{"abstention_reason":null,"arm":"SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","candidate_id":"predictive_precommitment_correction__sport_science__SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","cell_id":"predictive_precommitment_correction__sport_science","decision":"PROPOSAL","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","proposal":{"actors":["time-trial cyclist","bike-fit specialist or sport scientist","coach","team physiotherapist or physician when clinical restrictions apply","cycle mechanic"],"affected_objective":"Sustain the intended time-trial posture and power output while keeping interface pressure, respiratory restriction, joint clearance, and left-right force imbalance within athlete-specific tolerances.","arm":"SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","authority_safety":{"authorized_first_step":"Conduct a low-intensity, noncompetitive feasibility session on the athlete's own bicycle using temporary cockpit settings and pressure, respiratory, and pedal-force instruments; do not finalize equipment or alter clinical restrictions.","decision_authority":"The athlete may stop or reject any position, the mechanic controls safe component installation and torque, the coach controls competition planning, and qualified clinical staff retain sole authority over medical restrictions.","excluded_actions":["diagnosing vascular, neurologic, respiratory, or musculoskeletal conditions from fit measurements","overriding pain, numbness, breathing difficulty, or an athlete stop request","using an unverified configuration in competition","exceeding manufacturer adjustment or torque limits","relaxing clinician-set restrictions","automatically selecting the most aggressive posture because one measurement appears favorable"],"halt_rollback":"Stop the trial and restore the previously tolerated configuration if symptoms occur, hardware shifts, instruments materially alter the contact interface, measurements disagree beyond preset repeatability limits, or the preview cannot discriminate candidate settings safely."},"baseline":"A fitter selects cockpit and saddle geometry from anthropometry, visual joint angles, athlete preference, and brief riding observation; the position is finalized before competition and consequential pressure, breathing, or power problems are addressed after a race or long training ride.","candidate_id":"predictive_precommitment_correction__sport_science__SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","causal_chain":["A cyclist and fitter provisionally set saddle fore-aft, pad stack and width, extension reach and angle, and contact padding before those components are torqued and accepted for competition.","The athlete performs standardized position-hold bouts long enough to load the intended contact surfaces and breathing posture but short enough to stop safely before a consequential exposure accumulates.","Physical instruments directly measure saddle and forearm pressure distribution, pedal-force asymmetry, joint clearance, ventilation, and power while the intended configuration is actually loaded.","Measured leading indicators and their repeatability bounds are compared with athlete-specific tolerance envelopes associated with sustaining the posture for the planned event duration.","A threshold-crossing pressure hotspot, ventilation decrement, clearance deficit, or force imbalance triggers a bounded mechanical pre-correction such as moving a spacer, changing pad width, rotating an extension, shifting the saddle, or substituting padding.","The athlete repeats the instrumented bout after adjustment; the mechanic finalizes the configuration only when the preview is acceptable, repeatable, symptom-free, and within hardware limits.","During the subsequent long rehearsal or competition, staff record posture-break timing, symptoms, power decay, and any unplanned position changes.","Preview measurements are compared with realized tolerance and performance so thresholds are revised or the protocol is demoted if it predicts poorly."],"cell_id":"predictive_precommitment_correction__sport_science","consequence":"Once the bicycle is finalized and the event begins, correcting an intolerable posture requires abandoning the aerodynamic position, stopping for adjustment, or enduring accumulating pressure, breathing, or joint-clearance problems that can degrade performance or safety.","diversity_from_prior_proposals":"Unlike P1's computational preview of a high-speed running prescription to control training exposure, this opportunity addresses competition-equipment geometry and predicts posture sustainability through a physically loaded instrumented rehearsal. Its intervention changes mechanical contact geometry, and its causal path runs from direct pressure, respiratory, clearance, and pedal-force measurements to hardware adjustment before equipment commitment.","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","intervention":"Before finalizing a time-trial bicycle position, place pressure-sensing interfaces, pedal-force instrumentation, respiratory measurement, and physical clearance gauges on the athlete and bicycle during standardized position-hold bouts. Use the measured precursor pattern and repeatability band to select bounded mechanical changes to the cockpit, saddle, or padding, then retest before the mechanic torques and releases the configuration for competition.","mechanism_mapping":[{"counterfactual_removal":"Without the physically loaded preview, the proposed geometry is judged without observing how its contact loads, breathing constraint, clearances, and force distribution develop under the intended posture.","mechanism_slug":"precommitment_what_if_simulation","role":"Use a short instrumented physical analogue of the intended race posture to preview consequences before final configuration."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without a threshold rule, measured hotspots or restrictions can remain descriptive findings that do not change the bicycle before commitment.","mechanism_slug":"leading_indicator_trigger_rule","role":"Map repeatable measurement excursions to bounded mechanical adjustments or rejection of the candidate position."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without the release gate, an unacceptable but aerodynamically appealing setup could still be torqued and used in competition.","mechanism_slug":"staged_commitment_gate","role":"Require acceptable repeated measurements, athlete consent, and mechanical safety checks before configuration release."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without comparison to long-duration outcomes, short-bout indicators may retain false authority despite failing to predict posture sustainability.","mechanism_slug":"forecast_error_backtest","role":"Compare preview measurements with realized posture breaks, symptoms, and power decay to recalibrate or demote the protocol."