{"actors":["strength-and-conditioning coach","athlete","sport scientist","team physiotherapist or physician when clinical restrictions apply"],"affected_objective":"Complete the intended high-speed running stimulus while keeping the modeled session exposure within the athlete-specific training envelope established by staff.","arm":"COMMON_P1","authority_safety":{"authorized_first_step":"Run a retrospective, non-decision-making replay on previously completed sprint sessions using de-identified records; do not alter training or clinical restrictions.","decision_authority":"The coach retains training-plan authority, the athlete may stop or decline any repetition, and qualified clinical staff retain sole authority over medical restrictions and return-to-sport clearance.","excluded_actions":["autonomous diagnosis or injury-risk clearance","overriding athlete-reported symptoms or a stop request","relaxing clinician-set restrictions","automatically increasing sprint intensity because the forecast appears favorable","using the score for selection, discipline, or contract decisions"],"halt_rollback":"Keep the model advisory and revert to the existing planning process if inputs fall outside its validity boundary, uncertainty exceeds the preset gate, forecast errors show directional drift, or staff observe unsafe reliance on its output."},"baseline":"The coach prescribes repetitions, target speeds, recoveries, and sequencing from the standing plan plus warm-up observations; completed exposure is reviewed afterward and subsequent sessions are adjusted by feedback.","candidate_id":"predictive_precommitment_correction__sport_science__COMMON_P1","causal_chain":["A coach drafts a high-speed running session before the athlete starts its committed sprint block.","The system combines the draft prescription with current context: recent workload, standardized readiness measures, surface and footwear, environmental conditions, warm-up sprint data, and applicable staff restrictions.","An athlete-specific model predicts peak-speed attainment, high-speed distance, repetition-to-repetition velocity loss, and uncertainty for the intended session.","The prediction is compared with the session target and the staff-defined exposure and fatigue envelopes.","If a predicted gap crosses a preset threshold, a traceable rule proposes changing an adjustable variable such as repetition count, target speed, recovery duration, drill order, or session timing.","Before the first committed high-speed repetition, the coach accepts, revises, delays, escalates, or rejects the plan; high uncertainty prevents automatic escalation of load.","The completed session records actual speeds, distances, velocity loss, symptoms, stops, and deviations from plan.","Predicted-versus-realized discrepancies are reviewed to recalibrate or demote the model before later use."],"cell_id":"predictive_precommitment_correction__sport_science","consequence":"A session can exceed its intended exposure or fatigue envelope before post-session data reveal the mismatch, leaving fewer safe and practical options than were available before the high-speed block began.","diversity_from_prior_proposals":"Not assessed against prior proposals because runtime isolation prohibits inspecting them; this candidate is specifically organized around a pre-first-sprint prescription gate with post-session forecast calibration.","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","intervention":"Insert an advisory sprint-session consequence model immediately before the first high-speed repetition. It previews the outcome of the planned prescription, displays the predicted gap and uncertainty against staff-set envelopes, converts qualifying gaps into bounded changes to volume, speed, recovery, order, or timing, and requires an accountable coach decision before commitment.","mechanism_mapping":[{"counterfactual_removal":"Without the preview, the planned session reaches the commitment point without an explicit estimate of its likely exposure and fatigue consequences.","mechanism_slug":"precommitment_what_if_simulation","role":"Simulate the intended sprint prescription under the athlete's current measured context before execution."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without the gate, a concerning forecast remains optional information and need not affect the plan before high-speed running begins.","mechanism_slug":"staged_commitment_gate","role":"Require an accept, revise, delay, escalate, or reject decision before the first committed high-speed repetition."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without bounded adjustment rules, the forecast cannot be translated consistently into a modifiable training prescription.","mechanism_slug":"predictive_scheduling_rule","role":"Map threshold-crossing predicted gaps to permitted changes in repetitions, target speed, recovery, sequencing, or timing."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without comparison of forecasts with completed sessions, model drift and systematic error can persist unnoticed.","mechanism_slug":"forecast_error_backtest","role":"Retain predicted and realized session traces for calibration, validity checks, and model demotion."