{"actors":["time-trial cyclist","cycling coach","sport scientist or performance analyst","team physician when clinical restrictions apply"],"affected_objective":"Execute a course-specific time-trial pacing plan that reaches the finish while keeping predicted energy expenditure and thermal strain within staff-defined tolerances and preserving the rider's authority to alter effort or stop.","arm":"ORDINARY_DIVERSE_P2","authority_safety":{"authorized_first_step":"Conduct a silent chronological replay on previously completed time trials using only information that was available before each start; do not change racing, training, equipment, or clinical decisions.","decision_authority":"The rider retains final control over effort and may disregard the plan or stop; the coach controls advisory pacing preparation, event officials control rule compliance, and qualified clinical staff retain sole authority over medical restrictions and clearance.","excluded_actions":["autonomous medical diagnosis or competition clearance","overriding symptoms, a rider stop decision, or clinician restrictions","using modeled finishing time for selection, discipline, or contract decisions","recommending equipment or riding positions that violate event rules","automatically raising power targets because the forecast appears favorable","locking the rider into the pre-start plan when observed race conditions differ"],"halt_rollback":"Keep the model advisory and return to the existing planning method when course or weather inputs are unavailable, predictions fall outside the validated context, uncertainty exceeds the preset gate, forecast errors drift directionally, or riders begin treating segment targets as mandatory despite contrary observations."},"baseline":"The rider and coach set an overall power target and informal terrain-specific adjustments from course reconnaissance, prior performances, weather information, and experience; live sensations and power feedback guide corrections during the race, and telemetry is reviewed afterward.","candidate_id":"predictive_precommitment_correction__sport_science__ORDINARY_DIVERSE_P2","causal_chain":["Before the start, the rider and coach draft segment-level power and effort targets for a specific time-trial course.","A course simulation combines the draft pacing plan with elevation, turns, surface, expected wind, rider aerodynamic parameters, recent performance estimates, environmental conditions, and applicable restrictions.","The simulation predicts segment speeds and durations, cumulative energy expenditure, thermal-strain indicators, terminal reserve, and uncertainty under the intended plan.","Those predicted consequences are compared with the desired finish condition and staff-defined energy, thermal, and pacing-tolerance envelopes.","When a predicted gap crosses a preset threshold, a bounded rule redistributes effort among course segments rather than merely changing total planned work.","A recorded pre-start gate requires the rider and coach to accept, revise, delay for updated conditions, escalate, or reject the proposed pacing plan; high uncertainty defaults to the established baseline.","The rider executes the race with full discretion while telemetry records realized power, speed, conditions, symptoms, deviations, and completion state.","Predicted and realized segment trajectories are compared after the event to recalibrate, restrict, or demote the simulation before subsequent use."],"cell_id":"predictive_precommitment_correction__sport_science","consequence":"If early-course effort is poorly allocated, expended energy and lost time cannot be fully recovered after later feedback reveals the mismatch, even though the rider can still reduce or increase subsequent effort.","diversity_from_prior_proposals":"This opportunity concerns irreversible within-competition allocation of effort across terrain and wind before a time-trial start. Its intervention simulates a course-level pacing trajectory and redistributes segment power, rather than governing the exposure of a high-speed training prescription before sprint repetitions.","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","intervention":"Insert an advisory course-and-physiology simulation before the time-trial start. It previews the segment-by-segment consequences of the intended pacing plan, compares predicted finishing condition and uncertainty with explicit tolerances, converts qualifying gaps into bounded redistribution of power targets across course segments, and requires an accountable rider-coach decision before starting.","mechanism_mapping":[{"counterfactual_removal":"Without the course preview, the intended pacing distribution is committed without an explicit estimate of how terrain, wind, and rider state interact across the full race.","mechanism_slug":"digital_twin_preview","role":"Simulate the rider-course interaction and projected segment trajectory before the start."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without a translation rule, a predicted late-race deficit or excessive reserve does not yield a consistent, bounded change to the actionable pacing plan.","mechanism_slug":"predictive_scheduling_rule","role":"Redistribute planned power among course segments when predicted consequences cross preset tolerances."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without the pre-start gate, simulation output can remain informational without an explicit decision about whether the pacing plan should change.","mechanism_slug":"staged_commitment_gate","role":"Record an accept, revise, update, escalate, or reject decision before the rider starts."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without retained forecast-to-telemetry comparisons, systematic errors caused by changing rider state, aerodynamics, weather, or course estimates can remain hidden.","mechanism_slug":"forecast_error_backtest","role":"Compare predicted and realized segment trajectories to recalibrate or demote the model."