full search path that produced it: unlike search optimization, configuration archiving, or ordinary verification alone, it keeps all attempted alternatives visible, labels the selected result as exploratory, and requires sealed confirmation before promotion.","revision_record":{"claim_changes":["Initial version states a bounded claim about evidentiary promotion of a searched bracket design without asserting novelty, prevalence, demand, or effect size."],"conceptual_changes":["Initial synthesis maps multiple-testing discipline onto configuration and analysis searches in structural engineering rather than treating a nominal simulation pass as a single test."],"evidence_changes":["No external evidence or prior-art search was used; falsifiers and a shadow pilot define the initial evidence boundary."],"operational_changes":["Initial version assigns registration, evidence custody, confirmation, promotion, halt, and rollback responsibilities."],"parent_version":null,"progress_targets_addressed":["Concrete domain problem","Observable discovery history","Consequential decision gate","Structural and mechanism fidelity","Bounded reversible evidence step"]},"schema_version":1,"structural_mapping":[{"archetype_element":"Define the claim family","domain_realization":"Register all bracket geometries, laminate schedules, load cases, material models, mesh rules, exclusions, metrics, thresholds, and review decisions capable of supporting the same mass-reduction claim."},{"archetype_element":"Inventory attempted looks","domain_realization":"Capture every simulation, filter, rerun, model revision, discarded configuration, and analyst-inspected view in the design ledger."},{"archetype_element":"Set the error-risk policy","domain_realization":"Treat an unsupported structural pass as sufficiently consequential that a sweep-selected design cannot receive release-ready status from exploratory evidence alone."},{"archetype_element":"Apply a multiplicity-aware rule","domain_realization":"Require a frozen candidate and acceptance plan followed by independent evaluation on sealed material and load evidence before promotion."},{"archetype_element":"Label claim status","domain_realization":"Mark each bracket claim as exploratory, awaiting confirmation, confirmed, rejected, or invalidated."},{"archetype_element":"Confirm before costly action","domain_realization":"Block tooling and release consideration until the independent sealed-evidence check is complete and the design authority reviews it."},{"archetype_element":"Preserve the discovery record","domain_realization":"Attach the complete run ledger, unfavorable results, frozen protocol, seal history, confirmation outcome, and status transitions to the controlled design record."}],"title":"Bracket Evidence Promotion Gate","version":0}