}],"nearest_rivals":["visual bike fitting based on static joint angles without loaded interface or respiratory measurements","post-race adjustment after numbness, breathing restriction, or power loss has already occurred","selecting the lowest-drag geometry in a wind tunnel without testing whether the athlete can physiologically sustain it","generic anthropometric fit tables that do not preview the individual cyclist's response to the intended configuration"],"negative_tests":{"intervention_falsifier":"In a blinded repeated-measures evaluation, instrument-guided mechanical pre-corrections do not improve prediction of posture-break timing, symptoms, or sustained power over the baseline fit, or repeated measurements cannot reliably distinguish candidate configurations.","problem_falsifier":"Long-duration rehearsals show that baseline fitting already identifies consequential configuration failures before finalization at low cost, or that short loaded measurements contain no usable prospective signal about sustained posture tolerance.","risks":["pressure sensors or respiratory apparatus may alter the posture being measured","short bouts may miss delayed numbness, fatigue, or breathing restriction","measurement noise may cause unnecessary hardware changes","optimizing one interface may worsen another contact point or aerodynamic performance","repeated fit trials may fatigue the athlete and contaminate comparisons","staff may treat tolerance thresholds as medical diagnoses","mechanical adjustment outside component limits may create equipment failure","athlete adaptation between preview and competition may invalidate the forecast"],"strongest_counterevidence":"The onset of discomfort and posture breakdown may depend mainly on long-duration fatigue and race-specific conditions that a short instrumented preview cannot reproduce, making a conservative long rehearsal more informative than the proposed precursor measurements."},"next_evidence_step":"Preregister a repeated-measures crossover in which cyclists complete standardized short instrumented previews and later long position-hold trials under several manufacturer-compliant configurations; compare the instrument-guided rule with baseline fitting for prediction of posture-break timing, symptoms, sustained power, repeatability, and the frequency of actionable pre-commitment adjustments.","observable_state":"Before final torque: candidate component positions, hardware limits, saddle and forearm pressure maps, pedal-force asymmetry, joint-clearance gauge readings, ventilation and power during each standardized bout, symptoms, repeatability bands, threshold comparisons, mechanical adjustments, and the athlete's accept-or-reject decision. Afterward: sustained-position duration, posture breaks, symptoms, power decay, and unplanned adjustments during the long rehearsal or event.","prior_art_status":"UNSEARCHED","problem":"A time-trial cyclist must commit to a mechanically fixed bicycle position whose contact loads, breathing restriction, joint clearances, and force distribution may become intolerable only after prolonged riding. The position is still adjustable before final torque and equipment inspection, but ordinary fitting does not directly measure these prospective failure precursors while the intended geometry is physically loaded.","proposal_index":2,"remaining_contrastive_claim":"The distinguishing claim is that a short, physically loaded measurement preview can reveal configuration-specific precursors of prolonged posture failure early enough to support a mechanical pre-correction, outperforming visual fit and post-event feedback without depending on a software model for its essential effect.","revision_record":{"claim_changes":[],"conceptual_changes":[],"evidence_changes":[],"operational_changes":[],"parent_version":null,"progress_targets_addressed":["material independence from sealed P1","measurement-instrumentation primary substrate","pre-commitment causal structure","bounded evidence test","authority and mechanical-safety safeguards"]},"schema_version":1,"structural_mapping":[{"archetype_element":"commitment point after which correction is costly or disruptive","domain_realization":"Final torque and release of the bicycle configuration before the time trial; adjustment after the start requires posture abandonment or stopping."},{"archetype_element":"intended action and adjustable variables","domain_realization":"Sustaining the selected aerodynamic position, with saddle location, pad stack and width, extension reach and angle, and padding still mechanically adjustable."},{"archetype_element":"target state or tolerance envelope","domain_realization":"Repeatable athlete-specific bounds for contact pressure, ventilation change, joint clearance, pedal-force asymmetry, symptoms, and power preservation."},{"archetype_element":"predictive consequence preview","domain_realization":"A standardized, physically loaded position-hold bout instrumented to expose precursors of long-duration posture failure."},{"archetype_element":"predicted gap and uncertainty","domain_realization":"The difference between measured precursor values and tolerance bounds, accompanied by repeated-trial variability and a validity flag."},{"archetype_element":"pre-correction rule","domain_realization":"Bounded movement or replacement of mechanical fit components in response to repeatable threshold crossings."},{"archetype_element":"gated commitment","domain_realization":"Configuration release only after repeat testing, athlete acceptance, and mechanic verification of component limits and torque."},{"archetype_element":"post-action calibration trace","domain_realization":"A linked record comparing short-preview measurements with long-duration posture breaks, symptoms, power decay, and unplanned adjustments."}],"substrate_contract":{"counterfactual_independence":"Remove all software, algorithms, databases, and digital control: calibrated pressure indicators, pedal-force transducers, respiratory gauges, clearance gauges, repeated raw readings, and printed threshold tables can still reveal an unacceptable loaded configuration and support the same manual hardware adjustment. Removing the measurement instruments eliminates the essential preview and therefore the intervention's causal effect.","forbidden_channel_audit":"Software may log, plot, or summarize sensor readings, but it neither generates the essential prediction independently of physical measurement nor controls the bicycle. Governance, coaching judgment, and release documentation are safeguards; the load-bearing path is physical loading followed by instrumented measurement and manual mechanical reconfiguration.","primary_allowed_process":"MEASUREMENT_INSTRUMENTATION"},"title":"Instrumented Pre-Torque Time-Trial Position Preview","version":0},"schema_version":1}