{"abstention_reason":null,"arm":"SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","candidate_id":"multiple_testing_discipline__sport_science__SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","cell_id":"multiple_testing_discipline__sport_science","decision":"PROPOSAL","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","proposal":{"actors":["Sport-surface biomechanist who operates the traction and impact rigs","Equipment-safety lead who assigns evidentiary status","Facilities or procurement lead considering a turf–infill–stud system","Independent technician who holds and opens the confirmation cassette","Athletes who could later train or compete on the selected system"],"affected_objective":"Select a turf–infill–stud configuration whose claimed traction and impact-safety advantages survive the full mechanical screening family and an independent material confirmation test before procurement or athlete exposure.","arm":"SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","authority_safety":{"authorized_first_step":"The equipment-safety lead may commission one bench-only feasibility run using surplus turf, infill, and stud materials; the run may measure seal integrity, specimen equivalence, rig repeatability, and reconstruction completeness but may not influence procurement or athlete use.","decision_authority":"The equipment-safety lead assigns claim status and authorizes confirmation-cassette opening; the facilities or procurement lead retains purchasing authority but may not cite an exploratory result as confirmed, and no athlete exposure is authorized during the pilot.","excluded_actions":["Allowing athletes to run, cut, land, or train on candidate surfaces during the pilot","Purchasing, installing, approving, or rejecting a playing surface from feasibility results","Replacing established surface-safety inspections or governing-body requirements","Opening, probing, conditioning, or measuring confirmation specimens before a nominee and test settings are frozen","Changing specimen composition, conditioning, rig settings, endpoints, or acceptance limits after viewing confirmation results"],"halt_rollback":"Stop the run if a confirmation seal is broken early, specimen identities become unblinded, discovery and confirmation coupons are not materially comparable, the rig damages its guards or fixtures, or attempted tests cannot be reconstructed. Quarantine the affected cassettes, invalidate their evidentiary status, and return to the existing procurement process; no installed surface or athlete-facing decision requires reversal."},"baseline":"In the inferred baseline, a sport facility tests many combinations of turf fiber, infill depth, stud pattern, loading direction, wetness, temperature, wear state, traction endpoint, and impact endpoint. Staff may highlight the configuration with the best-looking result while retaining neither a complete physical inventory of tested combinations nor untouched replicate material, so the selected advantage is interpreted with a single-comparison standard.","candidate_id":"multiple_testing_discipline__sport_science__SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","causal_chain":["Testing many turf, infill, stud, conditioning, direction, and endpoint combinations creates many opportunities for an extreme mechanical reading to occur by chance or specimen variability.","Selecting the most favorable reading without the complete opportunity set makes that configuration appear more exceptional than it is.","A false winner can be procured as a safer surface even though its apparent advantage is a search artifact.","The intervention fabricates matched discovery and confirmation specimens for every eligible configuration and places them in coordinate-indexed cassettes before testing begins.","The discovery cassette exposes the entire defined matrix to the same instrumented traction and impact sequence, while irreversible witness marks make omitted, repeated, and substituted specimens physically detectable.","A familywise screening limit interprets each discovery reading against the number of eligible comparisons; at most one qualifying configuration may become the frozen nominee.","The nominee is then tested on separately manufactured, sealed specimens whose material response could not have influenced discovery choices.","Only agreement with the prespecified confirmation endpoint and tolerance changes the claim from exploratory to confirmed, reducing the chance that a mechanically noisy winner reaches procurement."],"cell_id":"multiple_testing_discipline__sport_science","consequence":"A chance-selected surface–stud combination may be installed at substantial cost and expose athletes to unexpectedly high rotational traction, poor impact attenuation, or inconsistent footing.","diversity_from_prior_proposals":"P1 governs athlete-specific workload claims derived from recurring GPS, force-plate, wellness, and training-response data. This opportunity instead addresses capital equipment selection and derives its essential effect from destructive mechanical testing of matched surface specimens plus physical sequestration of an independent confirmation bank; it neither repairs nor extends P1's athlete-monitoring gate.","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","intervention":"Use Sealed Twin-Bank Surface–Stud Test Cassettes for pre-procurement screening. Before any measurements, fabricate matched turf–infill–stud coupons