{"actors":["Durability-test engineer who owns the gearbox duty-cycle plan","Test technician who configures runs and records thermal measurements","Thermal engineer who owns the energy-balance model and sensor placement","Gearbox design authority who sets temperature, lubrication, and dimensional limits","Laboratory safety officer who controls guarding, coolant, and emergency-stop requirements"],"affected_objective":"Keep stored thermal energy within a cyclic gearbox test assembly inside a design-authority-approved pre-run band so commanded durability cycles remain thermally comparable without overheating lubricant, bearings, seals, or structural interfaces.","arm":"ORDINARY_DIVERSE_P2","authority_safety":{"authorized_first_step":"The test engineer may conduct an instrumented no-article or sacrificial-gearbox bench study using existing approved duty cycles, coolant settings, sensors, and shutdown limits; the candidate ledger may issue advisory holds but may not replace certified protective trips.","decision_authority":"The gearbox design authority approves the thermal-energy band and component limits; the laboratory safety officer retains authority over protective systems; the test engineer may admit, delay, or stop runs only within the existing approved test procedure.","excluded_actions":["Disabling or raising hardware temperature, vibration, pressure, or overspeed trips","Exceeding approved torque, speed, coolant, lubrication, or guarding limits","Using the energy estimate as a substitute for component protection sensors","Changing qualification acceptance criteria from the pilot study","Running a suspect gearbox solely to improve model calibration","Discarding unexplained energy-balance residuals or silently changing the assembly boundary"],"halt_rollback":"Stop the study and revert to the approved fixed-duty-cycle procedure if any protective trip activates, lubricant pressure or vibration leaves its allowed range, the energy balance exceeds its preset residual tolerance, sensors disagree beyond their diagnostic limits, or the candidate gate admits a run that the baseline procedure would prohibit. Preserve logs and hold the rig for design-authority review."},"baseline":"Successive durability runs are scheduled using a fixed cooldown interval and one or more instantaneous casing or lubricant-temperature readings. These observations do not maintain a boundary-wide estimate of thermal energy retained in gears, shafts, bearings, lubricant, and housing from prior cycles.","candidate_id":"stock_flow_accumulation_control__engineering_design__ORDINARY_DIVERSE_P2","causal_chain":["Friction, lubricant shear, bearing losses, and heat conducted from adjacent driven equipment add energy to the bounded gearbox during each duty cycle.","Coolant extraction, convection, radiation, lubricant circulation across the boundary, and conductive transfer to the test frame remove or relocate energy at different rates and delays.","A casing thermocouple and elapsed cooldown time report local state or time since inflow, not the total thermal-energy stock distributed across internal components.","When cycle-integrated heat generation exceeds removal, retained energy rises across runs even if the observed casing temperature temporarily falls during redistribution.","A reconciled energy-stock estimate makes inter-cycle carryover explicit and gates the next run until the estimated stock and critical component bounds enter the approved band.","Post-hold measurements and coolant calorimetry test whether stored energy declines as predicted and whether apparent clearance is actually transfer into the frame, lubricant circuit, or another excluded reservoir.","The design authority may retune or retire the advisory control only after repeated bounded tests show reconciled stock and turnover remaining within the intended band."],"cell_id":"stock_flow_accumulation_control__engineering_design","consequence":"An admitted run can begin with hidden internal heat that changes lubricant viscosity, bearing clearance, seal conditions, and thermal alignment, confounding the intended test state or approaching equipment limits; unnecessary holds can also reduce test availability or cool the assembly below its specified starting band.","diversity_from_prior_proposals":"This opportunity controls accumulated thermal energy in cyclic rotating machinery through run admission and heat-clearance levers. Its affected objective, physical stock, intervention, actors, and heat-generation-to-test-state causal path are distinct from retained-material moisture control during composite manufacture.","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","intervention":"Install an advisory thermal-energy ledger and pre-run admission gate for a bounded gearbox assembly. Estimate kilojoules stored relative to a defined reference state in gears, shafts, bearings, lubricant, and housing; integrate modeled mechanical-loss inputs and measured coolant, lubricant, convective, radiative, and conductive outputs over each run and cooldown window; reconcile the result against distributed temperature observations; and retain uncertainty and residual terms. If the approved warning threshold is reached, delay the next run or apply an already approved lever such as lower duty-cycle inflow, increased permitted coolant flow, or a monitored soak. Admit a run only when the estimate, uncertainty bound, critical sensor limits, and baseline safety conditions all satisfy design-authority rules.","mechanism_mapping":[{"counterfactual_removal":"Without reconciliation, modeled friction losses and measured coolant removal can appear plausible while observed component-temperature changes leave a material portion of the stored energy unexplained.","mechanism_slug":"stock_flow_balance_reconciliation","role":"Compares changes in the assembly enthalpy estimate with integrated heat generation, heat rejection, boundary transfer, and measurement residuals in consistent energy units."