{"abstention_reason":null,"arm":"SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","candidate_id":"predictive_precommitment_correction__literature_literary_theory__SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","cell_id":"predictive_precommitment_correction__literature_literary_theory","decision":"PROPOSAL","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","proposal":{"actors":["Manuscript conservator responsible for the physical witness","Literary curator or textual scholar who identifies evidentiary marks that must remain distinguishable","Exhibition preparator or special-collections technician who installs illumination and filters","Collection custodian who authorizes exposure of the original"],"affected_objective":"Permit study or exhibition of a literary manuscript while preserving the visible distinctions among inks, revisions, cancellations, marginalia, and paper features on which textual and genetic interpretation depends.","arm":"SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","authority_safety":{"authorized_first_step":"The conservator may characterize candidate lamps, filters, dosimeters, and period-analog inked-paper coupons on an optical bench; the first step permits no accelerated exposure, sampling, treatment, or new illumination of an original manuscript.","decision_authority":"The collection custodian authorizes original-witness exposure on the conservator's recommendation, while the literary curator identifies interpretation-bearing marks whose contrast tolerances cannot be traded away.","excluded_actions":["Removing fibers, ink, or paper from an original witness","Microfade-testing an original without separate object-specific conservation approval","Exposing textual strokes, revisions, marginalia, or other interpretation-bearing marks to an accelerated test beam","Allowing an extrapolation or automated controller to authorize exposure","Raising illumination above the repository's independent hard ceiling","Treating a visually acceptable page as evidence that chemical change has not occurred","Claiming that physical preservation establishes a preferred interpretation of the text"],"halt_rollback":"Immediately shutter illumination if irradiance, cumulative dose, temperature, or reference-target change exceeds its limit. Return removable filters, shutters, apertures, and the display schedule to the stricter baseline configuration. Because fading cannot be reversed, all initial validation occurs on sacrificial coupons and any original is removed from exposure rather than treated to conceal loss."},"baseline":"The repository applies a conservative collection-wide lux limit and rotation schedule based on material category, visual inspection, and accumulated staff experience, without measuring the particular lamp-filter-material response or translating it into an object-specific pre-exposure dose correction.","candidate_id":"predictive_precommitment_correction__literature_literary_theory__SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","causal_chain":["A conservator and textual scholar identify the manuscript features whose spectral contrast carries literary evidence and specify the maximum acceptable change in those features.","The proposed lamp, distance, filter stack, aperture, daily viewing time, and exhibition duration define an intended spectral-energy dose before the display is installed.","An optical test bench exposes approved sacrificial or validated reference coupons through candidate configurations while a spectrometer records reflectance and contrast change against delivered energy.","Measured response curves estimate whether the intended cumulative dose would cross the predefined contrast-loss envelope, with uncertainty enlarged for mismatch between coupons and the original.","If the predicted margin is inadequate, the preparator physically reduces or redistributes exposure by changing filter transmission, lamp distance, aperture, lux, daily duration, total duration, or manuscript rotation.","The original remains shuttered until the conservator and custodian accept the corrected physical configuration or document that uncertainty requires the stricter baseline.","During any authorized display, a co-located physical dosimeter integrates delivered exposure and reference targets reveal spectral drift before the manuscript's endpoint is approached.","Post-display reflectance measurements and dosimeter totals are compared with the response forecast, allowing later configurations to be recalibrated or the object-specific method to be abandoned."],"cell_id":"predictive_precommitment_correction__literature_literary_theory","consequence":"Light-induced fading and contrast loss are cumulative and effectively irreversible. If distinct revision inks or faint cancellations converge after exposure, later feedback cannot restore the physical differences on which transcription, dating, and genetic interpretation relied.","diversity_from_prior_proposals":"P1 addresses interpretive foreclosure caused by editorial paratext and uses reader-response forecasts to revise wording, placement, and sequence. This proposal addresses irreversible photochemical loss in a manuscript witness and uses optical measurements to pre-adjust spectral energy, exposure geometry, and duration; its problem, intervention, adjustable variables, and material causal path are independent of P1.","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","intervention":"Install a material-response exposure preflight before committing a literary manuscript to study-room or exhibition illumination. Bench-test the proposed lamp and removable filter configurations on approved sacrificial or validated reference coupons, measure