for every eligible configuration and randomly allocate material twins to a discovery cassette and an opaque, tamper-evident confirmation cassette. Each coordinate fixes the configuration, conditioning state, loading direction, endpoint, and replicate count; unused slots remain visible. The discovery cassette is processed through an instrumented linear-traction, rotational-traction, and impact-attenuation fixture whose punch pins leave irreversible witness marks on every tested position. Interpret the complete discovery matrix with a predeclared familywise limit and permit at most one qualifying nominee. Freeze that nominee, its primary endpoint, rig settings, direction, conditioning, tolerance, and decision rule before an independent technician opens only its matching confirmation compartment. The configuration is confirmed only if fresh coupons satisfy the fixed mechanical criterion; otherwise it is rejected and the discovery matrix remains exploratory.","mechanism_mapping":[{"counterfactual_removal":"Without matched specimens physically sealed before discovery, the selected configuration could be certified using reused, selectively replaced, or discovery-exposed material.","mechanism_slug":"holdout_validation","role":"The opaque confirmation cassette preserves fresh material twins that cannot contribute measurements to the initial search."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without the stricter family-level limit, each mechanical reading would retain a single-comparison threshold despite the large configuration matrix.","mechanism_slug":"bonferroni_like_correction","role":"A predeclared familywise limit scales the discovery criterion to the number of eligible configuration–condition–endpoint comparisons."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without fixed coordinates and witness marks, operators could omit unfavorable configurations, repeat favorable conditions, or conceal the true number of mechanical looks.","mechanism_slug":"claim_registry","role":"The physical slot matrix and irreversible test marks provide a specimen-level inventory of planned, completed, unused, repeated, and damaged comparisons."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without freezing the nominee and test conditions before breaking the seal, confirmation settings could be changed to favor the discovery winner.","mechanism_slug":"preregistration","role":"The nominee, primary endpoint, fixture settings, conditioning state, tolerance, and decision criterion are fixed before confirmation material is exposed."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without a fresh targeted mechanical test, the most extreme discovery reading could flow directly into a costly surface-selection decision.","mechanism_slug":"confirmatory_follow_up","role":"A separately manufactured material bank must reproduce the nominated performance under the fixed protocol before procurement may treat the advantage as confirmed."}],"nearest_rivals":["Ordinary equipment qualification is insufficient if it evaluates each result separately after searching a large configuration matrix.","A larger-sample or higher-power design could improve precision but would not account for selecting the best result among many configurations and endpoints.","Effect-size reporting could describe the winning configuration's apparent advantage but would not establish that it survived the search opportunity set.","Calibration of the traction and impact rigs addresses measurement accuracy, whereas this proposal addresses false selection across many valid measurements.","A reproducibility protocol could repeat the chosen test but would not ensure that untouched material was sequestered before the winner was selected."],"negative_tests":{"intervention_falsifier":"The intervention is falsified if seal inspection, witness marks, mass balance, or independent reconstruction cannot distinguish untouched confirmation coupons from discovery-exposed or substituted material, or if repeated twin-bank trials select false winners no less often than the baseline under known-null configurations.","problem_falsifier":"The multiplicity problem is absent if procurement records show one prospectively specified configuration, conditioning state, loading direction, endpoint, and acceptance test, with no alternative comparison capable of supporting the same selection decision.","risks":["Manufacturing variation may make nominally matched discovery and confirmation coupons materially unequal.","Cassette coordinates or witness pins may be misaligned, creating false records of completed tests.","Operators may narrow the comparison family after seeing early mechanical readings.","Strict familywise control may reject genuinely superior configurations.","Testing only one confirmation nominee may miss a useful second-ranked configuration.","Bench traction and impact responses may not predict athlete biomechanics or injury risk in field conditions.","Opening or conditioning errors may invalidate scarce confirmation material.","A confirmed mechanical difference may still be too small, impractical, or unsafe for field adoption."],"strongest_counterevidence":"The strongest counterevidence would be a complete historical audit showing that surface-selection decisions already use prospectively fixed configuration families, familywise interpretation, mechanically untouched replicate materials, and blinded confirmation before procurement, with no decay of selected advantages on fresh specimens."