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without adjustment of a net-flow lever, the ledger would describe inter-cycle heating without altering its trajectory.","mechanism_slug":"net_flow_lever_adjustment","role":"Uses approved duty-cycle reduction, coolant adjustment, or inter-run soak to reduce heat inflow or increase heat outflow."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without a stock threshold, local temperatures can be individually acceptable while the assembly carries enough distributed energy to make the next cycle unsuitable.","mechanism_slug":"accumulation_threshold_alert","role":"Applies warning and run-admission bands to stored energy and its uncertainty while preserving all component-specific trip limits."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without turnover estimation, a brief surface-temperature decline could be interpreted as adequate cooling despite continued heat release from gears, shafts, or bearings.","mechanism_slug":"clearance_turnover_tuning","role":"Uses repeated cooldown observations to characterize heat-clearance lag and select the review interval."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without probes for coupled reservoirs, apparent gearbox cooling could merely represent transfer into the test frame, lubricant circuit, coupling, or motor interface.","mechanism_slug":"hidden_accumulation_probe","role":"Tracks boundary-interface temperatures and coolant or lubricant energy transfer to expose displaced heat."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without delay compensation, the controller could repeatedly extend cooling or admit a run before internal temperatures equilibrate.","mechanism_slug":"delay_compensated_control","role":"Requires a specified settling interval and lag-aware prediction before interpreting sensor changes or changing the admission decision."}],"nearest_rivals":["A fixed inter-run cooldown interval, which does not account for different starting states, duty-cycle losses, or cooling conditions","A single casing-temperature gate, which observes a local temperature rather than boundary-wide stored thermal energy","Independent component high-temperature trips, which protect against immediate limit violations but do not govern inter-cycle energy carryover","A steady-state thermal model, which may estimate equilibrium temperatures without reconciling transient stock changes across successive runs"],"negative_tests":{"intervention_falsifier":"Across preregistered approved duty-cycle and cooldown sequences, falsify the candidate for this use if its predicted change in stored energy does not reconcile with distributed temperature and coolant-calorimetry observations within the preset tolerance, if it fails to distinguish intentionally varied carryover states, or if its admission decisions provide no repeatable information beyond the baseline sensors and fixed cooldown rule.","problem_falsifier":"The problem framing is falsified if the bounded assembly has no consequential inter-cycle thermal carryover, a single contemporaneous measurement uniquely bounds all relevant internal thermal states across approved histories, or observed state changes do not require integration of heat inflow and removal over time.","risks":["A lumped-capacitance model may hide internal gradients in gears, bearings, or shafts.","Mechanical-loss estimates may vary with lubricant viscosity, wear, alignment, and load history.","Coolant calorimetry may be biased by flow-meter error, heat exchange outside the chosen boundary, or sensor lag.","Additional sensors or wiring could affect guarding, balance, sealing, or heat transfer.","An overly conservative uncertainty bound could create unnecessary test holds.","Operators may alter recorded cooldown or ambient conditions to avoid an advisory hold.","Heat may be displaced into the frame, coupling, motor, or external lubricant circuit and later return to the gearbox.","The control could create oscillatory scheduling if thresholds ignore thermal delays and measurement noise."],"strongest_counterevidence":"If an existing protective sensor or validated state estimator already bounds every relevant internal temperature and retained-energy state across all approved duty histories, and fixed cooldown decisions remain identical when boundary-wide heat flows are measured, the proposed stock ledger is unnecessary for run admission."