}],"nearest_rivals":["static weekly or session high-speed-distance caps that do not preview the specific prescription in current context","post-session GPS and timing review that adjusts only later training","coach-only warm-up judgment without an explicit predicted consequence, uncertainty band, or calibration trace","within-session autoregulation that waits for realized velocity loss before changing remaining repetitions"],"negative_tests":{"intervention_falsifier":"In a preregistered retrospective replay, the gated model fails to improve prespecified forecast calibration or prescription-envelope classification over the baseline rule, or its proposed pre-corrections would not have been actionable before the first high-speed repetition.","problem_falsifier":"Historical sessions show that relevant envelope mismatches are already detected and cheaply corrected before consequential exposure accumulates, or that pre-session information contains no usable signal beyond the standing plan and warm-up judgment.","risks":["false reassurance may encourage excessive loading","conservative forecast bias may unnecessarily suppress the intended stimulus","sensor error, missing data, or context drift may corrupt predictions","athletes may alter readiness reports if scores affect training access","staff may mistake a population association for an individual causal estimate","the model may shift accountability away from the coach or clinician","repeated adaptations to forecasts may change the data-generating process and degrade calibration"],"strongest_counterevidence":"Current-context forecasts may add no decision-relevant information beyond a simple robust prescription cap plus coach assessment, especially when individual session data are sparse and measurement noise is high."},"next_evidence_step":"Using a fixed cohort of previously completed sprint sessions, preregister input availability, the commitment timestamp, target envelopes, the baseline rule, model form, uncertainty gate, and evaluation metrics; then conduct a silent chronological replay comparing forecast calibration, envelope classification, and the feasibility of proposed pre-corrections without changing athlete training.","observable_state":"Before the first high-speed repetition: the draft prescription, recent workload, standardized readiness inputs, surface, footwear, weather, warm-up sprint measures, staff restrictions, predicted peak speed, predicted high-speed distance, predicted velocity-loss trajectory, uncertainty band, target envelope, and recorded gate decision. Afterward: realized exposure, velocity loss, symptoms, stops, and plan deviations.","prior_art_status":"UNSEARCHED","problem":"A coach must commit an athlete to a high-speed running prescription whose cumulative mechanical and fatigue consequences become harder to undo after the first maximal or near-maximal repetitions. Relevant pre-session and warm-up information exists, but the standing workflow does not explicitly predict whether the intended repetitions, speeds, recoveries, and sequence will land inside the athlete-specific training envelope before commitment.","proposal_index":1,"remaining_contrastive_claim":"The candidate's distinguishing claim is structural: an explicit, uncertainty-aware prediction of the intended session is converted into a bounded prescription change and accountable gate decision before high-speed commitment, rather than relying on static limits, informal judgment, or correction after exposure is realized.","revision_record":{"claim_changes":[],"conceptual_changes":[],"evidence_changes":[],"operational_changes":[],"parent_version":null,"progress_targets_addressed":["initial candidate specification","causal-structure preservation","bounded evidence plan","authority and safeguard definition"]},"schema_version":1,"structural_mapping":[{"archetype_element":"commitment point after which correction is costly or unsafe","domain_realization":"The first maximal or near-maximal repetition of the planned high-speed sprint block."},{"archetype_element":"intended action and adjustable variables","domain_realization":"The planned repetitions, target speeds, recovery intervals, drill order, and session timing."},{"archetype_element":"target state or tolerance envelope","domain_realization":"Staff-defined ranges for intended high-speed exposure, peak-speed attainment, and repetition-to-repetition velocity loss, subject to clinical restrictions."},{"archetype_element":"predictive consequence model with context input","domain_realization":"An athlete-specific forecast using the draft session, recent workload, standardized readiness data, conditions, and warm-up sprint measures."},{"archetype_element":"predicted gap signal and uncertainty","domain_realization":"The modeled difference between predicted session outcomes and target envelopes, accompanied by an uncertainty band and validity flag."},{"archetype_element":"pre-correction rule","domain_realization":"A bounded proposal to reduce or reorder repetitions, alter target speed, extend recovery, delay the session, or escalate review."},{"archetype_element":"gated commitment","domain_realization":"A recorded coach decision before the sprint block, with athlete stop authority and clinician restrictions preserved."},{"archetype_element":"post-action calibration trace","domain_realization":"A linked record of the forecast, approved prescription, actual sprint measures, symptoms, stops, and deviations used for backtesting."}],"title":"Pre-Sprint Prescription Consequence Gate","version":0}