},"next_evidence_step":"Conduct a bench-only null challenge using surplus materials engineered to have no meaningful between-configuration difference. Populate both cassettes, verify masses and seals, run the full discovery matrix, freeze any qualifying nominee, and have an independent technician perform the matching confirmation test. Compare false-winner promotion, missed or repeated specimens, seal breaches, rig repeatability, reconstruction accuracy, and technician time against the current bench workflow; expose no athletes and make no purchasing decision.","observable_state":"The bench shows two coordinate-matched specimen cassettes; intact numbered seals on the confirmation bank; recorded coupon masses and material lots; fixed conditioning chambers; instrument traces for linear traction, rotational traction, and impact attenuation; irreversible punch marks at tested discovery positions; visible unused or damaged slots; a frozen nominee sheet timestamped before opening; and post-test confirmation readings linked to the corresponding material coordinates.","prior_art_status":"UNSEARCHED","problem":"During selection of a playing surface or stud system, a sport-science laboratory may screen many turf fibers, infill depths, stud patterns, loading directions, moisture states, temperatures, wear conditions, and mechanical endpoints, then promote the most favorable traction or impact result as evidence of superior safety. Because the same specimens and flexible test matrix supplied many chances to produce a winner, the selected configuration can receive procurement-ready status without evidence that accounts for the full search.","proposal_index":2,"remaining_contrastive_claim":"The irreducible claim is that a surface–stud configuration selected from a broad mechanical test matrix should not be called safer until its discovery threshold reflects the entire matrix and its nominated advantage reappears in physically sequestered, independently manufactured material that could not influence selection.","revision_record":{"claim_changes":[],"conceptual_changes":[],"evidence_changes":[],"operational_changes":[],"parent_version":null,"progress_targets_addressed":["Created a materially independent sport-science problem centered on surface and equipment procurement","Made measurement instrumentation and fresh physical specimens the essential causal substrate","Mapped the full multiple-testing sequence from claim-family definition through confirmation","Specified a reversible bench-only evidence step with no athlete exposure","Defined physical integrity checks and falsifiers for the proposed mechanism"]},"schema_version":1,"structural_mapping":[{"archetype_element":"Define the claim family","domain_realization":"The cassette matrix includes every eligible turf–infill–stud configuration, conditioning state, loading direction, mechanical endpoint, and replicate capable of supporting the procurement decision."},{"archetype_element":"Inventory attempted looks","domain_realization":"Coordinate occupancy, instrument traces, coupon mass balance, and irreversible witness marks expose completed, repeated, omitted, damaged, and unused tests."},{"archetype_element":"Set the error-risk policy","domain_realization":"Because installing a false safety winner is costly and athlete-facing, the screen uses familywise false-positive control and permits at most one nominee per cassette."},{"archetype_element":"Apply a multiplicity-aware rule","domain_realization":"Discovery readings must cross a family-size-adjusted limit before any configuration may enter the confirmation stage."},{"archetype_element":"Label claim status","domain_realization":"Each configuration is marked untested, exploratory, familywise-qualified nominee, confirmed, or rejected; mechanical damage alone never implies confirmation."},{"archetype_element":"Confirm before costly action","domain_realization":"The frozen nominee must satisfy its prespecified criterion on fresh coupons from the sealed material bank before procurement treats the advantage as confirmed."},{"archetype_element":"Preserve the discovery record","domain_realization":"The cassettes, seals, witness marks, material-lot records, instrument traces, frozen test sheet, and confirmation result preserve the opportunity set and status history."}],"substrate_contract":{"counterfactual_independence":"If software, databases, workflow gates, labels, and organizational rules are removed, the matched material banks, opaque tamper-evident seal, coordinate fixture, destructive witness marks, and instrumented traction/impact tests still create a physically untouched confirmation sample and observable evidence of which specimens were tested. Paper calculations and records can support interpretation without supplying that material independence.","forbidden_channel_audit":"Governance assigns authority, a ledger may mirror cassette coordinates, and software may calculate the familywise limit or store traces, but none creates the confirmatory evidence. No training, incentive, routing, algorithm, model, database, or digital controller substitutes for fresh sealed coupons undergoing a second mechanical measurement; opening the cassette without testing the material produces no claimed effect.","primary_allowed_process":"MEASUREMENT_INSTRUMENTATION"},"title":"Sealed Twin-Bank Surface–Stud Test Cassettes","version":0},"schema_version":1}