}],"nearest_rivals":["a constant-power or fixed normalized-power heuristic that does not simulate the specific course and forecast conditions","coach and rider course reconnaissance without an explicit consequence forecast or uncertainty band","live power-meter autoregulation that changes effort only after the race has begun","post-race telemetry analysis used solely to advise a later event"],"negative_tests":{"intervention_falsifier":"In a preregistered chronological replay, the simulation does not improve prespecified calibration of segment time, terminal reserve, or tolerance classification over the baseline planning rule, or its proposed redistributions would not have been feasible before the start.","problem_falsifier":"Historical telemetry indicates that early pacing mismatches impose no persistent constraint on later race execution, or pre-start course, condition, and rider inputs contain no usable information beyond the existing rider-coach plan.","risks":["incorrect wind or aerodynamic inputs may produce misleading segment targets","false precision may cause the rider to ignore sensations or unexpected course conditions","conservative forecasts may leave excessive unused capacity at the finish","aggressive forecasts may encourage unsustainable early effort","physiological estimates may drift across fatigue, illness, acclimation, or equipment changes","riders may distort subjective inputs if forecast outputs influence race assignments","repeated adaptation to model targets may change the relationship between forecasts and realized behavior"],"strongest_counterevidence":"A simple robust pacing heuristic combined with rider experience and live feedback may be as decision-useful as a detailed pre-start simulation when wind, aerodynamics, and day-specific physiological state are uncertain."},"next_evidence_step":"Preregister a chronological silent replay of completed time trials, fixing the pre-start information cutoff, course segmentation, baseline planning rule, model form, uncertainty gate, target envelopes, and evaluation metrics; compare segment-time calibration, terminal-reserve calibration, tolerance classification, and the feasibility of proposed pacing redistributions without affecting competition decisions.","observable_state":"Before the start: the draft segment pacing plan, course profile, turns, surface notes, expected wind and temperature, rider and bicycle parameters, recent performance estimates, restrictions, predicted segment speeds and durations, cumulative energy trajectory, thermal-strain indicator, terminal reserve, uncertainty band, tolerance comparisons, and recorded gate decision. After the finish: realized power, speed, conditions, symptoms, plan deviations, segment times, and completion state.","prior_art_status":"UNSEARCHED","problem":"A time-trial rider must commit to an initial distribution of effort across a course where early energy expenditure and missed speed opportunities cannot be fully recovered later. Course, weather, and rider-state information is available before the start, but the planning workflow does not explicitly predict the full-race consequences of the intended segment pacing and convert the predicted gap into a revised allocation before commitment.","proposal_index":2,"remaining_contrastive_claim":"The distinguishing structural claim is that a pre-start simulation of the intended course-specific pacing trajectory, including uncertainty, is converted into bounded redistribution of segment effort and an explicit commitment decision before irreversible race expenditure begins, rather than relying solely on generic pacing rules, live correction, or post-race review.","revision_record":{"claim_changes":[],"conceptual_changes":[],"evidence_changes":[],"operational_changes":[],"parent_version":null,"progress_targets_addressed":["independent second-opportunity specification","causal-structure preservation","contrastive problem and intervention definition","bounded evidence plan","authority and safeguard definition"]},"schema_version":1,"structural_mapping":[{"archetype_element":"commitment point after which correction is costly or disruptive","domain_realization":"The race start, after which early energy expenditure and missed course opportunities cannot be fully reversed."},{"archetype_element":"intended action and adjustable variables","domain_realization":"The planned distribution of power and effort targets across defined course segments."},{"archetype_element":"target state or tolerance envelope","domain_realization":"A desired finishing condition with staff-defined tolerances for cumulative energy expenditure, thermal strain, terminal reserve, and segment pacing."},{"archetype_element":"predictive consequence model with context input","domain_realization":"A rider-course simulation using terrain, turns, surface, forecast weather, aerodynamic parameters, recent performance estimates, and the draft pacing plan."},{"archetype_element":"predicted gap signal and uncertainty","domain_realization":"The modeled difference between predicted finishing and segment states and their target tolerances, accompanied by uncertainty and validity flags."},{"archetype_element":"pre-correction rule","domain_realization":"A bounded redistribution of power targets among climbs, descents, exposed sections, technical segments, and the finishing segment."},{"archetype_element":"gated commitment","domain_realization":"A documented rider-coach decision before the start, with rider discretion, event rules, and clinical restrictions preserved."},{"archetype_element":"post-action calibration trace","domain_realization":"A linked record of the forecast, approved pacing plan, realized telemetry, actual conditions, symptoms, deviations, and segment outcomes."}],"title":"Pre-Start Time-Trial Pacing Gate","version":0}