wavelength-specific reflectance and contrast change as delivered energy accumulates, and extrapolate a conservative dose-to-threshold envelope for the manuscript's interpretation-bearing features. Before the original is illuminated, physically pre-correct the configuration through filter transmission, lamp distance, aperture, lux, daily exposure, total duration, or rotation. Use co-located dosimeters and repeat reflectance measurements to compare realized exposure with the forecast and recalibrate or halt future display.","mechanism_mapping":[{"counterfactual_removal":"Without the accelerated optical response measurement, the object-specific prediction disappears and only a generic material-class limit remains.","mechanism_slug":"leading_indicator_trigger_rule","role":"Early wavelength-specific reflectance change under a measured small dose serves as a physical leading indicator of later contrast loss and triggers a stricter configuration before full exposure."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without testing candidate lamp-filter-dose configurations before illuminating the witness, there is no upstream comparison of their material consequences and no basis for selecting a corrected physical configuration.","mechanism_slug":"precommitment_what_if_simulation","role":"Sacrificial coupons on the optical bench physically instantiate alternative exposure configurations and preview their photochemical consequences."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without comparing integrated dose and post-display reflectance with the predicted response, lamp drift, coupon mismatch, and extrapolation error could persist across later displays.","mechanism_slug":"forecast_error_backtest","role":"Dosimeter totals and repeated spectral measurements form a material calibration trace for checking predicted versus realized change."}],"nearest_rivals":["A blanket lux limit supplies a robust collection-wide ceiling but does not measure the proposed lamp-filter-material interaction or convert an object-specific response forecast into a pre-exposure correction.","Routine condition photography documents appearance before and after display but usually detects realized change after some irreversible dose has already been delivered.","Digitization reduces repeated handling and later viewing exposure, but the capture event still requires illumination and does not itself predict or pre-correct the manuscript's spectral response.","Preventive-conservation monitoring records temperature, humidity, or ambient light; it becomes predictive precommitment correction only when a measured material-response curve changes the physical exposure configuration before commitment."],"negative_tests":{"intervention_falsifier":"Across blinded coupon trials, response-curve-guided configurations do not predict held-out spectral or contrast change more accurately than the repository's conservative fixed limit, or prediction intervals fail to contain repeated outcomes often enough to support a safe pre-correction.","problem_falsifier":"The proposed exposure produces no measurable or literature-relevant change within a deliberately conservative uncertainty bound, or all interpretation-bearing information is already captured in an accepted non-exposing surrogate so that illuminating the original supplies no material scholarly benefit.","risks":["Sacrificial coupons may not reproduce the original paper, ink recipe, aging history, or prior light exposure.","Accelerated exposure may activate degradation pathways unlike those operating at exhibition intensity.","Averaged color change may conceal loss of a faint but interpretation-bearing stroke.","Even microscopic testing of an original can consume a finite and irreversible exposure budget.","Instrument precision may create false confidence in extrapolation across long durations.","Optimizing to a measured threshold may encourage more exposure than a simple conservative ceiling.","Filters can alter perceived color relationships and thereby affect scholarly observation even while reducing damage.","Repeated reflectance measurement can itself add small exposure unless its dose is bounded."],"strongest_counterevidence":"Material heterogeneity and unknown aging history may make surrogate response curves too weakly transferable to a unique manuscript; if uncertainty forces every recommendation back to the repository's existing conservative limit, the object-specific predictive layer adds measurement burden without improving the initial exposure decision."},"next_evidence_step":"On an optical bench, prepare at least three independently made period-analog paper-and-ink coupon sets containing dark ink, faded ink, overwriting, and cancellation contrasts. Measure the spectrum and irradiance of one proposed lamp under the baseline and two removable filter configurations, expose only the coupons at bounded doses, and preregister a response curve from part of each set. Test whether it predicts held-out coupons' wavelength-specific contrast change and selects a configuration closer to the preservation envelope than the fixed-limit baseline. Do not illuminate or sample an original manuscript.","observable_state":"Before commitment, observers can measure the lamp spectrum, irradiance, filter transmission, geometry, coupon reflectance spectra, local contrast among simulated textual layers, delivered test energy, response slope, extrapolated dose-to-threshold, uncertainty allowance, proposed daily and cumulative dose, and the chosen physical correction. During and after authorized display, dosimeter totals, shutter time, reference-target spectra, manuscript reflectance at approved measurement sites, threshold crossings, and forecast error