},"next_evidence_step":"Run a bounded bench study with preregistered gearbox boundary, reference temperature, component heat capacities, approved stock band, uncertainty rule, settling interval, and residual tolerance. Apply several existing approved run-and-cooldown sequences to a sacrificial or non-qualification assembly, recording distributed temperatures, torque and speed histories, lubricant state, coolant flow and temperature rise, and interface temperatures. Compare observed energy-state changes with the net-flow ledger and baseline admission rule without modifying protective trips or qualification criteria.","observable_state":"At each run boundary and scheduled cooldown review, the ledger reports estimated kilojoules stored in the defined gearbox assembly relative to the reference state, uncertainty interval, change since the preceding review, integrated heat generated and removed, transfer estimates at each boundary, unexplained residual, position relative to warning and admission bands, critical sensor states, and the current admit-hold recommendation.","prior_art_status":"UNSEARCHED","problem":"In cyclic gearbox durability testing, thermal energy can persist in gears, shafts, bearings, lubricant, and housing between commanded runs. A fixed cooldown clock or local surface-temperature reading can appear acceptable while internal reservoirs retain and later redistribute heat. Without separating stored energy from heat-generation and heat-removal rates, successive runs may begin from materially different thermal states even though each visible flow or point measurement satisfies its local rule.","proposal_index":2,"remaining_contrastive_claim":"For a cyclic gearbox with delayed internal heat redistribution, a boundary-defined and reconciled thermal-energy estimate can be tested for whether it changes pre-run admission decisions relative to fixed cooldown timing and local-temperature gates alone.","revision_record":{"claim_changes":["Initial version makes no claim of novelty, prevalence, demand, or effect size.","The contrastive claim is restricted to a testable difference in pre-run admission decisions."],"conceptual_changes":["Initial proposal instantiates the archetype as retained thermal energy in a cyclic gearbox assembly.","The stock is expressed in kilojoules relative to a defined reference state and separated from heat-flow rates and local temperatures."],"evidence_changes":["No prior-art search or external evidence is asserted.","Evidence is limited to a preregistered, non-qualification bench reconciliation study."],"operational_changes":["Initial operation is advisory and preserves all existing protective trips and baseline prohibitions.","Only already approved duty-cycle, cooling, and soak levers may be exercised."],"parent_version":null,"progress_targets_addressed":["Persistent stock, unit, boundary, owner, measurements, and cadence specified","Heat inflow, removal, transfer, leakage-equivalent, and residual paths enumerated","Target bands, delays, hidden reservoirs, and intervention levers specified","Authority, exclusions, rollback, falsifiers, risks, and bounded evidence step specified"]},"schema_version":1,"structural_mapping":[{"archetype_element":"Persistent stock with a defined unit, boundary, owner, source, and cadence","domain_realization":"Kilojoules of thermal energy above a reference state within the gears, shafts, bearings, lubricant, and housing of the gearbox boundary, owned by the durability-test engineer and reviewed before and after each run and at scheduled cooldown intervals."},{"archetype_element":"Inflows","domain_realization":"Gear-mesh friction, bearing losses, lubricant shear, seal friction, and conducted heat from the drive coupling or adjacent equipment."},{"archetype_element":"Outflow and clearance","domain_realization":"Coolant and lubricant heat extraction, convection, radiation, and conduction from the gearbox into mounts and the test frame."},{"archetype_element":"Conversion, leakage, and transfer","domain_realization":"Commanded mechanical work and loss mechanisms convert input energy to heat; energy transfers among gears, shafts, lubricant, housing, frame, motor interface, and external fluid circuits across the accounting boundary."},{"archetype_element":"Net-flow balance and residual","domain_realization":"Change in estimated assembly enthalpy is compared with integrated mechanical-loss heat input minus measured or modeled heat rejection and boundary transfer, preserving disagreement as an explicit residual."},{"archetype_element":"Target band and thresholds","domain_realization":"A design-authority-approved pre-run energy band and warning ceiling, combined with component temperature, lubricant, and lower starting-state limits."},{"archetype_element":"Intervention levers","domain_realization":"Delay the next run, reduce an approved duty-cycle heat input, increase cooling within approved settings, or hold for monitored thermal equilibration."},{"archetype_element":"Delays and nonlinear behavior","domain_realization":"Internal conduction causes surface and core temperatures to lag; lubricant viscosity changes heat generation and transport; cooling effectiveness varies with temperature difference and flow."},{"archetype_element":"Hidden and coupled stocks","domain_realization":"Gear cores, shaft interiors, bearings, lubricant volume, mounts, frame, coupling, motor interface, and external coolant or lubricant circuits are monitored for delayed storage or displacement."},{"archetype_element":"Retuning and retirement","domain_realization":"The gearbox design authority may change the energy band, cadence, or advisory status only after repeated bounded tests demonstrate reconciled turnover and stable operation within existing safety limits."}],"title":"Thermal-Energy Carryover Ledger and Run-Admission Gate for Cyclic Gearbox Testing","version":0}