remain observable.","prior_art_status":"UNSEARCHED","problem":"Autograph manuscripts, drafts, and annotated copies can preserve faint cancellations, ink changes, overwriting, and marginalia that textual scholars use to reconstruct composition and revision. A repository must choose an illumination spectrum, intensity, geometry, and duration before making a witness available for display or sustained examination. Generic limits may be either insufficiently protective or so blunt that access is unnecessarily curtailed, while discovering object-specific fading after exposure is too late because the lost contrast is irreversible.","proposal_index":2,"remaining_contrastive_claim":"The contrastive claim is that a measured physical response to a small, controlled energy dose can forecast interpretation-relevant contrast loss and select a safer lamp-filter-time configuration before the original witness is exposed; generic limits, post-exposure photography, and environmental logging omit either the material consequence preview or its conversion into a pre-correction.","revision_record":{"claim_changes":["Initial version makes no claim of novelty, prevalence, demand, or preservation effect size.","Predictions are explicitly limited by coupon-to-original transfer uncertainty and independent repository ceilings."],"conceptual_changes":["Initial version maps predictive precommitment correction to irreversible photochemical loss of literary-manuscript evidence rather than reader interpretation or editorial paratext."],"evidence_changes":["No external evidence was consulted; prior art remains unsearched."],"operational_changes":["The first test is restricted to sacrificial period-analog coupons, one lamp, and three configurations, with no exposure or sampling of an original witness."],"parent_version":null,"progress_targets_addressed":["Materially independent problem and intervention relative to P1","Measurement-based preview before an irreversible commitment point","Physical adjustable variables and conservative uncertainty boundary","Post-exposure calibration trace","Object authority, exposure safeguards, falsifiers, and bounded first test"]},"schema_version":1,"structural_mapping":[{"archetype_element":"Commitment point after which correction is expensive or impossible","domain_realization":"Opening the shutter or beginning sustained illumination of a unique literary witness, after which photochemical change cannot be undone."},{"archetype_element":"Intended action and target state","domain_realization":"Deliver enough light for examination or exhibition while keeping spectral and local-contrast change in interpretation-bearing marks below a predefined conservative envelope."},{"archetype_element":"Predictive consequence model upstream of commitment","domain_realization":"A measured energy-response curve from approved coupons under the proposed lamp and filters estimates contrast change before the original is illuminated."},{"archetype_element":"Context-state input","domain_realization":"Lamp spectrum, irradiance, filter transmission, distance, aperture, expected shutter time, material class, prior exposure knowledge, and coupon-to-original mismatch."},{"archetype_element":"Predicted gap signal with uncertainty","domain_realization":"The difference between forecasted cumulative contrast loss and the allowable change, expanded by repeatability and transfer-error bounds."},{"archetype_element":"Adjustable control variables","domain_realization":"Physical filter stack, lamp distance, aperture, illuminance, viewing hours, exhibition duration, shutter schedule, and manuscript rotation."},{"archetype_element":"Pre-correction rule","domain_realization":"Select a lower-dose or spectrally attenuated configuration when the upper uncertainty bound approaches the preservation threshold; default to the stricter fixed limit when transfer uncertainty is excessive."},{"archetype_element":"Staged commitment gate and override","domain_realization":"The manuscript remains physically shuttered until the conservator recommends and the collection custodian authorizes a configuration within both the predicted envelope and independent hard ceilings."},{"archetype_element":"Post-action feedback and recalibration","domain_realization":"Integrated dosimeter readings and repeated reflectance measurements are compared with the response forecast to revise transfer margins or discontinue the method."},{"archetype_element":"Safeguards against false confidence and model drift","domain_realization":"Sacrificial validation, protected textual marks, independent hard ceilings, bounded measurement dose, visible uncertainty, physical shutters, and immediate removal from exposure."}],"substrate_contract":{"counterfactual_independence":"Remove software, databases, automated control, committee workflow, and information routing: the spectrometer or comparator still reveals a physical energy-response curve, removable optical filters and geometry still reduce the damaging wavelengths and dose, and a dosimeter still integrates exposure. Manual calculation and a conservator-operated shutter are sufficient for the essential effect.","forbidden_channel_audit":"Governance only assigns custody and safety authority; documentation only preserves traceability; any software may log spectra or fit curves. None generates the preservation effect. The load-bearing chain is photon delivery to a material coupon, instrumental measurement of reflectance change, and physical attenuation or shortening of photon exposure before the original is illuminated.","primary_allowed_process":"MEASUREMENT_INSTRUMENTATION"},"title":"Material-Response Exposure Preflight for Literary Manuscripts","version":0},"schema_version":1}